This Football Blog

Hey, I think I’m starting to figure this season out. And now that I’ve said that, you can pretty much assume every one of these week’s game is gonna turn out exactly the way I haven’t predicted below. Here’s what’s probably not gonna happen.

Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay
It’s incredible to think about a week three game having playoff implications, but it’s undeniable that this one does. These teams, both of which were expected by virtually everyone (including me) to battle it out for the NFC South title, have faltered in a big way. One of them is gonna come out of this matchup with an 0-3 record. That means you’re pretty much finished for the season, particularly when you’ve already lost to the Atlanta Falcons, a team likely to come out of this weekend with a record of 3-0 overall and, more important, in the division. The other team is gonna come out 1-2 and still in the hunt for a wildcard berth (and, maybe, just maybe, if Atlanta totally collapses, the division title). Neither team has shown much ability to get things done on offense. And both have been average on defense (numerically speaking). So you take the home team, right? Or you take the team that would have been 1-1 if it hadn’t been for one unbelievably, and uncharacteristically, stupid bit of play calling. Or, as I’m fond of noting, you take the team not quarterbacked by Chris Simms. The Panthers come out ahead (sort of) in two out of three of those categories. So I’m taking them. And since the Bucs’ offense is averaging 1.5 points per game, I’m gonna go ahead and give the three.

Chicago (-3.5) at Minnesota
OK, yes, the Vikings are 2-0 and that’s never a bad thing. And while the teams they’ve beaten to get to 2-0 (Washington and Carolina) don’t have a victory between them at this point, both are teams that were expected by some to at least challenge for their division titles this season. So until we know for certain that both of those teams have tanked, it probably makes sense to assume the Vikings have honestly earned their wins. And they are at home. So there’s that. There’s also the fact that Chicago, while also 2-0, has got their by beating Green Bay and Detroit, clearly two of the worst teams in the league. The Bears probably are, as they’ve appeared thus far, somewhat better than they were last season, which is saying a lot because they certainly didn’t need to improve all that much. But they’ve yet to be truly challenged, so they’ve yet to truly prove anything. Still, I’m taking Chicago straight ahead in this game. Why? Because I just don’t see Minnesota’s offense having much success moving the ball against Chicago’s D, while I think the Bears can manage a few yards (and a few points) against the newly Erasmus James-less Viking’s D. Of course, that’s exactly what the oddsmakers see here, too. So while I’m guessing Minnesota will be able to keep Chicago’s victory margin to half a point less than the spread, I’m certainly not gonna risk any money on this game either way.

Cincinnati (+2) at Pittsburgh
Honestly, if it weren’t for the fact that Cincinnati is facing some fairly significant injuries, I don’t think I’d have much trouble at all picking this game — regardless of where it’s being played. I simply haven’t been at all impressed with Pittsburgh this season. And I’m not just talking about last week at Jacksonville. I’d be hard pressed to judge the Steelers harshly on that performance alone (and I’ll note that the outcome of that game hardly took me by surprise.) As I noted last week, I didn’t think Pittsburgh looked particularly good in their opening night win over Miami. The Steelers didn’t run the ball between tackles much (or well) vs. Miami, and because of their inability to pound the rock, they were unable to establish a ground game vs. Jacksonville. I don’t see much chance of that trend changing with Cincinnati in town. The Bengals don’t defend the run as well as Jacksonville, but they do a much better job of it than Miami. And, unlike both the Jags and the Dolphins (not to mention the Steelers), the Bengals have an offense that has been running in high gear since week one; they can take away the run by forcing you to play catch-up with them on the scoreboard. And the trouble for Pittsburgh comes from the fact that Ben Roethlisberger’s poor performance Monday night wasn’t simply a function of lingering tenderness from his recent appendectomy or of the Jags’ crushing D (though clearly both were factors); it was, at least in part, a result of the fact that Big Ben is a young, slightly better than average quarterback who tends to make mistakes when he’s forced to throw the ball more than 30 times in a game. So what happens here? Well, unless Pittsburgh’s defense comes up very, very big (and the unit indubitably has a propensity to turn games) and keeps Cincinnati from scoring more than, say, 24 points, Roethlisberger is going to be put in a position where he has to throw very often and very accurately. That means picks. Most NFL games are won and lost in the trenches. I expect that fact to be more clearly evident here than it is in many contests. And the outcome is likely going to turn on whether the Bengals’ second-year backup center Eric Ghiaciuc is able to anchor the line well in starter Eric Braham’s absence. I expect Ghiaciuc, who played well against the Jaguars last season in his only NFL start to date, to perform just as well against the Steelers. So I’m taking Cincinnati. And holding my breath.

Green Bay (+6.5) at Detroit
Matt Millen reportedly inquired into the possibility of a trade for disgruntled Oakland Raiders wide receiver Jerry Porter this week. Yeah, Matt, that’s your team’s problem: not enough wide receivers with bad attitudes. What a fuckin’ dolt. The Lions are lucky as hell that they’ve got the awful, awful, awful Green Bay Packers coming into town. Because with the Oakland Raiders on a bye, the Pack is the surest bet to get it’s ass kicked this week no matter what team they’re playing, or where (but especially when Brett Favre is playing on turf; Brett couldn’t play on turf even when he was good). Give the points? I don’t know. Sure. Why not?

Jacksonville (+7) at Indianapolis
If I’m right about the way this season is heading, this game could be the point at which it starts to become clear that Indy is in for a rough ride. Yeah, as I predicted, the Colts’ running game appeared to kick in last week in Houston, when Indianapolis racked up 125 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. But, as I noted heading into that game, the Texans appear to be entirely powerless to stop the run. And it’s notable that while Philadelphia averaged 4.3 yards per carry against the Texans in week one (that’s 130 yards on 30 carries), Indy only managed 3.6 (125 yards on 35 carries), this despite the fact that Philly, playing on the road, trailed the Texans for a good part of the first half while Indy, playing at home, took a seven-point lead two minutes into the first quarter and never looked back. That is, facing the same opponent Indy had more opportunities to run, ran more often and came up with fewer yards overall and fewer yards per carry. Interestingly enough, the Colts and Eagles have swapped opponents in the first two weeks of this season, each facing the Giants as well as the Texans. So, just to test whether the results vs. Houston may have been a fluke, let’s look at how each team fared on the ground vs. New York. In week one, the Colts managed 55 yards on 23 carries for an average of 2.4 yards per. In week two, the Eagles got 107 yards on 30 carries for 3.6 per. Even considering the fact that Indianapolis had to travel to the Meadowlands while the Eagles got the Giants at home, 1.2 yards per carry is a hell of a gap. Now, with that in mind what do you conclude is gonna happen with the Colts face a Jaguars’ defense that has allowed just 57 rushing yards per game, and 3.2 per carry, in matchups with Dallas and Pittsburgh, teams that are known for their run-first approach to offense? I’m thinking it’s not gonna be pretty. And, as you may have read in this space before, the problem for Indy is that if you can’t run the ball, you can’t sell the play fake. And when Peyton Manning loses the play fake, he becomes a much less effective quarterback. Look, I’m not expecting the Colts to completely fold here, but I am expecting them to have a tougher time of things offensively than they did against the Giants in week one, and that was a game they could easily have lost (some would say should have lost, but that’s nonsense — they won, so no one else should have won). The question, then, is can the Jags’ offense be more effective than it was against Pittsburgh on Monday night? I say of course it can; it’s up against a far less potent D. Though much has been said about what a solid unit it is this season, Indy’s defense still is only truly effective when protecting big leads. The Colts have given up 22.5 points per game so far in a season that included a home game against Houston, that’s not what I call impressive. More to the point, let’s just say that defensively speaking the Colts ain’t the Steelers. Nor, frankly, are they the Cowboys, who are giving up an average of 17 points per game, but allowed the Jags 24 in week one. So, yeah, I like the Jacksonville offense to come alive here. And I like the Jags to pull off the upset. The experts say I’m wrong, but I’ll wait and see for myself if you don’t mind.

NY Jets (+5.5) at Buffalo
Lemme get this straight. I’m supposed to be impressed with the way the Jets offense “came alive” after the Patriots’ defense stopped playing midway through the third quarter last weekend in the Meadowlands. Really? ‘Cause the thing is, I’m not impressed. Not even a little. What I am at least mildly impressed with is the fact that Buffalo actually managed to play the Patriots tough in Foxborough on opening weekend, then went into Miami and manhandled the Dolphins. And, sure, the Fins were clearly grossly overrated heading into the season, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Bills are playing are playing hard and tough for new head coach Dick Jauron. I still don’t expect the Bills to be playing come January, but I’ll take them to stomp on the Jets right now. And I expect them to do it by 10 or more.

Tennessee (+11) at Miami
Wow. Looks like Miami finally gets a win, huh? I mean, you never know. Maybe losing alleged liar Billy Volek will prove to be just what the Titans needed to right their ship. But I’m not counting on it. Are you? (Note: I wouldn’t put an actual dime on this game, but if I were forced to bet, I’d probably take Tennessee to keep it slightly closer than 11.)

Washington (-4) at Houston
Well, one of these teams has to come away with a win, right? I mean, assuming either team can keep its quarterback on his feet long enough to take a snap. These teams have allowed 15 sacks between them over the first two weeks of the season, which is to say they’re O lines suck. Yeah, you can blame Mark Brunell for Washington’s offensive woes if you like (and I’m sure as hell not gonna come to Brunell’s defense here, because his performance this season has stunk out loud), but don’t go thinking it begins and ends there for the Redskins. Don’t go buying into the popular notion that everything wrong with Houston can be traced back to the team’s failure to draft apparent long-time professional athlete Reggie Bush, either. The Texans are in the early stages of a rebuilding period (or a building period, I guess, since rebuilding implies there was something there in the past) and those never start smoothly. And, yet, if it weren’t for the fact that Clinton Portis is due to take his place in Washington’s backfield for the first time this season, I’d be tempted to take the home team here. Still, Portis is due back, so I’m doing the sensible thing and taking the Redskins straight up. I will, however, go with the Texans to keep it to within a field goal.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
OK, then. Now that Kellen Winslow Jr. has officially set Romeo Crennel straight on the way a professional football team should be run, I’m looking for the Browns to turn it on like crazy. Either that or get the living bejesus beat out of them by a Ravens team that is, simply put, superior to the Browns in every aspect of the game (except, OK, maybe not at tight end). Baltimore wins this one by a touchdown.

NY Giants (+3.5) at Seattle
You know, I really want to pick the Giants here. I really do. And part of me feels like I should. The Giants have been playing better football than the Seahawks. Tiki Barber is off to a much better start than Shaun Alexander. And there’s simply no way Deion Branch is gonna make much of a difference in his first game in a Seahawks uniform. Still, the Hawks are at home. The Giants are on the road for the second straight week, and have to travel across the country to get to this game. And the fact of the matter is, the Giants got themselves a big old gift last week in Philadelphia. I don’t see Seattle giving anything away, so I’m guessing the Hawks will tough it out and take this game by a point.

Philadelphia (-6) at San Francisco
The 49ers appear to be coming along quite nicely this season. Alex Smith is starting to play like a pro. Frank Gore’s numbers are impressive. And Vernon Davis is obviously going to live up to his billing sometime in the not-too-distant future. Looks to me like the Niners could potentially end up looking like a real football team again as early as 2007. Trouble is, it’s still 2006 and the Eagles have been starting to look like a real football team again already, their complete collapse last week notwithstanding. Losing Jevon Kearse will hurt over the long term, but it won’t be enough to stop Philly from rolling over San Fran this weekend. I’m giving the points.

