Week Seven Picks
The last four games of this week are outright gimmes. The first nine are all pretty evenly matched and tough to pick. So, perhaps more than usual, here’s what not to expect.
San Diego (-2) at NY Jets
I don’t know about anyone else, but the whole Rex Ryan–Norv Turner dustup over who’s been the most disappointing head coach (for my money, the edge right now is on Turner, but only because he’s had far more opportunities to fail; Ryan may well pass him yet) has got me thinking about which of these two teams is the most overrated. I mean, look, going into the season, a lot of people, fans and media types alike, would have told you this game was one with potential playoff seeding implications. As of right now, it appears to me that the only way either of these teams will even qualify for the tournament is if Oakland’s shiny new(ish) quarterback fails to deliver (which is actually somewhere between somewhat and rather likely given the difficulties of jumping out of semi-retirment and getting comfortable with new receivers with a third of a season in the books). Think what you will, but the reality is that there’s no concrete evidence that either squad can beat a strong opponent. The last time the Frat Boys triumphed over a team that one could even attempt to describe as “good” was week one, when they edged the Cowboys (current record: 2-3) 27-24. That win took place in East Rutherford and came only by way of a classic Tony Romo blunder. New Jersey’s other two wins have come at the expense of the 1-5 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 0-5 Miami Dolphins. In their three games against teams with winning records (Oakland, Baltimore and New England), the Frat Boys have lost by 10, 17 and 9 points. Of course, it’s not like the Chargers have been laying waste to the better part of the league, either. Yeah, San Diego comes in to this game with a record of 4-1. But, just like the Frat Boys, the Chargers have yet to overcome an opponent that anyone would describe as formidable. The Chargers have beat the Vikings (currently 1-5), Chiefs (2-3), Dolphins (0-5), and Broncos (1-4). Also like the Frat Boys, when the Chargers faced a good team, the Patriots, they got their asses kicked. So I’ll have to ask you to forgive me if my eyes roll fairly deep into my head at talk of who would have earned what rings where. As for the actual game, well, there’s at least a 96 percent chance that one of these teams is gonna win. Which one? Well, if you were to go by the established pattern, both beat teams with losing records and lost to teams with winning records, you’d have to pick the Chargers. Not sure that holds up here, though, partly because San Diego is one of those West Coast teams that traditionally don’t fare so well when they travel east and partly because the Chargers can’t hold onto the ball. San Diego’s -5 giveaway/takeaway differential is problematic to say the least. Philip Rivers has thrown seven picks through five games, while the Frat Boys D has logged nine interceptions in six games. That’s a tough combination. The Chargers also have managed to fumble away three balls. And while 10 giveaways isn’t a seriously troublesome stat in and of itself (not like, say, the Philadelphia Eagles’ 17), it becomes an issue when you’ve only managed five takeaways, all of them picks. To keep things fairly even, the Chargers will need to capitalize on the Frat Boys’ fairly bad case of fumblitis, and so far this season there’s no indication they can do that. What the Chargers can do is run the ball. The Frat Boys can’t (or at least they haven’t). That means San Diego brings the more balanced offensive attack into this game. The Chargers also bring in an arguably better defense. Those factors should help even things up enough that I expect the win here will go to whichever team has the ball last. I’m going to give New Jersey the edge, but only because they’re the home team. I think they win by a point. But if it goes the other way, my jaw won’t exactly hit the floor.
Chicago (-1) vs Tampa Bay at Wembley Stadium, London
Not for one minute (not one, I tell you) am I buying into the notion that the Bears’ Sunday night dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings makes Chicago a good team. Sorry, Bears, but you’ve given up 19 sacks already this season. That has been a problem, and it’s going to continue to be a problem. Tampa Bay by four.
Seattle (+3) at Cleveland
The Seahawks are facing the reality that 8-8 won’t win the NFC West this year (for a change). The Browns are facing the reality that they’re still the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are also the home team here, so let’s go ahead and look for them to win, if only by a point or two.
Atlanta (+3.5) at Detroit
You have to wonder how many running backs the Lions can lose for the season before their offense becomes problematically one-dimensional. Of course, I don’t think it’s a question we’re likely to get an answer to this weekend, since the Falcons have exhibited absolutely no ability to stop the pass. Take that factor, add the Lions’ D and home field, and I think you get a six-point Detroit victory.
Denver (+1.5) at Miami
I really, really, really need the Dolphins to win this game. Decisively. Because I simply can’t bear the thought that I might have to hear another word about Tim goddamn Tebow, the most overhyped, overrated quarterback in NFL history. And you know when you’re in trouble? When you really, really, really need the thoroughly inept Miami Dolphins to win a game. Because it just ain’t happening. Broncos by a field goal.
Houston (+3) at Tennessee
One of these mediocre football teams is gonna win the AFC South title. And lose in the first round of the playoffs. Hooray! If the Titans has any kind of balance on offense, I’d figure them to take this one easily — you know, what with being at home and all. But they don’t; can’t run the ball to save their lives. And they’re facing a team with a pretty solid pass defense. Still ans all, the Titans are coming off a bye and the Texans are traveling for the second straight week. So I’ll take the home team to win, though I’m looking for a push with the points.
Washington (+2.5) at Carolina
Who throws the most picks in this game, Rex Grossman or Cam Newton? Seriously. I’m asking because the answer is where the difference comes from. My money’s on the rookie. Native Americans by four.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Arizona
The Steelers’ offensive line woes could pose a problem again this week. The Cardinals haven’t shown much this season, but they evinced some ability to get to the quarterback. I don’t think knocking Ben Douchelisbagger on his patoot will be quite enough, though. The Steelers are 4-2 on the season primarily because of their ability to take advantage of weak opponents. And the Cardinals are nothing if not a weak opponent. Pittsburgh by three.
Kansas City (+4.5) at Oakland
The Chiefs can’t move the ball on offense, can’t stop the run on defense, can’t hold opponents to under 30 points, can’t take away the ball, can’t hold onto the ball. So, while I guess it’s fun to speculate, I’m not sure the question of who the Raiders start at quarterback ultimately matters all that much here. Oakland by no less than a touchdown.
Green Bay (-9) at Minnesota
Nine? I’m sorry, but did anyone see what the Chicago Bears did to Minnesota on Sunday night? Anybody? Green Bay by 20.
St. Louis (+12.5) at Dallas
Look, it’s a team even Tony Romo can’t find a way to lose to. Dallas by 14.
Indianapolis (+14) at New Orleans
Here’s another one of those games that must have looked like a surefire ratings bonanza to the schedule makers back in the spring. Peyton Manning playing in his home town against his dad’s team. Maybe it would even be called a Super Bowl preview. Now? Not so much. Just another in this season’s string of dud prime time games. Ugh. New Orleans by 13.
Baltimore (-7.5) at Jacksonville
And the prime time blowout parade continues. I don’t care what stadium this game is played in, the Ravens win it by two touchdowns minimum.
