This Football Blog

Well, it ain’t Friday, but it ain’t quite game time either. Here’s my look at what not to expect in games four through sixteen. Hope you had a hell of a holiday.

Arizona (+6) at Minnesota
My guess is that the next time Dennis Green faces a team he used to coach, it’ll be Northwestern or Stanford. The Vikings stink these days, but they should still be able to manage a win here by a field goal.

Carolina (-4) at Washington
Will this be the weekend Carolina takes over first place in the NFC South race? I’m guessing yes. Meanwhile, the only question left to ask about Washington is what overpriced free agents will Dan Snyder waste his money on next year? Four’s a lot to give on the road, but with the way the Redskins are playing, what choice does one have?

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland
Man, I’d love to see the Browns, who damned near officially put the Steelers out of their misery a week ago, find a way to effectively hand the Ravens the AFC North (and essentially eliminate the Bengals from wild card contention). And given that Cincinnati’s defense is now statistically the worst in the league, there’s a least an outside chance of that happening. But I still don’t see the Browns being able to accomplish much on offense, and since Cleveland’s D and special teams aren’t likely to top last week’s 14-poing performance, I just don’t see an upset in the making here. Too bad.

Houston (+5.5) at NY Jets
In some respects, on paper, this is a pretty even matchup. The Jets run the ball ever so slightly better than the Texans. Houston passes somewhat better than New York. The Titans stop the run a tad better than the Jets. New York defends the pass a smidge better than Houston. Of course, the Jets score a bit more than a point more a game than the Titans and give up a bit more than a point less. So there’s that. There’s also the fact that the game is being played in New Jersey. So I’m taking the Jets straight up, though I do like the Texans to keep it to within three or four.

Jacksonville (-3) at Buffalo
Donovin Darius is gone for the season. That’s not gonna help Jacksonville’s secondary any over the long haul. But I don’t expect it to hurt too bad this week, since I really have a hard time believing the sack-prone Mr. Losmanwill be able to stay on his feet long enough to test the Jags’ DBs. I’m taking Jacksonville and giving the points.

New Orleans (+3) at Atlanta
A lot of folks are picking the upset here. And I totally understand why. Atlanta has lost three straight (though, in fairness, New Orleans has dropped its last two) and has seen its rushing production drop precipitously over the last month. Plus Drew Brees is on fire. But I’m not buying it. To begin with, last week’s numbers notwithstanding, I’m not sure I believe Brees will be able to continue to light it up with Marques Colston out of the lineup. I’m also not at all sure you can expect Atlanta to struggle to run the ball against a New Orleans defense that gives up 126 yards per game and 4.8 per carry on the ground. I think the Falcons pull off a win here, and probably do it by about double the spread.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore
The press in Pittsburgh, at least seems to realize that the Steelers’ season is over. The team’s post-Super Bowl crash all but complete, the media is starting to break down the likely dissolution of the coaching staff come January. Even still, I’ve heard Pittsburgh fans on the radio this very week talking about a run at the playoffs. By a 4-6 team. That nonsense ends here. Ravens by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+5.5) at St. Louis
It’s entirely possible something interesting will happen in this game. Like, maybe the 5-5 underdog will knock off the 4-6 favorite. Or something like that. If it does, I’ll find out about it on NFL GameDay. And my reaction will be something along the lines of “Hmmm, how about that?” Meanwhile, I’m taking the Rams straight up, the Niners with the points.

Chicago (+3) at New England
This, to my mind is it. This is where we find out if the Patriots are a team that’s improving and moving toward being a real threat come January, or merely a team that’s likely to sail into the playoffs by winning a weak division then hit a major roadblock in the divisional playoff round (yet again). The Bears are playing their third straight road game. That’s a game you lose about 60 percent of the time (more often when you’re opponent has a winning record. The Bears also struggled quite a bit to overcome the Jets last week. And we all know that when things go bad for Rex Grossman, they don’t just go a little bit bad, they turn completely upside-down. All that said, it’s not like we can take the Patriots’ grand outing last week against the league’s second-words pass defense as evidence that New England has solved all of the problems that have led the team to three home losses this season. Maybe the new turf in Foxborough will help reverse the dangerous trend by which the Pats are better on the road than they are at home. Maybe it won’t. By the end of this afternoon, we’ll know what’s what with the Patriots, and we’ll have a pretty good idea of whether they’ve got it in them to make a run for a February visit to Miami. I’m expecting New England to stay focused on the damned run for a change, get to Grossman early, and come out ahead by four.

NY Giants (-3.5) at Tennessee
At first glance, this game seemed pretty simple to me. The Giants may be on two-game losing streak, but the fact is they do virtually everything better than the Titans. That’s why they’re favored on the road and it’s why they’re likely to win. Then I started thinking about everything going on around the Giants. Like the way some fans wanna see struggling Eli Manning pulled Matt Hasselbeck or Jared Lorenzen (who looks to me like one of those idiots who walk around wearing shorts all winter long). Or the way Tiki Barber can’t stop spouting off about how messed up the team is. I’ve heard Tiki lay into both Eli’s mechanics and the coaching staff (for a failure to properly utilize King Douchebag) on his radio show over the past two weeks. And now he’s out there talking to the press about how he thinking the team’s play calling is a mess (which it kind of is, but that’s neither here nor there). And that tells me that the Giants are in serious trouble as a team. And I don’t care how much talent you have on your roster, that kind of turmoil can cause you to lose games. Add a bunch of ongoing injury problems, and I’m not at all confident in the Giants’ ability to get off the schneid. So I’m gonna go out on a bit of a limb and take the Titans straight up here. We’ll see how it plays out. I hope I end up being wrong.

Oakland (+13) at San Diego
For the first time in a long while, all season maybe, I think I just went a week without reading anything about the sorry state of the Raiders as an organization. Maybe there’s just nothing left to fall apart. I did, of course, read all about LaMont Jordan’s season being over. And, this is just a guess now, but I’m kinda thinking that’s not gonna make Oakland, which is maybe the worst team in the NFL, any more prepared to take on San Diego, which is maybe the best team in the NFL right now. So I’m taking the Chargers and, Oakland’s defensive successes aside, I’m giving the points.

Philadelphia (+9.5) at Indianapolis
You know, I’ve always liked Jeff Garcia. He seems humble and hard working. I root for the guy. And I hope he finds a way to have one last shining moment as Philly’s starter. But I’m not holding my breath or anything. The Colts rebound from their first loss of the season with a blowout here, topping the Eagles by 17, minimum. (Oh, right, Psssst. Hey, Andy. That’s Brian Westbrook over there. You’re up against the league’s worst run D and you don’t have your star quarterback . Hand Westbrook the damned ball. This could be your job, man.)

Green Bay (+9.5) at Seattle
Man, it’d be nice to see Green Bay find a way to beat Seattle. They won’t, though. I can’t keep track of who’s healthy and who’s hurt in Seattle any more, but I know it mostly doesn’t matter this week. The Packers will find a way to put up some points, I think, but the Seahawks will still win this one by a touchdown.

I don’t have time to get to all 16 games before the holiday, but I did work through the Thanksgiving day trio. So here’s what you can not expect to see in between courses and naps. I’ll try to get to the rest by Friday. Enjoy your holiday.

Miami (-2.5) at Detroit
Joey’s looking to make a statement. The Dolphins are playing like a team that wants very much to be the “experts'” off-season darlings once again. (Hell, there are even some folks down in Miami looking at the 4-6 Fins’ big three-game winning streak and talking playoffs. Seriously. Check the link. I’m not making this up.) And Detroit just found out that Shaun Rogers hasn’t quite managed to get himself into playing shape yet. Plus Kevin Jones is probably out with a bum ankle. And and then there’s the fact that, as usual, Detroit sucks. Dolphins by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay (+11) at Dallas
Breaking news! Turns out Terrell Owens is a self-absorbed asshole. Shocking, isn’t it? Of course, maybe T.O.’s just too busy relearning how to catch passes to take time to send good wishes to his old teammate. Now would be a good time for Terrell to bone up on his fundamentals, given the fact that the resurgent Cowboys appear poised to snatch the NFC East away from faltering Giants. And my guess is that Owens will have rather a good outing here. Not only because he has a way of coming on strong when the spotlight’s on his team, but because the Cowboys are facing a Tampa D that allows something on the order of 210 yards per game in the air and has given up 16 passing touchdowns this season (only five teams have allowed more) while picking off just three balls (only one team, Washington, has intercepted fewer). Plus, Dallas is facing a team that plays a Tampa 2 for the second straight week; and, if memory serves, they fared pretty well against the Colts. Part of me is reluctant to give the 11 points, both because that’s just way too big a spread in an NFL game and because Jon Gruden is 3-0 coaching against the Cowboys. But then I consider that two of those wins came when Gruden was coaching the Raiders and the third came as coach to the 2003 post-Super Bowl Bucs team that was bad (finished 7-9) but not nearly so bad as this year’s squad. And I also look at the fact that Tampa will be playing for the third time in 11 days. And then I figure, what the hell, I’m gonna go ahead and give the damned points.

Denver (pick ’em) at Kansas City
A loss here and the Broncos will have dropped from first place in the AFC West and a near-lock for a playoff spot (and possibly a first-round bye) to third place in the division and in serious jeopardy of missing the post-season. All that in a matter of just two weeks. And a Denver loss here is just what I expect. Why’s that? Well, let’s start with Denver’s record in Arrowhead. It ain’t good. In the 10 seasons prior to this one, the Broncos have won only two regular season games in Kansas City. Adding a playoff win at Arrowhead to the mix, Denver still only comes out 3-8 over that span. And two of those eight losses came in games that pitted Denver teams that finished 11-5 and 10-6 against Kansas City teams that wrapped up 7-9. That’s not a healthy track record no matter how you look at it. Then I factor in the Broncos’ complete collapse in the second half Sunday night vs. San Diego. And while I know Larry Johnson isn’t quite LaDainian Tomlinson, he is an immensely talented back who’s found the end zone 11 times in the Chiefs’ last six games. I have very little doubt but that the Broncos have it in them to win this game. And I won’t be at all surprised if they pull it together, win here and begin a march into January. But I won’t believe it until I see it. And for the nonce, I’ll take my chances with the Chiefs.

I’m late this week, but I promise my picks are entirely as unreliable as ever. For whatever that’s worth.

Atlanta (+4) at Baltimore
What happens when a team that relies on the run for the bulk of its offensive production — and that has already seen its rushing totals drop by something like 60 yards a game in its last few tilts — runs up against the league’s second best run D? It loses. That’s what. Atlanta probably only loses this game by three, but that’s enough. That’ll make three in a row. And pretty much end the Falcons’ hopes of getting back in the NFC South race.