St. Louis (+4.5) at Arizona
Here’s a little something I picked up that might help Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast with his game plan (if you know Clancy, maybe you could pass it along): the Rams’ new head coach, Scott Linehan, likes to call pass plays when his team is in red zone. Like, a lot. Like, almost all the time. So, you know, maybe don’t worry too much about stopping Steven Jackson when the Rams are in scoring position. Yeah, Jackson’s good. Really, really good. But he ain’t getting the ball. So there’s that. If you’re reading this to mean I have no faith in St. Louis’ offense this season, you’re reading it right. If you’re reading it to mean I like the Cardinals in this game, you’ve got me there, too. And, sure, I’ll give the points.

Denver (+7) at New England
You know what? Just go ahead and ignore anyone who talks about payback in relation to this game. Yeah, it’s true that Denver eliminated New England from the playoffs last season, ending the Patriots hopes of becoming the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. But the thing is, the Patriots aren’t about payback; they’re about winning football games. They don’t need extra motivation. Plus, there’s very little chance the Patriots hold that game against the Broncos. Chances are better that the Pats coaches and players recognize that winning that game was the Broncos’ job, just as it was theirs. Unlike some teams, the Patriots don’t believe they’re entitled to win games. They operate under the belief that it’s their responsibility to find ways to win them. And it seems to work. All that said, don’t think that playoff loss hasn’t been on the minds of the Pats. Tom Brady doesn’t like to play poorly, as he did in that game, and you can bet he’s analyzed what went wrong there a thousand different ways. Bill Belichick, too. You can also bet that both have found ways to make improvements, Brady by eliminating errors, Belichick, primarily, by finding ways to counter those 11-up blitzes that the Broncos ran so well against the Pats in that game (and that both Buffalo and the New York Jets have employed against them this season). What Belichick’s solution will be I don’t know, but I’m assuming he’ll find one, and I’m guessing that whatever it is it will involve Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney logging even more yards on the ground than they did in weeks one and two. I’m also guessing that the Pats D will concentrate on stopping Denver’s run, much as they did in that playoff game, a tactic that could pay even better dividends in this game considering the fact that Jake Plummer hasn’t been on his game at all so far this season. And I’m guessing it all adds up to a Patriots win by precisely the margin of the spread. That won’t be payback, it’ll just be a win.

Atlanta (-4) at New Orleans
Nice story, isn’t it, about the Saints returning to New Orleans for the first time since Hurricane Katrina? Nice that they come into this game 2-0, too. It’s just too bad the Saints can’t stop the run to save their lives, especially since the Falcons have the league’s top rushing offense. This looks like one ugly homecoming to me. Falcons by two touchdowns.

Yeah. I don’t know. I don’t have any idea how week one went the way it did. Three shutouts? In the NFL? Eleven games going to the road teams? Seven upsets? I don’t get it. So that’s one more reason you shouldn’t take my advice. Got it? Good. Now here’s what I’m looking forward to (probably not) happening in week two.

Buffalo (+6.5) at Miami
Got Randy McMichael on your fantasy team? Start him. Start him twice if you can. The Bills put Troy Vincent on IR (or something like IR; they’re gonna waive him once he’s healthy, a move that’s gonna cost them something on the order of $2.6 million in real dollars andcap money, apparently — the folks at ProFootballTalk do a good job of explaining how all that works, and assigning blame for the error, if you’re interested in that sort of thing). And since Vincent was pretty much the only guy on their squad who’s got it in him to shut down a tight end like McMichael, Randy seems like a pretty safe bet to have a big day here. As for the rest of the action in this game, I don’t know, I’m kind of expecting a fairly one-sided affair, though I should note that division matchups rarely go that way. Sure, the Bills played at least a solid half of football in New England last week, and damned near pulled off what would have been a giant upset. But Buffalo’s offense only scored one of the team’s two touchdowns that day. And while the other one certainly still counted, it’s the kind of thing that you can’t expect to happen too often. The Bills D caught New England’s O-line napping on the first play of the game and turned it into a seven-point lead with 14:48 remaining in the first quarter. My guess is the Dolphins coaching staff and players noticed that play and won’t put themselves in a position to make a similar mistake. And while Miami certainly didn’t look like a playoff team in it’s loss to Pittsburgh opening night, the Fins have will have had 10 days to rebound from that loss, figure out what they need to do better and work on it. I do expect Miami’s young DBs to continue to make some mental errors, at least for the next few weeks, but I don’t expect those errors to hurt them against the Bills the way they did against the Steelers. I think if Daunte Culpepper can resist the temptation to throw into tight coverage (those Bills DBs are very good) and find his tight end for some nice short gains, and if the Fins can run the ball half as productively against Buffalo as New England did last week, Miami should be able to control the game and put it away by midway through the third. I’m taking the Dolphins straight up. And if I were gonna bet on this game, I’d give the points. But the reason I’m not gonna bet on this game (the big reason, anyhow) is that you simply never can tell what’s gonna happen in these division games.

Carolina (-1.5) at Minnesota
Man, the Panthers didn’t look good at all in that 20-6 home loss to Atlanta last week, did they? I mean, this is supposed to be a Super Bowl contender and they didn’t manage to do one thing well. At home. Minnesota, meanwhile, did a lot of things well. Enough, in fact, to surprise the Washington Redskins on the road Monday night. That’s not so bad. Maybe the Vikings are the real contender here. Still, I’ll believe it when I see it. In the meantime, I’m taking Carolina and giving the point and a half.

Cleveland (+10) at Cincinnati
Man, it’s one thing when big-mouthed NFL players make guarantees they can’t back up for themselves, entirely another when they do it for their teammates. Browns tight end Kellen Winslow Jr., having successfully made it through an NFL game without suffering a season-ending injury, this week guaranteed that his “boy,” cornerback Leigh Bodden, would shut down Bengals receiver Chad Johnson. And while it’s true that Bodden did a remarkable job of covering Johnson last time the teams met, holding Johnson to a season-low 22 yards on two catches, there’s no way to ensure that anyone will ever be able to stop Johnson twice. And it’s certainly not Winslow’s place to make promises for someone else. It’s also worth noting that Johnson’s off-day aside, the Bengals won that December 11 game 23-20. I’m guessing Chad was OK with getting the win even if he didn’t have huge stats. I’m thinking he’ll probably feel pretty good about his team’s win in this game, too, even if he doesn’t have a big day, and even if the victory comes by a margin of somewhat less than 10 points.

Detroit (+9) at Chicago
More guarantees. Roy Williams, who caught three passes for 36 yards at home against the Seahawks last week, has guaranteed a victory for the Lions. I’m not sure why, but I’m not quite ready to put my faith in Roy. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and take the team with the big, crushing defense. You know, the one that hasn’t allowed a point so far this season. And, hell, I’ll give the nine. Sorry, Roy.

Houston (+13) at Indianapolis
Following this game, you’ll probably hear a lot about how the Colts, who couldn’t run the ball to save their lives last weekend in the Meadowlands (Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai combined for 55 yards on 23 attempts — that’s an average of like 2.4 yards per carry — in what, for their team, really was the Manning Bowl), got their running game going against the Texans. Don’t believe it. Or at least keep in mind that these are the same Texans who in week one allowed 130 yards on the ground to the visiting Philadelphia Eagles, a team that prior to that game hadn’t so much as attempted a run play in something on the order of 100 years. All of which is to say that I’ll believe the Colts have found their running game when the crank out some yards against Jacksonville in week three or Denver in week eight and not a minute sooner. All that said, I’m taking the Colts here and giving the points, because, really, who needs a ground game to beat up on the Texans?

New Orleans (-2.5) at Green Bay
You know you’ve passed through the goddamned looking glass when New Orleans is giving two and a half points to the Packers anywhere let alone at Lambeau Field. Still, while it’s mighty tempting to think that Green Bay can’t possibly open its season with two straight losses at home (and equally tempting to look at New Orleans and think about how hard it is to win two straight road games at any point in the season), you can’t assess this game that way. You’ve got to look at things realistically. And what’s real is that the Packers are foundering. They may be the worst team in the league (though that distinction probably belongs to the Oakland Raiders). So, yeah, the Saints are in rebuilding mode and going nowhere. New Orleans’ victory in Cleveland last week probably says more about the state of the Browns than the state of the Saints. But the Packers aren’t even truly rebuilding. Not yet, anyhow. They’ll have officially entered their rebuilding period later in the season when they make the very difficult decision to sit Brett Favre in favor of Aaron Rodgers. That move won’t signal that Mike McCarthy believes Rodgers gives the Packers the best chance of winning. It will signal that McCarthy knows he’s gotta see if Rodgers has the stuff to lead his team into the future before he has to decide whether to take Brady Quinn with the number one or number two pick in the 2007 draft (the Raiders likely won’t take Quinn if they end up with the top pick regardless of how badly they need a quarterback, because the Raiders have been shy of drafting QBs in the first round ever since Todd Marinovich’s giant flameout). So, setting the location aside, I see a contest between a team that’s rebuilding on the able shoulders of Reggie Bush and a team that’s collapsing and doesn’t quite know where to turn. I’m taking the guys on the upswing. And if I’m gonna take New Orleans on the road, I guess I might as well give the points.

NY Giants (+3) at Philadelphia
In week one, the Giants outplayed the Indianapolis Colts in just about every aspect of the game and still came away with a loss. That’s rough, but it happens. The Eagles, meanwhile, victimized the crap out of a Houston Texans team that’s still got a long way to go in its rebuilding process. You take the win, but maybe don’t get too worked up about how it means your team is back on track and poised to storm the very tough NFC East. If the Giants can run the ball nearly as well as they did against the Colts, and take the run away from the Eagles half as well as they took it away from Indy, they own this thing. If they can’t, the Eagles probably come out ahead in a close one (maybe by a point). In the end, I simply have more faith in New York, so I’m looking for the upset.

Oakland (+11.5) at Baltimore
My answers to the two big questions concerning Oakland this week. 1) Was Jerry Porter really cheering as his teammates took a beating at the hands of the San Diego Chargers or was he (as he claims) just goofing around with fans and not paying attention to the game? What the fuck does it matter? One way or the other, you’ve got a very highly paid wide receiver contributing nothing because he’s in a snit over his coach’s demand that he act like a member of a team. Porter’s talented, but he’s a become a problem. 2) What happened to the Raiders’ offense? Here’s what: they hired a guy who’s been running a bed and breakfast for the past decade as coordinator. Why on earth should anyone be surprised that what they produced was a giant bagel? OK, and they’ve got Aaron Brooks at QB. And an offensive line that apparently doesn’t get that it’s job is to stop defensive linemen from getting to their quarterback. (I mean, the Chargers have some terrific pass rushers and all, but nine fucking sacks? You’ve gotta be kidding me, right?) Oh, right, and then there’s the other team playing in this game. The home team. The one lots of people (including me) expected to be much improved with Steve McNair under center. The one some people (including me) expect to make the playoffs this year. The one almost no one, including me, expected to beat, let alone blank, the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last weekend. So how do you think that same team fare’s against the gang that couldn’t shoot straight? Yeah, that’s what I figured. I’m giving the 11 and a half, too.

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Atlanta
The Buccaneers have had Atlanta’s number ever since Jon Gruden rolled into Florida, which is nice for the Bucs and has absolutely nothing to do with this game. Until I see otherwise, and until Cadillac Williams’ back problems go away, I’m taking the team not quarterbacked by Chris Simms or the team that shut down the Carolina Panthers last weekend. Look at it however you want. Atlanta by three.

