This Football Blog

Well, I’m right up against the start of the games once again. So I’ll just say Merry Christmas, enjoy the games and, uh, here’s what I see going down in week sixteen.

Atlanta (+3) at Tampa Bay
Forget Tampa Bay’s crushing defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots last week. I don’t mean to suggest that game was some kind of freak event or anything. It wasn’t, but it was more about the champs coming on than the Bucs faltering. Thing is, the Falcons aren’t the Patriots. Or anything like them. The Falcons are pretenders. They’ve been unable to win tough games all season long, which is why they’re virtually eliminated from the playoffs already. Virtual takes another step toward actual here as Cadillac Williams puts up all the yards against Atlanta’s weak pass D that he failed to put up against the Patriots’ much improved defensive unit a week ago, and the Bucs cruise to victory by a touchdown or more.

Buffalo (+13.5) at Cincinnati
Oh, to be Kelly Holcomb. Kelly lands back under center for the Bills, in place of gimpy J.P. Losman, just in time for a visit to Cincinnati. And the Bengals will be playing hard with the knowledge that they can still grab the conference two seed and a first-round playoff bye if the Broncos falter this week or next. (The chances of the Broncos losing this week are nil, but the Bengals need to win out and hope Denver drops its season closer in San Diego to get the bye.) Fortunately for Kelly, the Bengals D is no great shakes. Cincy’s pass D is ranked 21st in the league. It gives up about 210 yards a game. So it’s unlikely Kelly will take much punishment unless his team falls way behind early and he ends up having to throw on every down. And that, unfortunately for Kelly, seems likely. Cincinnati has been scoring on the order of 28 points per game. Buffalo’s D has been giving up 22. And on the other side of the ball, although Cincy’s D gives up almost 20, Buffalo’s offense only manages about 15. Even if you don’t allow for the fact that the Bills have completely fallen apart over the past several weeks (they haven’t won a game since week 10) while the Bengals have been playing about the best football of their season, that’s a pretty significant differential (works out to about seven and a half points per game). Work in the differences in where each team is at, what’s at stake for the Bengals and where the game’s being played, and it seems to me you’ve got a Cincinnati victory by two touchdowns or more on the way.

Dallas (+5) at Carolina
The Panthers have most certainly run hot and cold this season, but they’re still out in front in the race for the NFC South crown (a race that probably won’t be over until next week), and they’ve still got a chance (albeit a slim one) of earning the NFC two seed and a first-round playoff bye. The Cowboys have run boiling and freezing this season, and they’re all but finished in terms of playoff contention (a loss here would all but end their hopes). The Boys, whom I thought had a chance at making the Super Bowl a couple of weeks back, just don’t to have what it takes to win the big ones. Their offensive line keeps letting opposing defenders into the backfield, and Drew Bledsoe, while he may be many things, is not a guy who consistently performs well under that kind of pressure. And Drew’s surely gonna feel some pressure this weekend. While the run D may have been the biggest factor in the Panthers’ defensive success this season, the pass D has help up pretty well, surrendering only about 192 yards per game (and 6.23 per carry, which is the third best average in the league). And if you can’t run effectively (which Dallas won’t be able to do against a Carolina D that gives up only 3.5 yards per carry), at some point you’ve gotta go to the air. When the Cowboys make the decision to put the game in Drew’s hands, that’s when things get ugly. I’m looking for the Panthers D to log their 22nd and 23rd picks of the season and for the team as a whole to take this one going away (yes, I mean by more than five and a half).

Detroit (+3) vs. New Orleans in the Alamodome, San Antonio
One of these teams isn’t gonna lose this week, and that, in itself, is an oddity. Which one will it be? I have absolutely no idea, so I’m going with the fake home team vs. the fake football team that’s visiting. And since not even a huge bet would make this game remotely interesting, I’m keeping my money away from it. Besides, it’s probably a push.

Jacksonville (-6) at Houston
The guys on Sirius NFL radio’s Afternoon Blitz keep talking about how Jacksonville could potentially lost both of the last two “cupcake” games on its schedule. I agree in theory. Adam Schein is certainly correct when he points out that the Jags offense has been awful and getting worse since Byron Leftwich went down with an injury a few weeks back. And losing next week to the Titans? That’s a possibility (and an awful one if you’re a Pittsburgh Steelers fan as it would probably create the three-way tie that would kick Pittsburgh out of the playoffs). But losing here to maybe the worst team in the league? Not a chance. The Jags offense should be able to put up at least a few points against the Texans 31st-ranked defense (a unit that allows an average of almost 27 points per game), and there’s no reason whatsoever to believe Houston’s 31st-ranked offense will be able to score against Jacksonville’s D, which is ranked fourth in the league. So I’m taking Jacksonville straight up and figuring it’s probably a win by more like three than six.

