Week Seven Picks
I should be getting better at this by this point in the season. I usually do as the stats add up. But not so much so far this year.
I went 8-7 picking straight up in week six, 8-6-1 against the spread. For the season, that gets me to 54-37-2 (.591) straight up, 41-47-5 (.468) with the points.
Maybe this is my week. But it probably isn’t.
Here’s what not to expect.
Denver (-1.5) at Arizona
It’s entirely possible, as the teams with the worst run defenses in the league square off, that neither offense will need to call a pass play all night. And for the Broncos, that certainly would be one way for to limit Case Keenum‘s interceptions. It would also get the rest of us out from under this battle for 2019 draft position a bit earlier, which sounds good to me. The Cardinals are pretty awful, but I still like them to win this game by a field goal.
Tennessee (+6.5) vs. LA Chargers at Wembley Stadium, London
I expect to see Melvin Gordon carry the Chargers for a second straight week. Los Angeles by 13.
New England (-3.5) at Chicago
The Bears are an illusion. New England by 10.
Cleveland (+3) at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers are awful. The Browns are just garden variety bad (which, you know, is actually a step in the right direction for Cleveland). But I don’t think the difference is quite enough to overcome home field. Tampa Bay by a point.
Detroit (-3) at Miami
I wonder who’ll be the Dolphins’ starting quarterback next season. Lions by two.
Carolina (+4.5) at Philadelphia
I haven’t been particularly impressed with either of these teams. (Sorry. I know the narrative is that Philadelphia has started to turn it around, but I’m just not sure I’m ready to view stopping a two-game skid with a win over the Giants as season saving.) But the Eagles are playing at home on 10 days rest while the Panthers are playing a second straight game on the road. And, more important, I suspect Philadelphia will be able to limit Carolina’s production on the ground and render the Panthers offense one dimensional. I think that should prove just enough. Eagles by three.
Buffalo (+7.5) at Indianapolis
I’m sure Derek Anderson will be every bit as good as Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman at getting the snot knocked out of him. Colts by two touchdowns.
Minnesota (-3) at NY Jets
If the Jets can win the turnover battle, they may very well be able to make this a game. But can they win? Probably not. Vikings by six.
Houston (+4.5) at Jacksonville
If the Texans had an offensive line, I might actually be tempted to pick them. (Or maybe not. Maybe if the game were being played in Houston.) But they don’t. And I’m setting the over/under on the number of Texans QBs knocked out of this thing at two. Hope you’re ready to go, Joe Webb. Jaguars by three.
New Orleans (+2.5) at Baltimore
Balance. Baltimore. By four.
Dallas (+1.5) at Washington
Can I just predict a home-home split in the season series right now and avoid dealing with this showcase of mediocrity when it repeats in Dallas five weeks from now? Racists by three.
LA Rams (-10) at San Francisco
I’ll be shocked if this is still a game at the end of the first quarter. Or, rather, I’ll be shocked if I find out after the fact that this was still a game at the end of the first quarter. I know I won’t be paying attention in real time. Rams by 21.
Cincinnati (+6) at Kansas City
This week, it’s the Chiefs’ turn to win the Sunday night game 43-40.
NY Giants (+5.5) at Atlanta
The only thing likely to slow down either offense in this game is the Giants offense. Falcons by eight.