Buffalo (+2.5) at Houston
As far as I can figure, the oddsmakers have this one sussed. There’s absolutely no reason I can think of to expect anything other than a narrow Houston win. But I’m always wrong about games like this. And this season, so are the oddsmakers. So I’m taking Buffalo.

Chicago (-7) at NY Jets
Jets fans are pumped. For the first time in 827 years, their team beat the Patriots. Looked good doing it, too. And so the way they figure it, the Jets have shot at making the post season. Hell, maybe they can steal the AFC East crown. Now, here comes reality, roaring out of Chicago with a gent named Jones who’s gonna pound the ball down the Jets throats all afternoon long, And that’s it, Jets fans. Because, while its true that sometimes you get to eat the bear, it’s equally true that sometimes the Bears eat you. I’d give 10 if I had to.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at New Orleans
There comes a point in certain seasons when you have to stop considering what a team should be and focus on what that team is. That point, I think, has long since come and gone where the Cincinnati Bengals are concerned. The Bengals are a one-dimensional team. They can score points on offense with the best of them, but their D has morphed from a unit that couldn’t stop the run into a unit that can’t stop anything at all. And when you’re traveling to face a Saints team that puts up an average of 25 points a game (31 per in the last two weeks) and is pushing for a division title, shoddy defense only buys you a loss. I’d give the three and a half twice over here.

Minnesota (+3.5) at Miami
Once upon a time this was gonna be the game where Daunte Culpepper got to show his former team that he’s still got what it takes to win in the NFL. Now, with it looking more and more like the question of what Culpepper can and can’t do won’t be settled until next season, it’s just a boring matchup between a Dolphins team that may be mounting yet another too-little-too-late end-of-season surge and a Vikings squad that appears to be in full-on collapse. Guess I’ll go with the squad that’s on the upswing, though with Joey Harrington under center, there’s no way I’m taking Miami to win by more than a point.

New England (-6) at Green Bay
There’s only one question you have to ask in order to figure out how this game is gonna go: Is the Patriots’ offense gonna play as badly this week as it did in weeks nine and ten? Because if the Pats keep sucking on O, they’re not just gonna lose, they’re gonna get their asses kicked. You can’t keep playing that poorly and expect to stay in game the way New England has. Sooner or later, some team is gonna steamroll you. Me, I just have a really hard time believing the Patriots have a third straight horrible outing in them. And my guess is that even if they play just on the good side of average, they should be able to handle a Packers team that plays OK against the run but has the league’s second worst pass D.

Oakland (+10) at Kansas City
On Monday, I’ll be 40 years old. The first conversation I can remember having about professional football took place when I was five or six. I’m pretty sure it wasn’t the first time I’d ever talked football. So what I’m saying is, I’ve been paying attention to this game for a mighty long time. And I promise you I have never seen a team in such utter disarray as the 2006 Oakland Raiders. You’ve got multi-millionaire veterans who just aren’t in the mood to play hard. You’ve got a quarterback getting punished for speaking honestly about an offensive system that hasn’t been effective since the middle ages. And you’ve got opponents feeling so confident that they’re willing to roll out a rusty quarterback against you so they can be sure he’ll be ready to face a real NFL team come Thanksgiving. That’s as bad as it gets. I think. Kansas City by 21.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cleveland
Last week’s results aside, I still don’t believe the Steelers are one bit better than their record. Of course, I’d say the exact same thing about the Browns. Pittsburgh wins, Cleveland covers.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Carolina
It’s hard for me to understand how the Panthers are giving most of a touchdown in this game, since, on paper at least, it appears the Rams do just about everything other than stop the run better than the Panthers do. I could see St. Louis pull off the upset here. But my gut tells me it doesn’t happen that way. I’ll take the Panthers straight up, the Rams with the points.

Tennessee (+13) at Philadelphia
I suppose if I tried hard enough, I might find something to say about this game. Lord knows others have. But it’s late and I’m just not up to it. Eagles by 10.

Washington (+3) at Tampa Bay
Wanna know what a well-executed corner blitz looks like? Tune in here. I’m thinking a lot of plays are gonna end up with Ronde Barber on top of Jason Campbell. Tampa by 10.

Detroit (+2) at Arizona
The loser of this game very well could end up picking first in the 2007 NFL draft. And that kinda makes me want to root for Arizona here. I’d love to see Detroit pick first, just to see if they’d be stupid enough to pick another wide receiver. And, you know, I’m sure Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Jarrett and Ted Ginn Jr. wouldn’t view that prospect with anything approaching the sense of whimsy that I do, but I’m not them. And, let’s face it fellas, the Lions will probably have a shot at one or all of you even if they end up picking fourth, which is about as late as they’re likely to go. Arizona by three.

Indianapolis (-1) at Dallas
Sooner or later, Indianapolis is gonna lose a game. A regular season game, I mean. (We all know the Colts are gonna lose one in the playoffs, because the giant post-season fold is their sine qua non.) And, sure it could come here as easily as anywhere else. Indeed, if it weren’t for the fact that Flozell Adams couldn’t slow down a speed rusher if he were driving a bulldozer, I’d be sorely tempted to pick Dallas. Still wouldn’t, though. Know why? Because it seems like every other week, Indy goes up against some team that can and should beat them, but the Colts still come out ahead. And I’ve decided I’d rather pick the Colts and be wrong once or twice, than continue picking against them and be wrong six or seven more times. Indy by a field goal.

Seattle (-6) at San Francisco
So wait a minute, Senator Feinstein. Your party is preparing to take leadership role in Congress after 12 years of Republican rule and the thing that’s on your mind is stopping a football team from moving (or I guess it’s stopping them from leaving and keeping their name)? Good use of the Senate’s time, Dianne. Well thought out. Makes me real hopeful about the next few years. Real hopeful. As for the game, I don’t know. Something tells me San Francisco’s gonna find a way to win. But I don’t know what that is, and I no longer trust those voices. So I’m taking the Seahawks straight up and expecting the future Santa Clara Software Engineers to keep the margin to three or less.

San Diego (+2.5) at Denver
I’m pretty sure the Chargers are the better team in this matchup. Even without Juicy Juicenstein. I know for a fact that the Chargers are the more balanced team in this game (by virtue of the fact that they have an offense that shows up every week). And if this game were being played in San Diego, I’d take the Chargers without hesitation. But it isn’t (though we’ll get that game December 7). And I just have the sense that Denver’s gonna be able to trick out a win at home. I’ll take the Broncos straight up, but I like the Chargers to keep the difference to a single point.

NY Giants (+3.5) at Jacksonville
You know those guys who say the Giants are too banged up to win this game? I’m one of them. David Garrard rebounds from his horrible showing in week 10 and Jacksonville wins in a rout.

Midway through the season and if you haven’t figured out I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about yet, it’s because you haven’t been paying attention. Here we go. The road to January officially begins here. And here’s what I do know: there’s a team that has stumbled so far that will win six or seven of its last eight and either just get in or just miss. And there’s a team that’s been hot that will collapse outright. I can’t tell you for certain which team is which, but I do know that the collapse usually happens in Louisiana. Here’s what not to expect this weekend.

Baltimore (-7) at Tennessee
My guess is that when you’re having trouble getting your offense started, the last team in the league you want to see pop up on your schedule is the Baltimore Ravens. Too bad it’s breaking that way for the Titans, but it is. Ravens win by 10.

Buffalo (+11.5) at Indianapolis
I can’t come up with one good reason for even thinking about picking the terrible, awful Buffalo Bills in this game. I did however, come up with three shaky ones. They go like this: Letdown, A-Train and Fins over Bears. So, while I expect to be wrong, I’m taking the Bills in a shocker.

Cleveland (+8) at Atlanta
Take a team that gives up 4.8 yards per carry and send them off to visit a team with the league’s best ground offense and you get what quite possibly may be the quickest game in NFL history. I’m thinking it doesn’t much matter if Mr. Anderson gets the start over ailing Charlie Frye, he still might never see the field. I’m taking Atlanta and giving the points.

Green Bay (+5) at Minnesota
Maybe Minnesota will rediscover the concept of playing offense this week. Maybe it won’t. I have now way of knowing in advance what’ll happen, so I’ll split the difference and take the Vikes to win and the Pack to cover. And I’ll do my best between now and Sunday to come up with a reason why I should care one way or the other.

Houston (+10.5) at Jacksonville
Of course Dave Garrard should be the Jags’ starter. And you know what? That’s all I’ve got to say about this game. Really. Oh, right. Ummm, guess I’ll give the points.

Kansas City (-1) at Miami
You know what’s funny about this game? When I look at it on paper, it kinda looks like maybe Miami could win it. The Dolphins pass better than the Chiefs. They stop the pass better. And they stop the run better. Of course, the Fins don’t have an apparently unstoppable running back who’s on course for a 1,600-yard season. And with the exception of that one big game they haven’t done much other than lose all season. So I’m ignoring what I see on paper and taking Kansas City.

NY Jets (+10.5) at New England
You’d have to be a fool to believe the Patriots can’t possibly lose this game. Yeah, the Pats beat the Jets in the Meadowlands eight weeks ago (at a time when New England’s offense hadn’t quite come together yet). And yeah, the Pats have gone 58 weeks without back-to-back losses. Oh, and there’s the minor fact that the Jets suck. But you know what I can’t stop thinking about? I can’t stop thinking about how Rodney Harrison is out and how if anyone knows what kind of vulnerabilities an injury like that creates in the Patriots’ secondary, it’s Eric Mangini. So, yeah, the Jets could win this game. Could. If only they had even the slightest ability to stop the run. Which they don’t. So while I think New York will find a way to keep it closer than ten and a half, I do expect New England to come out ahead, and, for all intents and purposes, wrap up the division.

San Diego (-1.5) at Cincinnati
How does a team that allows 129 rushing yards per game (4.3 per carry) beat a team with a running back who averages 104 yards per game (4.9 per carry) on the ground all by himself? They either find a way to light it up against a defense that’s missing one juiced-up star or they take a giant hit. I’m expecting to see option two play out, though maybe by half a point less than the oddsmakers want me to believe.

San Francisco (+6) at Detroit
Hey, did you hear the news? The 49ers have found some idiots stupid enough to give them whatever they want to get the team to build a stadium in their community. Just wanted to make sure you knew about that, because it may be the last piece of “good” news you hear regarding the Niners until 2012. Detroit wins. San Francisco covers.

