Week Sixteen Picks
The great thing about week sixteen in the NFL this season is that the playoff picture is about as wide open as we’ve seen it in recent years. Going into the weekend, only four teams have clinched playoff spots, and only one of those (Chicago) has wrapped up a division title. The not-so-great thing about week sixteen is that the matchups look fairly unexciting. With the exception of Jets-Bears and Giants-Packers on Sunday afternoon and Saints-Falcons Monday night, there isn’t a ton to look forward to unless the team you root for has a chance to sew up a post-season berth or seeding. That’s something, of course. It’s just not something that’s gonna make the games much more interesting to watch. Oh, well. More time for playing with those new Legos (er, um, I mean helping the kids with their new Legos), I suppose.
Here’s what not to expect.
Carolina (+14.5) at Pittsburgh
Oh, boy. I don’t know what kind of Thursday night plans you have, but my butt’s not getting off the couch, I can tell you that. Nothing more riveting than a thoroughly rudderless team, probably the worst in the NFL, traveling to face a playoff squad that’s coming off a costly loss and in the midst of a battle for a division title and a first-round bye. Should be a game for … oh, I’d guess about three minutes. Of real time. Steelers by 17.
Dallas (-6.5) at Arizona
I can tell you this for sure: When the schedulers put this one in for Christmas night, they were thinking the Cowboys and Cardinals both probably would be trying to sew up division titles and might even be in a battle for the NFC one seed. They certainly weren’t anticipating a matchup between a hopelessly disappointing Cowboys squad hoping it can maybe climb out of the NFC East cellar and a downright awful Cards team pulling up last place in a division that might be won by a 7-9 team. I’ll give it until halftime, but if this game’s as awful as I expect it to be, I’m cranking up Better Off Dead and calling it a Christmas. Since the Cowboys at least have their moments on offense and don’t quite fumble the ball away every other time they touch it, I’m looking for them to come out ahead. Probably by a touchdown or better.
Detroit (+3.5) at Miami
So if last weekend the Lions beat a better team than Miami in Florida and the Dolphins lost to a worse team than Detroit at home, the Lions should probably be able to pull off the upset here, right? I mean, there’s some kind of weird logic to that, or so it would seem. But then there’s also reality. Like, consider the fact that the Dolphins are 1-6 at home and 6-1 on the road this season. That kind of backward statistic isn’t sustainable over the long term. And while there’s only so much righting itself it can do in two weeks (especially since Miami’s week 17 opponents may not have much reason to play very hard), 2-6 at home at least seems a bit more reasonable. Plus, Detroit’s on the road for a second consecutive game. And the Lions’ defense is one dimensional. So I suppose I’ll take the Dolphins straight up, though I’m not giving any three and a half. In fact, I’m not sure I’d give any more than a point.
Baltimore (-3.5) at Cleveland
The team that used to be the Browns just needs a win to qualify for the post season. The team that wants to be the Browns would love to prevent that from happening. And I think if Colt McCoy is healthy, they’ll have a crack at it. Ultimately, though, I think the Browns’ inability to stop the run upends them here. Ravens grab a wild card berth, winning by a field goal.
San Francisco (+2) at St. Louis
This may very well be the season when a 7-9 team wins the NFC West. Check it out: The Rams are 6-8 going into this game. The Seahawks are 6-8, too. Seattle’s headed for 6-9 (see below), and St. Louis is headed for Seattle in week seventeen. That sets up the strong possibility of 6-9 Seattle squaring off with 6-9 or 7-8 St. Louis with a division title on the line. (We could also discuss scenarios that involve the 49ers, who, amazingly, are still in contention at 5-9, but it gets way too complicated). Astounding. Of course, none of that has a whole lot to do with figuring out how this game should turn out. So what do I propose there? I’m not sure. There’s really not that much difference between these two teams. The Rams do take a little bit better care of the ball, which is something. And they’re at home, which is another thing. So I’m thinking I need to take St. Louis straight up. But this is another game where I can’t see giving more than a point. So I’ll split the difference picks-wise and take the Niners with the points.
New England (-8) at Buffalo
The Patriots are looking to sew up the AFC East title. Pats players also will be taking the field with a strong desire to show their coach that they’re better than they looked on Sunday night. The Bills? They’re just all-around awful. Can’t score. Can’t stop opponents from scoring. Worst run defense in the league. Prone to turnovers. And, OK, sure, it’s a divisional matchup and the Bills no doubt would love to wrap up the home portion of their schedule by winning and making things harder on New England. But wanting to do something and having the ability to do it are two very different things. Patriots win by no less than 20, collect their caps and T-shirts, and head home to Foxborough knowing that the soonest they can conceivably have to play away from home is February 6.
