This Football Blog

Well, I’m right up against the start of the games once again. So I’ll just say Merry Christmas, enjoy the games and, uh, here’s what I see going down in week sixteen.

Atlanta (+3) at Tampa Bay
Forget Tampa Bay’s crushing defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots last week. I don’t mean to suggest that game was some kind of freak event or anything. It wasn’t, but it was more about the champs coming on than the Bucs faltering. Thing is, the Falcons aren’t the Patriots. Or anything like them. The Falcons are pretenders. They’ve been unable to win tough games all season long, which is why they’re virtually eliminated from the playoffs already. Virtual takes another step toward actual here as Cadillac Williams puts up all the yards against Atlanta’s weak pass D that he failed to put up against the Patriots’ much improved defensive unit a week ago, and the Bucs cruise to victory by a touchdown or more.

Buffalo (+13.5) at Cincinnati
Oh, to be Kelly Holcomb. Kelly lands back under center for the Bills, in place of gimpy J.P. Losman, just in time for a visit to Cincinnati. And the Bengals will be playing hard with the knowledge that they can still grab the conference two seed and a first-round playoff bye if the Broncos falter this week or next. (The chances of the Broncos losing this week are nil, but the Bengals need to win out and hope Denver drops its season closer in San Diego to get the bye.) Fortunately for Kelly, the Bengals D is no great shakes. Cincy’s pass D is ranked 21st in the league. It gives up about 210 yards a game. So it’s unlikely Kelly will take much punishment unless his team falls way behind early and he ends up having to throw on every down. And that, unfortunately for Kelly, seems likely. Cincinnati has been scoring on the order of 28 points per game. Buffalo’s D has been giving up 22. And on the other side of the ball, although Cincy’s D gives up almost 20, Buffalo’s offense only manages about 15. Even if you don’t allow for the fact that the Bills have completely fallen apart over the past several weeks (they haven’t won a game since week 10) while the Bengals have been playing about the best football of their season, that’s a pretty significant differential (works out to about seven and a half points per game). Work in the differences in where each team is at, what’s at stake for the Bengals and where the game’s being played, and it seems to me you’ve got a Cincinnati victory by two touchdowns or more on the way.

Dallas (+5) at Carolina
The Panthers have most certainly run hot and cold this season, but they’re still out in front in the race for the NFC South crown (a race that probably won’t be over until next week), and they’ve still got a chance (albeit a slim one) of earning the NFC two seed and a first-round playoff bye. The Cowboys have run boiling and freezing this season, and they’re all but finished in terms of playoff contention (a loss here would all but end their hopes). The Boys, whom I thought had a chance at making the Super Bowl a couple of weeks back, just don’t to have what it takes to win the big ones. Their offensive line keeps letting opposing defenders into the backfield, and Drew Bledsoe, while he may be many things, is not a guy who consistently performs well under that kind of pressure. And Drew’s surely gonna feel some pressure this weekend. While the run D may have been the biggest factor in the Panthers’ defensive success this season, the pass D has help up pretty well, surrendering only about 192 yards per game (and 6.23 per carry, which is the third best average in the league). And if you can’t run effectively (which Dallas won’t be able to do against a Carolina D that gives up only 3.5 yards per carry), at some point you’ve gotta go to the air. When the Cowboys make the decision to put the game in Drew’s hands, that’s when things get ugly. I’m looking for the Panthers D to log their 22nd and 23rd picks of the season and for the team as a whole to take this one going away (yes, I mean by more than five and a half).

Detroit (+3) vs. New Orleans in the Alamodome, San Antonio
One of these teams isn’t gonna lose this week, and that, in itself, is an oddity. Which one will it be? I have absolutely no idea, so I’m going with the fake home team vs. the fake football team that’s visiting. And since not even a huge bet would make this game remotely interesting, I’m keeping my money away from it. Besides, it’s probably a push.

Jacksonville (-6) at Houston
The guys on Sirius NFL radio’s Afternoon Blitz keep talking about how Jacksonville could potentially lost both of the last two “cupcake” games on its schedule. I agree in theory. Adam Schein is certainly correct when he points out that the Jags offense has been awful and getting worse since Byron Leftwich went down with an injury a few weeks back. And losing next week to the Titans? That’s a possibility (and an awful one if you’re a Pittsburgh Steelers fan as it would probably create the three-way tie that would kick Pittsburgh out of the playoffs). But losing here to maybe the worst team in the league? Not a chance. The Jags offense should be able to put up at least a few points against the Texans 31st-ranked defense (a unit that allows an average of almost 27 points per game), and there’s no reason whatsoever to believe Houston’s 31st-ranked offense will be able to score against Jacksonville’s D, which is ranked fourth in the league. So I’m taking Jacksonville straight up and figuring it’s probably a win by more like three than six.

