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Week One Picks

September 7th, 2006

Here we go. Another NFL season. Another opportunity for me to invest a ridiculous amount of time explaining picks that are sure to lose me money. Another chance for you to make some dough by betting the other way. And, best of all, the bad advice doesn’t cost you a cent. So there’s that. Let’s get to it.

Miami (+1) at Pittsburgh
My take on this game has very little to do with whether Charlie Batch can fill in effectively for Ben Roethlisberger. History tells me he should be able to (’cause, let’s be honest, Roethlisberger’s just not that great a QB), but probably won’t. So what? I was leaning toward Miami here even before Big Ben’s emergency appendectomy. And, look, I’m not one of those people who thinks Miami is headed for a Super Bowl or even an AFC East championship (the Fins haven’t caught up with the Patriots quite yet, no matter what anyone says). Nor am I so impressed with Daunte Culpepper’s quick recovery from his knee injury that I think he can’t help but lead the Dolphins to an opening-day upset. I think Pep will have a fine game — and, indeed, a fine first half of the season, and maybe a bit more — but I don’t think that’s the difference. There are two key factors that I believe will put Miami over the top in this game. The first is Miami’s offensive line, which is heading into its second year under Hudson Houck, arguably the best O-line coach in the game (though New England’s under-appreciated Dante Scarnecchia surely deserves consideration there, too), and that now has free agent acquisition L.J. Shelton at left tackle. This is a solid blocking unit that will give Culpepper and Ronnie Brown the room they need to get their jobs done and make life difficult on Pittsburgh’s D and particularly, as the game wears on, a Steelers secondary that lost a key player in Chris Hope during the off-season and that I expect to struggle a bit in the early part of the season (though don’t get me wrong; I still expect Pittsburgh’s DBs to rate in the top half of the league over the long term). The second is Pittsburgh’s running game, which I expect to have a tough time getting started against a Miami defensive front that I believe will be better than advertised this season. Yeah, the Fins front seven is looking a tad long in the tooth, but I have little doubt that if Nick Saban didn’t know they could stop whatever comes at them, he’d have made some off-season moves to get things headed in the right direction. Plus, I’m not all that sure that Willie Parker is gonna be able to get things done all by himself. I’m one of those people who thinks Jerome Bettis’ departure is gonna be more problematic than the Steelers and their fans want to believe. It all adds up to Pittsburgh’s defense spending a bit too much time on the field, which can’t help but to start to hurt as the end of the third quarter rolls around. And that’s why I like Miami to come out on top by about four.

Atlanta (+5) at Carolina
So now it appears Steve Smith, Carolina’s top offensive weapon and maybe, when he’s healthy, the second best wide receiver in the league (because Terrell Owens is still the best, even if he is an asshole) has two bad hamstrings. That’s not gonna help him run routes. Won’t do much for his YACs either, I’m thinking. Still, you’ve got Keyshawn Johnson on the other side of the field. And Keary Colbert. And you have to like Carolina defense at home against an always inconsistent Atlanta offense. If the Panthers defensive linemen can come out of this game with their knees intact, Carolina ought to be able to emerge with a win. Maybe not by quite six (especially if they have to go without Smith), but a win’s a win.

Baltimore (+3) at Tampa Bay
As you may have figured out if you read my season predictions (below), I’m quite sold on the Baltimore Ravens this season. I think Jamal Lewis was rounding into form at the end of last season. Add a prison-free off season to the mix and, so long as Lewis’ hip injury isn’t a lot worse than we’ve been led to believe, I think you’ve got an elite running back on that squad again. I’m also confident that Steve McNair still has a good-to-outstanding season or two in him. Yeah, I’ve read all about how McNair hasn’t performed well since 2003, same as you have, but I can’t stop thinking about the fact that no one seems to remember that in addition to being injured most of the last two seasons, he’s been playing on completely shitty teams. I think McNair rebounds in a huge way joining a team that was, in reality, a quarterback away from being a playoff contender last season. Plus, Baltimore’s defense is healthy again and ready to make a difference. All that said, I don’t see the Ravens getting out of Tampa Bay with a win this week. The Buccaneers are clearly poised to make Carolina’s run to the NFC South championship a difficult one. They’ve got most, if not all the pieces in place. An outstanding defense. A young running back set to build on his successful rookie campaign. A group of wide receivers that includes a proven, and still viable veteran in Joey Galloway and a third-year player, Michael Clayton, whom I expect to live up to the potential he showed two years ago. And a quarterback who may yet prove to be better than I’d given him credit for. Plus, they’re at home. I don’t expect a high scoring game here. I just expect a Tampa Bay win straight up. Against the spread, it’s a push.

