This Football Blog

Consider this: Ten of this week’s 14 games are division matchups. Eight of those mark the second time the teams have met this season. And in seven of those eight, the team that won the first round is favored to come out ahead again this weekend. That ain’t happening. Anyone who isn’t brand new to professional football knows very well that season sweeps are hard to pull off in the NFL except for true juggernaut teams. And there aren’t seven juggernaut teams in the league. Indeed, there are no more than two, possibly one, and neither of the candidates is playing a rematch this weekend (in fact, the better of them has a bye). So what does that mean? It means we’re looking at four outright upsets this weekend, minimum, and probably more like six. Now, your challenge is to tell me where they’re gonna happen. I say it’s your challenge, because I’m not taking it on myself. I tried, trust me. The games all came out pretty much the way the oddsmakers have predicted. And I’m just not up for trying to figure out where everyone, including me, has gone wrong. So, you know, here’s what not to expect this weekend.

Atlanta (+4.5) at Carolina
Chances are, one of these two teams is gonna find a way not to lose this game. And since the Panthers are both slightly less awful than the Falcons and playing at home, I’ll take my chances on them straight up, though I can’t see them winning by more than a field goal.

Adrian Peterson (+6) at Green Bay
No, that’s not an error. I’m just breaking this game down to what it really is. And, look, as one-man shows go, you could certainly do a lot worse than AP. Indeed, were it not for two factors — Green Bay’s stout defense and Minnesota’s complete inability to stop the pass — you’d have to figure Peterson had at least half a chance of winning single-handedly yet again this week. Of course, the Packers do have a stout D. And the Vikings are completely awful against the pass (which just happens to play right into Green Bay’s one-dimensional offensive attack). So while I expect Peterson to please fantasy team managers yet again this week (even the best defense probably couldn’t hold him to fewer than 100 yards and a TD at this point), in reality football I’m still gonna take the Packers. And give the six.

Denver (+3.5) at Kansas City
I’ve been having a lot of trouble bringing myself to make the pick I have to make in this game. On some level, no matter what the records and the stats say, I can’t quite bring myself to believe that the Broncos are as bad as they are or that the Chiefs are as … well, as goshdarned average as they are. But what else am I going to go with? Because, look, the bottom line is that while neither of these teams is ultimately impressive in any way, Denver is becoming more than a bit of a laugh. Most telling, the Broncos D can’t stop the run. At all. Denver’s giving up a league worst 161 yards a game (and 4.9 per carry, which is second worst in the league). So even without Larry Johnson, the Chiefs should have a fairly easy time moving the ball and controlling the tempo of the game (welcome back Priest. Factor in Kansas City’s solidly average passing game and the fact that the Denver D has a propensity for allowing passing touchdowns (15 so far this season), and you’ve got yourself a formula for a Chiefs victory. By about a touchdown. Unlikely as that may seem in the inner workings of my brain.

Buffalo (-3) at Miami
Hey, Jake Long, you watching this? Buffalo by 10.

St. Louis (+12) at New Orleans
Hey, Glenn Dorsey, you watching this? New Orleans by 17.

Cleveland (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
The over/under on this game is 47.5. Is that some kind of a joke? These two teams will have topped that by halftime. This is the bet of the week, kids. Between Cleveland’s high-scoring offense going at a Pittsburgh D that’s been tough as nails but is coming off a the kind of performance you can’t hope to repeat in the NFL (and working on a short week, no less) and Pittsburgh’s offense facing a Cleveland D that’s as weak as you’re ever likely to see from a contending team, it’s hard to imagine the total points put up in this match not topping 60. It’s also hard for me to imagine Pittsburgh winning this game by more than a touchdown. So that’s what I’m going with: Pittsburgh straight up, Cleveland with the points, and the over.

Jacksonville (+4) at Tennessee
I’m not sure it matters that David Garrard might be back under center for the Jags. I mean, it’s not like Jacksonville was lighting teams up with its passing game before Garrard got hurt. And given that Tennessee’s run D hasn’t yielded much to anyone thus far this season, I’m really not expecting Jacksonville’s offense to be able to accomplish much of anything in this game. Then again, I wouldn’t count on seeing the Titans put up a whole ton of points either. Tennessee by three.

Philadelphia (+3) at Washington
Man, wasn’t it just like two seasons ago that there was only meaningful question regarding the Eagles: When would they finally close the deal? Now, questions abound. Like who’s to blame? Who should be starting under center? And who’ll be the next head coach? This is ugly. Washington by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Baltimore
Chris Henry a bad seed? Whatever gave you that crazy idea? Jesus, this Cincinnati team can’t get out of its own way. Well, at least this gives the Ravens a chance to take out their frustrations on someone. I guess it’s just as well it’s someone nobody particularly likes. Ravens by six.

Detroit (+1) at Arizona
You’ve gotta figure that sooner or later the fact that the Lions really aren’t a very good team is gonna have to catch up with them. I’m guessing sooner. As in this week. Cardinals by four.

Dallas (-1) at NY Giants
As I see it, this game’s all about running and stopping the run. I don’t believe the Giants’ defensive front, as well as it’s been playing, will be able to bring pressure on Tony Romo. But neither do I believe that the Dallas secondary can effectively cover New York’s wide receivers. So I see both teams moving the ball well through the air. The difference, then, is which team will be able to bring balance on offense. I think it’s Dallas. The Giants have run the ball marginally better than Dallas so far this season (138 yards per game, 4.7 per carry vs. 128 per game and 4.6 per carry — though Dallas has 10 rushing TDs to New York’s eight), but they’ve done it against weaker opponents. The Cowboys D, on the other hand, has proven a good bit more reliable against the run than the Giants D (84 yards per game, 3.6 per carry and four TDs as opposed to 101, 4.2 and six). And, again, Dallas has faced stiffer opposition. I don’t see any reason why I’d expect the trends to shift dramatically in this game. So I’m taking the Cowboys and figuring they’ll win by something on the order of three or four.

Chicago (-3) at Oakland
Here’s an almost foolproof formula for logging sacks when you take on the Oakland Raiders: field a defense. How’s that for insight? Bears by three.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at San Diego
Did you watch that Colts-Patriots game last weekend? Because if you did (and certainly if you caught the Chargers-Vikings tilt earlier that same day), you don’t need me to tell you how this game is gonna turn out. Colts by seven.

San Francisco (+9.5) at Seattle
Oh, boy. Monday can’t come soon enough, can it? Seahawks win. Niners cover. And that’s all I can bring myself to say about this game.

What a week. The good meet the good, the bad meet the bad, and the mediocre cast awkward glances at each other at midfield. Makes for easy picking, doesn’t it? Want some betting advice: Throw a dart. Every bet’s as good as the next this week. And that’s not very. Here’s a look at what probably won’t happen.

San Francisco (+3) at Atlanta
Oh, goody, it’s a stink off. Neither defense can stop anything. And neither offense has anything that actually requires stopping. The home team does have a giveaway/takeaway ratio of plus five to the visitors minus three, however, so I guess I’ll hang my hat on that. Atlanta by four.

Cincinnati (-1) at Buffalo
Nope. Sorry. Not buying it. Cincinnati’s probably a better team on paper (somehow, in spite of how poorly they’ve played), but Buffalo’s the team with all the heart out on the field. I don’t care who’s starting under center for Buffalo, because even if I weren’t inclined to pick the Bills to win (which I’m doing), I’d pick the Bengals to lose. The difference is a field goal.

Denver (+3) at Detroit
I can’t tell you how much time I’ve spent going over this game in my head trying to figure out a reason to pick Denver. Why? Because as well as they’ve been playing, I still have an incredibly hard time believing the Lions are for real. Crazy, right? Crazier still, all that time has been a complete loss, because Denver isn’t beating Detroit this weekend. Because, here’s the thing: neither defense can stop a damned thing, but somehow, some way Detroit’s offense actually has more to not stop. So, whatever, I’ll take the Lions, give the points and hold my breath.

Green Bay (+2) at Kansas City
Pass. No, I don’t mean the quarterbacks. I mean me. I’d like to pass on making a pick here. Is that OK? No. Fine. I’ll go with the team with that knows where to find the end zone. Green Bay pulls off the upset.

San Diego (-7) at Minnesota
I can think of exactly one way that next big thing Adrian Peterson is like every other running back in the NFL: Even he can’t pick up yards if the running lanes aren’t there. San Diego by 13.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at New Orleans
When it comes right down to it, there’s only one reason I’m pick the home team in this game. His inarguably adequate performance last weekend aside, I still don’t believe in Quinn Gray. So I’m taking the home squad straight up even though I halfway believe turnovers are going to kill them. Saints by three.

Washington (-3.5) at NY Jets
I know the Patriots are famous for their focus on the game at hand, but has anyone else wondered if Bill Belichick had Washington’s schedule in mind as his team went about humiliating one of the league’s best defenses a week ago? Wouldn’t it just be awful if the Skins D decided to take out all that anger on the Jets? Washington by 10.

Arizona (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
Yet another game I just really don’t wanna pick. Still like that Jeff Garcia, though. And I’m OK with Tampa Bay’s D. So I’ll go ahead and take the home team to come out ahead by three.