Washington (+7) at Philadelphia
Andy Reid’s Eagles never lose coming off a bye. The Redskins are lucky they’re not 1-7. And that’s the rest of the story. Eagles by six. (And, no, neither of these teams is going to the playoffs.)

Denver (-9) at Oakland
The bad news, I’m afraid, is that we’re all gonna have to endure one more Raiders appearance in prime time this season, when they host Kansas City week 16 (Ho, Ho, Ho, Merry Christmas from your friends in the NFL scheduling office). Watching Oakland play these days is like taking a sharp kick in the nuts. The good news is, nobody has to watch this bloodbath. Denver by 13, minimum.

Dallas (-7) at Arizona
Terry Glenn might not be able to play. And Terrell Owens apparently has forgotten that his job is to catch the ball. That would suck for the Cowboys if it weren’t for the fact that the Cardinals are so adept at beating themselves. I’m guessing Arizona beats itself by about nine this week.

New Orleans (+4) at Pittsburgh
Yeah, that’s what’s going on, Bill. That bum Ike Taylor’s dragging your whole team down. You know, if you really wanna have a chance to win some games, you might try doing something about that addled quarterback you insist on starting every week before he throws another 14 picks. Just a thought. New Orleans wins this one by a field goal.

St. Louis (+3.5) at Seattle
Are the Seahawks who are giving three and a half points in this game the same Seahawks I watched struggle to beat hapless Oakland on Monday night? I mean, I just want to make sure, because I’m a bit thrown by the line on this game. If it is that same Seahawks team (and it would appear it is), then I’m taking St. Louis, with the points or without ’em.

Chicago (+1) at NY Giants
Quick, name four healthy starting wide receivers in this game. Either team. How about four defensive ends? Six linebackers? Get my point? Good. Now you may flip your coin. I’m taking the Giants, mostly because they’re the home team, but also because of the guy who’s preparing to join the pro shuffleboard circuit and because they didn’t just get their asses kicked by a 2-6 team. I won’t be at all surprised if I end up being wrong, though. And if I’m right, I bet it’s a push with the point.

Tampa Bay (+9.5) at Carolina
All the pressure’s on the Panthers here. Carolina can’t really pull itself back into contention with a win over Tampa Bay (unless Atlanta and New Orleans both managed to lose on Sunday, and the Falcons, at least, seem incredibly unlikely to lose), but they can effectively drop out of contention with a loss. My guess is they manage to pull it together, at least temporarily. I’ll take Carolina straight up, Tampa Bay with the points.

So this is it. The last week of byes (after which every team in the league will have played eight games). The last week when you can say its premature for the really good teams to talk about playoff seeding. The last week when you can argue it’s premature for the really bad teams to think about draft order. The last week before Sunday night flex scheduling officially kicks in (and it’s already paying huge dividends). The point in the season at which statistics and trends really should tell you most of what you need to know about any given matchup. Only, that last part isn’t working out so well. The only trend that seems to matter so far this season is that just when you think you know something, it turns out you’re wrong. Oh, and since you’re reading this, one other trend: I’m pretty much always wrong about everything. Or nearly everything. So be careful.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Detroit
You know, the thing about Mike Vick is that he just refuses to be defined by conventional standards. I mean, just when you think he’s a one-dimensional player who’s style can’t succeed in the pros, he goes and plays like this and this. And then when you think he’s maybe turning into one of the greats, he’ll go out and play like this or this. And the thing is, as folks who compete against me in fantasy football will gleefully attest, I am entirely incapable of figuring out which Vick is gonna show up when (no matter how hard I try and how much time I commit to analysis of statistics, trends, opposing defenses, fucking tarot cards, you name it). So what I did is I destroyed a lovely, mint condition vintage Twister set to make a Good Michael/Bad Michael spinner. Put it to use for the first time this week and it came up, “Left hand, Good Michael.” I figure that’s gotta be some kind of amazing omen. So I’m taking the raptors to win, though I like Detroit’s chances of keeping it to within three.

Cincinnati (+2) at Baltimore
From the second I first looked at this week’s schedule I’ve known exactly one thing for absolute certain about this game: It’s gonna bite me in the ass no matter which way I pick it. And the more I look at the damned thing, the more certain I am of that. Because nothing, but nothing leads me to believe that the Bengals have even the slightest hope of beating the Ravens in Baltimore. Still, there’s something within me that simply knows Cincinnati is gonna find a way to come out ahead. I don’t know what that thing is, but it’s there. And so, even though I’m picking Baltimore to win by three (and expecting Jamal Lewis finally to have a big game), I’m pretty much expecting to be wrong.

Dallas (-3) at Washington
I hope everyone enjoys Mark Brunell’s last game as a starter. I mean, I’m pretty sure the Redskins and their fans won’t, but, you know, everyone else. I’m not sure the Cowboys cover (maybe it’s a push) but I’m pretty confident picking them to win.

Green Bay (+3.5) at Buffalo
Green Bay has found a winning formula somehow. Buffalo has lost it. Makes this pick kinda easy if you ask me. Or I could put it like this: In a matchup of one-dimensional teams, I like Green Bay’s offense slightly better than Buffalo’s defense so I’m taking the Pack to win it straight up.

Houston (+13) at NY Giants
I suppose if you can beat Tampa Bay by 14, you ought to be able to beat Houston by 13, right? That’s about what I can come up with, anyhow. My guess is it stays close through the first quarter and possibly through the first half until the Giants remember that they do, in fact, need a win here. Then Eli and the Giants receivers come on, and the thing is over by the end of the third. Giants 27, Houston 10.

Kansas City (+2) at St. Louis
Last weeks 35-28 victory over Seattle pushed the Chiefs record vs. NFC West opponents this season to 3-0. (Kansas City is just 1-3 vs. AFC opponents), so this game represents not only a chance for the Chiefs to capture the Missouri state championship for the next four years (barring an all-Missouri Super Bowl sometime between now and 2010, which seems rather unlikely), but to complete a season sweep of their 2006 NFC rivals. That, of course, means all of nothing. In fact, the only way this game becomes meaningful beyond how it affects the teams’ records is if the NFC West title comes down to tie-breaker number three, which is record against common opponents (comes after head-to-head record and division record). A win here would put St. Louis at 4-1 against the two teams’ non-division common opponents from the AFC West and NFC North, with a home game against Chicago and trips to Oakland and Minnesota in its future. Assuming Seattle beats Oakland Monday night (hardly a stretch), they’d be 2-3 against common opponents with home games against Green Bay and San Diego and a trip to Denver in the offing. That would appear to favor St. Louis (you know, so long as the Rams can win at Seattle next week and pull even in a division race in which they currently trail the Hawks by two games. ) All of which is to say, well, another big bunch of nothing, really. (Sorry for the time suckage, but once I started down this road I wasn’t turning back.) Kansas City runs the ball and stops the run better, so I’m taking them to win by a field goal in what I expect to be a fairly high-scoring affair.

Miami (+13) at Chicago
Daunte Culpepper? Joey Harrington? Cleo Lemon? Shit, man, it’s starting to look like the next quarterback to manage a successful campaign for the Miami Dolphins could be Brady Quinn. I’d happily give four touchdowns to the Fins here; not quite two is nothing short of a gimme.

New Orleans (-1) at Tampa Bay
It’s the “they’re gonna nail us no matter what we do” follies part two. The only way I have a snowball’s chance in hell of picking this game right is to pick the exact opposite of what I think is gonna happen. The trouble is, I don’t know what to think is gonna happen. The Bucs are playing better football than they were a month ago when New Orleans was only able to beat them by three points in the Superdome, but Tampa Bay still isn’t playing particularly well on either side of the ball. Not consistently anyhow. New Orleans overall is the better team, but this is a division game, on the road, and the Saints are coming off a pretty brutal loss (look at the numbers, it wasn’t as close as the final score/stats imply) and there’s still no saying for sure just how much hot sauce Bart Scott put on Reggie Bush’s ankle. (And what kind. I mean if it was just your standard issue Tabaski, that’s one thing, but what if it was something more powerful, something hot as shit? That could present a whole range of long-term problems.) Still, my gut tells me New Orleans will find a way to win this game. That’s why I’m picking Tampa Bay, and giving the points. Because that’s how much I don’t trust my gut these days, especially on this game (and extra especially when hot sauce enters the deal).

Tennessee (+10) at Jacksonville
Two questions: How long will it be until the delightful Pacman Jones graduates to something even more reprehensible (whatever that might be)? And will the NFL actually pretend to care this time around? Two guesses: Sooner than later. And probably not. Oh, meanwhile there’s a game. And it appears the Jaguars aren’t going to pretend no to know who their starting quarterback will be this time around. I suppose there’s no real point in keeping it a secret this week. Jags by 14.

Minnesota (-5) at San Francisco
Bench Brad Johnson? Bench Brad Johnson? After one bad game — against New England? Are there really Minnesota fans who believe their team is better off with Brooks Bollinger under center? Or that Tavaris Jackson is ready to start in the NFL. Because neither of those things is true. Fortunately for the Vikings, it appears that Brad Childress, if no one else, knows it. So Johnson remains the starter and the Vikings beat the 49ers by a touchdown.

Cleveland (+12.5) at San Diego
I believe ya, Shawne. Really, I do. I mean, it’s not like you’ve been so freaky good that no one could possibly suspect you of cheating or anything, right? You know what would be nice? If professional athletes who get caught using steroids would stop insulting everybody’s fucking intelligence by boo-hooing and denying they did anything wrong. Yes, guys, ya did, and most of us will never ever believe you didn’t know it. And you know what, Shawne? Even if all you really are guilty of is abject stupidity, that’s more than enough, because you’re supposed to be a professional, you ought to know better, and you’re team is gonna pay the price. Not this week. Because between your defense handling Cleveland’s stunningly inexplosive offense even without you and LT likely ripping off another three touchdown outing, your team should have no trouble not only winning, but covering. But come next week in Cincinnati and especially the following week in Denver, Mr. Merriman, your absence is gonna be felt. And if the Chargers lose those two games and then just miss the playoffs, I hope you’ll realize that it’s on you.

Denver (+2.5) at Pittsburgh
I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me how a team that’s playing as poorly as Pittsburgh is favored to beat a team that’s playing as well as Denver by any margin, in any stadium, at any time. And since I don’t expect to get a reasonable explanation for the handicappers’ pick here prior to kickoff, I’m going with the Broncos (though I hope I’m wrong, since the Steelers are cooked and I’d love to see Denver take a loss).