NY Giants (+3) at Washington
There’s an idea out there — I’ve heard it expressed a lot this week — that the Giants’ drubbing of the Redskins when the teams met in New Jersey October 30 was significantly attributable to the fact that the Giants were playing with tons of emotion, looking to win one for their well-loved owner, Wellington Mara, who’d died earlier in the week. Nonsense. The Giants beat up on the Skins that day because they were the better team. I’m sure the victory meant more to them than it would have under normal circumstances. And maybe they even put up an extra touchdown or even 10 points because they were playing for the late Mr. Mara. But you don’t beat a team 36-0 on the strength of emotion. You beat a team 36-0 because they don’t belong on the same field as you. That’s as true of the Redskins now as it was then. The Skins, who are 8-6 and exactly one loss away from being officially eliminated from playoff contention, simply aren’t for real this season (and they likely won’t be for real until Mark Brunell’s stint under center comes to an end). Do I think the Giants can pull off another blowout? Probably not. This game is being played on the Redskins’ field, after all. And the Skins D isn’t likely to give up another 36 points to New York even if their offense can’t get anything accomplished. I do think the Giants can win by more than three, though. In fact, I’m rather certain that’s just what they’ll do.

Pittsburgh (-7) at Cleveland
So evidently Ben Roethlisberger’s bum thumb really isn’t gonna slow the Steelers down. At least not in the regular season. Whether it’ll be a factor in the post-season, on the other hand, is another matter. Well, assuming Pittsburgh even has a post-season. Although the Steelers currently hold the tie-breaking advantage over the Chargers and would have the AFC six seed if the playoffs started today, they do not control their own destiny (as the saying goes). A loss over the last two weeks by Jacksonville (a team that has not been playing well since losing its starting quarterback a few weeks ago) coupled with wins both weeks by the Steelers and Chargers would create a three-way tie that would eliminate Pittsburgh from the playoffs. Weird, but true. What does any of that mean to this game? Well, nothing, really. The Steelers still have to win to stay in the hunt (they’re not eliminated if they lose, but it wouldn’t help their cause) and the Browns will still be playing with all their age-old hatred of the Steelers in mind. And given that the Browns are at home and have been playing hard these last few weeks, I’m thinking Cleveland keeps Pittsburgh’s margin of victory here to more like three or four.

San Diego (even) at Kansas City
Here’s the game of the week, kids. Division rivals going head-to-head in a late-season matchup, both teams knowing that the winner retains a shot at making the playoffs while the loser absolutely goes home. This is what this December in the National Football League is all about. And it’s easily the hardest game of the week to pick. The Chargers are a slightly better team than the Chiefs (breaking it down to the most basic numbers, total offense vs. total defense: the Chargers average 364 yards and 29 points per game on offense, and allow 312 yards and 19 points on defense; the Chiefs average 380 yards and 25 points per game on offense, and allow 347 yards and 23 points per game on D), but the Chiefs are at home, and Arrowhead is a notoriously difficult stadium for visitors to play in, especially late in the season (Kansas City pretty much never loses at home in December). The Chargers also are playing their second-consecutive road game, and their second big road game at that, having become the only team this season to beat the Indianapolis Colts in a very hard-fought battle a week ago. Did that game in Indy rev the Chargers up, or wear them down? Your guess is as good as mine. Still, what sticks out for me in this matchup is Kansas City’s poor defensive stats. The Chiefs D is ranked 28th overall and while that breaks down to ninth against the run and 31st against the pass, Kansas City still allows 4.5 yards per carry. Compare that to the San Diego run D’s 3.4 yards per carry, which ties the Chargers with the Steelers and Buccaneers for best in the league, and you’ve gotta come out thinking LaDainian Tomlinson has a better chance of putting up big yards here than Larry Johnson does. That spells victory for the Chargers, though I expect the decision to come late in a very high-scoring game.

San Francisco (+9.5) at St. Louis
No, I really just don’t have anything at all to say about this game. I guess this is the price you pay for games like San Diego-Kansas City. I mean, the bad teams have to play out their schedules, too. Right? San Fran loses by some margin that may or may not be more than the nine and a half they’re getting (probably it will be by more like two touchdowns) and marches on toward next week’s showdown with Houston for the rights to Reggie Bush.

