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NFL 2021 Week Eight Picks

October 29th, 2021

(Looks like I failed to post this on Thursday. But since I called the Thursday night game wrong — straight up, anyhow — I’m not gonna sweat it.)

Hey, I managed to avoid completely embarrassing myself in week seven. That’s pretty cool.

I managed to go 10-3 picking pure wins and losses last week. And 9-4 against the spread. For the season, that gets me to 65-42 (.607) straight up, 42-63-2 (.402) with the points.

I’m feeling pretty confident in my ability to mess things up this week.

Here’s what not to expect.

Green Bay (+6.5) at Arizona
Even considering Green Bay’s personnel issues, six and a half seems a bit much to me. I’ll be more than a little surprised if the Packers are able to travel on a short week, play shorthanded, and come away with an upset win. But I do think they’ll find a way to keep it close. Cardinals by a field goal.

Carolina (+3) at Atlanta
With each passing week it becomes harder to understand how the Panthers opened 3-0. The Falcons aren’t good, but they’re average enough win this one. Atlanta by four.

Miami (+13.5) at Buffalo
If the Bills aren’t the best team in the AFC, they’re certainly in the conversation. The Dolphins can’t really be considered as contenders for worst team in a conference that includes the Jets and Texans. But they’re pretty awful just the same. I typically shy away from bit spreads in divisional games, but not this time. Buffalo by 20.

San Francisco (-4) at Chicago
The Niners aren’t a good team. They’re not even close enough to average for me to believe they can win in Chicago by more than a field goal. But they move the ball on the ground well enough to pose a serious problem for a Bears team that can’t stop the run. San Fran by three.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Cleveland
If the Steelers had more offense, I’d pick them. But, you know. Browns by a point.

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Detroit
Yeah, uh, it looks like the Lions are the worse of these two bad teams. So let’s figure that’s about right. I mean, I don’t think anyone really wants to start examining the matchups closely, right? Philadelphia by three.

Tennessee (+1) at Indianapolis
The Titans are probably a better team now than the were when they beat the Colts in Nashville five weeks ago. The Colts are the same. Tennessee by six.

Cincinnati (-10.5) at NY Jets
The Jets are, um, well you know, terrible. Bengals by 13.

LA Rams (-14.5) at Houston
The Texans aren’t quite as terrible as the Jets. So they’ve got that going for them. Rams by 17.

New England (+5) at LA Chargers
Beating the stuffing out of bad opponents is nice. I mean, it’s what you’re supposed to do. But no one’s gonna take you seriously until you beat a few teams that aren’t terrible. The Patriots have an actual chance of doing that here. And if these teams were playing in Foxborough, I’d pick the Pats to take it. In Los Angeles, though, I’m gonna say Chargers by three.

Jacksonville (+3) at Seattle
You can lose to the Rams and Saints. You can even lose to the Steelers. But you can’t lose to the Jaguars. You just can’t. Seahawks by two.

Washington (+3) at Denver
I’m gonna take the home team that at least has a defense over the visiting team that doesn’t have an anything. Broncos by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay (-5.5) at New Orleans
Tom Brady may only throw a single TD pass in this game. And that might be enough. Buccaneers win a low-scoring game by three.

Dallas (-1.5) at Minnesota
It would be kind of helpful to know whether the Cowboys were going to have a quarterback. Let’s assume they will and say Dallas by three.

NY Giants (+9.5) at Kansas City
Oh, cool. An excuse in the waiting for the experts to declare Kansas City has righted the ship. Home team by nine.

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