Carolina (+4.5) at Tennessee
If David Carr can sometimes up against competent when his health is at 100 percent, what exactly can one expect from him at 80 percent? Kinda scary to think about, isn’t it, Panthers fans? Tennessee by a touchdown.

Seattle (+2) at Cleveland
I see this game coming down to quarterback and running back play. And what’s insane is the way I see it going. The Browns can’t bring enough pressure on Tim Hassselbeck to shut down the Seahawks’ passing game. And even though it’s pretty clear Shaun Alexander can’t get it done without great run blocking (which Seattle no longer has), he still doesn’t go down unless you hit him, which means the Browns D is going to have to at least account for the run, which means Cleveland can’t drop extra players in coverage, or at least not on first and second down. So my guess is that the Seahawks are gonna be able to score more in this game than the 14 points they’ve been averaging on the road thus far this season. Lot of good it’ll do ’em. I look for Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis both to be able to do some damage against Seattle’s suspect D. Probably just enough for the Browns to squeeze by the Seahawks. I’m looking for a one-point victory by Cleveland.

New England (-4.5) at Indianapolis
Here’s an idea. Let’s pretend there’s a way to discuss this highly anticipated game without getting bogged down in nonsensical debates (I can’t have an opinion on whether the Patriots have been running up the score on opponents, because there’s no such thing as running up the score in professional sports), idiotic and poorly considered pseudo-moralizing (can one more unimaginative and uniformed dolt passing for a football expert write about Colts-Pats as a contest between good and evil, please?), or the psychology behind the issuance, or veiled issuance, of unconscionable suggestions (from sources that include supposedly respectable journalists) that someone take out a hit on the best quarterback in the game (apparently, since it’s the only way to stop the Patriots, it’s OK — I’d love see the gasping, horrified reaction of the national press were someone to make the same suggestion regarding the second best QB in the game, their saintly darling boy, naked butt and rectum and all). You know what I’m saying? Let’s just set all that stuff aside for a minute and maybe talk about football a little. How’s that sound? Not good to the national press. Know why? Because when you start looking at the football aspects of this matchup (as opposed to the pure hype bullshit), it starts to look a lot less even than the press wants it to be. This is a blowout in the making, folks, regardless of what you may have been led to believe, and regardless of the fact that the Colts are an excellent football team, a team that at least 26 teams in the league couldn’t hope to beat. But as good as the defending champs are, the Pats are better. The fact of the matter, and this is where the growing hatred of the Patriots truly comes from, is that a the Pats are a team that 31 teams in the league can’t hope to beat. Look, I agree that the Colts defense this season is better than it was last season. That’s very nice. But the Indy D hasn’t improved nearly so much as the New England offense. Nor has the Indy D changed significantly in the way it’s structured. The Colts defense simply doesn’t match up at all well against the reconfigured Patriots offense. Indy doesn’t put pressure on the passer (which is why the Colts have fewer sacks than all but eight teams, six of which have losing records). That’s a problem when you’re facing a quarterback who already has more time in the pocket than any other in the league. Brady should be able to relax and wait for one of his considerably talented targets to break free. Moreover, the Colts zone defense is gonna struggle to slow down guys like Wes Welker and Donte’ Stallworth, the latter of whom is murder to stop once he has the ball in his hands. If the Colts attempt to adjust by dropping additional bodies into coverage, or by going totally against character and blitzing, it’s going open up lanes for Laurence Maroney. The Colts simply are not going to be able to keep the Patriots from scoring. Fine, you say, but do I really believe the Pats D can keep the Colts offense from putting up points? Not entirely, no. But I think New England’s D as currently configured poses significant enough problems for Indy that it’s going to make it very tough for the Colts to move the ball. Specifically, I don’t think Manning can account for #96. Certainly not in the early going. Linebackers like Thomas, who can show up anywhere on the field on any given play, give Peyton fits. If the Colts come into this game planning to get big production in the short passing game, particularly with Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai leading the way, Peyton’s gonna end up putting the ball in Thomas’ hands once or twice. And when Manning attempts to adjust his game to account for #96, he’s going to start having difficulty with #50, #59, #93 and #75, which will lead to unpleasant (for Peyton) experiences with #22 and his old friend #27. I simply don’t see a way out of trouble for Manning, particularly if he’s attempting to keep up with the New England scoring machine (which is averaging nearly 10 more points a game than Indianapolis). I expect to see Manning make some very good plays, but also some costly mistakes. And in the end, I expect the scoreboard to read something along the lines of New England, 42, Indianapolis, 17.

Houston (+3) at Oakland
The Texans are giving up way too many yards on the ground (nearly 121 a game and 4.6 per carry) to feel good about going up a team that cranks out 138 rushing yards a game and 4.3 a carry. I just don’t see Houston’s defense being able to get off the field in this game, which spells an Oakland victory, if only by about the field goal the Raiders are giving.

Dallas (-3) at Philadelphia
There’s this thing in my gut telling me the Eagles are gonna find a way to pull off the upset here. It think it’s that stupid free taco. (Thanks a lot, Jacoby.) But then there’s this thing in my head (which I really don’t use nearly enough) saying, “No fucking way.” I mean, OK, the Eagles D has an outside chance of slowing down the Cowboys’ run game. And Philly’s offense can probably score a few TDs. So maybe that puts some pressure on Mr. Moneybags and causes him to make one or two stupid mistakes (he’s certainly no stranger to those). But overall, the Eagles don’t match up well against the ‘Boys. I expect Philadelphia’s secondary to get torched on a few key plays. And that should make the difference. To the tune of something like a seven-point Cowboys victory, I think.

Baltimore (+8.5) at Pittsburgh
The Ravens are getting healthier in some key areas. The Ravens really, really need to win this game. And the Ravens ought to be able to beat the Steelers. But I don’t think Willie Parker cares about any of that stuff. My respect for Baltimore’s formidable run D notwithstanding, Parker carries his team to a four-point win.

Next weekend can’t come soon enough for me. In the meantime, here’s a rundown of what you probably won’t see in the near term.

Indianapolis (-6.5) at Carolina
Vinny’s gonna start again. That’s almost interesting. In other news, this game pits a mediocre NFC team against a squad one could hardly expect to get much of a challenge from one of the better NFC teams. So, yeah, I’ll give the points.

Detroit (+5) at Chicago
I have a hard enough time picking the Bears to win straight up these days. I’m certainly not surrendering five points. That said, I can’t really see the Lions managing 34 points in the fourth quarter a second time this season (or really ever in a road game). So I will take the Bears to win.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cincinnati
Three and a half? Seriously? Because the Cincinnati defense has shown an ability to stop what exactly? Yeah, I’ll take the Steelers and give the points. In a heartbeat.

NY Giants (-9) vs. Miami (at Wembley Stadium, London)
What do you figure is more likely to happen in London this weekend, the Dolphins finding the end zone or the FBI finding Whitey Bulger? Yeah, that’s what I’m thinking. Giants by two touchdowns, maybe more if they dig deep into their souls and decide they can live with accusations about running up the score.

Philadelphia (-1) at Minnesota
Tarvaris Jackson not being able to throw the ball ultimately may be the best thing that could possibly happen to the Vikings. Because Jackson throwing the ball to the Vikes’ hopelessly bad receivers is about the last thing Minnesota needs right now. Put the game in Adrian Peterson’s more than capable hands, trust the defense to shut down Philadelphia’s running attack and the Eagles to shut down their own passing attack, and the Vikings should be able to win this game without even a hint of a pass offense. That is, I’ll take the home team to pull off the minor upset.

Cleveland (-3) at St. Louis
Steven Jackson says he’s healthy and ready to start. Unfortunately for him, the Rams are unhealthy and pretty much finished. (Can I get a rim shot over here, please?) That’s right, I’m taking the Browns. On the road. And giving the points. How weird is that?

Oakland (+7.5) at Tennessee
Remember that thing where the Raiders had an impenetrable defense? Yeah, that was last season. Also, Vince Young is healthy again. I’m taking the Titans and giving the points.

Buffalo (+3) at NY Jets
This game likely decides which team plays a second-place schedule next year and which team comes in at third. So, you know, that’s pretty compelling. Looking at the stats, you can only conclude that the Jets are the slightly less awful team. Looking at what’s actually been going on both on and off the field, you have to like Buffalo. I’m going with the trends over the stats in this one. Bills pull off their second straight upset victory.

Houston (+10) vs. San Diego (at a location to be named)
It doesn’t much matter where this game is played. The Chargers are the better team. Moreover, they’re not the team with the big question mark at a key position. And they’re not the team that just had the rug pulled out from under them in dramatic fashion. So I’m taking San Diego, though I’m thinking 10 is way too much for this gypsy squad to give away right now.

Jacksonville (+4) at Tampa Bay
Apparently, Quinn Gray is in his fourth NFL season. Had you ever heard of him before last week? Right. So there you go. Jacksonville’s fine defense notwithstanding, the Bucs win here by six.