Tennessee (+5.5) at Miami
The Dolphins are gonna make things a good bit tougher on the Patriots in 2006 than they have been for some time now. Just a season into his NFL head coaching career, Nick Saban has already brought about a significant improvement in his team. Miami has won four straight going into this game and, depending on whether Saban’s friend Bill Belichick decides to rest a bunch of Patriots starters next week (he probably should), could very well end this season on a six-game winning streak. And my guess is the Fins are a 10-6 or 11-5 team next year. The Titans, on the other hand, continue to struggle and are headed into an outright rebuilding period. This could very well be one of Steve McNair’s final games as a Titan. Of course, most of this stuff has nothing to do with this game, but there’s just not a lot to say about this game other than to point out that the Dolphins are gonna win it by seven or more.

Philadelphia (+1) at Arizona
Mike McMahon. Josh McCown. A battle for the ages between two of the greatest quarterbacks in the game. A struggle for dominance between two proud franchises. Or a trainwreck of a matchup between an Eagles team that’s foundering after years at the top and a Cardinals team that continues to find new ways to sink to the bottom of the standings year in and year out. I’m taking Arizona, but only because they’re at home and I have to pick one team or the other. Yeah, I’ll give the point. I mean, whatever.

Indianapolis (+9) at Seattle
There’s nothing I can say about Tony Dungy’s son’s death this week that hasn’t already been said, and better, so I’ll stay out of it. Has nothing to do with this game, anyhow, because the game was a foregone conclusion from the moment Indy took its first loss of the season at home against San Diego a week ago. The Colts, with nothing left to play for (they own home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs and they can’t get that perfect season) have promised to get every active player on the roster into this game (i.e. their starters won’t be on the field for more than a half, and probably more like a quarter). Indy’s left some key guys who were dinged up in that San Diego game (Marvin Harrison, Cato June, Ryan Diem) home to rest for the playoffs. And the Seahawks need a win to clinch home-field in the NFC playoffs. That’s a Seattle win. And, yeah, probably by more than nine.

Oakland (+13) at Denver
How does a team that can’t win with 1,000-yard rusher LaMont Jordan on the field win with him standing on the sidelines, his foot in a cast? They don’t. It’s that simple. The Raiders suck. They need to make major changes in the off-season, including scuttling their coach and quarterback. And they’re headed for a big loss to a Broncos team that’s for the conference two seed and a first-round playoff bye. A big loss. Yes, by more than 13.

Chicago (-6.5) at Green Bay
Although most of the football being played this week is happening on Saturday, the big action in the NFC North doesn’t even start until Sunday afternoon. The Bears go into this game needing a win to clinch the division title (they can also get one with a Vikings loss to the Ravens in the night game). If by some odd chance both the Giants and the Panthers have lost on Saturday (not gonna happen), the Bears also will enter this one with the chance to clinch the conference two seed and a first-round playoff bye. No matter what’s at stake, however, the Bears are simply a far better team than the Packers and should take this one with ease. It will be interesting to see how Rex Grossman fares against a team that’s had time to study some film and prepare for him, and that alone should make the game worth watching (though I don’t expect Rex will get anything like a real test until the Bears travel to Minnesota next week, and probably not until the playoffs). I’m taking the Bears, of course. And given the way the Packers have been playing of late, I’m giving the points.

Minnesota (-3) at Baltimore
Well, Jamal Lewis looks like he’s finally beginning to round back into form. It’s much too little, much too late, of course. But it’s nice for Jamal. It’s helped the Ravens look much better in recent weeks than they had through most of the season. And it at least sets up an outside chance that Baltimore won’t be quite so awful next season. The Vikings, on the other hand, are headed toward ending their season the way they began it, with a horrible thud. With any luck, that helps bring an end to Mike Tice’s stint as head coach and puts the team into a position to maybe turn things around in the next couple of years. For now, all this stuff means is that the Ravens win their second straight game, and their second against an NFC North team in six days. The margin of victory should be something like six.

New England (-5.5) at NY Jets
Consider this: Herm Edwards has said he wants to get Vinny Testaverde back on the field some time over the next couple of weeks, so Vinny can finish his career “the right way.” Monday Night Football would make a great venue for a last tip o’ the helmet from Testaverde. It seems highly likely that Doug Flutie, too, will see the field at some point during this game. The Pats have nothing left to play for (they own the AFC four seed and they’re not gonna do any better than that), and Tom Brady could probably stand to rest his banged up leg before the playoffs get underway. (Plus the Pats backups can probably top the hapless Jets.) Add to these things the fact that Dandy Don Meredith will be spending some time in the MNF broadcast booth, a little bit of nostalgia as ABC bids farewell to professional football. So what if Rip Van Winkle happens to wake up round about 11 p.m. Monday and turns on the TV to see what’s new? Pats win this by a touchdown, regardless of when the offensive starters come out.