Arizona (+7) at Seattle
My god, am I tempted to put some money on Arizona with the points. I mean, it’s not like I expect Seattle to go another week without scoring a touchdown or anything. And it’s not like I’m not aware of the fact that Shaun Alexander has had some his best games against the Cardinals. So, O-line problems notwithstanding, I’m expecting Seattle to put up some points here. Enough points to win the game, probably. (The Seahawks are at home, after all.) But I’m also gonna go out on a limb and guess that Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James can have some success against Seattle’s D, which is to say I think the Cards can almost keep pace with the Hawks. Actually, now that I think if it, maybe what I’ll do is take Seattle straight up, Arizona with the points on paper, and put my money on the over (the line is 47). Yeah, that sounds like a plan.

St. Louis (-3) at San Francisco
You know, I thought about using this space to implore Scott Linehan (who doubtless takes time out of his busy coaching schedule to read this blog) to run the damned ball if his team gets inside the 49ers’ 10 yard line, but you know what? Never mind. The Niners gave up three passing touchdowns to the Cardinals from the same distance last week. Just do your thing, Scott. It’ll work like a charm this week. And we can revisit the topic as you prepare to face Arizona (which has a habit of allowing TDs on the ground) in week three. Translation: I’m taking the Rams and giving the points.

Kansas City (+10.5) at Denver
Under normal circumstances, you’d have to believe a team (Denver) that gave up 5.5 yards per carry in week one might run into trouble against a team that features Larry Johnson at running back. But you know what? There’s a reason LJ didn’t do terribly well when the Chiefs hosted Cincinnati last week. Once Trent Green was knocked out (literally) in the middle of the third quarter, Johnson became the only guy on Kansas City’s offense that the Bengals had to worry about, which made it a lot easier to slow him down. Larry’s the whole KC offense for the whole game this weekend, which means you probably shouldn’t expect Denver’s D to repeat its disappointing performance. And since the Chiefs’ D hasn’t managed to stop anything this season, I expect both Jake Plummer and the running Bells (Mike and Tatum) to come up big. I’m not gonna give ten and a half points in a division matchup, but I will take the Broncos straight up.

New England (-6) at NY Jets
I’m not nearly as worried about the Patriots in the wake of last week’s ugly win over Buffalo and Monday’s trade of Deion Branch to Seattle as some folks seem to be. The Pats began to find their way after half time in the season opener. It wasn’t much, but it was all they needed. And 183 yards on the ground looks pretty impressive to me no matter how small the team’s margin of victory. Neither am I nearly as impressed by the Jets and Chad Pennington as some folks seem to be. Yes, Chad had a very nice day throwing short passes against the Tennessee Titans. The team fared far better than I expected them to. So what? What I saw on the highlight reel was Pennington floating an awful lot of passes out there. Some of those balls just seemed to freeze in midair and wait for a receiver to get to them. I hope Chad throws a few of those against the Pats. I’d hope it even more if I had the Patriots’ D on one of my fantasy teams. I don’t. So I’ll settle for watching Tom Brady return to form, Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney continue to burn up the turf, and the Pats run away with a victory by two touchdowns.

Tennessee (+11.5) at San Diego
Not to San Diego: don’t expect the Titans to be as easy to victimize as the Raiders were. Note to Tennessee: don’t expect the Chargers to take it as easy on you as the Jets did. Philip Rivers isn’t even a factor here. LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers D make it a long, long, ugly day for the Titans, who lose this one by 20.

Washington (+6) at Dallas
Somewhere in that 700-page playbook of his, Al Saunders probably has a play that will work. He might even find it this week. But it won’t be enough. Expect Terrell Owens to have a huge day against a Redskins’ D that gave up 77 yards to Troy Williamson on Monday night. Washington will keep this one competitive, but they’ll fall by a field goal (assuming there’s someone in Dallas who can kick a field goal).

Pittsburgh (-1) at Jacksonville
There are plenty of people out there who were extremely impressed by Pittsburgh’s performance against Miami September 7. I don’t happen to be one of them. What some people saw was a running back, Willie Parker, who logged 115 yards on 29 carries (for a nifty average of 3.9 yards per run). What I saw was a guy who did an awful lot of running to the outside and very little up the middle. That’ll work against an aged defensive front like Miami’s. Not so much when you’re facing younger, quicker, more athletic guys like the ones Jacksonville has in its front seven. Some folks saw Steelers backup QB Charlie Batch hook up with tight end Heath Miller for a spectacular 87-yard touchdown. I saw Miami’s young DBs so thoroughly messing up a play that no one was anywhere near Miller, then failing to pursue the lumbering TE at anything that approached full speed. Then I saw the officials award a TD to Miller despite the fact that he’d clearly stepped out of bounds at the Miami 5 yard line, and Dolphins coach Nick Saban make the most half-hearted attempt to challenge a call that I’ve ever seen. Some folks also saw Pittsburgh’s defense making spectacular plays late in the game. I saw Daunte Culpepper trying to win a game all by himself and, in the end, putting the ball in the hands of a linebacker. That is, I’m not sure I saw Pittsburgh win so much as I saw Miami lose. I know that what I saw in the Dallas-Jacksonville matchup three days later was a tough, talented young team digging in and finding a way to overcome a 10-point deficit, rattle a veteran quarterback and make a solid second-half performance by the best wide receiver in the league irrelevant. I’m taking the team that did all that good stuff, especially since they’re at home.

OK, I recognize that I may be some kind of rube. I certainly don’t have Dr. Z’s credentials. But wouldn’t you think a team should at least demonstrate that it can score a touchdown before it gets ranked #3 in someone’s power rankings.

I mean … well here’s what I mean: The Rams offense lined up in the red zone on five different drives in Sunday’s home game against the Denver Broncos and never came away with anything more than a field goal. And what’s more, they scored on only four of those five trips (the other two field goals St. Louis scored in its 18-10 win came on drives that stalled outside the red zone). The other time? Well, that came toward the end of the first quarter when the Rams offense started a drive at the Broncos 2 yard line after a Jake Plummer fumble. Did the Rams do the sensible thing and run, run, run ’til they made it into the end zone? No, because the Rams are coached by Scott Linehan, who consistently calls pass play after pass play when his teams are on the goal line (more on that in a second). They ran once for no gain then went to the pass. The result: second and goal from the 2, Marc Bulger called for intentional grounding, pushing the team back to the 16 with an attendant loss of down; third and goal from the 16, incomplete pass; fourth and goal from the 16, holding, moving the ball back to the 26; fourth and goal redux, Jeff Wilkins misses a 44-yard field goal attempt. A 44-yard field goal attempt. Capping a drive that began with first and goal at the 2. Great football there, gang. Great play calling, coach.

Now, what happened on those other pushes into the red zone that prevented St. Louis from logging a TD? Well, St. Louis fans will tell you Bulger goes soft inside the 20. I have to ask, why was it even on Bulger? Early in the first quarter, the Rams started a series at the Broncos’ 8. Three incomplete passes later they brought in Wilkins to bang home three points. Then, in the fourth, the Rams started a series from the Denver 9. On first down, Steven Jackson (who was averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the day) ran for three yards. (Note: three times three is nine.) On second and third down, Bulger threw incompletions. Then Wilkins came in to hit a 24-yarder. That’s not smart football. That’s not good football. That’s not #3 in your power rankings football, either. Not if you’re me, anyhow.

All in all, in those five trips into the red zone (including, you’ll remember, drives in which series commenced on the Broncos’ 2, 8 and 9 yard lines), the Rams ran the ball four times and passed 11. This with a running back on the field who was averaging enough yards to score touchdowns in just two plays on each of the series that commenced inside the Denver 10. So, I don’t know. Ranked #3? Not by me, friends. Then again, I’m no Dr. Z.

Here we go. Another NFL season. Another opportunity for me to invest a ridiculous amount of time explaining picks that are sure to lose me money. Another chance for you to make some dough by betting the other way. And, best of all, the bad advice doesn’t cost you a cent. So there’s that. Let’s get to it.

Miami (+1) at Pittsburgh
My take on this game has very little to do with whether Charlie Batch can fill in effectively for Ben Roethlisberger. History tells me he should be able to (’cause, let’s be honest, Roethlisberger’s just not that great a QB), but probably won’t. So what? I was leaning toward Miami here even before Big Ben’s emergency appendectomy. And, look, I’m not one of those people who thinks Miami is headed for a Super Bowl or even an AFC East championship (the Fins haven’t caught up with the Patriots quite yet, no matter what anyone says). Nor am I so impressed with Daunte Culpepper’s quick recovery from his knee injury that I think he can’t help but lead the Dolphins to an opening-day upset. I think Pep will have a fine game — and, indeed, a fine first half of the season, and maybe a bit more — but I don’t think that’s the difference. There are two key factors that I believe will put Miami over the top in this game. The first is Miami’s offensive line, which is heading into its second year under Hudson Houck, arguably the best O-line coach in the game (though New England’s under-appreciated Dante Scarnecchia surely deserves consideration there, too), and that now has free agent acquisition L.J. Shelton at left tackle. This is a solid blocking unit that will give Culpepper and Ronnie Brown the room they need to get their jobs done and make life difficult on Pittsburgh’s D and particularly, as the game wears on, a Steelers secondary that lost a key player in Chris Hope during the off-season and that I expect to struggle a bit in the early part of the season (though don’t get me wrong; I still expect Pittsburgh’s DBs to rate in the top half of the league over the long term). The second is Pittsburgh’s running game, which I expect to have a tough time getting started against a Miami defensive front that I believe will be better than advertised this season. Yeah, the Fins front seven is looking a tad long in the tooth, but I have little doubt that if Nick Saban didn’t know they could stop whatever comes at them, he’d have made some off-season moves to get things headed in the right direction. Plus, I’m not all that sure that Willie Parker is gonna be able to get things done all by himself. I’m one of those people who thinks Jerome Bettis’ departure is gonna be more problematic than the Steelers and their fans want to believe. It all adds up to Pittsburgh’s defense spending a bit too much time on the field, which can’t help but to start to hurt as the end of the third quarter rolls around. And that’s why I like Miami to come out on top by about four.

Atlanta (+5) at Carolina
So now it appears Steve Smith, Carolina’s top offensive weapon and maybe, when he’s healthy, the second best wide receiver in the league (because Terrell Owens is still the best, even if he is an asshole) has two bad hamstrings. That’s not gonna help him run routes. Won’t do much for his YACs either, I’m thinking. Still, you’ve got Keyshawn Johnson on the other side of the field. And Keary Colbert. And you have to like Carolina defense at home against an always inconsistent Atlanta offense. If the Panthers defensive linemen can come out of this game with their knees intact, Carolina ought to be able to emerge with a win. Maybe not by quite six (especially if they have to go without Smith), but a win’s a win.

Baltimore (+3) at Tampa Bay
As you may have figured out if you read my season predictions (below), I’m quite sold on the Baltimore Ravens this season. I think Jamal Lewis was rounding into form at the end of last season. Add a prison-free off season to the mix and, so long as Lewis’ hip injury isn’t a lot worse than we’ve been led to believe, I think you’ve got an elite running back on that squad again. I’m also confident that Steve McNair still has a good-to-outstanding season or two in him. Yeah, I’ve read all about how McNair hasn’t performed well since 2003, same as you have, but I can’t stop thinking about the fact that no one seems to remember that in addition to being injured most of the last two seasons, he’s been playing on completely shitty teams. I think McNair rebounds in a huge way joining a team that was, in reality, a quarterback away from being a playoff contender last season. Plus, Baltimore’s defense is healthy again and ready to make a difference. All that said, I don’t see the Ravens getting out of Tampa Bay with a win this week. The Buccaneers are clearly poised to make Carolina’s run to the NFC South championship a difficult one. They’ve got most, if not all the pieces in place. An outstanding defense. A young running back set to build on his successful rookie campaign. A group of wide receivers that includes a proven, and still viable veteran in Joey Galloway and a third-year player, Michael Clayton, whom I expect to live up to the potential he showed two years ago. And a quarterback who may yet prove to be better than I’d given him credit for. Plus, they’re at home. I don’t expect a high scoring game here. I just expect a Tampa Bay win straight up. Against the spread, it’s a push.

