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Week Seven Picks

October 20th, 2006

Here’s something you should know: I finished last week 6-7 straight up. Would have been 5-8, too, if the Cardinals knew how to protect a lead (or, you know, kick a field goal). Not sure how I did against the spread. And please don’t email to tell me. I really just don’t want to know. That said, it was crazy upside-down week, which only happens once a season. So I expect to turn it around this week. But you certainly don’t want to take my advice at this point (not that you ever did). Overall, I see this as a fairly meaningful week in the NFL. I expect this to be the week when the AFC East is essentially decided, the AFC North officially becomes a two-team division and the NFC East picture becomes less muddy by one team. Then again, I’m probably wrong about most, if not all of that. Here’s what I expect (and what you probably shouldn’t):

Carolina (+3.5) at Cincinnati
If you’re looking at this game and thinking, “I just don’t see Cincinnati losing three straight,” you’re looking at it all wrong. You’re not alone, but you’re still off the mark. The fact is that Cincinnati can lose three straight, because Cincinnati has already lost two straight, both of them games the Bengals were expected to win and the latter of them a game the Bengals not only should have won but very likely would have won but for one obscenely bad call. And what does any of that have to do with this game? Little, except for the rather remote possibility that the Bengals have been too distracted by that roughing call and all the talk about it to prepare for this game. What this game comes down to is whether the Bengals’ pass defense can get its shit together and find a way to stop a Panthers pass offense that has been on fire since Steve Smith got healthy. And you know what? I don’t see it. I think the Panthers are gonna light it up on offense, clamp down hard on D and come out of this very much a part of the race for the NFC South, while the Bengals are gonna slip back behind the Ravens in the AFC North.

Detroit (+3.5) at NY Jets
So what am I supposed to say about this game? Both teams suck. I don’t care if the Jets are 3-3. They suck. You know they suck. I know they suck. Everyone who isn’t a Jets fan knows they suck. As for the Lions, hell, even Detroit fans know the Lions suck. So why should I care about what happens in this game? Yeah, yeah, it would appear to have implications for New England in the AFC East. But it doesn’t. Not really. Because even if they beat the Lions (and if they do, Jets fans will be talking about winning the fucking Super Bowl, you can bet the farm on that) the Jets will still suck. And they’ll still lose five out of their next nine games minimum. But I’ve got to pick the damned thing, I suppose. So here’s what I’m going with: I’m taking the team that has Kevin Jones at running back, averages 3.8 yards per carry, has found the end zone on the ground six times and is facing a D that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 12 rushing touchdowns, to beat the one that has Kevan Barlow at running back, averages 3.3 yards per carry, has five TDs and is facing a D that has allowed 3.4 yards per carry and just one rushing score. Yeah, I know that’s not the home team, or the favorite, but I don’t care.

Green Bay (+4.5) at Miami
You know, there’s a part of me that says, “You know, Green Bay might just win this game.” And then there’s another part of me that gives that first part of me the fisheye and says, “What are you, some kind of an imbecile?” Then that first part of me says, “Listen here. I’ll have you know that the Packers … .” Oh, hell, who cares. I’m going with the dude with the attitude. Dolphins by six.

Jacksonville (-9.5) at Houston
It’s true, Houston really has managed just under 68 yards per game on the ground this season. Not only is that the worst average in the league, it’s less than seven teams manage in a typical half. Don’t worry, though, because Wali Lundy is ready to start again, so that should fix that problem. Oh, right, there’s also the fact that Houston can’t stop the run. Or the pass. Should be a terrific game. Just terrific. Jacksonville by … oh, I don’t know. Just for fun, let’s go with 41.