Washington (+16) at New England
I think this game might turn out to be New England’s biggest challenge so far this season. The Pats are coming off back-to-back road games, the first against one of the better teams in the league and the second against a division rival that had given them trouble in the past. They’re also just a week away from a showdown with the NFL’s other elite team. Even for a team with the kind of laser focus we’ve come to expect from the Patriots, there can only be so much emotional energy to go around. And whatever the Pats have applied to the games surrounding this one has to come from somewhere. Add to that the fact that Washington once again has a hell of a defense — though it’s worth noting that the Redskins are better at defending the run than the pass, and that the most prolific passing offenses Washington has faced this year, Green Bay’s and Detroit’s, each have scored exactly one third as many passing touchdowns as the Patriots so far this season. Of course, the Redskins offense has been lackluster at best, and their passing game absolutely stinks. That won’t serve them well if they find themselves in a shootout. There’s little doubt that the Patriots are the better team here. By far. But my guess is that the Skins D and the Pats’ schedule will conspire to keep it a bit closer than the oddsmakers expect. I think the Pats win by somewhere between 10 and 13.

New Orleans (-2.5) at San Francisco
Hey, I’ve got a great idea about how the Saints can keep the rebound from their 0-4 start on track: play a team so beat up and desperate it’s willing to start a quarterback with a third-degree shoulder separation. This game should be almost as painful for Niners fans to watch as it will be for Alex Smith to play. Saints by nine.

Green Bay (+3) at Denver
Is anyone in Denver even gonna remember this game’s happening? I mean, unless the Red Sox sweep? I guess that’s beside the point. Trouble is, for me, that the point is me picking against Brett Favre on a Monday night. Against a team I don’t think is all that impressive, no less. Thing is, the main reason Denver’s unimpressive is that they can’t stop the run. And the main problem Green Bay has on offense is that they have no running game. Assuming anyone’s watching, I expect what we’ll see is a lot of Brett throwing balls to the Broncos’ DBs. One of those will go for six the other way. Tack on the point after, and you get the likely margin of victory for the home team.

I hate to say it, but this week has upside-down week written all over it. Big spreads. Everybody thinking they know exactly which teams are good and which aren’t. Good teams lulled into a mid-season sleepwalk. Bad teams itching for one last chance to save themselves. This is when it always happens. So don’t be surprised if you start seeing final scores flashing across the bottom of your screen and they seem to indicate that Minnesota, Arizona, St. Louis … even the Jets have won their matches. And try not to bet real money this week if you can help yourself.

Now, all that said, I’m not picking massive upsets to happen straight up. Because, look, you can’t. I’m gonna pick the games the way I think they’d happen in a normal week. I’m just not gonna be terribly surprised if it turns out I finish 4-10. Of course, that can happen to me at any time anyhow. Here’s what not to expect.

Baltimore (-3) at Buffalo
Have you heard that Ray Lewis has been added to the long list of banged up Ravens? Yeah, that should just about even things up here. Baltimore by four.

Minnesota (+9.5) at Dallas
The Vikings may be one of the most spectacularly unbalanced teams I’ve ever seen. As everyone knows by now, you can’t stop Adrian Peterson, which is why the Vikings have posted a league-leading 170 rushing yards per game and an astounding 5.6 a carry (Peterson’s individual average is 6.3). But what’s truly remarkable about those numbers is the fact that they’re coming when everyone knows you don’t have to account for a passing offense when you play the Vikes. Their receivers stink. Similarly, on the other side of the ball, it’s almost impossible to run effectively against the Vikings (they allow only 66 yards per game on the ground, and just 2.7 per carry), but you can throw it all day long (Minnesota has allowed a league worst 288 passing yards per game). The Vikings D does have a nice nose for the ball — they’ve picked off seven passes already this season – which means this game isn’t gonna be a cakewalk for Tony Romo, but one still has to imagine that Romo and the ‘Boys will be able to accomplish enough through the air to make the lack of a ground game significantly irrelevant. Minnesota has the tools to slow this one down and keep it close, but not to win it. I’m taking the Cowboys to win and the Vikings to cover.

Tampa Bay (+2) at Detroit
I thought about trying to analyze this game, but then I realized it doesn’t matter. You know which team’s gonna win? Whichever one I don’t pick. So I’ll go with the home squad, because that seems the most sensible choice in a close game, to win by a field goal. But I fully expect it to go the other way.

Tennessee (-1.5) at Houston
If I knew whether Vince Young were going to start, I’d know how to pick this game. But I don’t. So I’ll just take the home team to pull off the upset. On paper, that is. Only a fool would actually place a bet on this game.

New England (-16.5) at Miami
I can come up with almost nothing to say about this game, so instead I’ve got a comment on each of the teams. I’ll start with the hosts: To my mind, the mere fact that Trent Green wants to go on playing is the clearest evidence that he really needs to retire. Now for the visitors: This constitutes thinking way farther ahead than is either reasonable or sane (you know, I’ve had a few concussions myself over the years), but I’ve been thinking it, so I might as well spit it out. It regards the 2008 draft. (And it assumes everything will continue to go as it’s been going, which is a ridiculous assumption to make, but it’s what I’ve got at the moment.) Let’s say the first-round pick the Patriots lost as a result of the whole videotaping scandal thing is going to end up falling somewhere between 29 and 32. That is to say, that lost pick would have come at #29 even if they were to finish with only the second-best record in the league and fail make the Super Bowl (which is really the worst-case scenario given the way things are going right now), and #32 if they manage to win it all. And let’s say the pick they’ve got coming as a result of their 2007 draft day trade with San Francisco ends up being somewhere between a top 10 and top 15 pick. (If the season ended today, the 49ers would be picking thirteenth, and their situation doesn’t appear to be getting any better.) And say it continues to be the case that the Pats don’t like picking in the top half of the first round. Now, let’s imagine that the Dolphins or the Rams or whomever ends up picking first overall, decide that what they really need in order to rebuild is two guys in the top half of the first round. What do you suppose the chances are that the Pats could end up making a deal in which they trade away that 49ers pick for the first pick in the second round of the 2008 draft (which, by virtue of the elimination of the Pats’ own pick would be the 32nd pick overall — that is, numerically equivalent to the last pick of the first round in most years) plus a first-rounder in 2009 and maybe a few other later round picks? If that were somehow to happen, it would mean the Pats could end up picking where a Super Bowl champion normally picks in 2008 — but with a discount based on the fact that the player selected would be the first pick in the second round rather than the last pick in the first — and have two first rounders in 2009. It’s just a random, and in all probability meaningless, thought, but I had it. And it concerns the Patriots. So here it is. Oh, also, I don’t see Miami’s awful defense having any ability to stop New England’s superb offense. Neither do I see the Dolphins O having much chance of making anything happen against the Patriots D. So I’m looking for a final score of something on the order of 42-0 in favor of the Pats.

San Francisco (+9) at NY Giants
Turns out the Giants have a defense, after all. Turns out New York’s particularly effective against the run. That’s bad news for Trent Dilfer, who won’t be able to count on Frank Gore to carry the 49ers offense. (Yeah, Frank hasn’t had much an opportunity to do that thus far this season anyhow, but he’s going to have to start getting those opportunities if the Niners are ever gonna have any chance to show some progress.) And given that Dilfer’s thrown three picks and taken eight sacks in two starts, the Giants’ Frank-stopping ability should turn out to be really, really bad news for San Francisco. I’m taking the giants and giving the points.

Atlanta (+9) at New Orleans
Maybe it’s true. Maybe the Saints have figured something out. Maybe they began a spectacular turnaround Sunday night in Seattle. But we won’t know that after this game. We won’t know it until they’ve played a few good teams. And the mere act of switching to a competent quarterback doesn’t make this Atlanta team good. It probably doesn’t even raise the Falcons to the level of not awful, which is about as high as we can, with any real confidence, place the Saints right now. New Orleans by six.

Arizona (+8.5) at Washington
I don’t think it much matters whom the Cardinals start under center. You can’t throw the ball successfully against Washington anyhow. Of course, neither can you expect to run the ball effectively against them, especially when they can comfortably stack eight men in the box. So, OK, from Edgerrin James’ perspective, it would probably be nice if the Cards had someone on the roster who was both qualified and healthy enough to start at quarterback. But they don’t. So that leaves Edge and the rest of the Cardinals offense without much of anywhere to go. And that spells a Washington victory, probably by three or four.

NY Jets (+6) at Cincinnati
You know when your team sucks? When you’re getting six points, even on the road, from the 1-4, defense-free Cincinnati Bengals. That’s when. Worse still for the Jets, I think Cincinnati covers. And then the Jets completely fall apart.

Kansas City (+3) at Oakland
This could be a record-breaking game. That is, it could turn out to be the quickest game in NFL history. I expect to see both offenses run the ball about 75 percent of the time (though Kansas City will mix in some effective play action and probably do its scoring through the air), which will keep the clock running. In the end, the Raiders will manage a few more rushing yards and one more point than the Chiefs.

Chicago (+5.5) at Philadelphia
Can I offer a little advice, Andy? Here’s what I’m thinking: Don’t kick the damned ball to Devin Hester. But, you know, it’s just a thought. You’re the coach. (Assuming Andy takes my advice, I’ll take the Eagles to edge the Bears by a field goal in a very high-scoring game.)

