Week Nine Picks
I can live with my week eight results. Well, on the straight up picks, anyhow. I came in at 10-5 on the week, which puts me at 79-42 for the season. That ain’t terrible. Against the spread, well, once again I got concrete evidence of why gambling is a terrible idea. I went 7-8 for the week, which brings me to 54-65-2 on the season. Ugh. But, you know, things could always be worse. And I’m sure they soon will be. Here’s what not to expect in week nine.
New Orleans (-3) at Carolina
This is the state of the NFC South: It’s week nine and two teams with losing records are squaring off for control of the division, with 2-6 Atlanta looming not far behind. If the Saints can hold on to the ball, they should be able to win this game handily. But I’m not convinced they can do that. I’m taking Carolina to win a tight contest, if only by a point.
San Diego (+1.5) at Miami
The Dolphins defense is among the best in the league at causing and recovering fumbles. The Chargers offense is one of just two that has yet to lose a fumble this season (though they’ve pulled it off in part by having the ball bounce their way on those occasions when it has popped out). One of those trends has to give. I’m going to go with the home team finding a way to snatch one. But, once again, I’m not looking for the win to come by more than a point. Miami, 24-23.
Jacksonville (+11) at Cincinnati
You know, one of these days the Jaguars are bound to surprise some team. And if you ask me …Â nah, I’m just kidding. Bengals by 21.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Cleveland
I simply can’t come up with anything that would lead a reasonable person to conclude that the Buccaneers have a chance to so much as compete in this game. Browns by 10.
Washington (pick ’em) at Minnesota
The Racists have actually managed to string together a pair of wins, which is fairly astounding. I just can’t see them stretching it to three, regardless of who gets the start behind center. Vikings by a field goal.
Philadelphia (-2) at Houston
Last week, I predicted that the Eagles turnover troubles were due to get bit in the ass by their turnover troubles. And I was right. I don’t see Philly solving the problem this week. But I also don’t see the the Texans as a team that can make the most of the opportunities the Eagles invariably present to their opponents. So I like Philadelphia. Let’s say they win by three.
NY Jets (+9.5) at Kansas City
I don’t know if Geno Smith is going to turn out to be a better quarterback than Michael Vick when all is said and done (though I strongly doubt it), but I do feel fairly confident that Vick is the better choice right now. I mean, well, Vick’s the better choice for the time being if you assume the Jets’ goal is not to lose so bad. I guess that’s an understandable goal. Right? So let’s figure that with Smith behind center, the Jets could have expected to lose this one by 14. Maybe with Vick at QB, they cut the margin down to as little as seven. So, you know, sure. I’ll go with that. Chiefs by a touchdown.
Arizona (+3) at Dallas
If the Cardinals were favored in this game, as they should be, it might actually matter whether Tony Romo were going to start. Because it might potentially influence the Cowboy’s ability to keep it close. But Dallas isn’t winning this game with or without Romo. Why? Because the Cowboys don’t win behind Romo; they win behind DeMarco Murray. And while I expect Murray will be more successful than most, no one runs the ball well against the Arizona D. That’s the difference here. Cardinals by six.
St. Louis (+10) at San Francisco
Big spreads in divisional games are trouble. And the 49ers just aren’t that good. So, yeah, San Francisco by four.
Denver (-3) at New England
The only thing that bugs me about the weather forecast for Sunday — cold and windy — is that I’m certain we’ll hear after the game about how the Patriots lucked out by getting conditions that made it tough for football god Peyton Manning to pull off his football god routine. As if that were some kind of legitimate excuse. Patriots by a touchdown.
Oakland (+15) at Seattle
What could I possibly say about this game that you don’t know just by looking at the teams and the location? Seahawks by 10,000 points.
Baltimore (pick ’em) at Pittsburgh
Man, is this AFC North race fun to watch. I expect to be on the edge of my couch from start to finish Sunday night. And I really have no idea how it’s going to turn out. But my gut says the home team evens up the season series, scoring the winning points on its final possession. Steelers, 23-21.
Indianapolis (-3) at NY Giants
I’m sure the Colts are looking to take out their frustration on someone, but I think the well-rested Giants make that a tougher task than it might otherwise be. I think this one is close into the fourth quarter, but in the end, the Colts come out ahead by something like a touchdown.