Indianapolis (+3) at New England
Lots of folks expect this game to come down to the final play. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they turned out to be right. But I simply don’t see it going that way. My guess is that this game will be decided in the first quarter, if not in the first two or three possessions. My feeling is that if the Colts don’t come out of the first quarter with a lead of at least 14 points, they’ve got no hope of winning. And the way I see things going, I’ve got a feeling the Colts may actually find themselves trailing by that margin before the first period concludes. The Colts may be 7-0 coming in, but they’ve got a major weakness that absolutely everyone knows about: they can’t stop the run. More than that, they can’t even begin to stop the run. Indy’s run defense is the worst in the league, allowing 168 yards per game (5.7 per carry). This despite the fact that they’ve frequently found themselves defending big leads. And while Indy’s pass D looks good on paper if you just look at yards per game (they’ve allowed only 167 on average), it drops to just above mediocre if you consider yards per attempt (6.54), and lower still if you take a look at the fact that the Colts have allowed 10 passing touchdowns in seven games. It doesn’t take too much work, then, to figure out that a significant contributor to the fact that the Colts haven’t allowed many yards in the air is the fact that opponents haven’t really needed to throw the ball against them. And good teams don’t throw when they don’t have to throw. All that considered, I don’t expect the Patriots to have a very difficult time scoring in this game. The Patriots may just be getting their passing game together, but they’ve still managed 215 yards per game in the air. They managed 372 yards passing Monday night in Minnesota (against a team that plays largely the same defense as the Colts). And, most important, they’ve scored 14 passing touchdowns so far this season. That’s tied for third most in the league. You’ve got to like the chances of New England’s wide receivers scoring against that Indy pass D. And then, pile on top of that the fact that Indy’s horrible run D faces a New England ground attack that’s been good for 125 yards per game (four yards per carry) and seven TDs. The Colts, who haven’t run the ball well this season, can’t expect to have much success against a Patriots run D that’s ranked third in the league. So, as usual, if the Colts are gonna win, they’re gonna have to do it passing. That worked well (or as well as Indy needed it to) against Denver last week, but Indianapolis won’t see the kind of defensive looks from New England that it saw from Denver. The Broncos linebackers and corners have been lining up five and six yards off the line of scrimmage this season, which has worked well in general, but which gave the Colts the opportunity to throw underneath coverage. The Patriots will play their corners closer to the line and those corners will harass Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne from the moment they come across (which should be enough to cause Bill Polian to have a stroke). That combined with the current field conditions in Foxborough should limit what the Colts’ WRs are able to accomplish. I don’t expect the Pats to be able to shut down the Colts’ passing game, of course. That would be impossible. But I do expect them to be able to limit it somewhat. And that should be all New England needs to do, since the Colts can’t win this game on the ground. Indy absolutely has to force a shootout if it hopes to win. Trouble is, under the current circumstances, even that favors the Patriots. So as I said at the start of this thing, my guess is that unless the Colts can break out a huge lead early, huge enough to outright force the Pats to go away from the run, they almost can’t come out ahead. And since I don’t see the Colts getting that big lead, I don’t see them winning. I’ll take the Patriots and give the points.

Oakland (+7.5) at Seattle
This one’s easy. I’m not expecting Seneca Wallace to throw four picks or the Oakland defense to contribute two touchdowns (one maybe, but not two), so I’m not expecting Seattle to lose. I’ll take my chances on the Raiders defense to keep it closer than seven and a half, but that’s as far as I’m willing to go.

I’m not getting any better at this. Just so you know. I was 5-8 straight up last week. And, OK, it really, really was crazy upside-down week, but still. Here are my likely painfully inaccurate guesses of what’s ahead in week eight.

Arizona (+3.5) at Green Bay
Geez, coach, it must be nice to know your job is safe until the end of the season. But still, umm, I’ve gotta wonder, who are you gonna blame for losing this one? Green Bay by a touchdown.

Atlanta (+4) at Cincinnati
You know what’s funny? I’m quite certain Cincinnati’s gonna win this game, but I can’t for the life of me figure out why I feel that way. Atlanta plays at least marginally better on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati can’t begin to stop the run, and Atlanta runs the ball like no other team in the league. And while Cincinnati’s passing offense certainly appears to match up well against Atlanta’s pass D, it wouldn’t seem to be enough of an advantage to lead one to conclude that Cincinnati should beat a team that might be able to control the ball with its ground game and win the time of possession battle by a ratio of as much as two to one. So why am I picking the Bengals here? Well, because the oddsmakers say I should and my gut agrees. I’m not giving four points, mind you, but I’m taking Cincy just the same.

Baltimore (+2) at New Orleans
I won’t be the least bit surprised if Baltimore pulls off an upset here. Brian Billick not only needs to get his team’s season back on track, but clearly needs to back up his bye week decision to fire Jim Fassel and take over offensive play-calling duties. And it’s hardly going out on a limb to speculate that Billick will set out to accomplish both goals by leaning heavily on the run. If his offensive line is up to the task (I, for one, still believe that his starting running back can be explosive if he gets blocks), Billick could see some significant success running the ball against a Saints defense that allows 4.9 yards per carry. And his own stingy run D (which has allowed a league-low 2.7 yards per carry and only one rushing touchdown while forcing 11 fumbles), should be able to quiet New Orleans’ typically productive ground offense enough to put the weight of this game on Drew Brees. If he can do that while not asking too much of his own banged-up quarterback, Billick may have a formula for an upset. All that said, I don’t think the Ravens will be able to shut down Brees in the Saints’ stadium. Not entirely. My guess is, Brees will be able to accomplish just enough to propel his team to a one-point victory, which may well come on the last play of the game.

Houston (+3) at Tennessee
Call me crazy, but I’m taking the team that ran the ball down the throat of the Jacksonville Jaguars a week ago to top the team that gives up 165 yards a game on the ground (and that’s pinning its offensive hopes on the notion that maybe David Givens will be healthy enough to make a real contribution).

Jacksonville (+7) at Philadelphia
I don’t know whether the Jags will be better or worse with Byron Leftwich on the bench (I suspect it’ll be somewhat better than with a hobbled Leftwich under center, somewhat worse than with a healthy Leftwich in the game). But I do know that the way Jacksonville has been playing lately, they’re not gonna pose much of a challenge for the Eagles at home. I like Philly straight up. Against the spread, I’m guessing it’s a push.

Seattle (+6) at Kansas City
I don’t see the outcome of this game ultimately having a whole lot to do with the inexperience of the likely starting quarterbacks. Sure, neither Seneca Wallace nor rookie Brodie Croyle (who’ll be the third QB to start for the Chiefs this season if Damon Huard can’t go) has ever started an NFL game, but that’s just the thing: their inexperience should prove offsetting; neither team can or should expect to get all that much out of its quarterback. The difference here will be in the fact that Croyle (or Huard) will have the opportunity to hand the ball off to Larry Johnson whereas Wallace can count on no such support from still-injured Shaun Alexander. That and Arrowhead Stadium spell a Chiefs victory, though maybe only by three.

San Francisco (+16.5) at Chicago
If I’m a player for the Bears, particularly Rex Grossman, I’m looking to put that last game way the hell behind me. I’m a player for the 49ers, I’m ducking. Bears by 20.

Tampa Bay (+9) at NY Giants
Is Tiki Barber’s retirement talk a distraction for the Giants? I don’t know. Evidence suggests probably not. Are Gary Myers, Tom Jackson and Michael Irvin really idiots? Myers and Jackson, probably not. Irvin, unquestionably. Does any of it matter more in this game than whether Bruce Gradkowski can continue to play at a high level? Most assuredly not. I expect Gradkowski will do OK given theinjury-plagued state of the Giants D, but I don’t expect him to play well enough for the Bucs to top the Giants in the Meadowlands. I like New York by a touchdown.

St. Louis (+8.5) at San Diego
Let’s see, now. On one side of the ball you’ve got LaDainian Tomlinson. On the other side, you’ve got a St. Louis run D that has a habit of rolling out the red carpet for running backs. How do you think I’m picking? Chargers by 12.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Denver
The key to this game is supposed to be whether the Broncos D can hold the Colts’ very productive (to the tune of 28.5 points per game on average) offense to somewhere between 10 and 12 points. Any more than that and the Broncos offense won’t be able to keep up. And that conventional wisdom is likely truer than ever in light of the fact that Denver has lost standout left tackle Matt Lepsis for the season. I’m not expecting Denver’s pass offense to come alive this weekend. Unlike many, however, I am expecting the Broncos’ rather stout defense (which has allowed a league-low 7.3 points per game thus far this season) to be able to keep the Colts’ scoring to a minimum. I’m expecting Peyton Manning, who has never thrown a touchdown pass in Denver, to throw two TDs this weekend, one to Reggie Wayne and another to Champ Bailey. That TD, and a second Bailey pick, will prove the difference in a 14-13 Denver win.

NY Jets (+2.5) at Cleveland
I’m gonna warn you right up front that I’m picking this game based on pure personal animus. Because, oddsmakers’ take aside, I have no real reason to believe the Browns have any chance of winning this game. To begin with, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that firing Maurice Carthon (or not firing Carthon but still getting rid of him, or whatever the hell the Browns did) is likely, all by itself, to fix an offense that hasn’t managed to do one damned thing well all season long. And further, I’m absolutely certain that losing Carthon won’t do a single thing to change the fact that running a 3-4 defense with 4-3 personnel has a weird way of not proving terribly effective. But you know what? The Jets’ defense sucks. They can’t stop the run to save their lives. So I’m choosing to believe that Reuben Droughns is gonna have a huge day and bring the abhorrent Jets and their annoying fans back to reality (which is that their team sucks). Browns by three.

Pittsburgh (-9) at Oakland
Set the Super Bowl XL champs thing aside and just think about what it means when you’re coming off a 22-9 win and you’re still getting nine points in a home game against a 2-4 team. You know what it means, right? It means you don’t even qualify as sucky. They’d have to come up with a new word to describe how bad you are. Only no one’s gonna bother to come up with that word, because you’re not worth the effort. And, anyway, if you ever get better, they’ll never be able to use that word again, because no team’s ever been this bad and it’s unlikely no team will ever be this bad again. That’s what it means. In case you hadn’t figured it out, I’m taking Pittsburgh. I do think Oakland’s defense finds a way to keep the margin of victory to more like six or seven, though. So there’s that.

Dallas (+5) at Carolina
Congratulations, Dallas fans, you got your wish. I don’t know how that’s gonna work out in the long run, but I’m quite certain that this week at least, you’re gonna choke on it. Big time. I see more picks for young Mr. Romo as the Panthers win by 14 or more.

