Week Six Picks
Things are starting to make sense in the NFL, as they typically do around this time in any given season. And the fact that I think that probably just means I’ll be even more off the mark than usual this week. Here’s what not to expect.
Carolina (+3.5) at Atlanta
This game’s been a popular upset pick this week. I get it, too. Because, hey, while neither of these teams has had any success this season keeping opponents out of the end zone, the Panthers at least have been able to put up some points of their own. The Falcons, not so much. And that’s been with Julio Jones on the field averaging five catches per game and better than 14 yards per catch. It would be absurd to believe the Atlanta passing attack can be more effective without Jones. So there you go. Upset, right? Only, I’m not sure passing the ball all over the field is the way you beat Cam Newton and the Panthers. It’s no secret that Carolina can’t stop the run. So if you’re the Falcons, you focus on rushing the football, something you certainly should have the ability to do behind Michael Turner, who’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Assuming Atlanta’s able to keep the ball on the ground, and assuming that while both of these teams have been giving the ball away far too much, the Falcons continue to be slightly better at taking it away, I’m thinking the home team manages a win in spite of the injury situation. Atlanta by a field goal.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
I keep thinking that eventually the Eagles have to stop losing games. But lately I’ve been wondering why I keep thinking that. And you know what? I don’t have a good answer. I do know that traveling to face a well rested division opponent with a solid defense (though the Native Americans run D, which allows 4.3 yards per carry, isn’t nearly so impressive as their 84 yards per game average makes it look, Washington nonetheless has given up less than 16 points per game this season) isn’t what one would call a sure way to get things turned around. So I’m not expecting the Eagles to get things turned around. Not this week. And, given the ineptitude of Philly’s linebacking corps, maybe not this season. Washington by six.
St. Louis (+14.5) at Green Bay
The Rams have been outscored by an average of 17 points per game this season. And now they get to travel to face the highest scoring offense in the league. What more do you need to know? Packers by 20.
Indianapolis (+6.5) at Cincinnati
Well, the Bengals have a defense, anyway. So that’s something. Cincinnati by a touchdown.
Buffalo (+3) at NY Giants
I don’t believe either of these teams is as good as it’s record, which gets me exactly nowhere in figuring out which will win this game. Injuries are stacking up for the 4-1 Bills, and a correction is coming at some point with or without them. The 3-2 Giants, on the other hand, are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Seattle and looking pretty shaky for it. I’m tempted to pick New Jersey, mainly because they’re at home and they really can’t afford another loss in the Meadowlands. But I can’t stop thinking about Eli Manning, who’s been making a living off of incredibly athletic plays by his receivers thus far this season, facing a defense that has picked off a league-best 12 balls through five games. So I’m taking Buffalo to pull off the upset here. Bills by three.
Jacksonville (+12.5) at Pittsburgh
I’m not sure I quite buy into the notion that the Steelers turned their season around by stomping on the Titans last weekend (not saying the win wasn’t impressive — it was — just that I need to see more from a Pittsburgh team that has been anything but impressive going into that game). But I do buy into the notion that the Jaguars are pitiful. So, sure, I’ll take Pittsburgh. I’m not giving twelve and a half, mind you. Ten seems more reasonable to me.
San Francisco (+4) at Detroit
If the 49ers hadn’t just lost one of their best wide receivers, you’d probably have to think they could go into Ford Field and at least challenge the Lions. But San Francisco did just put Josh Morgan on IR. And while you have to believe the Niners defense will manage to keep it close, there’s simply no way I can pick their hobbled offense to overcome the Lions D. Detroit gets to 6-0, winning by a field goal.
Cleveland (+6.5) at Oakland
Yeah, I get that this is the Raiders’ first home game since the death of Al Davis. And Oakland had a big, emotional win a week ago, playing for the first time since Davis passed. That’s nice and all, but the thing is emotion only gets you so far in the the NFL. You know what will get you somewhere consistently? Putting a punishing ground attack up against a defense that can’t stop the run. That’s how you win football games. Oakland by seven.
Houston (+7) at Baltimore
No Andre Johnson. No Mario Williams. No chance. Baltimore by nine.
New Orleans (-6) at Tampa Bay
It doesn’t matter what stadium you’re playing in, you have to be able to put up a lot of points to beat the New Orleans Saints. And the Bucs simply don’t put up a lot of points. Saints by two touchdowns.
Dallas (+6) at New England
OK, if I have to hear one more word about how the Cowboys can challenge the Patriots in Foxborough because they’re rested and their wide receivers have had a couple of weeks to get healthy, I’m going to lose my mind. Yes, it’s true, the Cowboys do have talented receivers. And, yes, the Patriots have given up far too many points to make anyone who roots for the team comfortable about their long-term prospects (things may get better as the defense logs more time as a unit, but they haven’t yet). But, um, the Cowboys still have Tony Romo, king of the stupid mistake, at quarterback. And he’s still playing behind a terribly shaky offensive line, right? Or were they able to correct that significant issue during the bye week without anyone noticing? New England by seven.
Minnesota (+2.5) at Chicago
The Bears have one of the worst offensive lines I’ve ever seen. Their defense has no ability to stop the run. And they’re playing on a short week and coming off a really ugly loss in Detroit. Yeah, you know what? I don’t care that the Vikings can’t pass worth a damn; I’m picking the upset here. Minnesota by a point.
Miami (+6.5) at NY Jets
The Frat Boys have to win this game, right? I mean, they have to. New Jersey has lost three straight; they’re two games behind the Patriots at the Bills in the AFC East. Their players are sniping at each other. Lose on national TV to a struggling Miami squad and things almost certainly will unravel in a hurry. And, you know, much as I’d love to see that happen, it won’t. Miami just doesn’t have the stuff. New Jersey by a touchdown.