Buffalo (+9) at New England
Look, it doesn’t take a great football mind to figure out that the Patriots are gonna win this game. Doesn’t even take a whole lot of analysis to figure out that they’re probably gonna do it by two touchdowns or more. So what do you want me to tell you? That Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork matches up really well against Vikings castoff Melvin Fowler, who’ll be starting his first regular season game at center for the Bills? That if the Bills attempt to give Fowler any help against Wilfork, they’re gonna end up opening the door for one of New England’s DEs, Richard Seymour and Ty Warren? That the Bills have exactly one guy on their defensive line, right end Aaron Schobel, who can get to the quarterback and everyone knows it? That even if Bills corner-turned-safety Troy Vincent manages to shut down Pats tight end Ben Watson completely (which is highly unlikely, but about the only way the Bills will stand a chance of even keeping things close), the Pats will be able to spread the ball around to their other tight ends, tailbacks and WRs and open up the run game? That there’s no reason to expect the Patriots running backs not to put up huge numbers under the circumstances? You knew all of that stuff already, didn’t you? Or if you didn’t, you at least knew that the Pats are a way better team than the Bills, which is about what matters in the end.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Kansas City
There are only two reasons anyone should expect Kansas City to win this game. One is Larry Johnson. The other is Arrowhead Stadium. That’s it. Everything else, from the miraculous recovery of Carson Palmer and the not-unrelated expectation that the Bengals will again be fielding one of the league’s most high-powered offenses this season to the fact that Cincinnati’s defense is a year older (and that’s a year under Marvin Lewis) and on to the fact that the Chiefs should probably be somewhat worse on both lines than they were last year, points to an absolute slaughter by the Bengals. And still, Arrowhead and LJ (mostly LJ) are enough for me. I’m taking the Chiefs to win, though I’m thinking maybe it’s only by a point.

Denver (-3.5) at St. Louis
How on earth the Broncos are only giving three and a half here is a mystery to me. OK, yeah, there’s the fact that everyone always thinks more of the Rams than I do. But the Broncos are a hell of a football team. And while I don’t expect Denver to be able to stop St. Louis from moving the ball, I do expect the Rams offense to suffer when it comes to scoring. That’s because head coach Scott Linehan has a long, long track record (as an offensive coordinator) of getting teams to the goal line only to pass on three consecutive downs, which results more often than not in settling for a field goal. That doesn’t win football games. I’m taking the team coached by the guy who values the run game. That’d be Mike Shanahan. That’d be the Broncos. And I’m taking them to win by a touchdown or more.

New Orleans (+3) at Cleveland
Hey, everybody, it’s Reggie Bush! And, um, those other guys from New Orleans. You know, the guy with the bad shoulder and them. Yeah! Look, this is all I have to say: Center or no center, the Browns win this one by four.

NY Jets (+2.5) at Tennessee
Quarterbacks, quarterbacks everywhere, nor any one to start. Holy shit. Less than a week after the 100th anniversary of the legalization of the forward pass (the move that made football football), we may actually get an entire professional football game in which no one manages to throw a completion. Compelling stuff here, kids. Don’t blink. I’ll take the Titans to win this one 3-0.

Philadelphia (-5) at Houston
You know, I really do understand the decision to pass on Reggie Bush in the 2006 draft. Gary Kubiak comes from Denver. He’s installed Denver’s system (or he’s in the process of installing it anyhow) and we all know that Gary Coleman could start at running back in that system and succeed wildly. But, shit, man, Wali Lundy? That’s gotta scare the life out of you. Meanwhile, the experts are asking who’s gonna run the ball for the Eagles if Brian Westbrook is hurt. And I’m asking, who thinks the Eagles are gonna run the ball even if Westbrook isn’t hurt? When did Philadelphia ever run the damned football? Donovan McNabb and the gang get back on track here, beating the Texans by seven.

