Week Seven Picks
Normally, by week seven you can start to get a handle on the NFL. You know which teams are really good, which are really awful and, more important, you’ve started to get a sense of how the mass of teams in the middle are likely to stack up against each other one-on-one. Not this season. This season any team can be the best in the league in any given week. And any team can be the worst. And anyone who claims to know which is which is either seriously deluded or an abject liar. So why do I keep making predictions? I don’t know. Maybe I think I might get a bunch right one week and get to spend a day or two thinking I’m a genius. Maybe it’s some weird form of self-flagellation. (“You will pick. And you will be mostly wrong. And you will be frustrated. And you will know that you deserve it. And maybe next time you’ll think twice before you order the veal, you heartless bastard.”) Or it could just be that I’m in this shit up to my neck already, so I figure why not just go ahead and drown already. Let’s go with that and move on to this week’s litany of highly questionable pseudo-analyses.
San Diego (-1) at Buffalo
I’ll be honest: I haven’t been able to get a handle on this game. I mean, I think I understand why the Chargers are favored, but I’m not entirely sure the reasoning behind it holds up. The Bills, while they’ve done many things well this season, have had difficulty holding on to the ball. They come into this game with a giveaway/takeaway differential of -3. The Chargers are at +4. That’s a swing of seven turnovers in the Chargers’ favor. And we all know that if you turn the ball over against good teams, you tend to lose games. Beyond that, I suppose it only makes sense to give some weight to recent indications that that Chargers may not be as uneven as they looked in early going and that the Bills may not be quite as formidable as they appeared. But I’m not sure there’s enough evidence there to draw any solid conclusions. Ultimately, I see these two teams as fairly evenly matched. So the question becomes, do I like the West Coast team that’s traveled across three time zones for an early game or do I like the team that has a habit of coughing the ball up? The answer, unfortunately for me, is neither. I’m going with Buffalo, because they’re at home, but I know the mere fact that I’m picking them is probably a sure sign that the Bills are destined to lose.
New Orleans (+3) at Carolina
As stout as the Panthers’ defense is, I don’t believe it can effectively shut down the Saints’ high-powered offense. I do, however, believe Carolina can use its running game to control the ball and keep Drew Brees and company off the field, which is almost as good and just as effective. Panthers win it straight up. It’s a push with the points.
Minnesota (+3.5) at Chicago
Neither team should count on picking up a lot of yards on the ground in this game. But the Bears might not need to. Chicago should be able to accomplish just enough against Minnesota’s pass D to get the job done. Bears win. Vikings cover.
Pittsburgh (-10) at Cincinnati
I don’t know what I like less, the idea of picking a seriously banged up road team that’s giving double digits or the idea of taking the Cincinnati Bengals under any circumstances. My gut tells I’m screwed either way. My head tells me to hedge. Steelers win, Bengals cover.
Tennessee (-8) at Kansas City
Part of me thinks the Chiefs will be lucky to put up a field goal in this game. Part of me thinks the Chiefs will have a little luck. Tennessee, 24-3.
Baltimore (+2.5) at Miami
Yeah, you know what? I’m just not at the point yet where I’m willing to buy in to the idea that the Dolphins have become a good team. I might regret that. But at the moment, I’m looking at the Ravens’ D and thinking Baltimore wins 14-10.
San Francisco (+11) at NY Giants
I don’t know about you, but I’ve got this weird feeling that the Giants may have some frustrations that they’re looking to take out on someone. New Jersey by 17.
Dallas (-7) at St. Louis
Am I mistaken, or don’t the Cowboys run, in essence, the Norv Turner variation on the Air Coryell offense (which is largely a permutation of the Bill Walsh offense)? And didn’t Brad Johnson play under Norv Turner? Moreover, didn’t Johnson earn a ring as the starter for a team running another variation of the West Coast system? OK, so if I’m right about all that (and I’m pretty sure I am), I can’t help but wonder why the Cowboys, who face one of the worst teams in the league (regardless of what they accomplished a week ago the Rams are still terrible) are so much as considering starting Tony Romo who has a broken finger on his throwing hand. Because Romo wants to play? Because the fans want him to play? Because Jerry Jones wants him to play? Here’s a thought: Maybe forget about the peripheral nonsense and focus on doing what’s best for the team in the long term. Or is that just something the Cowboys don’t do anymore? It’s crazy. But not nearly as crazy as you’d have to be to put money on this game. The Cowboys win by seven if Johnson starts, three if it’s Romo.
Detroit (+9.5) at Houston
The Lions continue their march toward perfection. Don’t worry, though, Lions fans. Your team is certain to make the most of the picks it acquired in the Roy Williams trade, right? I mean, what team in football could possibly pick twice in the first round — and then again at the top of the second — and not improve dramatically? Oh, yeah. Uh, right. Sorry about that. Texans by 14.
Indianapolis (-1.5) at Green Bay
If this game were being played a week from now, I might have some remote hope of picking intelligently. One more game and I’ll have a sense of whether the Colts really are turning it around and getting their season on track. But this game isn’t being played a week from now. So that’s me guessing. Just pure guessing. And, as usual, when I have to guess, I guess in favor of the home team. (And this, folks, is just one of the many pieces of evidence you can glean from this blog to support the case that I am not a professional football expert. I’m like the experts in that I have no goddamned idea what I’m talking about. But I’m unlike them in that I admit it. So that’s exciting, isn’t it?)
NY Jets (-3) at Oakland
Man, firing Lane Kiffin sure did solve all the Raiders’ problems, didn’t it? (Certainly solved the problem of Oakland scoring all those pesky points, anyhow.) Jets by 10.
Cleveland (+7.5) at Washington
The Native Americans may be banged up, possibility at some key positions, and they may have had a rather poor showing against a pitiful team in a week that saw Cleveland post its first good game of the season, but I’m a) not convinced the Browns can really have righted their ship so dramatically so quickly, and b) fairly certain Washington won’t drop two in a row at home (though I would have said the same about Indianapolis a few weeks back, so take my opinion for what little it’s worth). Washington by four.
Seattle (+11) at Tampa Bay
The good news for the ailing Seahawks is that backup quarterback Seneca Wallace might not be hurt bad enough to miss another start. That’s right, I said that’s the good news. So what’s the bad news? Well, pretty much everything else. I’m taking the Bucs and giving the points.
Denver (+3) at New England
Seems to me, we’re gonna learn a lot about Matt Cassel in this game. Denver’s defense has shown no ability thus far this season to bring pressure up the middle. Assuming that trend continues, Cassel should have all the time he ought to need to go through his reads, find the open man and make the throw. And while Cassel’s still very inexperienced as an NFL starter, you have hope he’s at a point where he can perform at home under favorable defensive conditions. If he can, the Patriots are in this game. If he can’t, they’re toast. The Broncos are a 4-2 team for one reason: Their offense scores lots and lots of points. And while it only scores through the air about half the time, Denver’s offense sets up most of its scores by moving downfield quickly using the pass. And it’s pretty much a given at this point that the Patriots D is going to surrender scores to a pass-oriented offense. That may yet turn around, but it probably won’t be in this game. Nor should the Denver D’s habit of giving up lots of points change, though, so long as Cassel can do his job. I expect a high-scoring affair that’s still in contention as Tuesday morning approaches. I’m gonna look for New England to come out ahead, if only because the Pats are at home and very much in need of a win, but I don’t think they’ll do it by three. More like one, I’d guess, 31-30.
