Week Six Picks
I’m not getting better at this. I should be getting better at this as the data sets on each team grow to meaningful levels. But I’m not.
In week five, I went 10-5 straight up for the second straight week. That’s not completely awful. But against the spread, I’m only getting much, much worse. I was a miserable 5-9-1 in week five. There’s nothing close to a positive spin you can put on outcome like that.
For the season, I currently stand at 46-30-2 (.603) straight up, 33-41-4 (.449) with the points.
And now I’m staring at a slate of week six games most of which I have no idea what to make of. That always points to great results, doesn’t it?
Here’s what not to expect.
Philadelphia (-3) at NY Giants
Think the NFC East couldn’t possibly be more of a mess? Think again. New Jersey by a field goal.
Arizona (+10) at Minnesota
If the Vikings can’t get their running game going against the Cardinals, it won’t matter whether — or by what margin — they win this game. The Vikes travel to New Jersey to face the Jets next week. That’s a game they should win. After that, though, their schedule turns difficult no matter what, brutal for a team with a one-dimensional offense. So if you want to know where the Vikings are headed, don’t look at the scoreboard late Sunday afternoon; look at the box score. I don’t know what you’ll see there. We’ll find out together. But I am fairly confident the scoreboard will show a nine-point Minnesota margin of victory.
LA Chargers (-1) at Cleveland
The Browns haven’t lost a game in Cleveland yet this season. I’m not sure that means very much. But it’s something. And, you know, reluctant as I am to buy into the Browns on any level, I have to think that if you can hold off the Ravens in your building one week, you ought to be able to hold off the Chargers in your building the next. Cleveland by three.
Chicago (-3) at Miami
Remember that time the Dolphins started 3-0 with home wins over the Titans and Raiders and a road victory over the Jets, and then all the Miami fans decided their team was running away with the AFC East? Wasn’t that hilarious? Now the Dolphins pretty much need to beat the well-rested Bears just to get their season back on track. The good news for Miami is that the Bears aren’t really as impressive as their 3-1 record might suggest. The bad news is that the Bears are still better than the Dolphins. Chicago by one.
Carolina (+1) at Washington
I don’t really know what I can believe about either of these teams at this point in the season. But I think the Racists are slightly more uneven than the Panthers. I think. Carolina by four.
Indianapolis (+2.5) at NY Jets
Neither of these teams has much going for it. But New Jersey at least is playing at home. Let’s call that the deciding factor. Jets by three.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Cincinnati
The Steelers absolutely cannot afford to lose this game. Not only do they trail the AFC North-leading Bengals by a game and a half, the Steelers are 0-1-1 in the division and 0-2-1 in the conference. It’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh climbing out of the hole they’d be in if they don’t find a way to get a win here. My gut says the Steelers find a way to keep things interesting for at least a little while longer. But my head says, “Shut up, gut. You’re stupid.” Bengals by two.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Atlanta
Which defense is worse? No, seriously, I’m asking. Because I really have no idea. Atlanta wins by three, quite possibly with an Arena Football League style score, say 63-60. (If you must bet, bet the over.)
Seattle (-3) vs. Oakland at Wembley Stadium, London
Jon Gruden can’t stop thinking about how during Live Aid, Phil Collins played in London and Philadelphia on the same day. Played a set. Hopped on the Concorde. Played another set. (And then another.) Except for how the music was awful, it was pretty impressive. At least that’s what I’m guessing’s been on Gruden’s mind. It would explain why the Raiders’ coach might figure there’s no reason his team can’t have a nice Saturday evening out in Oakland, catch a red-eye to London and be on the field ready to kick ass come 10 a.m. West Coast time Sunday. Or something like that. Maybe Gruden’s hoping the extra time in California will give him a chance to locate his defense. Barring that, I can’t begin to understand his strategy. Seahawks by 17.
Buffalo (+10) at Houston
If Josh Allen can manage to avoid giving the ball to the Texans defense, the Bills might not lose too badly. Houston by a touchdown.
LA Rams (-7) at Denver
I don’t care where it’s being played, or in what weather conditions, this game has ugly written all over it. Rams by 20.
Jacksonville (-3) at Dallas
Jaguars, 10-9.
Baltimore (-3) at Tennessee
You beat the Titans on the ground. Unless you’re the Ravens, in which case you lose to the Titans by not being able to mount a sustained running attack. Tennessee by a point.
Kansas City (+3.5) at New England
The Patriots defense has shown some positive signs over the last two weeks. That’s fairly typical. New England tends to grow into its D every season. I think the unit is still a few weeks away from really coming together, though. And even when it does, it might not be enough to slow down the powerhouse Chiefs offense. It’s possible there isn’t a D in the NFL this season that can do that. But at the same time, it doesn’t look to me like Kansas City’s D is ever going to be ready to stop any half decent offense. And the Patriots’ O is considerably better than half decent. I expect this game to go back and forth all night. And I expect that whichever team holds the ball last will come out on top. In a situation like that, I take the hosts. New England by three.
San Francisco (+9.5) at Green Bay
Major League Baseball couldn’t have scheduled game two of the ALCS against this dog? Green Bay by halftime. And 13 points.