New England (-2.5) at Minnesota
I get why it’s so popular to pick an upset here. I really do. The Vikings have been playing well on both sides of the ball. They’re at home. It’s Monday night, so the dome will be loud. And while the Pats are 5-1, there’s this idea out there that because they haven’t done anything terribly spectacular, they may not be that good. Plus, lots of folks still don’t trust New England’s revamped receiving corps. I get it. I just don’t buy it. I see two factors (in addition to the fact that New England is a much better team than many seem to realize, and getting better by the week) pushing this game into the win column for the Patriots. First, the Vikings offense, while it’s been indubitably productive this season, has yet to face a 3-4 defense. I expect the Patriots to be able to disrupt the rhythm that’s so vital to the Vikes’ West Coast style and force Brad Johnson to throw incompletions and take a few sacks. Second, the Vikings play a Tampa two defense, and the Patriots passing game has fared well against that secondary alignment in the past. In short, I expect the Pats to be able to out dink and dunk the Vikings. I also expect a frustrated Vikings team to start making some mistakes in the fourth quarter, allowing the Pats to turn what will have been a close game into a win by seven to 10 points.

Here’s something you should know: I finished last week 6-7 straight up. Would have been 5-8, too, if the Cardinals knew how to protect a lead (or, you know, kick a field goal). Not sure how I did against the spread. And please don’t email to tell me. I really just don’t want to know. That said, it was crazy upside-down week, which only happens once a season. So I expect to turn it around this week. But you certainly don’t want to take my advice at this point (not that you ever did). Overall, I see this as a fairly meaningful week in the NFL. I expect this to be the week when the AFC East is essentially decided, the AFC North officially becomes a two-team division and the NFC East picture becomes less muddy by one team. Then again, I’m probably wrong about most, if not all of that. Here’s what I expect (and what you probably shouldn’t):

Carolina (+3.5) at Cincinnati
If you’re looking at this game and thinking, “I just don’t see Cincinnati losing three straight,” you’re looking at it all wrong. You’re not alone, but you’re still off the mark. The fact is that Cincinnati can lose three straight, because Cincinnati has already lost two straight, both of them games the Bengals were expected to win and the latter of them a game the Bengals not only should have won but very likely would have won but for one obscenely bad call. And what does any of that have to do with this game? Little, except for the rather remote possibility that the Bengals have been too distracted by that roughing call and all the talk about it to prepare for this game. What this game comes down to is whether the Bengals’ pass defense can get its shit together and find a way to stop a Panthers pass offense that has been on fire since Steve Smith got healthy. And you know what? I don’t see it. I think the Panthers are gonna light it up on offense, clamp down hard on D and come out of this very much a part of the race for the NFC South, while the Bengals are gonna slip back behind the Ravens in the AFC North.

Detroit (+3.5) at NY Jets
So what am I supposed to say about this game? Both teams suck. I don’t care if the Jets are 3-3. They suck. You know they suck. I know they suck. Everyone who isn’t a Jets fan knows they suck. As for the Lions, hell, even Detroit fans know the Lions suck. So why should I care about what happens in this game? Yeah, yeah, it would appear to have implications for New England in the AFC East. But it doesn’t. Not really. Because even if they beat the Lions (and if they do, Jets fans will be talking about winning the fucking Super Bowl, you can bet the farm on that) the Jets will still suck. And they’ll still lose five out of their next nine games minimum. But I’ve got to pick the damned thing, I suppose. So here’s what I’m going with: I’m taking the team that has Kevin Jones at running back, averages 3.8 yards per carry, has found the end zone on the ground six times and is facing a D that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 12 rushing touchdowns, to beat the one that has Kevan Barlow at running back, averages 3.3 yards per carry, has five TDs and is facing a D that has allowed 3.4 yards per carry and just one rushing score. Yeah, I know that’s not the home team, or the favorite, but I don’t care.

Green Bay (+4.5) at Miami
You know, there’s a part of me that says, “You know, Green Bay might just win this game.” And then there’s another part of me that gives that first part of me the fisheye and says, “What are you, some kind of an imbecile?” Then that first part of me says, “Listen here. I’ll have you know that the Packers … .” Oh, hell, who cares. I’m going with the dude with the attitude. Dolphins by six.

Jacksonville (-9.5) at Houston
It’s true, Houston really has managed just under 68 yards per game on the ground this season. Not only is that the worst average in the league, it’s less than seven teams manage in a typical half. Don’t worry, though, because Wali Lundy is ready to start again, so that should fix that problem. Oh, right, there’s also the fact that Houston can’t stop the run. Or the pass. Should be a terrific game. Just terrific. Jacksonville by … oh, I don’t know. Just for fun, let’s go with 41.

New England (-5.5) at Buffalo
I don’t want to give anyone the impression that I think the Patriots can’t possibly lose this game. They can. Hell, it was only six weeks ago that New England damned near did lose to Buffalo. And that was a home game. Still, I think there are a few factors worth considering. First, the Pats haven’t exactly found it impossible to win in Western New York in recent years. Last season, the Pats went to Buffalo in week 14, six weeks after struggling to beat the Bills in Foxborough (the Pats had to overcome a 16-7 fourth-quarter lead to win that game) and walked away with a 35-7 victory. In 2004, the Pats beat the Bills handily in both matchups, including a 31-17 victory at Buffalo in week four. And while the Pats opened their 2003 season with a 31-0 loss at Buffalo, that game is the only one of the last 12 games between the two teams to go the Bills’ way. That doesn’t mean anything, of course, except that there doesn’t appear to be much by way of home field going for the Bills this weekend. More important, that week one game pitted the Patriots against the Bills for the first time since Dick Jauron took over as Buffalo’s head coach. No one, not even the great genius, could have accurately predicted what Jauron’s Bills would look like in a regular season game. Now we know. And Belichick knows. Which means he knows how to scheme. That’s not good news for the Bills. Then there’s the fact that the Pats offense has only begun to come together in any real way. And with Chad Jackson finally off the injury report and apparently ready to make a real contribution, that O likely will only get better. That should work out well against a Buffalo defense that’s been surrendering 323 yards and 21 points a game, and that last week allowed nearly 400 offensive yards to the, ahem, Detroit Lions. I just don’t see Buffalo in this game having anything approaching the kind of success they enjoyed in week one. And I see the Patriots cruising to a 5-1 record and a virtually assured AFC East championship. I’ll give the five and a half, too.

Philadelphia (-5) at Tampa Bay
For two weeks now, I’ve been waiting for Bruce Gradkowski to start playing like the undrafted rookie he is. And for two weeks, he’s failed to do it. This week, unless it turns the refs really do expect defenses to cuddle Gradkowski to the ground, I’m kind of expecting the Eagles and their impressive, sack-happy pass rush to give the kid a proper welcome to the league. I’m taking the Eagles and giving the points.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Atlanta
The Steelers can’t afford to lose this game. Then again, neither can the Falcons. With Baltimore off and Cincinnati likely to have rather a tough time of things with Carolina, the Steelers have the potential, with a win, to make a statement that they’re not out of it yet at the very least. Should Cincy drop a third-straight game, a Pittsburgh win would make the AFC South a three-team division. A Pittsburgh loss, on the other hand, would raise the question of whether the team’s week six evisceration of Kansas City was little more than an upside-down week fluke, and would leave the Steelers, at 2-4, very much on the outside of the emerging playoff picture. The Falcons, on the other hand, need to win both to remain competitive in an increasingly touch NFC South race — the Saints, apparently, are for real, and the Panthers, as noted above, are a different team now that Steve Smith is back on the field – and to demonstrate that they can still beat good teams, something they haven’t done since week one when they surprised Carolina (they’ve since beaten Tampa Bay and Arizona and had their asses kicked by New Orleans and the New York Giants). Of course, none of this means all that much to where this game is going. In the end, it’s not like one team clearly needs a win more than the other. And that sucks, because this game is a bastard to pick and it’d be nice to have something there that made you feel like someone had an emotional edge. Maybe the answers in the stats. You start with the rush, since that’s where it’s at for both of these teams on both sides of the ball. On paper, it looks fairly even there. Atlanta’s offense has the better numbers (6.4 yards per carry and four touchdowns vs. Pittsburgh’s 4.2 per carry and six TDs). Defensively, they flip-flop. Atlanta allows 4.2 yards per rush and has surrendered two TDs on the ground, while Pittsburgh only allows 3.2 yards per rush and has given up three rushing touchdowns. That would appear to be a wash, since in looking at those numbers you’d have to conclude that both teams can earn first downs on the ground. And both need to, because their offenses tend to falter when forced to go to the air. Pittsburgh’s good for just 191 passing yards a game and has scored just five touchdowns through the air, while Atlanta’s passing offense is last in the league with 114 yards per game and three TDs — and both teams allow too damned many sacks. Both unsturdy pass Os this week face solidly middle-of-the-road pass Ds that give up 200-ish yards per game and do a good job of getting to the quarterback (though the Steelers have a bad habit of surrendering passing touchdowns). The trouble is, I think both teams’ rushing numbers have been skewed slightly by their last games. The Steelers offense racked up 219 rushing yards vs. the Chiefs, which isn’t all that shocking given that the Steelers led pretty much from the get-go and that Damon Huard threw a pick pretty much every time he touched the ball, giving Pittsburgh a lot of possessions to extend their lead. The Steelers also scored half their season total of rushing touchdowns in that game. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense surrendered a rather atypical 259 rushing yards to the Giants. That’s 150 more than the Falcons have allowed on average this season (even factoring in the numbers from the Giants game) and 100 more than the Giants have averaged. Now, you can argue that those results aren’t freaky, but indications of what these two teams are really all about, but I’m not buying it. Not without further evidence. Because what I’ve seen so far this season is that Pittsburgh can’t run the ball up the middle, which makes running difficult for any team. And the numbers speak for themselves on that offensive performance by the Giants. I also have to look at the fact that Ed Hartwell will be back on the field for the first time this season, which should make Atlanta’s run D even better. And I have to consider the fact that Atlanta has a giveaway/takeaway ratio of +6 while Pittsburgh stands at -1, which, considering the fact that Pittsburgh was +2 within that Kansas City game last week, says quite a bit. So my expectation here is that Atlanta will be able to both establish and stop the run better than Pittsburgh, which, combined with home field, should let the Falcons escape with a win, if only by a point, and move the Steelers one giant step closer to painful post-championship irrelevance.