Buffalo (+9) at New England
Look, it doesn’t take a great football mind to figure out that the Patriots are gonna win this game. Doesn’t even take a whole lot of analysis to figure out that they’re probably gonna do it by two touchdowns or more. So what do you want me to tell you? That Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork matches up really well against Vikings castoff Melvin Fowler, who’ll be starting his first regular season game at center for the Bills? That if the Bills attempt to give Fowler any help against Wilfork, they’re gonna end up opening the door for one of New England’s DEs, Richard Seymour and Ty Warren? That the Bills have exactly one guy on their defensive line, right end Aaron Schobel, who can get to the quarterback and everyone knows it? That even if Bills corner-turned-safety Troy Vincent manages to shut down Pats tight end Ben Watson completely (which is highly unlikely, but about the only way the Bills will stand a chance of even keeping things close), the Pats will be able to spread the ball around to their other tight ends, tailbacks and WRs and open up the run game? That there’s no reason to expect the Patriots running backs not to put up huge numbers under the circumstances? You knew all of that stuff already, didn’t you? Or if you didn’t, you at least knew that the Pats are a way better team than the Bills, which is about what matters in the end.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Kansas City
There are only two reasons anyone should expect Kansas City to win this game. One is Larry Johnson. The other is Arrowhead Stadium. That’s it. Everything else, from the miraculous recovery of Carson Palmer and the not-unrelated expectation that the Bengals will again be fielding one of the league’s most high-powered offenses this season to the fact that Cincinnati’s defense is a year older (and that’s a year under Marvin Lewis) and on to the fact that the Chiefs should probably be somewhat worse on both lines than they were last year, points to an absolute slaughter by the Bengals. And still, Arrowhead and LJ (mostly LJ) are enough for me. I’m taking the Chiefs to win, though I’m thinking maybe it’s only by a point.

Denver (-3.5) at St. Louis
How on earth the Broncos are only giving three and a half here is a mystery to me. OK, yeah, there’s the fact that everyone always thinks more of the Rams than I do. But the Broncos are a hell of a football team. And while I don’t expect Denver to be able to stop St. Louis from moving the ball, I do expect the Rams offense to suffer when it comes to scoring. That’s because head coach Scott Linehan has a long, long track record (as an offensive coordinator) of getting teams to the goal line only to pass on three consecutive downs, which results more often than not in settling for a field goal. That doesn’t win football games. I’m taking the team coached by the guy who values the run game. That’d be Mike Shanahan. That’d be the Broncos. And I’m taking them to win by a touchdown or more.

New Orleans (+3) at Cleveland
Hey, everybody, it’s Reggie Bush! And, um, those other guys from New Orleans. You know, the guy with the bad shoulder and them. Yeah! Look, this is all I have to say: Center or no center, the Browns win this one by four.

NY Jets (+2.5) at Tennessee
Quarterbacks, quarterbacks everywhere, nor any one to start. Holy shit. Less than a week after the 100th anniversary of the legalization of the forward pass (the move that made football football), we may actually get an entire professional football game in which no one manages to throw a completion. Compelling stuff here, kids. Don’t blink. I’ll take the Titans to win this one 3-0.

Philadelphia (-5) at Houston
You know, I really do understand the decision to pass on Reggie Bush in the 2006 draft. Gary Kubiak comes from Denver. He’s installed Denver’s system (or he’s in the process of installing it anyhow) and we all know that Gary Coleman could start at running back in that system and succeed wildly. But, shit, man, Wali Lundy? That’s gotta scare the life out of you. Meanwhile, the experts are asking who’s gonna run the ball for the Eagles if Brian Westbrook is hurt. And I’m asking, who thinks the Eagles are gonna run the ball even if Westbrook isn’t hurt? When did Philadelphia ever run the damned football? Donovan McNabb and the gang get back on track here, beating the Texans by seven.

Seattle (-6) at Detroit
So now you’ve got first round receivers being cut, defensive line coaches driving around the city (allegedly) drunk and pantsless, and still no one seems to have figured out that Matt Millen will never, ever, ever be able to run a winning team. I’d say some things about the Seahawks here, but there’s no reason. I’ll save it for next week. For now, I’ll just point out the obvious: Detroit is so outclassed in this game it isn’t even funny. Seattle takes this game by no less than two touchdowns.

Chicago (-3.5) at Green Bay
Here’s what you need to know about this game: Green Bay’s new head coach, Mike McCarthy, and new offensive line coach, Joe Philbin, have installed a fairly complicated zone blocking scheme. They’re asking a line that includes rookies at guard on both sides to pull off those blocks. And while the interior linemen, whose roll in the scheme is key, are all experienced guys (they’ve got seven years in the pros at both tackles and three years at center), you have to believe it’s gonna be tough for those guys to do their jobs and make up for whatever trouble the rookies might experience and hold off what may once again be the best defense in the league. That’s gonna put Brett Favre under tremendous pressure. And, well, we all know what the new model Brett does when he’s under tremendous pressure. Oh, and, Chicago’s D finished last season tied for second most picks in the league with 24. That’s 1.5 per game. I expect them to double that average in this game. The Bears win by two touchdowns (one of them defensive).

Dallas (+2.5) at Jacksonville
This should be an outstanding game. Two playoff contenders (both, I believe, headed for division championships). Terrell Owens back on the field and, one has to expect, looking to make a point. Jacksonville’s estimable defense looking to make a statement by either shutting down T.O. or, in the style of the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX, taking everything but Owens away from their opponents, knowing he can’t beat them all by himself. The main question to answer in sizing this one up regards which typically competent quarterback do you trust to be most competent. I’ll go with the one playing at home. Jacksonville by a point.

San Francisco (+7.5) at Arizona
Hey, look, if the league had asked me what team I wanted to face when I opened my new stadium, I’d probably have chosen San Francisco, too. Look for Edgerrin James to have an absolutely gigantic afternoon as the Cardinals toast the Niners. Go ahead and give the points, because San Fran’s got no chance of keeping this thing close.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at NY Giants
The good news: someone named Manning has to come out on the losing end of this matchup. The bad news: someone named Manning has to come out on the winning end of this matchup. The worse news: there will be trademark Manning whining no matter what. Ah, yes, the Manning bowl. What excitement. What ceremony. What a goddamned fucking drag. My only hope of enjoying this thing is maybe Tiki Barber will have a big game. Tiki deserves all the success he can get. For the record, I’m expecting the older Mr. Manning to struggle some this season now that Edgerrin James is playing elsewhere. My observation is that when you take play action away from Peyton, you render him average. And I don’t think either Dominic Rhodes or Joseph Addai brings to the table what Edge did. So I think Peyton’s gonna have a much harder time this season selling play fakes, which I think is gonna force him to throw into actual coverage more often, which is gonna lead to picks. Starting here. I’m looking for Michael Strahan and the rest of the Giants’ front seven to make it a long night for Peyton. And I’m taking the home team straight up.

Minnesota (+4.5) at Washington
So wait just a minute, here. You’re telling me I’m supposed to be worried about an Al Saunders offense because the Redskins didn’t manage to win any of its preseason games? For real? You mean it? Look, I get being concerned about Clinton Portis’ injury. I get being worried about Mark Brunell’s ability to lead a team through 16 games. I even get being worried about Minnesota’s D line. And, hell, I like Brad Johnson (though I wonder who exactly he’s gonna throw the ball to — Todd Pinkston, maybe? ), so I’m not entirely down on the Vikings’ offense. But it’s pretty clear to me that Washington’s not gonna need to score all that many points in this game, because the Redskins defense should be able to keep Minnesota off the board. I’m taking Washington to win and giving the points.

San Diego (-3) at Oakland
I don’t know. I wanna pick the Raiders here. I really do. And between Philip Rivers’ inexperience and Randy Moss’ health almost make me feel like I could. Or should. Or something. But LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Shawne Merriman and Aaron Brooks make me feel like I can’t. Or shouldn’t. Or something. So I’m going with the Chargers to win and the Raiders to keep the margin to exactly three.

So just in case you somehow haven’t figured this out all by yourself by now, I guess I start by pointing out that pre-season football predictions are entirely for shit. No one knows what’s gonna happen during the season. No one. Not the real “experts.” Not your brother-in-law. And certainly not me.

No one knows how any team is going to do, because no one knows who’s gonna be injured, who’s gonna flake out, who’s gonna come on unexpectedly and who’s gonna fit in or not fit in with their new squad. (Not to mention, these days, who’s gonna get shot, stabbed, clubbed, or arrested.)

I can tell you what I think might happen, but I’m gonna be wrong about a lot of it. Last year, at this time, for instance, I was predicting that the first pick in the 2006 NFL draft would go to the Chicago Bears and that the Bears would select Matt Leinart. For those who missed it, the Bears finished with the second-best record in the NFC, 11-5, and Leinart went 10th in the draft to the Arizona Cardinals. Now, I will point out that the Cardinals played in Chicago from 1898 until 1960. And the first digit in 10 is a 1. So maybe there was some odd vibe in the air. You can go with that if you like, but if I were you, I’d just go ahead and make the safer assumption that I’m as clueless as the next guy. Seems sensible.

All that said, I’m gonna make some predictions. Why do something so utterly lacking in value? Because it’s fun. Because it gives me an opportunity to get back in the habit of sounding off about football-related matters, which I haven’t done in a while. And because if five months from now I’m able to look back and say that I got one damned little thing right, that’s all anybody’s gonna hear from me. Because you’ll have forgotten about how wrong I was. And even I don’t have the energy to check the archives on this stupid blog. So there’s that.

Here you go. Not all of these are serious, of course. I’ll leave it to you to figure out what’s what.

Division Winners
The only thing you can ever really safely predict about the NFL is that just when you think you’ve got something figured out, it’ll change. After that, the closest thing to a sure thing is related to division winners. Four or five divisions in the NFL have new champions every season. It just happens. So the question is, which four or five will it be this year?

That’s a harder question to answer this year than it has been in the past. There isn’t really a division champ that has fallen apart in the off-season. And there was really only one 2005 division champ that you could argue was a fluke: one-dimensional Chicago. And the fact of the matter is that the Bears play in probably the weakest division in the league. They may only be slightly better this season, but they may not need to be better at all. It may be, in fact, that a little bit worse could have got it done.

You almost have to conclude that virtually every division winner from 2005 has the potential to repeat. But they won’t. My best guess is that we’ll have new champions in the NFC South, where Carolina should have the juice to unseat Tampa Bay, and the NFC East, where every team is strong enough to win so a Giants repeat becomes unlikely just as a factor of the law of averages. I also like the odds of a new champ in the NFC West despite the fact that the Seattle Seahawks appear to have enough talent to overcome the kind of collapse that has befallen other Super Bowl losers. Something tells me Seattle loses half a step while the Arizona Cardinals come on just enough to edge them (and lose in week one of the playoffs). I see Baltimore making a move to grab the AFC North away from Cincinnati (though I’m less certain of that now that I’ve seen how well Carson Palmer has recovered from his knee injury.) And I see Jacksonville capitalizing on what I expect to be a slightly off season for Indianapolis and taking the AFC South crown.

Playoffs/Super Bowl
I guess this is supposed to be the thing you save for the end. I don’t care. Here’s how I see it breaking down.