Seattle (-6) at Detroit
So now you’ve got first round receivers being cut, defensive line coaches driving around the city (allegedly) drunk and pantsless, and still no one seems to have figured out that Matt Millen will never, ever, ever be able to run a winning team. I’d say some things about the Seahawks here, but there’s no reason. I’ll save it for next week. For now, I’ll just point out the obvious: Detroit is so outclassed in this game it isn’t even funny. Seattle takes this game by no less than two touchdowns.

Chicago (-3.5) at Green Bay
Here’s what you need to know about this game: Green Bay’s new head coach, Mike McCarthy, and new offensive line coach, Joe Philbin, have installed a fairly complicated zone blocking scheme. They’re asking a line that includes rookies at guard on both sides to pull off those blocks. And while the interior linemen, whose roll in the scheme is key, are all experienced guys (they’ve got seven years in the pros at both tackles and three years at center), you have to believe it’s gonna be tough for those guys to do their jobs and make up for whatever trouble the rookies might experience and hold off what may once again be the best defense in the league. That’s gonna put Brett Favre under tremendous pressure. And, well, we all know what the new model Brett does when he’s under tremendous pressure. Oh, and, Chicago’s D finished last season tied for second most picks in the league with 24. That’s 1.5 per game. I expect them to double that average in this game. The Bears win by two touchdowns (one of them defensive).

Dallas (+2.5) at Jacksonville
This should be an outstanding game. Two playoff contenders (both, I believe, headed for division championships). Terrell Owens back on the field and, one has to expect, looking to make a point. Jacksonville’s estimable defense looking to make a statement by either shutting down T.O. or, in the style of the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX, taking everything but Owens away from their opponents, knowing he can’t beat them all by himself. The main question to answer in sizing this one up regards which typically competent quarterback do you trust to be most competent. I’ll go with the one playing at home. Jacksonville by a point.

San Francisco (+7.5) at Arizona
Hey, look, if the league had asked me what team I wanted to face when I opened my new stadium, I’d probably have chosen San Francisco, too. Look for Edgerrin James to have an absolutely gigantic afternoon as the Cardinals toast the Niners. Go ahead and give the points, because San Fran’s got no chance of keeping this thing close.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at NY Giants
The good news: someone named Manning has to come out on the losing end of this matchup. The bad news: someone named Manning has to come out on the winning end of this matchup. The worse news: there will be trademark Manning whining no matter what. Ah, yes, the Manning bowl. What excitement. What ceremony. What a goddamned fucking drag. My only hope of enjoying this thing is maybe Tiki Barber will have a big game. Tiki deserves all the success he can get. For the record, I’m expecting the older Mr. Manning to struggle some this season now that Edgerrin James is playing elsewhere. My observation is that when you take play action away from Peyton, you render him average. And I don’t think either Dominic Rhodes or Joseph Addai brings to the table what Edge did. So I think Peyton’s gonna have a much harder time this season selling play fakes, which I think is gonna force him to throw into actual coverage more often, which is gonna lead to picks. Starting here. I’m looking for Michael Strahan and the rest of the Giants’ front seven to make it a long night for Peyton. And I’m taking the home team straight up.

Minnesota (+4.5) at Washington
So wait just a minute, here. You’re telling me I’m supposed to be worried about an Al Saunders offense because the Redskins didn’t manage to win any of its preseason games? For real? You mean it? Look, I get being concerned about Clinton Portis’ injury. I get being worried about Mark Brunell’s ability to lead a team through 16 games. I even get being worried about Minnesota’s D line. And, hell, I like Brad Johnson (though I wonder who exactly he’s gonna throw the ball to — Todd Pinkston, maybe? ), so I’m not entirely down on the Vikings’ offense. But it’s pretty clear to me that Washington’s not gonna need to score all that many points in this game, because the Redskins defense should be able to keep Minnesota off the board. I’m taking Washington to win and giving the points.

San Diego (-3) at Oakland
I don’t know. I wanna pick the Raiders here. I really do. And between Philip Rivers’ inexperience and Randy Moss’ health almost make me feel like I could. Or should. Or something. But LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Shawne Merriman and Aaron Brooks make me feel like I can’t. Or shouldn’t. Or something. So I’m going with the Chargers to win and the Raiders to keep the margin to exactly three.

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