San Diego (-5) at Kansas City
As noted just above, the Chiefs took an absolutely merciless beating at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. And I don’t know about you, but I’m looking at the Chargers and thinking they’re a better team than the Steelers. So I don’t know what I could possibly expect except a big (read: 10-plus points) San Diego win.

Denver (-4.5) at Cleveland
You know what? I don’t care how bad Cleveland is, until Denver demonstrates an ability to put up more than one touchdown in a game, I’m not taking them to win any game by more than a point or two. Of course, I’m still picking the Broncos to win this one straight up. I mean, I hate Denver and all, but I’m not crazy.

Arizona (-3) at Oakland
Here’s a challenge for you in three parts,Dennis. First, see if you can coach your team into blowing yet another double-digit lead, only this time do it against the worst team in professional football. Then, do your damnedest to prevent your head from actually exploding this time. And last, try to figure out who to fire next, because the problem certainly isn’t you, right? Or don’t. Maybe just hold onto whatever lead you build and beat the Raiders. By, say, seven. You ought at least to be able to pull that off.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Seattle
Every day, I’m more and more sure I made the right decision when I traded Shaun Alexander away in my fantasy league a few weeks back. Because the more I read about how great he’s doing, the more certain I become that Alexander either won’t see the field again this season, or will come back and never quite get fully healthy. Of course, none of that matters this week. Seattle and its lovely bouquet of wide receivers (sure though they are to wilt as the season wears on) take this one by six.

Washington (+9) at Indianapolis
So it would appear the Redskins are going to be the odd team out in the highly competitive NFC East. And for this, Dan Snyder has mortgaged the future of his franchise. Pity. Colts by 14. (And, oh, Redskins, in case you happen to be reading, one thing you might try — this is just an idea from a guy who’s never been a professional football player or coach — is playing defense. Well, that’s what I’d do anyhow.)

NY Giants (+3) at Dallas
No, Tiki Barber’s not gonna put up the kind of numbers against this Dallas front seven that he’s managed against other opponents this season. (Certainly nothing like the 227 all-purpose yards he logged last week in Atlanta.) And seeing what happens when Tiki can’t carry the team should make the Giants very, very concerned about their long-term outlook. It’s hard to win consecutive road games in the NFL. Harder still when they come against good teams. And even harder when the second puts you up against a divisional rival (it’s hard enough to beat division teams on the road under ideal circumstances). So, ultimately, I’m not expecting much from the Giants here. As for T.O., Drew and the rest of the Cowboys offense, I expect they’ll do just fine against a Giants defensive front that’s still vulnerable and a secondary that remains mistake-prone. I can’t imagine Terrell logs three TDs again, but I don’t expect he’ll need to. I’m taking Dallas straight up and looking for a push vs. the spread.

Better late than never, I hope. One thing I can predict for certain this week is that the favorites won’t all win again. They almost never do. Now, try to find the upset(s). That’s the hard part.

Buffalo (pick ’em) at Detroit
How often do you get to say this? The safe bet in this game is Detroit. Straight up, anyhow. Against the spread it’s anybody’s guess and my only take is that you’re a damned fool if you risk a penny on this game either way. The game is statistically even. I can’t find a single place in the numbers where either team comes out ahead. The Bills have an average defense, a lackluster offense. The Lions have an average offense and (for all the praise it garnered early on) a lackluster D. Both teams played well in losing efforts on opening weekend, but haven’t impressed anyone since. So what you do, if your smart, is pick the home team. And that’s how you know I’m not smart. I’m taking Buffalo. Why? Because I think they’re a tougher team. Tougher minded and more physical. I think they’ll keep slugging until they find a way to win, which they’ll do in the fourth quarter after the Lions either wear out or give up. Or not.

Carolina (+2.5) at Baltimore
I hate the idea of picking games like this as much as I love the idea of watching them. For the third straight week, the Ravens are involved in what I expect to be one of the best, most hard-fought games of the week. I’ve picked them in the previous two (and been right once, when they hosted the Chargers in week four). And my inclination is to stick with them and look for two out of three. That’s a tough thing to do, though. To begin with, that Monday night game in Denver was buh-rutal. And you can add to that the fact that the Ravens are coming off an even shorter week than most post-MNF teams. Plus, Carolina has been playing some great football since they got Steve Smith back in the starting lineup. I started to look at the stats and quickly came to two conclusions: First, the work wasn’t gonna get me any closer to a prediction, because it’s all too close. Second, the stats kind of don’t matter here. Carolina is clearly a different team with Smith in the roster than it was without him, which makes it hard to figure out what the team’s real numbers are. And Baltimore was either just exposed by Denver, in which case its stats through week four are fairly meaningless, or had a fluke of a game that will have skewed its overall stats in entirely the wrong direction. I’m thinking the latter — you kind of have to when you consider both the fact that the Broncos have made other good teams look bad this season and the fact that Steve McNair, a quarterback not given to making mistakes looked like a rookie at times during that Broncos game, throwing as many picks in that one game as he’d thrown all season going in — but the fact of the matter is that Baltimore’s offense hasn’t really performed exceptionally all season (the Ravens are winning games on defense and everyone knows it), so its hard for me to simply take it on faith that Baltimore is guaranteed to rebound. So what do you do? Well, first of all, you keep your money away from this game. (Really, if you need a bet to make this one interesting, you need to ask yourself whether you have a serious gambling problem or whether you’re really a football fan.) And if you’re picking in a pool or something you flip a coin. I went with a dollar coin that I got out of the stamp machine at the post office. Sacagawea told me the Ravens would win it by a point on the last play of the game. So that’s what I’m going with.

Cincinnati (-6) at Tampa Bay
Give Bruce Gradkowski his props. The kid had a very nice day in his debut as a starter at New Orleans last weekend. They’ll never be able to take that away from him. The question now is what happens when he faces a (well rested) team that’s had a chance to study some tape. I’m thinking the oddsmakers got this one almost exactly right. I like the Bengals by a touchdown with the extra point.

Houston (+13) at Dallas
The conventional wisdom on this game is that Drew Bledsoe bounces back from his poor showing in Philadelphia and Terrell Owens gets an answer to his oft-quoted big question, which is to say the Cowboys sail. And considering the fact that Houston gives up a league-worst 295 passing yards and better than 28 points a game, you’ve gotta figure the conventional wisdom is pretty much on the money. I hate giving big points in NFL games, but I don’t really see where I have a choice here.

NY Giants (+2.5) at Atlanta
Everyone knows what this game comes down to, right? It’s all about whether Atlanta’s league-best running game (at least in terms of yardage: 6.1 yards per carry and 234 yards per game top the league, though the Falcons have only scored two rushing touchdowns), can prevail against a Giants run D that has allowed only three yards per carry, 86.5 per game and three TDs. It has to be that because Jim Mora keeps talking about how he’s not gonna go away from what his team does well just because you’re supposed to be able to pass the ball against the Giants but not run it. But you know what? I don’t think that means Michael Vick is gonna get through the day without throwing a pass. And the fact of the matter is that when Vick does pass, he’s gonna be throwing against a D that has given up 232 yards per game and eight passing touchdowns in games in which it didn’t have to account for a quarterback who’s as likely to break open a 20-yard run as he is to fire a 40-yard pass. Mix in a turnover-prone Giants offense facing a Falcons D that has a plus-6 giveaway/takeaway ratio and has allowed only 10.5 points per game, and you’ve gotta come away liking Atlanta. If you’re me, you like the Falcons by three.

Philadelphia (-3) at New Orleans
You know, the thing of it is, I just haven’t been all that impressed by the Eagles this season. I know that’s kind of a weird thing to say given that Philly is 4-1 and has outscored 30 teams in the league. Weirder still considering that Donovan McNabb has a passer rating of 107.2 (and is only being asked to throw the ball something on the order of 35 times a game) and Brian Westbrook is averaging more than 5 yards per carry. But, you see, that’s all about the offense. The defense is a different story. It’s allowing 335 yards (105 on the ground) and more than 19 points a game, which is more than any other winning team in the league other than Cincinnati. That is, the Eagles appear to me to be a rather unbalanced team, and that tells me it’s all gotta come crashing down at some point. And there are certainly those who believe this weekend may be telling. The Saints have, on paper at least, a slightly better defense than the Eagles (they’ve allowed 30 fewer yards and two fewer points per game), and their offense, while not as potent as Philly’s has been putting up about 24 points per game. And, of course, the Saints are at home. When you look a little closer, however, you can’t help but note that the Saints D has been getting killed by the run, surrendering 4.9 yards per carry, 123.8 yards per game. That’s not good given Westbrook’s impressive numbers. I expect the Saints defense to spend a lot of time on the field on Sunday. And in the end, I expect the Eagles, impressive or not, to come away with win by somewhere between four and six points.

Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis
So what happens when your solution to losing arguably the best running back in the league to injury is to go four wide and then one of those four gets too sick to play just as you’re heading for a tough divisional matchup with a 4-1 team that’s executing fairly well in every aspect of the game except run defense? Well, either you you’re your magic wand over Maurice Morris and hope the Rams don’t figure out how to turn him back into a pumpkin before the game is out or you lose. I’m expecting the latter, though only by a field goal.

Tennessee (+9.5) at Washington
In which the Redskins once again look like they’ve figured out how to win, even though they really haven’t. Washington by a touchdown.

Kansas City (+7) at Pittsburgh
Can someone please explain to me how a team that has failed to do anything well all season is favored by a touchdown over a team that has at least managed to execute its game plan once or twice? I mean, I know Pittsburgh’s at home. I know the Steelers’ backs are against the wall. And I’m sure they’re going to find a way to win here. But by seven? I just don’t see it.

Miami (+2.5) at NY Jets
Talk about having your backs against the wall. If Miami loses here, it goes from being the pick of certain “experts” to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLI to being one of season’s earliest complete failures. And there are certainly those out there who believe that will be enough to elevate the Dolphins to a victory over a Jets squad that has also accomplished all of nothing this season and can’t play defense worth half a damn. They may be right. And I honestly couldn’t begin to tell you which of these rotten teams is less rotten than the other, so I’m going with two old tricks in making my pick: In a close game, pick the home team. And in any game pick the team not quarterbacked by Joey Harrington. Jets by a field goal.

San Diego (-10) at San Francisco
The rebuilding appears to be going fairly well in San Francisco. But when you’re a team that can’t stop the run and you come up against a team that features LaDainian Tomlinson at running back, you tend to lose. I wouldn’t give 10 points to a home team if real money were involved, but I’m not putting real money on this game, so what the hell.