St. Louis (+9) at Seattle
So Seattle’s ineffective on both sides of the ball. And Shaun Alexander has been revealed as a guy who can’t pick up yards unless your O line opens giant holes for him on every play. And the Seahawks are lucky to be 3-3. And they’ll only win the NFC West if it turns out that Arizona doesn’t really want it. That’s all nice and everything. But the Rams absolutely stink. Seattle by a touchdown.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Denver
Pittsburgh gives up fewer points than any team in the league (9.4 per game) and scores more than all but four (26.4). Denver allows the fifth most points (27.2) and puts up the fifth fewest (15). I could spend all day talking about individual matchups that favor Pittsburgh, or about Denver always playing well coming off a bye, but what would be the point? Pittsburgh by a touchdown.

Indianapolis (-3) at Jacksonville
If I were a smart man, I’d have looked at this game for 10 seconds, decided there’s no reason to pick against the Colts and called it a day. But I’m not a smart man. I’m a stupid, stupid man. So I started thinking about how Jacksonville has been running the ball well and stopping the run well. And how Indianapolis has been running the ball not quite as well and stopping the run not quite as well. And I thought about how that was kind of how things were trending when Indy traveled to Jacksonville in week 14 of last season, and how the Jags beat the living bejesus out of the Colts that week. So I decided to pick Jacksonville to beat the bejesus out of Indianapolis again here. But I know I’m gonna regret that come Monday night (or early Tuesday morning, most likely). I am a stupid, stupid man.

Looks to me like there’s exactly one game worth watching this week. I can’t even bear to spend a lot of time contemplating the rest of these dogs. So give my opinion even less weight than usual this week. You know, if that’s possible.

St. Louis (+9.5) at Baltimore
GusFrerotte. You really need me to say anything else? I’m taking Baltimore and giving the points.

Minnesota (+5.5) at Chicago
I don’t care who starts at quarterback for the Vikings. Don’t care how bloody awful the Bears starting QB is either. The Vikings simply aren’t winning in Chicago. They’re not even coming close. Bears by a touchdown.

Miami (+4.5) at Cleveland
Man, you’d never guess the Dolphins are as bad as they are listening to Joey Porter run his mouth. But they are, which is why I’m happy to give the points in this matchup.

Washington (+3) at Green Bay
Turns out Green Bay isn’t that good after all. Is anybody truly shocked by this. I still like Green Bay’s chances at home against a Redskins team that I don’t believe is quite as good as its 3-1 record. I’ll take Green Bay straight up and look for a push vs. the spread.

Houston (+6.5) at Jacksonville
I’ve gotta tell you, I like the Jags because they’re at home. But six and a half seems more than a bit excessive to me. I’m looking for Jacksonville to come out ahead by two or three points in a very hard-fought battle.

Cincinnati (-3) at Kansas City
Why would Kansas City stick with an injured QB? Maybe it’s because Herm Edwards loves to lose. Or maybe it’s because Herm realizes that it wasn’t like his offense was putting up any points anyhow. Possibly both. Thing is, with one of the worst defenses in the league coming in to town, it’s entirely possible the Chiefs will be able to put up points no matter who starts under center. But will they be able to score enough to keep up with the Bengals high-powered offense? I’m guessing not. Cincy by a field goal.

Philadelphia (-3) at NY Jets
Quick: Which of these two one-win teams sucks the most? Give up? It’s the Jets. Because at least the Eagles have something resembling a defense. Enjoy 1-5, Eric. And, uh, good luck on the job market in the off-season. You’re gonna need it.

Tennessee (+3) at Tampa Bay
I still believe in Jeff Garcia I truly do. But I also still believe that you can’t win professional football games without a legitimate running back. And I just don’t see a one-dimensional Buccaneers offense being able to get much accomplished against the Titans’ very solid D. That means lots of three and outs, which means lots of time on the field for Tampa’s defense. And that means that no matter how strong the Bucs D might be, or how well it matches up here, eventually it’s gonna wear down. I don’t care how poorly they played at home a week ago, I like the Titans to pull off the upset on the road this week.

Carolina (+4) at Arizona
Can a 43-year-old man go from sitting on his couch watching games to starting for a new team in five days? Well, apparently he can. It’s just that you can’t hope for him to be terribly successful. I’ll take the Cards, give the points and do my best not to rubberneck if things get as ugly as I suspect they might.

New England (-5) at Dallas
The consensus of experts is that New England wins this one, but by nothing remotely resembling the 23-point average margin of victory the Patriots have enjoyed through the first five weeks of the season. I know that whenever the experts agree on too much, they end up being wrong about at least some of it. And since I’m certainly not gonna pick against New England in this game, or any other this season (Adam Schefter did a nice job of summing up my logic in a radio interview recently, noting that if you consistently pick the Patriots, you can feel pretty confident that you’re gonna be right about 15 times this season), so I’m looking for the consensus to come out wrong on the matter of how competitive the game will be. That is, I’m looking for the Pats to win this one in a blowout. And the difference, in my mind, won’t be the fact that the Dallas defensive backs don’t match up well with the Pats wide receivers (though that’s a factor) or the fact that Bill Belichick-coached teams typically eat relatively inexperienced quarterbacks like Tony Romo for lunch (though that will certainly come into play. The difference is line play. The Patriots are tougher than the Cowboys on the line of scrimmage — on both sides of the ball. Dallas’ pass rushers had a tough time getting to Trent Edwards on Monday night, and New England’s offensive line is stronger than Buffalo’s. That leads me to conclude that the Cowboys are unlikely to have much success getting to the league’s leading passer here. (Add to that the matchup problems for Dallas’ secondary and things don’t look too pretty.) Also on Monday night, the Dallas O-line was completely ineffective in keeping Buffalo’s pass rush out of Romo’s face. I don’t think anyone would argue that Buffalo’s D line is on par with New England’s. So I’m expecting to see Romo say arrivederci to a few more balls in this game (he probably won’t throw another five picks, but two will be more than enough). Dallas may see some limited success in the run game early on, but that will fade toward halftime, and will go away entirely if the Cowboys find themselves playing from a 10-point deficit, which I expect to happen by the middle of the third quarter. The Cowboys may keep it close through the first half, but the difference in line play will catch up with them as the game wears on, and the Pats will open up a big lead heading into the fourth quarter, a lead they’ll be able to protect much better than the Bills were. In the end, I expect New England’s margin of victory to rest somewhere between 20 and 24 points.

Oakland (+10) at San Diego
The Raiders go into this game leading the AFC West by half a game. Given that the Chargers at least appear to have come to life a week ago, I’m expecting Oakland to come out of this game tied for either second or last place in the division. Chargers by 14.

New Orleans (+6.5) at Seattle
Flex scheduling can’t begin soon enough for me. Nor, I expect, can the 2007 season end soon enough for the Saints, who are almost officially the biggest bust of the year. I don’t think the Seahawks are a particularly good team and I’d still give double the six and a half.

NY Giants (-3) at Atlanta
Are you kidding me? Are you fucking kidding me? The New England-Dallas game is on at 4:15 on Sunday afternoon, and this is what we get in one of the two prime time slots. I don’t even have it in me to discuss this game in any real way. The Giants apparently aren’t as bad as I expected them to be, while the Falcons are exactly as bad as everyone expected them to be. Therefore, I’m looking for the Giants to win this one by a touchdown.

You know what happens a week after ten underdogs win outright in the NFL? Things settle down considerably. There may be some close games this week according to the oddsmakers, but we’ll see no more than two upsets, and possibly none at all. I’m guessing at one, but not for any real reason. My money likely will go on one of the bigger favorites — New England, Tennessee or Dallas — to cover. Here’s what not to expect:

Miami (+5.5) at Houston
Four weeks into the season and the folks in Miami are already wondering whom to blame. It’s gonna be a long, long season for the Fins. The Texans get some temporary relief from their running woes (it doesn’t matter who starts, you can’t fail to gain rushing yards against a Miami defense that gives up 200 of them a game), and have this thing put away by halftime. The final margin will be 10 points, minimum.

Jacksonville (-2.5) at Kansas City
Flip a coin. Both teams have been impressive on defense (Kansas City shockingly so, given what appeared to me heading into the season to be a questionable D line) and each has had exactly one good game on offense (its most recent). Jacksonville’s the better team, but Kansas City’s the home team. And since I don’t see much potential for outright upsets elsewhere this week, I’m gonna go ahead and take the Chiefs.

Cleveland (+16.5) at New England
I just don’t even know what to say about this game. I hope for Romeo’s sake it isn’t too ugly. The Pats have been winning by an average of 25. And the Browns, no matter what anyone says, aren’t nearly as good as their 2-2 record. So I’ll go ahead and give the points.

Carolina (+3) at New Orleans
Can the Saints get off the schneid and look like they’ve got half a chance to turn this season around? I can’t begin to guess about the season, but I’m pretty sure the David Carr-led Panthers are the cure for what ails just about any team in the league. Saints by four.