AFC Seedings
1. New England
2. Denver
3. Baltimore
4. Jacksonville
5. Indianapolis (who remain the “experts” pick to win it all)
6. Miami

NFC Seedings
1. Carolina
2. Dallas
3. Chicago
4. Arizona
5. Tampa Bay
6. Washington

Wild Card Weekend
Baltimore defeats Miami
Jacksonville defeats Indianapolis
Chicago defeats Washington
Tampa Bay defeats Arizona

Divisional Playoffs
New England defeats Jacksonville

Baltimore defeats Denver (the press asks, can Baltimore be this year’s Pittsburgh?)
Carolina defeats Tampa Bay
Dallas defeats Chicago

Conference Championships
New England defeats Baltimore
Dallas defeats Carolina (with a temporarily “reformed” Terrell Owens turning in a huge game)

Super Bowl XLI
New England defeats Dallas
(“The Patriots got lucky again,” Indianapolis fans declare. “New England still isn’t a dynasty,” Pittsburgh fans sneer.)
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
Dallas player most likely to turn on his teammates and completely self destruct after the loss: who the fuck do you think?

Regular Season Records
Actually, I’m not gonna predict regular season records. It’s just too ridiculous. Too much changes from week to week. I will, however, offer a range of wins I think each team can accomplish. I’ll even be wrong about most of these, but I went through the damned schedule and I’m not just throwing away that time. So here goes:

AFC East
New England, 12-15
Miami, 10-12
Buffalo, 4-7
NY Jets, 1-3

AFC North
Baltimore, 9-11
Cincinnati, 8-10
Pittsburgh, 6-9
Cleveland, 4-7

AFC South
Jacksonville, 10-12
Indianapolis, 9-10
Houston, 4-6
Tennessee, 2-5

AFC West
Denver, 11-14
San Diego, 8-10
Kansas City, 5-8
Oakland, 3-5

NFC East
Dallas, 10-13
Washington, 9-11
Philadelphia, 8-10
NY Giants, 8-10

NFC North
Chicago, 10-13
Minnesota, 5-8
Detroit, 4-6
Green Bay, 2-5

NFC South
Carolina, 10-13
Tampa Bay, 10-12
Atlanta, 6-9
New Orleans, 2-6

NFC West
Arizona, 9-11
Seattle, 8-9
St. Louis, 6-9
San Francisco, 4-6

There will be at least one team I’ve pegged as a sure loser that will have a terrific season, and at least one that I’m looking at to come on or thrive that will falter. And that’s the only regular season prediction I’m sure of.

Random Thoughts

Take these or leave ’em.

Experts will spend the entire season expressing wonderment at the New England Patriots’ ability to win games with so-called no-name players in key positions, contrary to an entire off-season’s worth of dire predictions — as if there were any reason this kind of thing should still be taking anyone by surprise.

The Oakland Raiders will trade Randy Moss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a fourth-round draft choice, and LaMont Jordon to the Dallas Cowboys for a sixth-round selection. The team will reveal that, like Doug Gabriel, the players simply didn’t fit Tom Walsh’s offense. Neither, they’ll explain, could make French toast worth a damn.

Kellen Winslow Jr. will get off to a great start in his first real season in the pros, but will suffer a season-ending injury in a freak rock climbing accident. “It’s not my fault,” Winslow will complain. “No one told me you’re supposed to use ropes.”

No one in the media will be able to understand why the Detroit Lions still suck, even though absolutely everyone not in the media (except for members of the Ford family) will know that the problem is, as it always has been, Matt Millen.

After he replaces Rex Grossman (round about week four) and comes out with a great performance in his first game as the Bears starting quarterback, Brian Griese will be the most picked-up player in fantasy football leagues. Griese will be the most dropped fantasy player a week later after throwing four picks in his second game. Grossman will return to the starting position in week eight. Griese will be back there in week 12.

Brett Favre will throw two picks for every touchdown. At the end of the season, experts will wonder if maybe it’s time for Brett to consider retirement before he does real damage to his team and his legacy.

The Indianapolis Colts and the New York Giants both will field mediocre teams. Both teams’ successes will be credited to a Manning, but neither team’s failures will reflect poorly on its quarterback. The real problems will come in the form of incompetent O-line play, idiot kickers, and a general failure by the rest of the teams in the league to understand the fact that they’re supposed to lose to Manning-led teams.

The Cincinnati Bengals will win the 2006 Ohio state inter-prison flag football tournament.

The Carolina Panthers will, once again, be the only team in the NFL whose players use steroids. At all. Ever. (Except for, you know, in the Sudafed.)

Someone will be given a four-week, unpaid vacation from his $5 million-a-year job because he couldn’t wait until February to sneak a fucking bong hit.

Kurt Warner will get hurt. (I may be going out on a limb here.)

This is very strange. I’m not sure I’ve ever cared less about the outcome of a Super Bowl than I do about Super Bowl XL. I mean, don’t get me wrong here. I’m certainly excited for the game. And I care about the outcome inasmuch as I’m hoping for a really good game (and pretty much expecting to get one). But I’m just not in any way invested in one team or the other winning. Or losing. And that’s odd.

In the past four Super Bowls, I’ve been solidly behind one team or the other, and I’ve had a real emotional stake in the outcome. In three of those games, Super Bowl’s XXXVI, XXXVIII and XXXIX, I’ve been behind the winning team, the Patriots and I’ve been elated at the result. In the other, Super Bowl XXXVII, I was flattened by the Raiders loss.

Going back before that, I’ve virtually always had a team to root for or to root against. In Super Bowl XXXV, I had both; I was rooting for the Giants and against the Ravens. (The game didn’t go my way.) The year before that, I was rooting against the Titans. For the two years before that, I was rooting against Denver. In Super Bowl XXXI, I had the Pats to root for (though it was clearly hopeless going in). I kind of rooted for Pittsburgh, and kind of against Dallas, in Super Bowl XXX, for San Francisco the year before that, for Buffalo the two years before that, and against Buffalo the two years before that. And on and on and on. I think I’d have to go all the way back to Super Bowl XVI, San Francisco’s first win over Cincinnati, to find the last game where I didn’t really care which team won, and in that case I have to say that I had a sort of vague animosity toward both contenders.

This year, I really honestly don’t care which team wins. I can come up with reasons I’d like to see each team take it. Jerome Bettis probably deserves a ring at this point. (And so does Bill Cowher, frankly, though I can’t say I care if Cowher ever gets one, whereas I’d kind of like to see the Bus get his.) No one in the league works harder than Hines Ward, so I’d be happy to see him rewarded. And you can’t not respect Ben Roethlisberger, a terrific young quarterback who deserves recognition much more than, say, Peyton Manning, though obviously not as much as Tom Brady. On the other side of the ball, I’d love to see Mike Holmgren become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with two teams (if only because if he doesn’t do it, I’m afraid Bill Parcells might). Matt Hasselbeck has certainly earned his shot at a ring and I’d love to see him get it. Lofa Tatupu is the kind of smart, grounded young player I like to see in the league, so some early success for him would be nice. So there’s that.

Thing is, I can come up with reasons I’d like to see each team lose, too. There’s a mean-spirited part of me that would love to see Roethlisberger go down the same road as Dan Marino, losing a Super Bowl early in his career and never managing to return. There are those absolutely insufferable Steelers fans (not all of them, of course, but enough to have made an impression over the years) whose hearts can’t be broken often or painfully enough for my taste. There’s the simple fact that I like knowing you can count on Cowher’s teams to choke when they get into a big game. And then there’s Shaun Alexander, who, though he’s clearly talented and he’s a lot of fun to watch, still strikes me as a whiny little baby (mostly based on how he held his breath and stomped his feet when he felt like he’d been denied a chance to play for an individual achievement, the league rushing total, at the end of the 2004 season). I just don’t like seeing guys like Alexander succeed.

In the end, again, I’m left just hoping for a good game. Make it fun for me to watch and I’ll be as happy as can be, no matter which team comes out on top. That said, here’s what I expect to see:

Pittsburgh (-4) vs. Seattle
Two weeks ago, at the conclusion of the conference championship games (both of which went almost exactly as I predicted — got the outcomes right picking straight up, and actually predicted a good bit of how the games would play out), I felt pretty confident that the Super Bowl was Pittsburgh’s game to win or lose. A day or so later, I started to take a closer look. And by Thursday of last week, I was convinced that the Seahawks were gonna win the game. Over the nine days that have followed, I’ve searched and searched for some indication that I’m wrong, but I’ve yet to find any. So me, I’m looking for a Seattle upset. The way I see it, Seattle comes out ahead in every matchup except special teams, where Pittsburgh has a slight edge.

I like Seattle’s amazing offensive line’s chances of giving Alexander the room he needs to gain major yards on the ground and of holding off the Pittsburgh defensive front long enough for Hasselbeck to find an open receiver. I like the Seattle receivers’ chances of making something happen against Pittsburgh’s talented DBs (banged up or otherwise). Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram, both of whom are underrated as a result of having missed big chunks of the regular season due to injury, are remarkably talented. And as Joe Jurivicius (who’s playing in his third Super Bowl) and Peter Warrick made clear when Jackson and Engram were out, the Seahawks are way deep at WR. Even if the Seahawks have to pass a lot, they should be able to have some good success. But with Alexander running behind that line, and with Mack Strong clearing his path, I can’t imagine there will be any situation in which Seattle has to pass unless they’re way behind late. And I just don’t see that happening.

I also like the way Seattle’s defense matches up against the Pittsburgh offense. The Seahawks were almost as tough against the run in the regular season as Pittsburgh was (giving up 3.6 yards per carry to the Steelers’ 3.4). And while they fared less well against the pass (allowing 6.8 yards per completion to Pittsburgh’s 6.3 and 222 yards per game in the air to Pittsburgh’s 198), they’re not facing one the league’s better passing offenses in this game. Seattle also has a better pass D than two of the teams Pittsburgh beat in the AFC playoffs (Cincinnati and Denver), which is significantly a result of the fact that Seattle has better DBs than any of Pittsburgh’s AFC playoff opponents (overall, that is; there’s probably no better single DB in the league than Denver’s Champ Bailey, but the Broncos’ backfield as a unit was young and prone to mistakes). The Seahawks’ DBs were a significant part of why Seattle lead the league in sacks in the regular season. Their pass rush gets extra time to get to quarterbacks because receivers simply don’t get open. Those Seahawks DBs also don’t tend to make the kind of mistakes the Colts and Broncos DBs did, which means Roethlisberger isn’t going to have a big margin of error when he throws the ball. That’s not a good situation for any quarterback, even one of Big Ben’s obviously considerable talent, to have to face.

So here’s what I figure: The game stays close until near the end of the third quarter. And then one team or the other makes a huge play that breaks it open, and the team that falls behind never manages to catch up. The game may be won on the final play, but it will be won by whichever team went ahead late in the third doing something to hold off a late comeback attempt. I kind of expect that big play either to be a big run by Alexander (one of those patented untouched 20 yards into the end zone things he does) or a pick by one of the Seattle DBs that either goes for a touchdown or sets up an easy score for the offense and sucks the wind out of Pittsburgh’s sails. But, you know, as always, I’m just guessing.

I don’t know. That’s what it all comes down to. I’m not sure how we got here (which is to say, I went 1-3 picking straight up last week — though, hey, I did end up 4-0 on Wild Card weekend, so there’s that). And I have no idea where we’re going. That’s the long and short of it. It’s also a pretty good argument for why you should pay absolutely no attention to anything I have to say about the possible outcome of these conference championship games.

