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Week Eleven Picks

November 14th, 2019

Oof! I should have seen that coming.

Or, you know, I guess I did see it coming. I’ve been waiting all season for my luck to run out. And that’s just what happened in week ten. I manged to go 6-7 straight up, which is half a game better than my 5-7-1 picking against the spread. Not a good week.

I’m still looking OK for the season. I guess. I’m 98-49-1 (.666 — pentagram! heavy metal horns!) straight up and 78-68-2 (.534) with the points. Let’s see how much chipping away at those winning records I can this weekend.

Here’s what not to expect.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Cleveland
I don’t like taking the road team in a Thursday night game. But, oddsmakers’ opinions notwithstanding, the Steelers are just a much better team than the Browns. Pittsburgh by six.

Dallas (-4.5) at Detroit
The Cowboys are going as far as 10-6 will take them. That might be an NFC East title and a first round home loss to the Seahawks. Or it might be eliminated from the postseason entirely. The Lions? They’re going nowhere at all. Cowboys by a touchdown.

New Orleans (-5.5) at Tampa Bay
The Bucs may make this a game, at least for a while. But it won’t hold. Saints by nine.

Atlanta (+5.5) at Carolina
You can beat the Panthers if your ground game is strong on both sides of the ball. The Falcons are strong on neither. Panthers by 10.

Jacksonville (+3) at Indianapolis
In an evenly matched division game, you take the home team. So I’ll probably be picking the Jaguars in week 17. This week, I’m thinking Colts by a point.

Denver (+10.5) at Minnesota
The Broncos are outmatched. By Dalvin Cook. Vikings by 14.

NY Jets (+1.5) at Washington
I don’t know which of these teams is terribler. That’s not a real word. Then again, these aren’t real football teams. Jets? I guess I’ll take the Jets. For no real reason. By three.

Buffalo (-6) at Miami
It turns out the Bills maybe aren’t all that great. But they’ve got to be at least good enough to put a hurt on the Dolphins. Buffalo by 10.

Houston (-4) at Baltimore
The Texans have enough of a defense to make this a game. But the Ravens have home field. Baltimore by three.

Arizona (+10.5) at San Francisco
As long as they can overcome what has to be a mighty hangover, the 49ers shouldn’t have much trouble with the Cardinals. I suspect the Niners will come out sluggish only to pick it up in the second half. San Fran by twelve.

New England (-3.5) at Philadelphia
Here are your big three predictives: Passer rating differential, Patriots +23.1; scoring differential, Patriots +9.0; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +18. Also, you know, the Eagles are kind of an uneven team. If the Patriots can stop the run, they should win big. If they can’t, they’ll win a close one. New England by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+10.5) at Oakland
The Raiders continue to be solidly average. The Bengals continue to be reliably awful. Oakland by 13.

Chicago (+6.5) at LA Rams
This is what the middle of the pack looks like. Rams by four.

Kansas City (-3.5) vs. LA Chargers at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
I’d love to think the Chargers could make this a game. But I don’t. Because they can’t. Chiefs by a touchdown.

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