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Week Six Picks

October 10th, 2008

Some of the easy games this week aren’t really as easy as they look. Here’s what not to expect.

Chicago (-2.5) at Atlanta
Look, we can talk all day about the Chicago defense picking on poor, inexperienced Matt Ryan. And it would make sense to do that. Hell, it’s what all the experts are focusing on, so there’s gotta be something to it. But what if the Bears don’t get the chance to make this about Ryan? What if the Falcons are able to settle into comfort zone with their running game and keep the pressure off the kid? And what if Chicago’s offense doesn’t help out by building a lead and forcing Atlanta to play catch-up? I ask these questions because I don’t see any of those situations as what ifs so much as inevitabilities. I see this game as competitive on the scoreboard through the first three quarters, but expect to see a growing disparity in time of possession — in Atlanta’s favor. And I anticipate Chicago’s D wearing down and Atlanta pulling away in the fourth quarter and winning by at least a touchdown. But as far as I know, no one’s ever accused me of knowing what I’m talking about.

Miami (+3) at Houston
At least one of these questions will have been answered by the time this game is over: Is Miami really better than anyone suspected? And is Houston somehow pathologically incapable of winning a football game? I’m guessing we end up with a no on the latter, and a continued “maybe, who knows?” on the former. Texans by a field goal.

Baltimore (+4.5) at Indianapolis
I’m taking the Colts straight up for one reason only. I simply can’t see Indy starting 0-3 at home. But that’s a lousy way to pick a football game. The fact of the matter is that the Indianapolis O line is gonna have a very, very difficult time keeping Baltimore’s pass rush away from Peyton Manning and the Indy defense is gonna have a very, very difficult time slowing down Baltimore’s ground game. Assuming Manning’s on his feet for the last two minutes, the Colts win by a point.

Detroit (+13) at Minnesota
The good news for Michael Crabtree (or maybe Jeremy Maclin) is that Matt Millen’s departure probably means the Lions won’t be drafting a wide receiver at the top of the first round this year. The bad news for Michael Oher (or maybe Curtis Painter) is that for all intents and purposes the Lions are on the clock. Vikings by 14.

Oakland (+7.5) at New Orleans
Teams have a way of over-performing in their first game under a new coach. That’s a given. And, reportedly, the Raiders are planning to let JaMarcus Russell air the ball out a good bit more. That could prove effective against a New Orleans defense that surrenders 245 yards per game through the air. So, you know, the Raiders could potentially make this a game. But they’re not gonna win it, because there’s no chance their D keeps the Saints out of the end zone. New Orleans by four.

Cincinnati (+6) at NY Jets
At what point, Mike, does continuing to employ a coach who is a) clearly incompetent and b) apparently happy to field a team of whiners and thugs, because you’re too cheap to cut him loose become an insult to the memory of your father? For whatever little it’s worth, I’d say it happened about two years ago. Jets by 13.

Carolina (+1.5) at Tampa Bay
This game’s a pure a coin toss as I’ve ever seen. Both teams have balanced offenses that can put up points. And while Carolina’s probably a bit stronger on D, no single measurable is compelling enough to call a sure difference maker. I’d be tempted to hang my hat on home field if it weren’t for the fact that Carolina has demonstrated an ability to win in Tampa. So I’m literally letting a coin decide it. And I’m going with the Panthers straight up.

St. Louis (+14) at Washington
It’s official. I’ve come around to believing the Redskins are for real. That means they’re certain to start losing games. But not until they face a real NFL team, which won’t happen until week nine at the earliest. Washington by 17.

Jacksonville (+3) at Denver
Let’s save some time. Let’s pretend I went through all the stuff we all already know and I’ll just get to the heart of the matter: At this point in the season, I think the odds that Denver’s offense will be able to keep it in high gear for one more game are better than the odds that Jacksonville’s defense will finally kick in. Denver by touchdown.

Dallas (-5) at Arizona
So now we know the Cardinals offense can indeed score like crazy with or without Anquan Boldin. Or at least we know they can pull it off if their opponents keep turning the ball over. And given Tony Romo’s uncanny ability to help opponents stay in games, I’m expecting the home team at least to be able to keep this one competitive. I’ll take the Cowboys straight up, but I wouldn’t give more than three.

Philadelphia (-5) at San Francisco
I have to believe the Eagles are better than their record. And I have to believe 2-3 in the NFC East is more impressive than 2-3 in the NFC West. Philadelphia by seven.

Green Bay (+2) at Seattle
I’m expecting Julius Jones to be a major producer for my fantasy team this week, which I guess means I’m expecting Jones to have a big day for his reality football team, too. Because the Packers simply have no ability to stop the run. Seahawks by four behind a big day for Julius.

New England (+6) at San Diego
Look, I’m willing to concede that the Chargers should be favored in this game. They’re at home. Their backs are up against the wall. They absolutely hate the Patriots. The Pats have been away from home for a week. And Tom Brady is recovering from surgery. But six points? Seriously? The Chargers are six points better than the Pats even though LT’s turf toe is clearly a much bigger problem than he and his team would like to admit? Six points even though the Chargers are looking more and more like a Norv Turner-coached team? Six points even though Randy Moss, Wes Welker et al will be going against a Chargers defense that has surrendered 266 yards a game and 10 passing TDs this season? (San Diego’s defense hasn’t exactly excelled against the run either, by the way. Attrition and sub-par coaching clearly are taking their toll in San Diego) I’m not buying it. In fact, I’m so not buying it that I’m not only taking the Pats to cover; I’m taking them to win it straight up.

NY Giants (-7.5) at Cleveland
Do the Browns need their season to be over before they make a move to Brady Quinn? And if the answer’s yes, then what constitutes over? Will 1-4 get it done. Or are we gonna have to wait until they’re 1-9 and facing Houston? Whatever. Giants by 14.

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