Still here? OK. You’ve been warned. So here’s what I’ve got to say in general. There’s a certain logic that says the Broncos, who are at home and who beat the defending two-time champion Patriots last week, and the Panthers, who are by far the better team in the NFC contest, should advance to the Super Bowl. There’s another logic that says both the Steelers and Panthers are playing a third consecutive tough road game, and neither should be expected to come out on top. And yet another logic says since defense wins in the playoffs, both the Steelers and the Panthers should win this weekend (plus, let’s face it, Steelers-Panthers would make for a hell of a game). And you know what? All of that reasoning is valid. All of it makes sense. And I don’t know what line of reasoning to embrace. So I’m just sticking with what makes sense to me, which is, as always, an entirely unhealthy mix of reasoning and gut instinct. That oughta get me all of nowhere. It’ll bit you on the ass, too, if you take my advice. So take my advice and don’t take my advice. Know what I mean?

Here, to the best of my ability, is what I think it all comes out looking like.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Denver
Watching last week’s Divisional Playoff round games confirmed something for me about each of these two teams. It became clear to me, for instance, that Denver is one tough-ass football team. Yeah, the Broncos didn’t play a spectacular game — they logged all of 286 yards of total offense (including just 96 on the ground) and gave up 420 on D (though only 79 of those were to the Patriots’ running game) — and they owe one touchdown to a horribly bad call (the pass interference call on Assante Samuel that put them at the goal line when they shouldn’t have been anywhere near it), but they played tough, the capitalized on the Patriots’ many errors and they found a way to win in spite of not getting everything right. And they did all of that against a team that had won two straight Super Bowls for a very good reason. That’s worthy of admiration no matter how you slice it.

But what I learned watching Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis was a bit more important. Because what hit me there was that the Steelers, when Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, are probably the best team in the NFL. That’s not to take anything away from any other squad. Not the Broncos. Not the Pats. Not the Panthers or the Seahawks or … well, you get the point. And it’s not to say no team can beat the Steelers. They’re as beatable as any other team in the league, particularly if they make the kind of errors the Pats made in Denver last weekend. Nor is it to say that the condition is permanent. Obviously, in this day and age, how good a team is changes with every injury and every off-season. All I’m saying is that right now, there isn’t a more impressive team in football than the Steelers. Forget that the Colts are a classic choke team. Forget that Tony Dungy’s teams never manage to come out ahead in big games. Just focus on the fact that the Steelers came out last week, stared across the field at an opponent that was supposed to be on its way to a Lombardi Trophy, that was big and bad and full of potential, and simply started punching. And they punched. And they punched. And they punched some more. And even when the refs repeatedly sent them to their corner so they could pick the other guys up off the canvas and give them another chance, the Steelers came right back out punching again. They did it until they sealed the victory. And in the process, they did just about everything right (excepting that one nearly crushing turnover near the end of the game). They threw the ball well. They ran the ball well. They controlled the game from virtually the first snap. And they beat the living bejesus out of their opponents. That’s good football.

So what happens when these two impressive teams meet? Well, I think it’s gonna depend on whether the Steelers have another game like the one they played last week in them. Because if they do, there isn’t a thing in the world that the Broncos will be able to do to win this thing. Denver has been capitalizing on turnovers all season long. The Broncos had the second best giveaway/takeaway ratio in the league in the regular season (+18) and we all know they couldn’t have won last week without the five turnovers the Pats committed (one short of the total number of turnovers New England had committed in its 10 previous playoff games, all wins). But whereas the Pats had a bit of a turnover problem ass season long (they finished with a -5 giveaway/takeaway ratio — pointing to a problem they need to somehow address leading into next season) the Steelers were a bit more solid in that regard. Yeah, Pittsburgh turned the ball over 21 times, but they also had 28 takeaways (so that’s a +7, for those who can’t or won’t do the math themselves). The Steelers also controlled the ball mostly well last week against a Colts team that logged 29 takeaways and a +11 ratio during the regular season. So I just don’t see Denver getting the kind of field-position opportunities this week that it got from New England in the divisional round. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers play a defense that’s very similar to New England’s, and I think that’s very bad news indeed for Jake Plummer and the Broncos’ offense. Plummer didn’t look very good last week. And the Pats pretty much shut down Denver’s typically impressive running game. I expect to see much of the same thing this week. I expect to see Pittsburgh force Plummer into making some big mistakes. I expect to see Troy Polamalu put seven points on the board. And I expect to see the Steelers come out on top by about three.

Carolina (+3.5) at Seattle
If DeShaun Foster hadn’t broken his ankle in last week’s tilt with the Bears, and if Julius Peppers hadn’t spent the week too beat up and too ill to practice, I’d be able to pick this game in a second. Seattle’s had an impressive season, there’s no taking that away from them. They’ve got the league’s leading rusher and MVP, Shaun Alexander, working for them. Matt Hasselbeck finally seems to have come into his own as a quarterback. Mike Holmgren appears to have proven his doubters (a group that included me) wrong. And the fact of the matter is that the Seahawks are a pretty likable bunch. But none of that changes the fact that when they’re playing their best football (as they have been for the last two weeks) the Panthers are the most impressive, and hardest to beat, team in the NFC. So if Foster were around and Peppers were 100 percent, I’d just say I’m taking Carolina and leave it at that. Foster isn’t around and Peppers isn’t 100 percent, however. And that makes me kind of uncertain about this game. (Never mind the fact that I’d have a hard time picking both road teams to win this week.)

I still don’t expect the Seattle offense to be able to get a whole lot done. I mean, they’ve had a hell of a season and all, averaging 370 yards and more than 28 points per game. But they’ve struggled against teams with strong defenses, and there are few stronger defenses in the conference than Carolina’s (the Panthers allowed only 283 yards and 16 points per game during the regular season). And while the Seahawks fared well enough last week when they hosted the Redskins (334 total yards, including 119 on the ground even without help from Alexander, who left early with a concussion), they only managed 20 points. And the Panthers are a tougher team to move the ball against than the Redskins.

But I’m not sure Carolina’s offense is gonna be able to give the D any kind of cushion to work with. Jack Delhomme certainly seems to be the kind of cool headed quarterback you want on your side when January rolls around. And there’s no failing to be impressed with the 319 yards and three touchdowns Delhomme managed against a hard-as-nails Chicago defense last week. But part of the reason he was able to do that was that Chicago had to account for the Panthers’ running game, which left Steve Smith with some room to make plays for Delhomme. Seattle isn’t gonna have to worry about the run so much. Sure, Nick Goings has his moments, but there’s a reason he started the season third on the Panthers’ depth chart and I don’t think that changes much just because he’s got the heart to try to step up in the absence of Foster and Stephen Davis. So Seattle should be able to key up on Smith, slow him down some, and try to keep him out of the end zone. That puts a lot of pressure on Keary Colbert, Ricky Proehl and Kris Mangum (who’s the only tight end Carolina has who could ever be classified as anything approaching a true pass-catcher). And none of those guys put up spectacular numbers in the regular season or over the last two weeks. That bodes ill for Carolina.

In the end, while I think the Panthers are probably the better team overall, I think the lack of a running game is going to do them in the same way it did New England in last weekend in Denver. You have to be able to run the ball and stop the run to win in the playoffs. Not either. Both. And I while I think the Panthers will do OK stopping the run this week, I can’t imagine they have much luck running the ball themselves. In the end, while I won’t be the least bit surprised to see the Panthers win, I’m expecting the Seahawks to come out ahead, if only by about a point.

I’m guessing you don’t need one more person to point out that the Divisional Playoffs have been the toughest round of the post-season for road teams since the NFL moved to a 12-team playoff system in 1990. Everybody and their brother-in-law has pointed out that the home teams are 40-10 since then. They’ve also noted that last season, after the road teams went 3-1 on Wild Card weekend (as they did last weekend) the home teams swept the Divisional Playoff round. So there’s that.

You also probably don’t need me to tell you that the reasons the home teams have tended to do so well in this round include the fact that those home teams come into the week well rested after a first-round bye. Or that the reason they’re coming off a bye, and playing at home, is that they posted the best regular-season records in their conferences (and typically that doesn’t happen by accident).

Nor do you need me to point out that a 3-1 finish by the road teams in the Wild Card round means three out of four Divisional Playoff games pit conference six and five seeds playing tough road games for a second consecutive week against those well-rested one- and two-seed home squads. But when I do point all of that stuff out, one fact after the next, it does become pretty clear how that .800 winning percentage has come about.

All that said, it’s hardly unheard of for one, and even two, road teams to win in this round. Two of them did two years ago (Indianapolis and Carolina beat Kansas City and St. Louis; and, of course, Carolina went on to beat Philadelphia and advance to the Super Bowl). Philadelphia did it in 2001 (well, 2002, but it was at the end of the 2001 season). Baltimore did it in 2000 (and went on to win the Super Bowl). Tennessee did it in 1999 (and beat Jacksonville a week later to advance to the Super Bowl). Denver did it in 1997 (and went on to win the Super Bowl). I could go on, but you get the point, right?

So the question now is, is this another 4-0 year, or is there an upset or two on the way for the weekend? I see the potential for two, but I only like the odds of one. And I’m picking the one that involves the two-time defending champs/the team coming into the week with a record 10-game post-season win streak. Surprised? Of course you aren’t.

Anyhow, here’s how I see the weekend shaking out:

Washington (+9) at Seattle
Wanna know how I know the Redskins are gonna win this game? Because I’ve finally stopped believing that the Seahawks are destined to collapse. All through the regular season, I kept waiting and waiting and waiting for the Seahawks to fall apart, the way they always do. But then they kept not doing it. And not doing it. And so now, at long last, I’ve stopped expecting them to do it. And, in fact, I quite expect them to win this week. Because, look, the Redskins have certainly been on a hell of a run of late, and all the credit in the world to the team and to Joe Gibbs for getting it together, making the playoffs and eliminating Tampa Bay last weekend. But let’s be realistic here. The Skins didn’t look all that good in that game. They came within a dropped pass of an overtime in which they likely would have lost. And that was against a Bucs team that’s been anything but consistent this season, and that had a guy with no playoff experience (and relatively little regular season experience) taking snaps. What do you think happens when they take their show on the road for the second consecutive week (see above for my thoughts on that) and play the conference’s one seed, a team that’s been lighting it up all season long? I’ve got a pretty good guess. And, now, I know that a lot of smart people think Washington has a chance here, largely because their defense has been beyond solid. And fair enough. But in a way that’s just the point, because the things the Redskins D has been doing have included scoring and setting up the offense for easy scores. Last week in Tampa Bay, the Washington D scored one of the team’s two touchdowns. The Skins’ sole offensive TD came on a one-play, six-yard drive that was set up by LaVar Arrington interception deep in Tampa territory. A week earlier, in the come-from-behind win over the down-and-out Philadelphia Eagles, the game that got Washington into the playoffs, the Redskins defense not only scored the late touchdown that effectively put the game away, it also recorded an interception earlier in the final period that set up the one-play scoring drive that put the Skins ahead in the first place. So that’s 28 of 48 points over the course of two games that can be traced to great defensive play. And you can’t be unhappy about that if you’re the Redskins. And you don’t apologize about where the points come from. But those stats also underscore the fact that the Redskins’ offense hasn’t been doing much. So it would appear, at least to me, that while there are probably seven (or at least six) teams playing this weekend that can win even if they only manage to come up even in the giveaway/takeaway battle, the one that clearly cannot is Washington. And here’s where the problem comes in, because the Seattle Seahawks simply don’t commit turnovers. Seattle had fewer giveaways than any team in the league during the regular season. They lost just six fumbles and threw just nine picks all season. Compare that to the Bucs, who committed 23 turnovers during the season, and the Eagles, who gave the ball away 28 times. The difference is obvious, as is its chief implication: you can’t go counting on Seattle to give you the kind of opportunities Tampa Bay and Philadelphia did. You can, however, count on the Seahawks to put up more points than the Bucs and Eagles. Or at least you could during the regular season, during which the Seahawks outscored both of those teams by an average of nine points a game. And that, to my mind, makes the difference more than the Skins’ D can absorb. So I’m taking the Seahawks to fail to choke, which is to say I like Seattle to win and cover. And that, of course, means the Redskins will come out on top.