New England (-5.5) at Buffalo
I don’t want to give anyone the impression that I think the Patriots can’t possibly lose this game. They can. Hell, it was only six weeks ago that New England damned near did lose to Buffalo. And that was a home game. Still, I think there are a few factors worth considering. First, the Pats haven’t exactly found it impossible to win in Western New York in recent years. Last season, the Pats went to Buffalo in week 14, six weeks after struggling to beat the Bills in Foxborough (the Pats had to overcome a 16-7 fourth-quarter lead to win that game) and walked away with a 35-7 victory. In 2004, the Pats beat the Bills handily in both matchups, including a 31-17 victory at Buffalo in week four. And while the Pats opened their 2003 season with a 31-0 loss at Buffalo, that game is the only one of the last 12 games between the two teams to go the Bills’ way. That doesn’t mean anything, of course, except that there doesn’t appear to be much by way of home field going for the Bills this weekend. More important, that week one game pitted the Patriots against the Bills for the first time since Dick Jauron took over as Buffalo’s head coach. No one, not even the great genius, could have accurately predicted what Jauron’s Bills would look like in a regular season game. Now we know. And Belichick knows. Which means he knows how to scheme. That’s not good news for the Bills. Then there’s the fact that the Pats offense has only begun to come together in any real way. And with Chad Jackson finally off the injury report and apparently ready to make a real contribution, that O likely will only get better. That should work out well against a Buffalo defense that’s been surrendering 323 yards and 21 points a game, and that last week allowed nearly 400 offensive yards to the, ahem, Detroit Lions. I just don’t see Buffalo in this game having anything approaching the kind of success they enjoyed in week one. And I see the Patriots cruising to a 5-1 record and a virtually assured AFC East championship. I’ll give the five and a half, too.

Philadelphia (-5) at Tampa Bay
For two weeks now, I’ve been waiting for Bruce Gradkowski to start playing like the undrafted rookie he is. And for two weeks, he’s failed to do it. This week, unless it turns the refs really do expect defenses to cuddle Gradkowski to the ground, I’m kind of expecting the Eagles and their impressive, sack-happy pass rush to give the kid a proper welcome to the league. I’m taking the Eagles and giving the points.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Atlanta
The Steelers can’t afford to lose this game. Then again, neither can the Falcons. With Baltimore off and Cincinnati likely to have rather a tough time of things with Carolina, the Steelers have the potential, with a win, to make a statement that they’re not out of it yet at the very least. Should Cincy drop a third-straight game, a Pittsburgh win would make the AFC South a three-team division. A Pittsburgh loss, on the other hand, would raise the question of whether the team’s week six evisceration of Kansas City was little more than an upside-down week fluke, and would leave the Steelers, at 2-4, very much on the outside of the emerging playoff picture. The Falcons, on the other hand, need to win both to remain competitive in an increasingly touch NFC South race — the Saints, apparently, are for real, and the Panthers, as noted above, are a different team now that Steve Smith is back on the field – and to demonstrate that they can still beat good teams, something they haven’t done since week one when they surprised Carolina (they’ve since beaten Tampa Bay and Arizona and had their asses kicked by New Orleans and the New York Giants). Of course, none of this means all that much to where this game is going. In the end, it’s not like one team clearly needs a win more than the other. And that sucks, because this game is a bastard to pick and it’d be nice to have something there that made you feel like someone had an emotional edge. Maybe the answers in the stats. You start with the rush, since that’s where it’s at for both of these teams on both sides of the ball. On paper, it looks fairly even there. Atlanta’s offense has the better numbers (6.4 yards per carry and four touchdowns vs. Pittsburgh’s 4.2 per carry and six TDs). Defensively, they flip-flop. Atlanta allows 4.2 yards per rush and has surrendered two TDs on the ground, while Pittsburgh only allows 3.2 yards per rush and has given up three rushing touchdowns. That would appear to be a wash, since in looking at those numbers you’d have to conclude that both teams can earn first downs on the ground. And both need to, because their offenses tend to falter when forced to go to the air. Pittsburgh’s good for just 191 passing yards a game and has scored just five touchdowns through the air, while Atlanta’s passing offense is last in the league with 114 yards per game and three TDs — and both teams allow too damned many sacks. Both unsturdy pass Os this week face solidly middle-of-the-road pass Ds that give up 200-ish yards per game and do a good job of getting to the quarterback (though the Steelers have a bad habit of surrendering passing touchdowns). The trouble is, I think both teams’ rushing numbers have been skewed slightly by their last games. The Steelers offense racked up 219 rushing yards vs. the Chiefs, which isn’t all that shocking given that the Steelers led pretty much from the get-go and that Damon Huard threw a pick pretty much every time he touched the ball, giving Pittsburgh a lot of possessions to extend their lead. The Steelers also scored half their season total of rushing touchdowns in that game. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense surrendered a rather atypical 259 rushing yards to the Giants. That’s 150 more than the Falcons have allowed on average this season (even factoring in the numbers from the Giants game) and 100 more than the Giants have averaged. Now, you can argue that those results aren’t freaky, but indications of what these two teams are really all about, but I’m not buying it. Not without further evidence. Because what I’ve seen so far this season is that Pittsburgh can’t run the ball up the middle, which makes running difficult for any team. And the numbers speak for themselves on that offensive performance by the Giants. I also have to look at the fact that Ed Hartwell will be back on the field for the first time this season, which should make Atlanta’s run D even better. And I have to consider the fact that Atlanta has a giveaway/takeaway ratio of +6 while Pittsburgh stands at -1, which, considering the fact that Pittsburgh was +2 within that Kansas City game last week, says quite a bit. So my expectation here is that Atlanta will be able to both establish and stop the run better than Pittsburgh, which, combined with home field, should let the Falcons escape with a win, if only by a point, and move the Steelers one giant step closer to painful post-championship irrelevance.