NY Jets (+3) at NY Giants
The Jets and Giants ought to be rooting for the Yankees and Indians series to make it to game four. Otherwise, someone might notice this game. And that won’t be good for anyone involved. The Giants fail to lose again, but only by a point this week.

Seattle (+6) at Pittsburgh
Six points seems rather excessive to me in this game. I mean, I expect Pittsburgh to win and all, but I also expect Seattle to play the Steelers tough. The Seahawks will set out to attack the Steelers in much the same way the Cardinals did last week, with physical play and an effort to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. And my guess is that Seattle will have a reasonable amount of success on defense, forcing Ben Roethlisberger to throw more than anyone associated with the Steelers would like him to, and creating some opportunities for Seattle’s DBs to capitalize on Ben’s inevitable mistakes. I don’t, however, expect the Seattle offense to be able to accomplish on the road what the Arizona O was able to do at home. And considering Pittsburgh’s defensive capabilities, that likely means some mistakes going the other way. By the time the clock ticks down to :00, I expect the Steelers to have won both the turnover battle and the game by a margin of one, two at the most (turnovers and points, that is).

Arizona (-3) at St. Louis
How long do you figure it’ll be before Gus Frerotte and Marc Bulger are sitting next to each other on the bench, nursing their wounds and watching Brock Berlin get his head knocked off? I’m thinking three quarters. Arizona wins this one by 10.

Atlanta (+8) at Tennessee
Could it be that the Falcons have started to get their feet back under them? I guess anything’s possible, but I’m gonna need to see a bit more than one good game, before I buy into anything. The Titans, meanwhile, have been looking more and more like a team that can compete with the top squads in the league and beat the stuffing out of most of the rest. The Falcons, whether they’re improving or not, remain one of the rest. I’m taking Tennessee and giving the points.

Detroit (+3.5) at Washington
I’m done dismissing the Lions outright. For the nonce, anyhow. Detroit still needs to establish a running game and a defense before I’ll even consider buying in for real (and I still have a feeling it’s all gonna come tumbling down eventually), but I’m willing to believe that their passing game is good enough to keep them in a lot of contests and even to lift them to wins more often than I might have expected. I still can’t imagine the Lions being hugely effective against Washington’s defense. And with Clinton Portis reportedly feeling good, I expect the ‘Skins will be able to play ball control offense and limit the Lions’ scoring opportunities. That adds up to a Redskins victory, by about a field goal.

Tampa Bay (+10) at Indianapolis
The good news for the Bucs is that it appears the Colts run D has taken a hit. The bad news for the Bucs is that it appears they don’t have a good option at running back at the moment. The Bucs may be able to keep this close for the first half, but the Colts will open it up in the second and end up winning it by about the 10 they’re giving.

San Diego (+1.5) at Denver
Look, I agree with everyone who’s saying the Chargers are too talented to be 1-3. And, you know, maybe it’s reasonable to expect San Diego to turn things around this weekend. After all, the Broncos can’t stop the run (they’re giving up 181 yards a game), and while San Diego has yet this season to move the ball effectively on the ground, you do have to figure Weepy Weepenstein is eventually gonna dry his eyes and start doing some damage. But, you know, LT hasn’t had a lot of success in Denver in the past, and I’m not sure you can reasonably anticipate anything either way here. I’ll say this: I don’t see Tomlinson getting a lot of support from the passing game this weekend. The Broncos have a fairly solid pass defense (statistically, it looks great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that NFL teams tend not to go to the air much when they’re kicking the living snot out of you on the ground), so I see no reason to expect the Chargers’ lackluster pass offense to come to life in this game. I do, on the other hand, expect Denver to have a good bit of success passing the ball against San Diego. I mean, the Chiefs managed to burn the Chargers to the tune of 284 yards and two TDs through the air, and the Broncos have a better passing attack than Kansas City. And I think Denver will be able to do enough on the ground (regardless of what may happen with Travis “Spliff” Henry)to keep San Diego from loading up the backfield. So, talent or no talent, I’m having a hard time seeing how I should expect the Chargers to manage an upset. That’s why I’m not doing it. Broncos by yet another last-second field goal.

Baltimore (-3.5) at San Francisco
I’m not entirely sure going with Trent Dilfer at quarterback ultimately presents that much of a problem for San Francisco. Yeah, Trent played horribly against Seattle, but I think that may have been a product of his having taken too much on his shoulders and trying to do too much. Assuming he’s been able this week to settle down and settle in to a role akin to the one he played when he was quarterbacking the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory a few years back, Trent should probably do OK. Eventually. But not this week. Because a QB like Dilfer needs a guy like Vernon Davis around to bail him out when he gets in trouble. And Vernon’s not gonna be back in the Niners lineup for another two weeks. That’s bound to make things tough on Trent, particularly given that the Ravens run D is among the best in the league (they allow just three yards a carry — 71 per game — and have given up only one rushing touchdown in four games). That means Trent likely won’t to be able to fall back on Frank Gore. With limited run support and a lack of a key target in the short passing game, Trent and the 49ers receiving corps are going to be under a good bit of pressure. And although Baltimore’s pass defense has been no great shakes so far this season, it’s not terribly hard to devise and execute coverages to stymie a journeyman quarterback whom your coaches know extremely well and who has limited options. It all should add up to a poor outing for Trent and the Niners, which means a fairly easy win for the Ravens. I’ll even give the points.

Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay
Brian Griese as starting quarterback has to be just about the best idea for fixing a team since Norv Turner as head coach. At least the Bears were actually in the frying pan before taking the leap into the fire. I’m guessing that doesn’t make burning hurt any less, though. I’ll take the Packers and give the points.

Dallas (-10) at Buffalo
Who schedules these Monday night games? Whoever you are, nice going. Real nice. Dallas by 14.

Here’s the best advice I’ll ever give you: Don’t bet so much as a nickel on professional football this weekend. Just don’t. From a gambling perspective, this week has disaster written all over it. Take a look. The road teams are favored in nine out of 14 games. And, mark my words, five of those road favorites are gonna lose outright. Now, tell me which five. You can’t, can you. In fact, looking down the list, you’d be hard pressed to name even two with any real degree of confidence. And if you look at the stats and the trends, you’re gonna come away feeling like six or seven of those road favorites might actually win and cover. But tell me which ones. Or, let’s make it easier: name three. Get my point? Good. So take the week off. Just sit back and enjoy the craziness. Me, I’m gonna go ahead and make some picks, but I’m not expecting to do very well, either straight up or against the spreads. So I’m keeping these between you and me, which is to say I’m not involving anyone who makes being wrong harder by attaching vig to the deal. This way, if I’m 0-14 come Monday morning, I’ll at least know it could have been worse; I could have lost money as well as my pride.

Houston (-3) at Atlanta
The Texans may need to start Ron Dayne in place of injured Ahman Green here. That means … um, it means … uh … I think it means the guy running over Atlanta’s defensive front will have a nicer looking beard. So, you know, maybe that’ll make the Falcons feel better or something. You can feel good about giving double the spread.

NY Jets (-4) at Buffalo
Much as I’d love to see the Jets lose this game, I can’t see it happening. I mean, the Jets are still awful and all, but considering the increasingly dire state of the Bills’ health, I’d sooner pick Syracuse than Buffalo to top New York. The Jets come out ahead by a field goal.

Baltimore (-4.5) at Cleveland
So now it looks like Kellen Winslow may be sidelined for a bit. Because, yeah, that’s what Cleveland needed. One more reason to focus on the Indians. I’m taking Baltimore and giving the points.

St. Louis (+12) at Dallas
So here’s the situation: You’re 0-3. Your most important offensive weapon is out. Your quarterback is playing with broken ribs. Your offensive line hasn’t managed to stop (or even slow down) anyone all season (which goes a long way to explaining those first two points). And you’re headed into a road game against what may be the best team in the NFC (for the moment, anyhow). What do you do? Two things: 1) Brace and hope it doesn’t hurt too bad when the Cowboys stick that fork in you; and 2) Start preparing for the draft. Dallas by two touchdowns.

Chicago (-3) at Detroit
Will Brian Griese be able to succeed under center for the Bears? Long term, I have no idea. (I have a guess, though, and it ain’t yes.) But for this weekend, I should expect so. Let’s face it, Uncle Rico (by which I mean the “real” Uncle Rico, not the guy Pro Football Talk calls Uncle Rico) could throw the ball successfully against Detroit’s secondary. The big question is whether Chicago’s seriously banged-up defense can stop Detroit from scoring enough points to make Griese’s relative success at QB irrelevant. And you know what? In the end, I have absolutely no idea what to expect. I’m gonna take the Bears, just because I believe they’re still the better team (and, OK, because I still think Matt Millen is a bum, which has to count for something), but I’m not looking for them to win it by a point more than the three they’re giving. And I won’t be at all surprised if this game goes the other way.