New England (+3) at Denver
OK, you know what? Let’s dispense with all the stuff about all the Patriots starters who were out injured when these teams last met back on October 16. It’s an entirely valid consideration, of course, but I don’t need to get into it, because the point has been made and made and made again. Likewise the bit about how much better New England’s run defense played in the latter half of the season than it had in the early going. That’s relevant, too, but the facts have been pointed out everywhere you care to look, and I really see no need to get into the details of it here. And the fact of the matter is that while New England has been doing a terrific job of stopping the run of late, Denver’s run offense is always tough to stop, no matter how good your D is, and the Patriots are going to have to find a way to deal with that. The Pats are also gonna have to find a way to move the ball on the ground, but I don’t think that’s such a big deal. Denver’s run defense hasn’t given up much by way of yards per game (85 on average over the course of the season), but it has allowed four yards per carry and that’s all any team that doesn’t have to pass, pass, pass to catch up should need. What I want to look at is pass offense and defense, because I believe that’s where this game will be won and lost. And that’s good news for the Patriots. Earlier this week, I got to thinking about the widely referenced weakness of the Pats’ secondary. And, you know, even though the secondary has got better as the new mostly patchwork unit of replacement DBs (filling in for injured stars) has spent more time on the field together and learned Bill Belichick’s system, there are still some significant question marks there. But the fact of the matter is that the Broncos secondary, except for Champ Bailey, its one star (and a pretty major star at that), is a very young unit that has been prone to giving up big plays. So I decided to take a close look at the stats. This is what came up: Denver allowed 227. 7 yards per game through the air during the regular season. The Pats allowed 231.4. That’s a difference of less than four yards per game. (It’s also worth noting that last week, the Pats allowed only 205 yards of passing offense to the Jacksonville Jaguars, this despite the fact that the Jags abandoned the run almost entirely early in the third quarter.) The Pats offense, meanwhile, logged an average of 257.5 yards per game in the air during the regular season. (They had 189 passing yards vs. Jacksonville despite the fact that Tom Brady threw exactly twice, for a total of 15 yards, in the fourth quarter.) Denver’s offense meanwhile managed only 201.7 yards per game in the air. That’s a difference of nearly 56 yards per game. Moreover, while the Pats allowed five more passing touchdowns during the season (25 to the Broncos’ 20), they also scored 10 more touchdowns in the air (28 to the Broncos’ 18). And while it’s certainly the case that part of what’s behind those offensive passing stats is the fact that the Broncos ran the ball much more effectively than the Pats, the numbers pretty clearly illustrate that if this game turns into a shootout, the advantage belongs to the Pats. And I expect the Patriots to make it a shootout in part by bringing the same kind of defensive pressure that held a Jaguars team that averaged 122 yards a game on the ground in the regular season to just 87 last week in Foxborough, and in part by coming out throwing, putting up some points and making Denver abandon the run in order to play catch-up. If the Pats can keep Denver throwing, and can make Jake Plummer feel like he’s got to win the game, they should be able to put this thing away. I expect to see the Pats go up by 10 sometime late in the second quarter and to never look back.

Pittsburgh (+9.5) at Indianapolis
OK, folks, here’s the thing. The Steelers aren’t winning this game. They’re not. Yeah, it’s true, the Colts are choke artists who will falter next week whether they get Denver or New England. And it’s also true that the Steelers are a bruising, physical team that has the ability to beat any team in the league if its able to play its game, to knock opposing offenses around and to grind out the clock with its running game, throwing the ball only when it’s completely necessary. But the Steelers simply aren’t gonna be able to do that here. The Colts are going to do to Pittsburgh exactly what the Cincinnati Bengals set out to do last week (and would have done had Carson Palmer not been knocked out of the game on the Bengals’ second offensive play): they’re going to come out throwing, put the Steelers on their heels, build a lead and create a situation in which Ben Roethlisberger has to throw 25 or 30 passes in an attempt to get his team back into the game. That’s a recipe for disaster for Pittsburgh. The only way the Steelers pull off the upset is if the defense manages to come up with one or two huge (and I mean huge) plays early on, giving the Pittsburgh offense the chance to start grinding it out on the ground, and potentially flustering Peyton Manning, whose game suffers when you take him out of his rhythm. But I just don’t see it going that way. So I’m taking the Colts and giving the points.

Carolina (+3) at Chicago
Last week I wondered whether the good Panthers, the ones who look like champions on every play, or the sloppy Panthers, the ones who find ways to blow games, would show up to play the Giants in New Jersey. We all know how that went. (I also wondered whether the good or bad Giants would show up, and we know how that went, too.) This week, I’m not sure it matters. Yes, the Panthers have the ability to beat the Bears. Any team in the league that can put up 14 to 17 points in a game has the potential to beat the Bears, and the Panthers averaged 24 during the regular season. They didn’t quite manage their average the last time they traveled to Chicago, however. In that game, played November 20, Carolina fell three touchdowns short of their average, and 10 points short of keeping up with the Bears, losing 13-3. And I don’t think Carolina’s offense is any better, or Chicago’s defense any less dominating, than they were back then. And, sure, Chicago’s offense is still shaky, and its quarterback, Rex Grossman, has no playoff experience (and next to no regular season experience, since he’s been injured through most of two seasons). But the Bears don’t win games with their offense. They win games with their smothering D. You simply can’t move the ball against them. So if Carolina’s gonna win this game, it’s gonna have to do it on defense. The Panthers D is gonna have to give its offense short fields to work with. That’s something they can do, for certain. Carolina came out of the regular season with a +12 giveaway/takeaway ratio, tied with the Giants for the best in the conference. But the Bears weren’t prone to giving the ball up, and they posted a +6 giveaway/takeaway mark themselves, so it’s not like it’s a given that Carolina can spend the day stripping fumbles and making picks. And I don’t think they will. I think this is gonna be a quick game, played mainly on the ground and won in the trenches. And I expect Chicago to come out ahead, by a score of about 9-7. (Note: there are four ways that I can think of to get to nine points in the NFL. The only route I’d be surprised to see Chicago take there would be a touchdown with a two point conversion plus a missed Carolina PAT returned 100+ yards.)

You know, it’s not like Wild Card weekend ever makes for easy picking — there’s always at least one upset and you never can tell where it’s coming — but this year it seems to me that it’s particularly tough. And the reasons for that vary by conference.

The way I see it, there are exactly two teams in the NFC with a realistic shot at making the Super Bowl and neither of them are playing this weekend. Now, don’t get me wrong. Of course every team that makes the post-season is there for a reason and any one of them has the ability to win it all. But some teams are simply more dangerous than others. And some have easier roads to travel, are in better health, etc. So while I think, for example, that the Redskins and possibly the Bucs could beat Seattle, I don’t think either team can beat Chicago. And while it looks to me like the Giants, were they in the best of health, might have it in them to surprise either the Bears or the Seahawks, the fact is that the Giants are hurting pretty bad. And I don’t think they could beat both Chicago and Seattle in consecutive weeks even if they were healthy. So there’s my reasoning on the NFC in general.

As for this week, however, what I see in the NFC are four teams that have been rather inconsistent squaring off against each other. So, do the good Giants show up to play the bad Panthers? Or is it the other way around? Do the Redskins (and, most important, the Mark Brunell) of the past five weeks show up in Tampa Bay? Or is it the Skins who struggled through the middle part of the season and who had trouble getting started in a must-win game at Philadelphia in week 17? And who do those ‘Skins face? Is it the Bucs team that matched Washington point-for-point (plus one) back in week 10, the team that came up big against Carolina in week 14 and Atlanta in week 16? Or will it be the team that fell apart week 15 in New England and had trouble with New Orleans in its own must-win week 17 match? I don’t know the answers to any of those questions. And it makes the NFC games this weekend exceedingly hard to pick.

What makes this weekend’s AFC games tough to pick is the fact that, as I see it, all six AFC playoff teams have the stuff to get to and win the Super Bowl. Yeah, sure, I think the Colts, Broncos and Patriots have the inside track in the race to Detroit (the Colts and Broncos by virtue of being the one and two seeds, having to play fewer playoff games, and having home-field advantage, the Pats by virtue of being the most experienced and successful playoff team in the crowd), but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers went on a run, and I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if the Bengals or Jaguars did the same. (Or let’s put it this way: I think the AFC’s sixth seeded Steelers are 20 times more likely to make the Super Bowl than the NFC’s sixth seeded Redskins.) So which AFC teams come out of this weekend with a win? I’ve got some guesses, and I think they’re good guesses, but I can’t say I’m in any way certain.

Here, then, is my assessment of what might or might not happen this weekend.

Washington (+2.5) at Tampa Bay
Conventional wisdom says this game is defined by the axiom that holds that success in the NFL playoff is defined by how well you run the ball and how well you stop the run. Fair enough. Both of these teams run the ball well. The Bucs, behind rookie of the year Cadillac Williams, managed 4 yards per carry, 114 per game and 13 touchdowns during the regular season. The Skins, behind Clinton Portis, who’s banged up but still running like a demon, came out of the regular season with 4.2 yards per carry, 136 per game and 15 TDs. It would appear, however, that the Redskins’ slight advantage as a rushing offense is offset by the superiority of the Bucs’ rushing D. Tampa Bay allowed just 3.5 yards per carry, 95 yards per game and 10 touchdowns on the ground during the regular season, while Washington gave up 4.1 per carry, 105 per game and 15 TDs. That brings things pretty even there, doesn’t it? So what makes the difference here? Maybe it’s the passing game. Neither of these teams has a great quarterback. Mark Brunell has had his moments, to be sure, but his overall passer rating is an OK 85.9. Chris Simms, meanwhile, has a passer rating of just 81.4. Neither of these guys is gonna change the way the position is played. And both are up against good to very good pass D’s. The difference in yards per game is negligible; the Skins have allowed 193 to the Bucs’ 183. Both teams have allowed 15 passing touchdowns. And the Redskins have 16 picks on the season, while the Buccaneers have 17. So where’s the difference? Well, Brunell has thrown 23 touchdowns and 10 picks this season, while Simms has thrown just 10 TDs and seven picks. And Brunell has eight playoff games under his belt to Simms’ none. So I’m giving the edge to Washington and expecting to see an upset here.

Jacksonville (+7.5) at New England
Can the Jaguars beat the Patriots in Foxborough? In 19-degree (and colder as the night goes on) weather? In the playoffs? With a quarterback just back from a broken ankle, and probably not fully recovered (or perhaps a backup quarterback, who’s looked OK in the starter’s absence)? Absolutely. How? The same way the Jags beat other good teams (Seattle, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh) during the regular season: by leaning heavily on a defense that allowed the sixth fewest points per game in the league during the 2005 campaign (16.8). If the Jags can dig in and hold the Patriots to 17 or fewer, they’ll have a decent chance to advance to the next round of the playoffs. Will they be able to do that? It’s hard to imagine. The Patriots’ offense has been running in high gear all season long, and, like the rest of the team, only got better over the last five weeks of the season. And even with Corey Dillon back in good health and running like his old self again, the Pats managed to end the season ranked second in passing yards per game, with an average of 257. The Pats also scored 28 TDs through the air this season. That’s third best in the league. And while the Jaguars’ pass D has been fairly stout in terms of yards allowed (184 per game), it’s allowed 22 passing touchdowns — that’s a lot. My guess is that the Pats will be able to put up enough points get out ahead of the Jags and stay there, forcing Jacksonville to throw the ball more than a team with an injured quarterback really should, and the Pats’ healthy, dangerous pass rush will do the rest. I’m taking New England straight up, but since the Patriots only ever win games by three, I’ll take the Jags to cover.