Oakland (+16) at Denver
You know, I’m very well aware of the history between these two teams and all that, but this game illustrates perfectly why I’m thankful there’s flex scheduling in the Sunday night games coming up later this season. Sixteen points is a lot to give in an NFL game, especially when it’s four more than the favorite has scored on average this season (even if it’s 12 fewer than the underdog has surrendered), but my guess is that all Denver has to do is put up 17 and they’ll cover. Wake me when it’s over. (Or not really. Wait till Monday morning. That’ll give me a few extra hours to dream and pretend I don’t care.)

Chicago (-10) at Arizona
Unstoppable force meets fairly easily movable object. It’s another Chicago blowout. And another prime time dog. This one’s over by halftime and the final margin’s something on the order of three touchdowns. Bring on week seven.

Thank the football gods for the night games this week, because otherwise, there’s just not a whole lot to get excited about. Here’s what you shouldn’t expect to happen:

Buffalo (+10.5) at Chicago
There’s no question but that the Buffalo Bills are a whole lot better this season than anyone (or anyone outside of Western New York, anyhow) ever expected. J.P. Losman is playing well. The Bills D is giving up a relatively low 297 yards and a unquestionably low 16.3 points per game. Given that the team is in its first year under a new head coach, you’ve gotta respect what they’re doing. You don’t, however, have to pick them to beat a Bears team that once again has the league’s stingiest defense (Chicago has allowed just 7.3 points per game) and now also features a potentially explosive offense (258 yards and 29 points per game) led by a quarterback with a passer rating of 100.8 (fifth best in the league). So I’m not. I won’t take Chicago to cover the big, big spread here, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them come within half a point of it.

Cleveland (+8) at Carolina
The Panthers have come to life in a big way over the past two weeks, besting division rivals Tampa Bay and New Orleans to draw back to even after a rough start. Think that’s got anything to do with Steve Smith getting back on the field and snagging 17 balls for 199 yards? Now, do you think the Browns, who have a decent pass defense (on paper, anyhow) but still give up more yards in the air than either the Bucs or the Saints, are gonna be able to slow Smith down? Exactly. I’m taking Carolina and giving the eight.

Detroit (+6.5) at Minnesota
On paper, the Lions have a marginally better offense than the Vikings. In reality, the Vikings have a marginally better offense than the Lions. On paper and in reality the Vikings have a far better defense than the Lions. Advantage Minnesota. Maybe the Lions can keep it to within four or five, but they sure as hell ain’t winning.

Miami (+9.5) at New England
So, say you’re the team with the offensive line that has allowed a bit more than five sacks per game and that just got its ass kicked by Anthony Weaver, Travis Johnson, Anthony Payne and Mario Williams, how good do you think you’re gonna feel about facing Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green? Not too good, I’m willing to guess. Not too good at all. Daunte Culpepper (or maybe it’ll be Joey Harrington)and Ronnie Brown can’t be feeling all too good about the matchups in the trenches this week, either. I dunno. I hate the very idea of giving nine and a half points in an NFL game. And, last week’s results in Cincinnati notwithstanding, I’m doubly wary of picking the Pats to beat that kind of spread given their tendency to play to the level of their opponents at times. Plus, division games tend to be tough. But I don’t see how I could possibly look at this game and expect New England to take it by anything less than two touchdowns. And the loss effectively ends the Dolphins’ season.

St. Louis (-3) at Green Bay
You know, I can’t tell you that I have anything even remotely interesting to say about either of these teams. Neither has any balance. Neither can play defense worth a damn. Both give up rushing touchdowns like they’re going out of style. And since St. Louis runs the ball slightly better than Green Bay, I’m gonna take them. But if it goes the other way I won’t be surprised. And I really won’t care. At all.

Tampa Bay (+6) at New Orleans
Welcome to the NFL Mr. Gradkowski. The 300-pound gentleman on top of you? His name is Brian Young. Hurts, don’t it? New Orleans by a touchdown.

Tennessee (+18.5) at Indianapolis
You know what I think when I read about Bud Adams swearing he’s not planning to fire Jeff Fisher? I think there’s a team somewhere in the league (New York? Pittsburgh?) that’s gonna have one hell of a new coach next season. And that’s about the only remotely interesting thing I can think of that’s even tangentially related to this game. Two things I can’t do: Bet on any team (no matter how good they are or how bad their opponent is) to cover an 18.5-point spread in an NFL game. And pick the Tennessee Titans to so much as show up for this game.

Washington (+4.5) at NY Giants
You know who’ll really make you pay for stupid mistakes? The Washington Redskins defense. You know who makes a lot of stupid mistakes? The New York Giants offense. You know who’s rounding back into form really nicely? Clinton Portis. Last weekend against Jacksonville, Portis looked phenomenal, plunging up the middle down after down and finishing with 112 rushing yards and a touchdown on 27 carries (plus, he had another 28 yards on two catches). The Giants’ run D is about as good as the Jaguars, but their pass defense isn’t nearly as good. So even though the Skins are on the road, I’m sort of expecting similar results. I like Washington to come out ahead by a field goal.

Kansas City (-3.5) at Arizona
Can the Chiefs, hot off their week four dismantling of the San Francisco 49ers, continue to tear through the powerhouses of the NFC West? Sure. Does it matter? Not as far as the big (read: playoff) picture goes. Still, a game is a game. Kansas City by a touchdown.

NY Jets (+7) at Jacksonville
I don’t care who’s hurt,. I don’t care that Jacksonville has now lost two straight. The Jags aren’t losing to the Jets. They’re not beating them by more than a touchdown. But they’re not losing to them.

Oakland (+3.5) at San Francisco
You know what? I refuse to have anything to do with thinking about this game. At all. San Fran wins it. I’d have to think about it too much to say by how many points. So I’ll take the Niners to cover, just because I might as well.

Dallas (+2.5) at Philadelphia
Now this game I’ve thought about a lot. An awful lot. And the more I’ve thought about it, the less I’ve cared about what Terrell Owens is going to do vs. his old team. (Well, that’s a bit of a lie. I’ve got T.O. on both of my fantasy teams, so from that perspective, at least, I’m very concerned about what he’d gonna do here.) The point is, I don’t think T.O. will be the guy who wins or loses this game. Owens can have a seven-catch, 100-plus yard day (with or without a TD) and the Cowboys could still lose. Philly just has a way of putting up points. Or the Eagles could completely take T.O. out of the game and still allow Dallas to come out ahead where it counts. Philly just has a way of letting teams stay in games. The player whom I think will swing this game in Dallas’ favor is Marion Barber. Here’s why: The Eagles don’t have much of a pass defense. They allow 244 passing yards a game and have given up five touchdowns in the air this season. And the reason for this is that Philly’s secondary sucks. They attempt to make up for it by blitzing like crazy. And it’s worked OK. After all, the Eagles are 3-1, first in the NFC East. The Eagles also have logged 16 sacks on the season. (The Cowboys, I should note, have given up only three sacks in three games, a fairly amazing accomplishment considering the fact that they’ve got a statue starting under center.) I expect Dallas to counter Philly’s blitz with screens. And since Barber is a damned good outside runner with a good pair of hands, I expect him to be the guy catching those screens. In fact, I expect to see him doing that pretty much all afternoon long, and lifting his team to a half-game lead in the division in the process.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at San Diego
Look, I could break this game down. I could talk about how neither team is gonna have an easy time running the ball, but San Diego’s more likely to get it done than Pittsburgh. I could point out that the Chargers offense has averaged a yard more per carry than the Steelers O, and note that you have to figure the team with LaDainian Tomlinson has a better chance of moving the ball against a tough run D than the team with Willie Parker. And then I could go on and talk about how San Diego, with arguably the best pass defense in the league, has a decided advantage in that aspect of the game over a Pittsburgh D that allows 100 more passing yards per game. But why bother? Because until the Steelers figure out how to run the ball up the middle and take the pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger, they’re not gonna win games against good opponents. And that’s all that matters. I’m taking San Diego and giving the points.

Baltimore (+4) at Denver
This makes two weeks in a row that we find the Baltimore Ravens in what stands to be the most interesting game of the week. It also marks the second straight week that the game the Ravens are playing is a statistical dead heat until you get to the giveaway/takeaway ration. Let’s take a look: Denver’s run offense, which has been gaining 4.7 yards per carry, but has only one touchdown on the season, faces a crushing Baltimore run D, which has allowed only 2.6 yards per carry and has given up only one TD on the ground in four games. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ lesser run offense (3.4 yards per carry, two touchdowns) takes on the Broncos somewhat lesser run D (3.9 yards per carry, one TD). Maybe there’s a slight Denver edge there, but I’m not sure. In the passing game, we find a Denver offense that has managed only 176 yards per game and two touchdowns (both vs. New England), crashing into a Baltimore defense that gives up a mere 156 yards per game and has allowed just two touchdowns. Meanwhile the Ravens passing offense, though it has a less than stellar 175 yards per game, has found the end zone five times. It faces a Broncos pass D that has given up 215 yards per game, but only two TDs. Maybe there’s a slight Baltimore edge there, but it’s probably undone by Denver’s home field advantage. Then you get to that giveaway/takeaway and compare Baltimore’s +8 with Denver’s -4. That’s a 12-turnover differential (or, allowing for the fact that Denver has played only three games, a differential of 3.3 turnovers per game) in Baltimore’s favor. Add to that the fact that Steve McNair has done a great job this season of taking his time and making good decisions, whereas Jake Plummer continues to try to do too much and to make mistakes, and I see Baltimore coming out of this game with a victory, if only by a point or two.

I’ve told you before I don’t know what I’m talking about. I’ve had one decent week picking so far this season. And yet here you are. Go away, already. Save yourself some time and some money. Go.

Arizona (+7) at AtlantaFirst he is a starter, then he is no starter, then he is. That’s a little Donovan thing. No, not this Donovan. I mean, this one. And anyway, if I have to explain the damned allusion it’s not really working, is it? The point is that, contrary to reports earlier in the week, Arizona head coach Dennis Green hasn’t officially initiated this season’s game of musical quarterbacks. As it turns out, all the talk was just talk and this fellow, who is neither Donovan nor Donovan, and not this fellow, will be starting under center for the Cardinals yet again this week. All of which is really neither here nor there given that this fellow (also not Donovan or Donovan, and also neither Kurt nor Matt) will probably be looking to make up for his piss-poor performance on Monday night. Add to that the fact that Michael will be facing a defense that has allowed 366 yards and more than 21 points per game while Kurt will be going against (I’d say up against, but the odds of him spending much time on his feet seem fairly long to me) a D that has given up just 297 yards and slightly less than 11 points per game and you get a clear picture of which caterpillar is likely to shed his skin to find a butterfly within (that’s getting us back to our original Donovan.) All of which is to say I’m taking Atlanta and giving the points. (This could be much simpler if I’d just let it.)

Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee
Did he or didn’t he? I don’t know. Don’t much care. You know what I do care about? I care about whether the guy, who was my second-round draft pick in two fantasy leagues this season, is gonna be on the field on Sunday. But you know what? You shouldn’t even care about that. Because this week, T.O.’s playing status only counts if he’s on your fantasy team (or the one you’re up against, I suppose), because his reality team doesn’t really need him. Not to beat a team that gives up 25 points per game and is quarterbacked by a guy who was hired the week before the season started and has paid it off with these ugly stats. Maybe, just maybe, having Owens in uniform would give the Cowboys a better chance to beat the college spread in this game, but they probably don’t need him there, either. I’m not putting any money this game either way, because it’s foolish to put money on a nine-and-a-half-point favorite on the road and you just can’t risk cash on these Titans, but I’m thinking a Dallas victory by something slightly less than nine and a half.

Indianapolis (-9) at NY Jets
Well, Jets fans certainly are excited about their team’s 2-1 start. And, OK, fair enough. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here, folks. In fact, maybe we should get right back down to earth. The Jets’ defense is, um, well, it’s not so good. It’s 387 yards and 20 points per game not good. It’s 4.2 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns in three games not good. It’s 253 yards per game in the air not good. And this week it’s facing the Indianapolis Colts. I still don’t believe the Colts are the team they were a season ago, but they’re certainly better than the Tennessee Titans and the Buffalo Bills, the teams New York has beaten to get to 2-1. So let’s set aside the idea that Eric Mangini knows from his years with New England how to knock Peyton Manning out of his rhythm (he probably does, but he needs the personnel to execute and right now he ain’t got it) and get ready for a very revealing trip to 2-2. And contrary to what I said just above, here you can take the road team and give the nine. This one’s a full-on massacre.

Miami (-4) at Houston
You think Pep’s maybe gonna finally open it up against the team that ranks dead last in the league in overall defense and has allowed 321 yards per game in the air and seven passing touchdowns? Call me crazy, but I do. You bet your ass I’m giving the points.

Minnesota (+1) at Buffalo
The second hardest game of the week to pick, but not necessarily the game I’d put second on my list of games to watch (see San Diego-Baltimore below). But for some truly awful mistakes in last week’s matchup with the Jets, the Bills would be coming into this one 2-1, just like the Vikings. That said, they made the mistakes, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them make a few more. In the end, I think home field gets the job done, so I’m taking the Bills, but I wouldn’t be even remotely surprised were it to go the other way.

New Orleans (+7.5) at Carolina
That sure was a nice win for New Orleans on Monday night. Made everyone in the country feel good. Well, everyone except for the folks in and around Atlanta. And those of us who both picked the Falcons and had Mike Vick starting for our fantasy teams. What’s funny is that even after shutting down the best rushing offense in the league, the Saints are still only ranked 13th in run defense. And they’re still giving up 4.1 yards per carry. That’s gotta make DeShaun Foster, D’Angelo Williams and John Fox feel pretty good. I’ll tell you what. In deference to the way the Saints have outplayed my expectations so far this season, I’ll take them with the points. Straight up, I like the Panthers.

San Diego (-2.5) at Baltimore
There are exactly two things I know for certain about this game. And they’re related. First, if I were forced to choose just one professional football game to watch this weekend, I’d go with this one. Second, I have absolutely no idea how this game is gonna turn out, but I’m certain it’s gonna be a sweaty, bloody battle that goes down to the very last second. I have to tell you, I’ve looked at this game every way I can think of and I’ve got nothing. That’s nothing. Statistically, this thing is as dead heat. Or it is at least until you get to the giveaway-takeaway ratio, which I’m not entirely sure matters here. Let’s take a look: We’ll start on the ground, where you would think, based on the fact that they have LaDainian Tomlinson, probably the best running back in the league, that the Chargers have at least a slight edge. There’s no doubt San Diego’s offense has been strong in the run game. The Chargers have averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 218 rushing yards per game. They scored five rushing touchdowns in the two games before their bye last week. But they’re going against a Ravens run D that has allowed just 1.8 yards per carry, 34 yards per game, and one TD. That’s as solid as it gets. Meanwhile, the Ravens run offense, which has managed an unspectacular but better than average (and definitely good enough) 3.6 yards per carry, a respectable 109 yards per game and an adequate two TDs, runs up against a Chargers run D that has given up 3.6 yards per carry, 71 yards per game, and no TDs. So, on paper at least (more on this subject presently), you’ve got a one great run offense facing a great run defense and a better than average run offense facing a better than average run D. That’s a wash. In the air, we find a Baltimore offense that averages 183 yards per game and has scored three TDs while committing one interception, facing a San Diego D that has surrendered just 103 yards per game and one TD while picking off two balls. And then there’s the Chargers’ pass offense with its 172 yards per game, two touchdowns and no interceptions facing a Ravens D that has allowed 163 yards per game while allowing just one TD and picking off a league-leading seven balls. That, too, looks for all the world like a statistical wash. Looking at overall offensive and defensive stats paints a picture that would appear to favor the Chargers. Baltimore allows 6.3 points per game, and scores 23.3; San Diego surrenders 3.5 and scores 33.5. But when you look at those stats, you have to consider strength of schedule. Both teams have played quite possibly the worst team in the league in the Oakland Raiders (San Diego traveling to Oakland, Baltimore getting the Raiders at home). So there’s that. San Diego’s other game was a home contest against Tennessee, another candidate for league’s worst team. Baltimore, meanwhile, has traveled to Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Neither of those teams seems likely to play a game in January, but I’m willing to go out on a limb and say that either would crush the Titans. So that kind of evens things up there. And we end up back at zero. So give/take has to tell the tale, right? If it does, you have to like the Ravens, who lead the league at +10, over the Chargers, who are at a respectable +3. But then you note the fact that San Diego has yet to commit a turnover, and you have to wonder about whether Baltimore’s going to be able to build on its give/take lead in this game. Maybe. But I wouldn’t bet on it. So now you’re like me. You’ve gone through all the numbers and you’ve got nothing whatsoever to show for it. Let’s flip the coin, shall we? Mine came down showing a bird, so I’m going with the home team. You take it whatever way you like. But, shit, make sure you watch the game, OK?

San Francisco (+7) at Kansas City
This is where week’s most popular big upset pick will come from. It’s understandable, too. San Francisco has played fairly well; Kansas City has played fairly poorly; and Damon Huard entered the season as a backup quarterback for a very good reason. Me, I’m gonna take the team with the great running back over the team that can’t stop the run to save its life every time. Against the spread, it’s a push.

Detroit (+5.5) at St. Louis
When, oh, when, will Matt Millen lose his job? Or, put another way, when will Detroit finally begin building a team that can win? I don’t know the answer, but I know it wasn’t last week, so I’m taking the Rams to win and cover.

Cleveland (-2.5) at Oakland
Charlie Frye vs. Andrew Walter? Somebody pinch me. And make it quick. Please. I really, really need to wake up from this one. The Raiders travel another mile on the road to a perfect season: 0-16. (Note to Art Shell: count the damned steps. Those are seven-step drops. And they don’t win in the NFL in 2006, though your offensive coordinator has absolutely no way of knowing that.)

Jacksonville (-2.5) at Washington
I don’t expect the Jaguars offense to get back on track in this game. But I don’t expect it to need to. What I do expect is for Mark Brunell to spend a buttload of time on his back and to throw one more touchdown to Rashean Mathis than he does to his own wideouts. The Jags win 10-0.

New England (+6) at Cincinnati
I’m gonna be honest with you from the start here: I’m picking what I want to happen in this game. There are reasons for that and all (which I’ll get to presently), but it remains the fact that you’re not gonna find anything remotely removed and scientific in my analysis of this game. If you want removed and scientific, you’re gonna have to go and do it yourself. Now for the reasons that I’m taking a six-point underdog to win a road game against a team some experts think is the best in the league. I’ll start with a weird and fairly meaningless stat I picked up listening to Gil Brandt on the radio: the Patriots have gone 52 regular season games without losing two straight. That’s the third longest streak of its kind in NFL history. It means the Pats haven’t lost consecutive games since the end of the 2002 season. Of course, that streak’s gonna end sometime, but the stat’s worth tossing around for fun if nothing else. What’s real and meaningful is that I don’t believe either defense can stop the other team’s offense. The Patriots have had a terrible time against the pass this season, surrendering 227 yards per game in the air. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is throwing for 200 yards per game and has scored six passing TDs. And Cincinnati has struggled against the run, giving up 4.1 yards per carry and four rushing TDs, while the Pats have been statistically strong, getting 3.8 yards per carry and scoring on the ground twice, and even better when Corey Dillon is healthy, which he apparently is. There’s also the fact that last week, I watched Pittsburgh, a team that hadn’t previously been able to run between the tackles, go up the middle successfully on down after down against Cincinnati’s defense. And I believe the Patriots will show improvement in their passing offense whereas I’m not sure you can expect the same from Cincy’s pass D. I think it’s a fairly even matchup, which, obviously, favors the home team. So if you’re smart, you’re picking the Bengals to win it straight up (though expecting the Pats to lose by six is a stretch). But I’m not playing this one smart. I’m going with my heart. I’m taking New England.

Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago
Apparently, Jehovah’s feelings about Seattle sports (or at least one Seattle sports star) do not mirror his feelings for Cleveland teams. So Shaun and the Seahawks have that going for them, which is nice. The Hawks also have a streak on their side in that Mike Holmgren coached teams have taken 12 straight over the Bears (another stat I picked up from Gil Brandt), though I’m not sure that means a whole lot. What the Bears have going for them, in addition to home field, is a defense that has allowed fewer than eight points per game this season, and has not given up a single passing touchdown. Put that D in a situation where it doesn’t have to worry much about stopping the run, and it’s almost bound to improve its stats. Add, on the other side of the ball, a Chicago offense that has shifted into high gear facing a Seattle D that’s almost certainly going to be spending a lot of time on the field and you’ve got a recipe for a Chicago win. I expect the margin to come in at about double the spread.

Green Bay (+11) at Philadelphia
What the hell is this? Are the people at ESPN and in the NFL scheduling office the only people in America who didn’t know six months ago that this game was a blowout? Who’s expecting anyone outside of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to be tuned in? What a mess. Eagles by two touchdowns.