San Diego (-5) at Kansas City
As noted just above, the Chiefs took an absolutely merciless beating at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. And I don’t know about you, but I’m looking at the Chargers and thinking they’re a better team than the Steelers. So I don’t know what I could possibly expect except a big (read: 10-plus points) San Diego win.

Denver (-4.5) at Cleveland
You know what? I don’t care how bad Cleveland is, until Denver demonstrates an ability to put up more than one touchdown in a game, I’m not taking them to win any game by more than a point or two. Of course, I’m still picking the Broncos to win this one straight up. I mean, I hate Denver and all, but I’m not crazy.

Arizona (-3) at Oakland
Here’s a challenge for you in three parts,Dennis. First, see if you can coach your team into blowing yet another double-digit lead, only this time do it against the worst team in professional football. Then, do your damnedest to prevent your head from actually exploding this time. And last, try to figure out who to fire next, because the problem certainly isn’t you, right? Or don’t. Maybe just hold onto whatever lead you build and beat the Raiders. By, say, seven. You ought at least to be able to pull that off.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Seattle
Every day, I’m more and more sure I made the right decision when I traded Shaun Alexander away in my fantasy league a few weeks back. Because the more I read about how great he’s doing, the more certain I become that Alexander either won’t see the field again this season, or will come back and never quite get fully healthy. Of course, none of that matters this week. Seattle and its lovely bouquet of wide receivers (sure though they are to wilt as the season wears on) take this one by six.

Washington (+9) at Indianapolis
So it would appear the Redskins are going to be the odd team out in the highly competitive NFC East. And for this, Dan Snyder has mortgaged the future of his franchise. Pity. Colts by 14. (And, oh, Redskins, in case you happen to be reading, one thing you might try — this is just an idea from a guy who’s never been a professional football player or coach — is playing defense. Well, that’s what I’d do anyhow.)

NY Giants (+3) at Dallas
No, Tiki Barber’s not gonna put up the kind of numbers against this Dallas front seven that he’s managed against other opponents this season. (Certainly nothing like the 227 all-purpose yards he logged last week in Atlanta.) And seeing what happens when Tiki can’t carry the team should make the Giants very, very concerned about their long-term outlook. It’s hard to win consecutive road games in the NFL. Harder still when they come against good teams. And even harder when the second puts you up against a divisional rival (it’s hard enough to beat division teams on the road under ideal circumstances). So, ultimately, I’m not expecting much from the Giants here. As for T.O., Drew and the rest of the Cowboys offense, I expect they’ll do just fine against a Giants defensive front that’s still vulnerable and a secondary that remains mistake-prone. I can’t imagine Terrell logs three TDs again, but I don’t expect he’ll need to. I’m taking Dallas straight up and looking for a push vs. the spread.

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