Week Ten Picks
Week nine was easy. Relatively easy, anyhow. I mean, it must have been. I went 11-2 straight up, 8-5 against the spread. Not bad. On the season, that gets me to 90-44, and 62-70-2. Week ten should be easy, too. It sure looks easy, anyhow. But I’ve got this weird feeling that it isn’t. I don’t know why — could be that there are a lot of big spreads; could be that there are a lot of big spreads that actually seem reasonable — but I’ve got this sense that we’re going to see at least three or four completely crazy results. Then again, my gut has a habit of being wrong, so probably not. I’m certainly not predicting anything specific (unless you count taking Miami to win at Detroit, which is probably crazier than I think). Here’s what not to expect — maybe by a lot.
Cleveland (+6) at Cincinnati
Six is excessive. These teams could not conceivably be more evenly matched. And while I don’t think either of them is going much of anywhere in the tough battle for the AFC North — I think Cincinnati potentially lands as a wild card team by virtue of their season sweep over Baltimore, but I don’t see them playing past January 4 — they’re both very much alive right now, which means they both have a reason beyond their traditional rivalry to play their best football this week. To my mind, when you have division rivals playing a meaningful game on a short week, you don’t get a lopsided victory. You get a tight game that shakes out in one of two ways: either it goes to the winner of the turnover battle or it goes to the home team. The Browns do a slightly better job than the Bengals of holding onto the ball, but not by enough that I’m willing to project that it makes the difference here. So I’m taking the home team. But I’m not giving six. In fact, I’d be reluctant to give more than a point, maybe two.
Dallas (-6.5) vs Jacksonville at Wembley Stadium, London
Count me among those who are baffled by the Cowboys’ decision to fly Tony Romo with his ailing back to England to play in this game. I mean, I know Dallas has had a rough couple of weeks, but their losses have come against a division rival (in the game in which Romo suffered his injury) and against the Cardinals, the best team in the NFC. Can the Cowboys really be worried about their ability to beat the Jaguars without Romo? The same Jaguars who score the fewest points per game (15.7) of any team in the NFL, give up the third most (27.9), and turn the ball over more often than any team other than the Eagles (19 turnovers on the season for a giveaway/takeaway differential of -9)? Seems to me that with a pair of divisional games on the other side of the bye and three out of their last six games against teams currently leading their divisions (including the complete season series with Philadelphia, which is kind of critical), Dallas has bigger fish to fry. But that’s just me. And none of it, of course, has a ton to do with this game, which the Dallas defense will control and the Cowboys will win handily regardless of who starts at quarterback. Dallas by 10.
Miami (+3) at Detroit
There are two ways to look at the pair of surprising victories the Dolphins have managed this season on their way to 5-3. (There are probably more than two, but I’m focusing on two. You can write about the other ones on your blog if you like.) One is to focus on the fact that both the week one win over New England and the week nine blowout of San Diego took place in Miami, where the Dolphins also came within a play or two of upending Green Bay in week six. The other would be to consider that the Dolphins appear to have a fairly stout pass defense, which positions them nicely to take on teams like the Patriots, Chargers, Packers and, um, Lions. And while Detroit isn’t exactly lacking on defense either, I think this week Miami takes its surprising show on the road. Dolphins by a field goal.
Kansas City (-2) at Buffalo
Kansas City is certainly the more balanced team in this match, the outcome of which may ultimately determine which of these two teams plays past December 28. And Kansas City is probably the better team, as well. But Buffalo is the home team. Buffalo’s also a team that does an impressive job of wresting the ball from opponents. The Chiefs don’t commit many turnovers, but I think they cough one up here, and it makes the difference in the game. Bills by four.
San Francisco (+5) at New Orleans
The Saints are beatable on the road. But not at home. New Orleans by two touchdowns.
Tennessee (+9.5) at Baltimore
Something tells me the Ravens may be looking to make a statement and maybe exorcise a few demons. Baltimore by 20.
Pittsburgh (-5) at NY Jets
It’s hard to imagine Ben Roethlisberger throwing six touchdown passes in a third straight game. It’s impossible to imagine the Steelers needing him to throw half that many. Pittsburgh slows down a bit (not that New Jersey will have anything to do with that) and wins it by a mere 17.
Atlanta (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
A whole lot has changed since these teams last met back in week three. But the Buccaneers are still the Buccaneers. Falcons by no less than a touchdown.
Denver (-11.5) at Oakland
Gee, I wonder how this thing is gonna turn out. I’m typically not comfortable with big spreads in division games, but let’s be serious. Broncos by 35.
St. Louis (+7) at Arizona
The Cardinals have taken control of the NFC West for a variety of reasons. One of them is that unlike the Seahawks and 49ers, the Cardinals don’t give away games. Watch and learn. Cardinals by 14.
NY Giants (+9) at Seattle
Contrary to popular belief, the Giants struggles are not the fault of Eli Manning. Eli has played pretty well under difficult circumstances this season. Unfortunately for New Jersey, the real sources of the team’s struggles — which include injuries, lack of depth, and in some areas plain old lack of talent — aren’t things that can be fixed within a season. Seahawks by 10.
Chicago (+7.5) at Green Bay
I have no reason to believe this meeting in Green Bay will be any less ugly than the one in Chicago six weeks ago, and many reasons to wonder if it might get even uglier. For score predicting purposes, I’ll go with an even degree of ugliness, which is to say Packers by 21.
Carolina (+6) at Philadelphia
Mark Sanchez isn’t magically going to become a player who doesn’t commit a ton of turnovers. But the Eagles have a weird ability to mask that kind of problem. At least in the short term. At least when facing middling opposition. Philadelphia by a touchdown.