Carolina (+2.5) at NY Giants
This, to me, is the toughest game of the week to pick. And it’s nothing to do with the statistical breakdown, because they teams come out so close to even there you can’t learn anything by comparing the stats. The Giants have the better offense, but manage only two more points per game than the Panthers. The Panthers have the better D, but allow only three points fewer per game than the Giants. Tiki Barber should have success running against the Panthers’ run D, which is good, sure, but not good enough to shut down Tiki. Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith should have success moving the ball against the Giants’ inconsistent pass D. So what makes the difference here? I’m not sure. And that’s the problem. Maybe it’s the fact that the Giants have suffered a ton of injuries, particularly at linebacker, and may find their defense strained beyond its limits. Maybe it’s the fact that Carolina has found more ways to lose big games this season (particularly down the stretch) than any playoff-quality team I’ve ever seen. I can’t know what factor is going to come to the fore, so I can’t predict the result. But since I’m just guessing here anyhow, I’m gonna go with the concrete (Giants injuries) over the ethereal (Carolina’s bad mojo) and take the Panthers in the upset.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati
So here’s the thing: I’m thinking Pittsburgh’s tougher and more seasoned and probably better and should come out ahead in this game, right? But I’m also thinking I’ve already picked two road teams (Washington and Carolina) and three of those winning (even on Wild Card weekend) seems like a remote possibility. And since I’m not, at this point, gonna go back and start looking for reasons to pick the Giants (who will probably win now that I think of it) and Buccaneers (who will also probably win, now that you put it that way), I feel like I ought to pick the Bengals here. After all, Cincinnati does have the more high-powered offense. They’re young. They want it more. And if they can come out swinging, maybe get a 10 or 14 point lead, take the Steelers out of their game, they should be able to pull off a win here. But wait. I’ve already picked two upsets and since three of those are unlikely (even on Wild Card weekend), and since I’m not … oh, see the stuff I just said about the Giants and Bucs (both of whom are almost certainly gonna win now that I think of it) … well, I can’t comfortably pick the Bucs either. So I guess the only thing to do is go back to what I think is actually likely. It’s this: the Steelers, who are playoff tested, tough as nails and the better defensive squad, are gonna come out and give the Bengals (who won’t be so easy to beat in the post-season next year) a big old black eye, and walk away with a one- or two-point victory in a low-scoring game. So there.

You know what? I have no idea what’s gonna happen this week. Too many teams with little or nothing to play for. Too many teams with a huge interest (named Reggie Bush) in losing their games (not that I believe any NFL team would ever intentionally tank a game). Too many coaches who have no reason to play to win swearing they’re gonna play to win. My advice: place no bets. Save that dough for the playoffs. They’re only a week away, and it’ll be much more fun to have the extra stake there anyhow. But for what it’s worth, here’s what I think might possibly happen this week. Unless it doesn’t.

Denver (+10) at San Diego
The Chargers, who were eliminated from playoff contention last week in a loss to Kansas City, get a chance to return the favor. By beating Denver, San Diego would create a situation in which Kansas City’s best finish is in a three-way tie with the Chargers and Steelers, and Pittsburgh comes out of that scenario with the second AFC wild card spot. Look for the Chargers to crank it up against the Broncos’ second team and end the Chiefs’ hopes by halftime. San Diego wins by two touchdowns or more.

NY Giants (-9) at Oakland
So the deal is we’re all supposed to believe that just maybe Kerry Collins will step up in order to do some damage to the Giants, who hurt his pride when they let him go two seasons ago. Right. That’s gonna happen. Kerry needs to be let go again this off season, along with that bum of a head coach Norv Turner. The Giants, meanwhile, can clinch the NFC East title with a win. That real motivation, plus Tiki Barber, make it a long evening for the Raiders. I’m taking the Giants and giving the points.

Arizona (+6.5) at Indianapolis
Yes, I’m aware that the Cardinals are downright awful and probably shouldn’t be able to beat the Colts backups (Indianapolis has announced they’ll be treating this “like a pre-season game,” which means starters out after the first quarter), but how hard do you think even the backups will be playing? I don’t buy the whole win one for Coach Dungy bit either. They’ll save that effort and that emotion for a game that means something — the one they play two weeks from now. And the Cardinals, well, as Tom Petty put it, even the losers keep a little bit of pride. I’m taking Arizona in the “upset.”

Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland
Two days ago, when I wrote my initial blurb about this game, I said that while both teams were eliminated from playoff contention, the game at least pitted two teams that were headed in the right direction. Now, with reports that the Browns will fire GM Phil Savage, I’m not so sure. Savage, who’s had only a year at the helm, is known as one of the best evaluators of talent in the league, and I’d been one of those folks who thought maybe he and Romeo Crennel could turn out to be like Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli. We’ll never know about that now. I do know, on the other hand, that Baltimore, after looking awful in the beginning part of the season, has won four of its last six and have the potential to close the season with a three-game winning streak. With Kyle Boller starting to come on, Jamal Lewis starting to round back into form and an off-season ahead of them to get healthy and improve through free agency and the draft, Baltimore clearly has the potential to be dangerous next year. Here? In this game. The Ravens, a slightly better team right now, should pull off a win by about a touchdown.

Buffalo (-1) at NY Jets
Ah, yes, the two teams that were supposed to challenge the Patriots for dominance of the AFC East this season meet with only position near the top of the 2006 draft on the line. Maybe next year, injury and ineptitude won’t bite one of these teams on the ass. This week, I’m looking for Mike Mularkey to end his run as coach of the Bills with a win over the hapless, banged up New Jersey squad. Yes, by more than a point.

Carolina (-4) at Atlanta
The big question here is can Atlanta, now eliminated from the playoffs, play spoiler, opening the door for Dallas to steal the last NFC playoff spot away from Carolina? The answer is, no. No, they can’t. The Falcons have been unable to beat good teams all season, and they’re not gonna start doing it here in week 17. I’m taking the Panthers (one last time — I won’t be picking them next week) and giving the points.

Chicago (+3.5) at Minnesota
The conventional wisdom is that the Bears have to come to play this meaningless game, because they’re starting a quarterback, Rex Grossman, who’s had so little time on the field this season. Fair enough. But what about on defense, which is where the Bears have excelled all season? Do the Bears need to prove anything there? No. And I don’t expect them to play like they do. So I kind of expect the home team to send Mike Tice, who all but announced that he was done as head coach following the loss to Baltimore last week, out with a win. Vikings by three.

Cincinnati (+7) at Kansas City
Chiefs president Carl Peterson is once again calling for the playoffs to be expanded from 12 to 14 teams. That’s not all that surprising considering the fact that Peterson’s team has a habit of just missing the post-season. The cure, of course, is not to water down the playoffs, but to find a way to win more games during the regular season. I mean, sure it’s kind of a shame that teams can go 10-6 and miss the playoffs. But it’s more of a shame that we very nearly had a team with a losing record make the playoffs in the NFC last season. Adding two teams and heading toward an NBA-style system where it’s almost a shock not to get into the playoffs would create more problems than it would solve. One of the great things about the NFL is the fact that the regular season games all matter. I think it’s best left that way, even if it does mean good teams like San Diego and Kansas City end up sitting come the first weekend in January. So what does any of this have to do with this game? Well, not a whole lot except that by the time kickoff rolls around, the Chiefs will have been eliminated from playoff contention (by virtue of San Diego’s victory over the Broncos’ second team on Saturday afternoon — see my pick on that game above) so the Chiefs will have little to play for other than to make Peterson’s point about how more teams belong in the post-season. That, the desire to finish strong and (maybe) end Dick Vermeil’s coaching career with a win, and the fact that Cincinnati won’t be playing to win (OK, Marvin Lewis says they will play to win, but he also says he’ll probably pull starters at halftime — which isn’t at all the same as playing to win) adds up to a Kansas City victory. Will it be by seven or more? I dunno. Maybe. But probably not.

Detroit (+14) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers very likely will have nothing to play for by the time this game kicks off, having clinched the AFC six seed with San Diego’s win on Saturday afternoon. So what will they do? Will they play hard to try to stay hot, or tone it down in an attempt to stay healthy. Either way, they beat the miserable Lions, it’s just a matter of by how many points. Don’t bet this game. But I’m expecting the Pittsburgh backups to be on the field by halftime, so I’m taking Detroit to cover.

Miami (+6) at New England
The Pats would be better off resting starters and possibly losing this game. A win gets you nothing but a tougher matchup in week 17 (Pittsburgh instead of Jacksonville), and exposes your guys to injury since Miami will be playing to end its season on a strong note and with a winning record. My gut says the Patriots have their backups in by the start of the second half, but I’m not sure that’ll quite get the Fins a win. I’m taking the Pats (hesitantly) straight up, but the Dolphins with the points.

New Orleans (+14) at Tampa Bay
It’s official: New Orleans will be losing home games in Louisiana next season. What a tribute to the loyal fans in that hurricane ravaged state. The good news is, if Houston manages to top San Francisco this week, the Saints very well may be losing games next season with Matt Leinart under center. Wow. Does it get any better than that? The Bucs wrap up the NFC South with an easy win over the Ain’ts here. Go ahead and give the points. Cadillac will probably outscore New Orleans by that much on his own.

Houston (-2) at San Francisco
The game no longer known as the Reggie Bowl. Sure, if the Texans can manage a loss here, they win the rights to Reggie Bush. But Houston coach Dom Capers is gonna be unemployed by the time the 2006 draft rolls around (probably by the time the first weekend of the playoffs roll around) and no doubt couldn’t begin to care about whether the Texans get Bush. It serves Dom’s hopes of landing a coordinator post of college coaching job somewhere to go out with a win. And that’s what I expect the Texans to do given San Fran’s continuing struggles and ongoing injury problems. And what’s weird is, since a Texans win probably gives the number one draft pick to New Orleans, a team that already has a big investment in a talented running back, it probably makes Matt Leinart the #1 pick (unless someone wants to trade up to get Bush, which is a distinct possibility.) Oh, yeah, the Texans will cover here.

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville
Given the way the Jags have been playing of late, I’d probably be picking Tennessee to pull off the upset here even if Jacksonville had something to play for. But they don’t. The Jags are the AFC five seed whether they win or lose. And whether Byron Leftwich gets out on the field for a bit of a workout before the post-season begins shouldn’t make much of a difference. (If there were anything on the line, Leftwich, who’s rushing back from a broken leg to try to lead his team in the playoffs — an admirable attempt — wouldn’t even be a consideration for this game.) Tennessee ends its season with a win.

Seattle (+3) at Green Bay
Can the Packers beat the Seattle backups? Sure, why not? They’ve gotta beat somebody. Unless they want a shot at Reggie Bush badly enough to tank this game. Can’t imagine it goes down that way. I’m taking the Pack and giving the points.

Washington (-7) at Philadelphia
The Redskins win and they get to play another week (and probably just that). That, and the fact that the Eagles probably couldn’t beat Houston at this point, is about all you need to know here. Yes, the Redskins are gonna cover. And then some.

St. Louis (+12.5) at Dallas
Unless Carolina manages to totally fall apart in Atlanta (and I don’t see that happening), Dallas will have been eliminated from playoff contention by the time this game kicks off on Sunday night. I still can’t see the Cowboys losing to a team as awful as the St. Louis Rams. Or beating the Rams by less than two touchdowns, for that matter.