Washington (+7) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars are gonna need some help to get to the post-season, but they can still get there. The Racial Slurs are planning for the 2011 draft (or, more likely, for the free agency period, which is the only place they ever seem to come out ahead). I expect Jacksonville to run the ball down Washington’s throats, which should cut down on David Garrard’s picks. Jaguars by nine.
NY Jets (+1) at Chicago
The Bears are looking to stay in the mix for the NFC seed and a first-round bye (the one seed is officially in play, but Atlanta just needs one win in its final two games to get it). The Frat Boys are looking to play their way into the post-season. And Rex Ryan, apparently, is looking for a hot pair of feet. (Everybody say, “Ewwwww, gross!”) Here’s what I think makes the difference in this game: Mark Sanchez, when he’s under pressure, throws picks. And the Bears are good at bringing pressure and better than any team except the Patriots at picking off balls. The Jets are also playing their second consecutive road game against a tough opponent. That’s never easy. So I’m taking the Bears and giving the point.
Tennessee (+5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs close the season with two winnable home games and a clear path to their first AFC West title since 2003. The Titans close the season with a boatload of disappointment and an incredibly murky future. Chiefs by a touchdown.
Indianapolis (-3) at Oakland
The smart pick here is probably the Colts, who can take the AFC South and earn a spot in the post-season tournament by winning their final two games (and since they close at home against Tennessee, this is the one that makes the difference). But, you know, I’m not sure. The Colts haven’t been able to stop the run this season. And the Raiders will run the ball at you all day long if you let them. Plus, with Austin Collie gone for the season, I’m not sure the Colts offense is gonna be able to do what it wants and needs to do to win. So I’m taking the Raiders straight up, though I’m looking for a push with the points.
San Diego (-7.5) at Cincinnati
Unless Kansas City trips up in a major way, it appears San Diego’s annual late-season charge (see what I did there?) will prove too little too late this time around. But the Chargers are still beating up on the hapless Bengals this weekend. San Diego by 10.
Houston (-2.5) at Denver
Lovely. A team that can never find a way to win hosting a team that always finds a way to lose. I’m thinking this one comes down to whichever offense doesn’t hold the ball last. I’m looking a Houston team that can run the ball and a Denver team that can’t stop the run, holding my breath, and taking the Texans to win it, but only by a single point.
NY Giants (+3) at Green Bay
The Packers aren’t making the playoffs this season (they’ll be losing to the Bears in week 17), but they don’t know it yet. The Giants might yet qualify to play a game on January 8 or 9, but it won’t happen this weekend. Still reeling from their epic collapse last weekend, New Jersey rolls into Green Bay to face a squad that very nearly beat the best team in football on the road a week ago and is getting its starting QB back. I expect to see Eli Manning to throw a pair of costly picks and the Packers D get back to allowing fewer than 16 points a game. Green Bay wins this one by six.
Seattle (+6) at Tampa Bay
For my take on just how horrifically bad the NFC West is, see my pick on the 49ers-Rams game above. You’ll also note there that I’m taking Tampa Bay in this game. That’s mainly because the Seahawks are part of the horrifically bad NFC West. But it also has to do with the fact that the Buccaneers major defensive weakness is an inability to stop the run, which I don’t expect will hurt too badly in a game against an offense with no running game. Then there’s the glaring advantage in giveaway/takeaway differential: Seattle is a -9 with 20 picks thrown; Tampa Bay is a +8 with 18 balls picked off. That’s just not something that swings wildly in week 16. Bucs by 10.
Minnesota (+14.5) at Philadelphia
Seriously, what do you want me to tell you about this game? You know the Eagles are winning it. The Vikings know the Eagles are winning it. There are unknown aquatic creatures that have lived their entire lives at the bottom of the Mariana Trench that know the Eagles are winning. So is the question, “Can Minnesota cover the big spread?” Because if that’s the case, I’ll just point out that that this team lost 40-14 Monday night at home (OK, sort of at home) to a team with an offense not half as potent as Philly’s. So, yeah, I’d say go ahead and give the points. Eagles by 17.
New Orleans (+2.5) at Atlanta
Look, one could go on and on about this game, but here’s what it comes down to: The Falcons execute better on both sides of the ball and they pick off a ton of balls, which sucks for Drew Brees, who’s already thrown 19 interceptions on the season. The Falcons wrap up the NFC South title and the conference one seed with a four-point win that comes down to a key defensive play late in the game.