Oakland (+4) at Miami
This would have been a great game 30 years ago. Right now, it’s likely a painful matchup between two teams in the beginning stages of rebuilding. And that makes it kind of hard to figure where this game will go. Sure, both of these teams are supposed to have strong defenses, but neither unit has exactly lived up to expectations so far this season. Offensively, both have been incredibly uneven. The Raiders have been successful moving the ball on the ground, dismal through the air. The Fins have been the inverse. So which conventional wisdom do you like? The one that says take the team that can run the ball, or the one that says take the home team? Joey Porter says go with the home team. Indeed, he guarantees his new squad isn’t falling to 0-4. But I don’t know. I think Joey just isn’t used to losing (the experience of last season notwithstanding). I also think Pep has something to prove. I know he’s gonna find a way to keep his team competitive and I think that might just balance the Raiders’ offense out long enough for them to sneak in a road victory. So that’s how I’m picking it.

Green Bay (-2) at Minnesota
You know, this game is supposed to be harder to pick than it is. Because with the way Green Bay’s been playing and the way Minnesota’s been playing this season, there’s no reason to even consider picking against the Packers here. Except that the Packers supposedly struggle at the Metrodome. Thing is, though, they don’t so much anymore. Yeah, in the Favre era, the Packers are 5-10 in Minnesota. That’s ultimately not all that shocking. I mean, the teams are division rivals. And the Metrodome is the Vikings home stadium (and home field advantage means a lot in the NFL). But since 2000, the Packers are 4-3 in Minnesota. And that tells me there’s not a whole lot behind the idea that Favre’s Packers can’t beat the Vikings in the Metrodome. And since Green Bay, as noted, has the better team by far, I’m going with the Pack to win it by four.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Carolina
I don’t care who you are, where you are, or what team you’re facing, you just don’t win football games with David Carr under center. Tampa Bay squeaks out a victory and takes an early lead in the race to end the season with the distinction of being the least bad team in the NFC South.

Seattle (-2) at San Francisco
I don’t think either of these teams is going much of anywhere this season. But that’s not important here. What’s important here is that the Seahawks are playing better than the 49ers on both sides of the ball. Moreover, the Niners aren’t running the ball well and aren’t stopping the run at all. So I’m taking the Seahawks, giving the points, and having done with it.

Pittsburgh (-6) at Arizona
Set the whole question of whether Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm are primed for revenge aside. Set aside the question of whether the Steelers are as good as their record, too (though of course they are; everyone always is; that’s the whole point of records). Here are the real questions you need to answer in order to call this game: Does the fact that the Cardinals coaches obviously know the Steelers better than the Steelers coaches can possibly know the Cardinals count for something? Does the fact that Edgerrin James has tended to play well against Pittsburgh make a difference? Do you believe the Cardinals wide receivers match up well against the Steelers DBs? Well enough that it doesn’t matter whom the Cards start at QB? And does the fact that the Steelers have to do a good bit of traveling for this game mean anything at all? My answers: Yes, maybe, yes, probably, and perhaps just a little. And with that in mind, I’m taking the upset. Cards win it by a point on the last play of the game.

Denver (+9.5) at Indianapolis
If Jay Cutler’s gimpy and Javon Walker’s slowed down, what are Denver’s chances of keeping this game close? Non-existent. That’s what. Colts by 17.

Kansas City (+11.5) at San Diego
Even Norv Turner shouldn’t be able to engineer a loss this weekend. Chargers by 10.

Philadelphia (-3) at NY Giants
Both of these teams played better last weekend than they had in weeks one and two. But I’m still not sold on the Giants. I expect to see the Eagles D blitz all day long, put the fear of god in Eli, and start looking like a team that can challenge Dallas for the division crown. Philly by nine.

New England (-7) at Cincinnati
I thought it might be fun to take a look at what happened the last time these two teams met (oddly enough, it took place in Cincinnati in week four of the 2006 season), so I did. Here’s what I found out about that game: The Patriots were 2-1 going in. The Bengals were 3-0. The Pats had been averaging 17 points a game on offense. Their defense had been giving up the same. The Bengals, meanwhile had been scoring 28 points a game and allowing only 16. The New England offense a week earlier had fallen apart when visiting Denver, having seen no reason to respect the Pats passing game, committed to stopping the run and held the Pats to 50 rushing yards and seven points. The Pats went at the Bengals determined to restore balance to the O, and stuck to their game plan even though they fell flat on their first two drives (which ended in a punt and an interception) and fell behind 6-0 in the first quarter. Then the offense kicked into high gear. The Pats moved the ball with ease on the ground — Laurence Maroney rushed for 125 yards and two TDs, Corey Dillon for 67 and one — and succeeded to the extent they needed to in the air — Tom Brady was an unimpressive 15 for 26, but had 188 passing yards and two TDs. The New England defense, meanwhile, dug in and held Cincinnati to 271 yards of total offense. The Pats won 38 to 13. What does any of that have to do with this game? Well, the Patriots of 2007 are clearly better on both sides of the ball than last year’s team. And while the current Bengals have been about the same team offensively as they were last year (though that may be changing for this game with loss of a key contributor), they’ve also been significantly weaker on D. More to the point, the Bengals are going to have an all but impossible time stopping the Pats’ wide receivers unless they drop extra bodies into the secondary (and maybe not even then). And the trouble is, if you put all your efforts into slowing down New England’s passing attack, all you’re gonna do is open the door for a 250-yard day on the ground. So it’s pick your poison time for the Bengals on Monday night. And the only difference between whether the Pats come out on top 45-13 or 28-3 will be whether Cincinnati surrenders the air or the ground.

The spreads may be a lot closer this week than they were last, but I’ve found the picking to be substantially easier. That probably means I’m in for a number of rather unpleasant surprises. (Not that I’ll actually be surprised.)

Arizona (+7.5) at Baltimore
Steve McNair is healthy and ready to start again. So that’s something about this game that’s very nearly interesting. Ravens by six.

San Diego (-4.5) at Green Bay
I’m gonna go way the hell out on a limb here and predict an upset. “What the hell?” you ask. Do I really think the Chargers are that bad just because they got their helmets handed to them by the best team in the league? Nope. It ain’t that. Do I really think the Packers are that good just because they won a weird-ass game over Philadelphia in week one and then stomped the hapless Giants in week two? Nope. Ain’t that neither. In fact, I feel reasonably certain that the Chargers are a better team than the Packers. But I’m also reasonably certain that San Diego hasn’t had time to fix the problems that led them to be slaughtered on Sunday night. And while the Packers are hardly the Patriots, they do have the advantage of having watched how the Pats got it done, and, perhaps more important, of catching the Chargers at the end of a second consecutive long road trip. Plus, look, Brett Favre isn’t Tom Brady (hell, there were times last season when I wasn’t even sure he was Brett Favre anymore), but he’s still got a hell of an arm, and if he starts hurling passes into the secondary I saw on the field in Foxborough, he’s gonna make some big connections. In fact, I’m not entirely sure that the San Diego secondary right now is much better than the New York secondary that Brett torched for 286 yards and three touchdowns in the Meadowlands a week ago. Moreover, the Chargers’ most important offensive weapon has yet to come to life this season (which can happen when you take the pre-season off), and I’m not sure that the Packers are the team an offensive player is likely to come to life against. Green Bay has won its last six games (stretching back to week 14 of last season). And the Packers defense has allowed only 11.3 points per game during that stretch. That’s not so shabby. They’ve been fairly solid against the run this season, too (though they haven’t faced a running back like LT — perhaps because there isn’t another one in the league). Even having stated all that, however, I recognize that there are good reasons the Chargers are favored here (like the San Diego pass rush, which, when it’s not up against New England’s O-line, is tough as nails). So I’m aware that it’s a low percentage pick. But I’m sticking with it. Green Bay walks away with its third win and San Diego dips into a bit of a hole.

Indianapolis (-6) at Houston
Look, the Texans are a fun, exciting young team. Clearly they’re gonna win a bunch of games and maybe even flirt with playoff contention this season. And I’d love to believe they have a chance at beating a Colts team that didn’t play at all well in Nashville last weekend. But with Andre Johnson out of the lineup it just ain’t happening. Colts by seven.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Kansas City
I’m fairly certain that one of these teams is gonna win this game. And I’m willing to bet (though not real money) it’ll be the one with the actual defense. Just a hunch. I’m taking the Vikings to pull off the upset (as it were).

Buffalo (+16.5) at New England
It’s true. Buffalo often does play the Patriots tough in Foxborough. But, man, you’ve gotta actually field a team before you can play anybody tough. (And his stunning self-confidence notwithstanding, one increasingly capable quarterback alone does not constitute a professional football team). Plus, the Pats are pissed off and on a mission. New England may start a bit slower this week than they did in weeks one and two, as the offense adjusts to playing a 4-3 defense, but by the time they’re finished, the Pats will have put at least three touchdowns between themselves and the Bills.

Miami (+3) at NY Jets
You know, I’d love to believe the Jets could drop this game and fall to 0-3. And given the fact that New York’s offense likely will be facing some long fields and a semi-stout Miami defense, I don’t expect the Jets to run away with this game. That said, unless that Dolphins D finds a way to score, I’m not sure the Jets O will need to produce much. The Jets win this one 10-6.

Detroit (+6.5) at Philadelphia
Three things I know concerning this game: The Eagles aren’t nearly as bad as their 0-2 record. The Lions aren’t nearly as good as their 2-0 record. And, concussion or no concussion, it’s gonna take an actual miracle for Jon Kitna’s team to come out of Philly with a win. Not being much of a believer in football-related miracles myself, I’m taking the Eagles straight up, though I do think the Lions will be able to keep the margin to more like three even without divine intervention.

