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Week Fifteen, Post Thursday Night

December 18th, 2010

Two kinds of games this week: Total gimmes and games too tough to pick with anything resembling confidence. And even in the gimme department, I think we can expect to see at least one serious upset. (And, no, I would see entirely awful Carolina beating mostly awful Arizona at home as a serious upset. Just so you know.) Don’t be surprised if that big upset happens in either Seattle or Pittsburgh – not that I’m actually picking the dog in either of those places. Here’s what not to expect.

Kansas City (+1) at St. Louis
You have to imagine that with the Chiefs battling to hold on to first place in the AFC West (especially since second prize in this contest isn’t even a set of steak knives) Matt Cassel’s gonna be on the field. And if you assume Cassel will be out there, which will help the Kansas City rush offense get its legs back, there’s not much to look at other than the facts that the Chiefs are better on both sides of the ball and that the Rams can’t hold on to the damned ball. I’m taking Kansas City straight up.

Buffalo (+6) at Miami
The bad news for the Dolphins is that even if they manage to win out and steal a spot in the playoffs, they’re gonna have to play all of their games on the road. The good news is, the Dolphins pretty much only win away from Miami. The better news is that the Dolphins should actually win a home game this weekend for a change. Because the Bills aren’t beating anyone anywhere. Miami by seven.

Cleveland (+1.5) at Cincinnati
Colt McCoy is back under center for the Browns. And the Bengals can’t hold on to the ball, can’t stop the run, can’t stop the pass, and can’t get out of their own way. So someone please explain the spread on this game to me. Browns four.

Jacksonville (+5) at Indianapolis
A win here would clinch the AFC North title for Jacksonville. Which is nice, I suppose, but I don’t think there’s a whole lot of chance of it happening. The Colts are getting healthier and they know they have to win this game to have a shot at the division (they also have to know that a loss here puts them in line to miss the post-season entirely, with Baltimore, New Jersey, San Diego and probably Miami ahead of them in the wild card chase). Indy never seems to be able to put Jacksonville away handily, even in their own stadium, so I’m looking for a margin of victory that’s closer to three than five, but I still like the Colts straight up.

Houston (+1) at Tennessee
Even on a short week and on the road, the Texans ought to be able to find a way to beat the foundering Titans. And if, instead, they find yet another way to beat themselves, well, maybe they should see that as a sign that Gary Kubiak isn’t the right guy for the job. Houston by a field goal.

Washington (+6) at Dallas
Normally, I’m not one to second guess Mike Shanahan, but, umm, seriously? The less dysfunctional team (it’s the Cowboys in this case, if you can believe that) wins by a touchdown.

Philadelphia (+3) at NY Giants
In many ways (most ways, really), this is about as evenly matched a game as you’re likely to find. That’s why it’s effectively the NFC East title game. Both teams come in at 9-4. Both are playing pretty to very good football on both sides of the ball. Both are headed for the playoffs. The one major difference I can find is in the giveaway-takeaway differential. The Giants stand at -2. They’ve lost 14 fumbles on the season, which ties them with Chicago for third most in the league. And Eli Manning has thrown 19 picks. That’s tied for the second most in the league. Put ’em all together and you get a league-high 33 giveaways. You shouldn’t be able to keep winning when you’re giving opponents that many extra opportunities with the football. The Eagles, meanwhile, are at +15. That’s second only to the Patriots and it’s built on a league-best 22 interceptions. That’s not good news for Eli and the Giants. And it’s the reason I’m expecting the Eagles to win this game, and the division, by four points.

Arizona (+2.5) at Carolina
This is a professional football game? I guess I’ll take the Cardinals. They don’t travel east well, but they have four times as many wins as the Panthers. So, you know, there’s that. Arizona by a point.

Detroit (+5.5) at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers still have a shot at the post-season. The Lions still have a shot at a top five draft pick. Welcome to yet another season in the NFL. Tampa by a touchdown.

New Orleans (+1.5) at Baltimore
I’m taking the Ravens, because they’re at home and because the Saints’ 30 turnovers on the season make me very uncomfortable. But the reality is that this game could go either way. For our purposes today, let’s say Baltimore by a point.

Atlanta (-6.5) at Seattle
If the Falcons can avoid looking past this game to their home matchup with the Saints next weekend, they should win handily. And until I get some reason to think otherwise, I’m gonna assume the Falcons are 11-2 for a reason (and I know the Seahawks are 6-7 for a reason). Atlanta by 10.

NY Jets (+5.5) at Pittsburgh
This game might not be as easy for the Steelers as a lot of us have assumed. Without Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh could let New Jersey hang around, which is maybe the only time the Jets are dangerous. I think Pittsburgh still comes out ahead at home and working to shore up the two seed (and hold onto their chance at stealing the one seed from New England), but I’m only willing to give three points.

Denver (+6.5) at Oakland
The Broncos are just a painfully bad football team. An offense that would boarder on middling if it could hold onto the ball (which it can’t) paired with a defense than can’t stop the pass or the run doesn’t get you far in the NFL. It won’t get Denver past a solidly average Oakland squad here. Raiders by nine.

Green Bay (+10) at New England
Let’s be honest. The Packers aren’t winning this game with or without Aaron Rodgers. I do think Tom Brady’s no-interception streak probably comes to an end against Green Bay’s ballhawking DBs. But that won’t matter, because whichever QB Green Bay starts is gonna throw a few picks of his own. Patriots by 14.

Chicago (-3) at Minnesota
I’m sure it’s always been Joe Webb’s dream to get his first NFL start on a Monday night against an angry, hungry Bears team with something to prove. Chicago by 10.

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