San Francisco (+8.5) at Pittsburgh
You could, I suppose, look at this game as a matchup of undefeated teams. And it is that. But thinking about it that way doesn’t do you much good. Better, it seems to me, to view it as a game between a team that’s edged a couple of NFC teams and a team that’s beat the living bejesus out of a couple of AFC teams (albeit weak ones). And the good thing about looking at it the second way is that not only is it more realistic, but it leaves you with very few questions about how this game is likely to turn out. I’m taking the Steelers and giving the points.

St. Louis (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
If this game were being played in week five or six, I’d just go to the stats and trust they’d tell the story. But two weeks of stats are worthless in sizing up a matchup of such enigmatic teams. I have no idea what to make of either of these teams. I think I know the Bucs are vulnerable to the run, which could prove advantageous to the Rams if they can manage to remember that they have Steven Jackson in the backfield. But I haven’t seen St. Louis make the most of Jackson yet this season, so I’m not exactly sure I can expect to see much of him in this game. I also think I know that as capably as they’ve played to date, the St. Louis defense looks to me like a unit that could have trouble stopping a well-executed West Coast attack. Only, I haven’t seen consistent evidence that the Bucs are able to mount one of those (one game, however well played, being something entirely different than a season). So I can’t say I see a clear advantage either way there. In the end, I’m going with the Bucs to win, but only because they’re at home. And I think the Rams should be able to keep the margin to a field goal. But, you know, like I said, it’s nothing more than guesswork.

Jacksonville (+3) at Denver
Hey, Jack, nice going with the whole dumping Byron Leftwich in favor of David Garrard thing. That really fixed your team’s offensive problems. I mean, eleven and a half points a game should be more than enough to get your team to, say, 5-11. Well done. Enjoy unemployment. Denver finally wins one before the final play of the game. Probably by about a touchdown.

Cleveland (+3) at Oakland
Somewhere in Ohio there’s a Pop Warner team that plays better defense than defensive mastermind Romeo Crennel’s Cleveland Browns. No overtime means no overtime shenanigans. Oakland by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Seattle
Somewhere in Ohio there’s a Pop Warner team that plays better defense than defensive mastermind Marvin Lewis’ Cincinnati Bengals. And probably another one that plays better D than the Seattle Seahawks. At the very least, we’re looking at a matchup of a middle-of-the-pack NFC team and a middle-of-the-pack AFC team. That plays out the same way virtually every time. Cincy comes out of this week’s shootout on top by six.

Carolina (-4) at Atlanta
Four points? Four? That’s it? Look, I know the Panthers are off to a pretty uneven start this season, and I know division games are almost always a challenge, particularly when you’re playing on the road, but let’s be realistic here. The Falcons have managed to put 10 points on the board so far this season. Ten. Over two games. In case you’re horribly mathematically challenged, that’s five points per game, which isn’t merely worst in the league, it’s almost inconceivably awful. The Panthers, meanwhile, have averaged 24. So, shit, you tell me how to pick this game. I’m playing the averages and looking for Carolina to win by 19. No matter what, I promise you, they’ll come out ahead by at least six.

NY Giants (+3.5) at Washington
The Redskins have certainly played solid defense so far this season. And there’s no surprise there. The only question remaining if you’re Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders is, how do you kick your offense into gear? The answer, for this week anyhow, is that you host the New York Giants. They’ll make any offense look great. Redskins by 10.

Dallas (+3) at Chicago
This is another game that I’m not sure what to make of. The Bears may be struggling on offense (three guesses as to why, and the first two don’t count — ahem) but their defense is as rock-solid as ever. And the fact of the matter is that as good as the Cowboys offense has looked, it’s not like they’ve put up their 41 points a game against the cream of the NFL crop. That said, there’s no taking away the fact that Dallas has exploded out of the gage while Chicago has just sort of lumbered into the season. And if the Bears don’t come into this game ready to play hard and well in every facet of the game, they’re gonna find themselves sitting at 1-2 as they head toward three straight division games (the first two of them played on the road). I think the Bears know what they’re up against and I think they’ll come ready to play. And I think that will be enough to edge them past the Cowboys by a point or possibly two.

Tennessee (+4.5) at New Orleans
Listen, coach, I’ve got an idea that I think might help your team get off the schneid. You know, before it gets to be too late. It’s maybe a bit outside the box and all, but I’m thinking it just might work. Ready? Here it is: Hand the ball to the guy who carried your team deep into the 2006 playoffs. Not on every down. I mean, I know you’ve got your exciting second-year back, much admired second-year wideout and highly paid quarterback to showcase and all. And, sure, you don’t want to be one dimensional. But maybe, you know, a bit more than 10 times a game. Again, it’s just a thought. But I think if you do it, you can probably win this one by six or seven points.

Giant spreads. Road teams giving points all over the place. Yeah, that’s not a recipe for a prognostication disaster. The following, then, is offered for entertainment purposes only. And most of the entertainment will come by way of looking at how wrong I was after the fact.

Houston (+6.5) at Carolina
This is a tougher game to pick than the line lets on. Why? Well, even though the team Houston beat up on last week was quite possibly the worst in the league, I believe the Titans are a pretty good squad. And, yeah, the Panthers are, too, as their own week one results make abundantly clear. That said, Carolina didn’t really get going at St. Louis until after the Rams had lost Orlando Pace for the game (and, as it turns out, the season), and that’s no small matter. I think the Texans O line promises to pose much more of a challenge to the Panthers’ defensive front than the Rams line did, enough of a challenge potentially to make this one of the week’s more exciting games. I do think the Panthers will come out on top, but probably not by more than a field goal.

Cincinnati (-6.5) at Cleveland
Which offense looks like more of a powerhouse to you, this one or this one? OK, now try this: Which quarterback to you consider more solid, this one or this one? And which defense do you believe is better, this or this? So if the Steelers put up 34 points against the Browns while the Bengals put up 27 against the Ravens, what do you figure the Bengals offense is going to do to the Browns D? And if the Bengals D beat up on Steve McNair, taking the ball away from him four times, what chance do you suppose Derek Anderson has of succeeding? My thoughts exactly. Bengals in a rout.

Atlanta (+10) at Jacksonville
Virtually every week on the NFL schedule includes at least one game that has ugly written all over it. This is one of three of them this week. Jags 14-6.

Green Bay (pick ’em) at NY Giants
I don’t know about you, but I wasn’t terribly impressed with the way Eli Manning was playing before the shoulder injury. And however serious that injury may or may not be, it can only make Eli worse. And worse than bad ain’t good. (Indeed, the only thing worse for the Giants than having to start an injured Eli Manning would be having to start a healthy Jared Lorenzen.) Add the loss of key players on both sides of the ball. And factor in the unavoidable conclusion that any team that can beat the Eagles ought to be able to beat the Giants, and you really can’t do anything but anticipate win by the visitors here.

Buffalo (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
So Kevin Everett is alive and very well might walk again. That’s great news. It’s also about the only good news the banged-up Bills are likely to get this week, or for some time to come. Emotion may help Buffalo keep this close, but it won’t be enough to lift them to a win. Steelers by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+3) at St. Louis
If you were to look only at the first half of last week’s Carolina-St. Louis and Arizona-San Francisco games, you’d think picking this game was a breeze. But you can’t do that. You certainly can’t ignore the way the Rams offense essentially ceased functioning after Orlando Pace left the game. And you have to at least consider the fact that Alex Smith started to look like an NFL quarterback toward the end of his team’s struggle with the Cardinals. So when all is said and done, this game starts to look a lot like a coin flip to me. But the Rams are at home. And the Niners are coming off a tough Monday nighter. So I’m taking St. Louis to win this one and expecting a push vs. the spread.

New Orleans (-3) at Tampa Bay
This is where we learn the real truth about the Saints. Because, look, it’s one thing to get your asses kicked by the Colts in Indy on the
first night of the season. But, second straight road game or not, you can’t lose to the Bucs. Not this season. Saints by six.

Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee
Don’t expect the Colts to have as easy a time of it in this game as they had with the Saints in the season opener. The Titans appear to be about playing smashmouth football on offense this season, and that’s just the kind of thing that I believe can wear the Colts small, fast defense down. I’m gonna be very interested to see what happens when Jeff Fisher and Norm Chow send Chris Brown and big ol’ LenDale White barreling between the tackles on down after down. Something tells me that may lead to Vince Young having a very productive second half. On the other side of the ball, I’m gonna be very interested to see how Indy’s rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh fares against Kyle Vanden Bosch. I’m gonna go ahead and guess it won’t be as well as he did against Will Smith a week ago. So what does it all mean? It means I expect the Titans to stay in this game and play the Colts tough. And I won’t be at all surprised if Tennessee manages to pull off the upset. But I’m not picking it that way. In the end, I think Indy comes out ahead, but maybe only by three.

Seattle (-3) at Arizona
Pretty much everything I thought I knew about the Cardinals was confirmed on Monday night. They’re getting better, finally starting to make good use of all that talent they have on offense. But they’re not quite there yet. And they won’t quite be able to beat the Seahawks, though I’m guessing it comes down to the last play. I’m taking Seattle and expecting them to best the spread by a point.

Minnesota (+3) at Detroit
I don’t know what to make of this game, because I still don’t know what the hell to make of either of these teams. Both of them looked good last week, but both were playing weak opponents. I guess I’m expecting the home team’s possibly blossoming offense to prevail against the visitors’ potentially stout D. That’s not a hell of an endorsement of either squad, I know. But it’s what I’ve got. Lions win, Vikings just cover.

Dallas (-3.5) at Miami
Don’t expect the Cowboys to put up as many points against the Dolphins’ tough D as they did a week ago against the unit the Giants are trying to pass off as an NFL defense. But you can probably expect the Dallas D to accomplish something fairly similar to what we saw Washington pull off against the Miami offense, which is to say, hold the Fins to very few points even if they’re able to move the ball some. All in all, I’m thinking Cowboys 24, Dolphins 10.

NY Jets (+7.5) at Baltimore
You know what? I don’t care who plays quarterback for which team, because the Jets don’t have what it takes to stop Willis McGahee and the Ravens have everything they need to stop whatever New York throws at them. Baltimore puts a pounding on the Jets that will have Eric Mangini desperately scanning the Ravens sideline in hopes of spotting a video camera, microwave emitter, voodoo doll … anything on which he can try to hang responsibility for his and his team’s ineptitude. Ravens by 17.

Kansas City (+12) at Chicago
It may be a bit early in the season to be asking a question like this, but does anyone else have the feeling the Chiefs may be headed for 0-16? The Bears win this one by twice the enormous spread.

Oakland (+9.5) at Denver
There’s not a lot to say here. If you can’t beat Detroit at home, you can’t even hope to compete with Denver on the road. And that’s just a fact. Broncos by 10.

San Diego (+4) at New England
You might have forgotten this, what with all the hubbub and everything, but the Patriots will, in fact, be playing a game this Sunday night. A football game. Against a tough opponent. And since it’s a prime time game, there are gonna be lots of cameras on the sidelines. Lots. Some of them will sometimes be pointing at the coaching staffs for both teams. But most of them will mostly be pointing at the field. That’s where they’ll record New England, with no illicit technological assistance (real or imagined), dismantling San Diego. Pats by two touchdowns.

Washington (+7) at Philadelphia
It’s ultimately just a guess, but I’m thinking we saw the real Redskins but not the real Eagles a week ago. I’m looking for a correction in the latter here, which should mean Philly wins by three.

You want an accurate prediction? How’s this? Over the course of the next five days, 16 NFL teams will win and anther 16 will lose. And now that I’ve put that in writing, you can bet your ass there’s gonna be a tie somewhere. (Look at that. Four sentences in to week one and I’m already covering my ass.)

OK here’s the real thing. I don’t like all the big spreads this week. And I don’t like the fact that there are four road teams favored, one of them by a full touchdown. You know what it all means? It means nobody knows what’s gonna happen. And it means that that come Monday morning, there’s going to be a boatload of people shaking their heads and asking themselves why they didn’t stop an think, because they should have known better. And you know what? I’m gonna be one of them. Because I’m mostly picking the favorites. Stupid? Without a doubt. But at least I admit it, and you have to admire that, at least sort of sideways. Right?

Here we go. Sixteen predictions sure to steer you in precisely the wrong direction.

New Orleans (+6) at Indianapolis
Man, do I ever want the Saints to win this game. And, you know, they could. The Saints are certainly a better balanced team, and probably a better team overall, than the Colts. And I expect New Orleans to fare better over the course of the season. But I just can’t pick a six-point road dog to win in week one. I’ll take the Colts straight up, and hope I’m wrong, and the Saints to keep it close.

Denver (-3.5) at Buffalo
I don’t have one bit of faith in Buffalo’s defense. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but it won’t be this weekend. Road favorite or not, I’m taking the Broncos, and I’d give twice the spread.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cleveland
I have a rule against picking upsets straight up in week one. And usually you do want to pick the better team in any given football game. But then I keep thinking about how well Jamal Lewis has typically played against Pittsburgh (albeit while playing for a different, better team). And about how Ben Roethlisberger is so good at throwing the ball to opposing DBs. And about how I really think Kamerion Wimbley’s gonna live up to his potential this season. And that makes me want to pick the Browns. Who are at home. In a season-opener. Against a divisional rival. So I’m taking Cleveland to pull off the upset, and planning to cross everything I’ve got and hold my breath when the highlights roll around.

Philadelphia (-3) at Green Bay
Donovan McNabb’s healthy (for now, at least), which means that Lambeau or no Lambeau, I can’t pick against the Eagles. Philly wins this one by six.

Kansas City (+3) at Houston
I can’t tell you how psyched I am to start Ahman Green in fantasy this weekend. Almost as psyched as I am that I’m not a Kansas City Chiefs fan right now. A long, long season for the Chiefs starts with a big loss here. As strange as it is to type this, I’m looking for Houston to win this one by about three touchdowns.

Tennessee (+7) at Jacksonville
I think the Titans will finish this season ahead of the Jaguars, but that’s because I think the Titans will round into form in about week four or five and become a better team than the Jags. Right now, in this game, I’ve gotta think Jacksonville finds a way to come out ahead. But not by anything like seven points.

Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota
Quick, find a standout wide receiver on this depth chart. Exactly. So however talented Tarvaris Jackson may be (and that’s a matter that’s yet to be decided), unless you really, really believe in Visanthe Shiancoe, you’ve kinda gotta figure Atlanta’s defense has one man to stop here. That can’t be too hard, right? And that’d be great news for the Falcons, if they only had an offense. I’m not entirely sure there will be three points scored in this nightmare. But I have to guess that if there are, they’ll be put up by the home team. So I’m taking Minnesota straight up, and looking for a push with the points.

New England (-7) at NY Jets
Man, imagine being at home in week one of a new season, facing a division opponent that is having to go without a superstar defensive end (on account of injury) and a key, veteran safety (on account of cheating), both of whom are also team leaders, and yet the oddsmakers still peg you as an underdog by a touchdown. That’s gotta hurt. But probably not as much as getting beat by two touchdowns will.

Carolina (pick ’em) at St. Louis
The smart thing to do, when picking a fairly even matchup in the first week of the season, is to go with the home team. Another smart thing to do in a lot of situations is take the team with Steven Jackson at running back. That’s how you know I’m stupid. Because I’m taking the Panthers. And other than referencing this guy, I can’t begin to articulate why.

Miami (+3) at Washington
Look, Hudson Houck is one of the best (and maybe the best) offensive line coaches in the NFL, but it’d take Rumple-fucking-stiltskin to make something useful out of the half-talents Miami has protecting its aging, concussion-prone quarterback this season. And if I remember right, Washington has itself a hell of a defense. I’m taking the Redskins and giving the points. Oh, and hey, Trent. Duck.

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Seattle
The big Buccaneers news this week revolves around the fact that on their they’re carrying four quarterbacks, only one of whom has had any success as a starter in the NFL. And the thing about Garcia, though I’m rather a fan of his, is that he’s done quite well when playing for good teams and fairly poorly when playing for mediocre or bad teams. Tampa Bay aspires to mediocrity, so I don’t have high hopes for Jeff. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are approaching mediocrity from the other side (that is, they used to be good) and while I think they’re going all of nowhere this season, they should be able to top the Bucs with relative ease. I’m taking Seattle and giving the points.

Chicago (+6.5) at San Diego
Two letters: LT. Chargers by 10.

Detroit (+1.5) at Oakland
The Lions start their march toward a 10-plus-win season with a visit to the team that was worst in the NFL last season (worse, by one game than the Lions) and that still hasn’t signed the first overall pick in the 2007 draft (because, you know, $30 million just doesn’t go as far as it used to). And yet they’re still getting a point and a half. That’s not much, but it’s not looking like the oddsmakers are quite buying into your prediction, Jon. Then again, neither is anyone else. The Raiders D shuts the Lions down, while Oakland’s offense does just enough to win, but not cover. Final score: Oakland 10, Detroit 9.

NY Giants (+6) at Dallas
If Eli Manning couldn’t get the job done with a future Hall of Fame running back around to take some of the pressure off of him, how on earth is he going to do it without Tiki? And don’t even get me started on New York’s defensive secondary. Cowboys by seven.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Cincinnati
You know what’s crazy? This week one game could very well turn out to be the deciding factor in the AFC North championship. If the Ravens can somehow pull off an upset here, they’ll have an edge over what’s probably the only team in the division that poses a real threat to them this season. But then the Ravens aren’t going to pull off the upset, so I’m just talking. (Baltimore will still win the division, mind you. Just not in week one.) Bengals by a field goal.

Arizona (+3.5) at San Francisco
Next season this is gonna be a hell of a matchup. Right now, San Francisco has the edge. Probably to the tune of four points. (I will be staying up to watch, though, because I think this is gonna be a fun game, if not necessarily a great one.)