NY Giants (+3) at Washington
There’s an idea out there — I’ve heard it expressed a lot this week — that the Giants’ drubbing of the Redskins when the teams met in New Jersey October 30 was significantly attributable to the fact that the Giants were playing with tons of emotion, looking to win one for their well-loved owner, Wellington Mara, who’d died earlier in the week. Nonsense. The Giants beat up on the Skins that day because they were the better team. I’m sure the victory meant more to them than it would have under normal circumstances. And maybe they even put up an extra touchdown or even 10 points because they were playing for the late Mr. Mara. But you don’t beat a team 36-0 on the strength of emotion. You beat a team 36-0 because they don’t belong on the same field as you. That’s as true of the Redskins now as it was then. The Skins, who are 8-6 and exactly one loss away from being officially eliminated from playoff contention, simply aren’t for real this season (and they likely won’t be for real until Mark Brunell’s stint under center comes to an end). Do I think the Giants can pull off another blowout? Probably not. This game is being played on the Redskins’ field, after all. And the Skins D isn’t likely to give up another 36 points to New York even if their offense can’t get anything accomplished. I do think the Giants can win by more than three, though. In fact, I’m rather certain that’s just what they’ll do.

Pittsburgh (-7) at Cleveland
So evidently Ben Roethlisberger’s bum thumb really isn’t gonna slow the Steelers down. At least not in the regular season. Whether it’ll be a factor in the post-season, on the other hand, is another matter. Well, assuming Pittsburgh even has a post-season. Although the Steelers currently hold the tie-breaking advantage over the Chargers and would have the AFC six seed if the playoffs started today, they do not control their own destiny (as the saying goes). A loss over the last two weeks by Jacksonville (a team that has not been playing well since losing its starting quarterback a few weeks ago) coupled with wins both weeks by the Steelers and Chargers would create a three-way tie that would eliminate Pittsburgh from the playoffs. Weird, but true. What does any of that mean to this game? Well, nothing, really. The Steelers still have to win to stay in the hunt (they’re not eliminated if they lose, but it wouldn’t help their cause) and the Browns will still be playing with all their age-old hatred of the Steelers in mind. And given that the Browns are at home and have been playing hard these last few weeks, I’m thinking Cleveland keeps Pittsburgh’s margin of victory here to more like three or four.

San Diego (even) at Kansas City
Here’s the game of the week, kids. Division rivals going head-to-head in a late-season matchup, both teams knowing that the winner retains a shot at making the playoffs while the loser absolutely goes home. This is what this December in the National Football League is all about. And it’s easily the hardest game of the week to pick. The Chargers are a slightly better team than the Chiefs (breaking it down to the most basic numbers, total offense vs. total defense: the Chargers average 364 yards and 29 points per game on offense, and allow 312 yards and 19 points on defense; the Chiefs average 380 yards and 25 points per game on offense, and allow 347 yards and 23 points per game on D), but the Chiefs are at home, and Arrowhead is a notoriously difficult stadium for visitors to play in, especially late in the season (Kansas City pretty much never loses at home in December). The Chargers also are playing their second-consecutive road game, and their second big road game at that, having become the only team this season to beat the Indianapolis Colts in a very hard-fought battle a week ago. Did that game in Indy rev the Chargers up, or wear them down? Your guess is as good as mine. Still, what sticks out for me in this matchup is Kansas City’s poor defensive stats. The Chiefs D is ranked 28th overall and while that breaks down to ninth against the run and 31st against the pass, Kansas City still allows 4.5 yards per carry. Compare that to the San Diego run D’s 3.4 yards per carry, which ties the Chargers with the Steelers and Buccaneers for best in the league, and you’ve gotta come out thinking LaDainian Tomlinson has a better chance of putting up big yards here than Larry Johnson does. That spells victory for the Chargers, though I expect the decision to come late in a very high-scoring game.

San Francisco (+9.5) at St. Louis
No, I really just don’t have anything at all to say about this game. I guess this is the price you pay for games like San Diego-Kansas City. I mean, the bad teams have to play out their schedules, too. Right? San Fran loses by some margin that may or may not be more than the nine and a half they’re getting (probably it will be by more like two touchdowns) and marches on toward next week’s showdown with Houston for the rights to Reggie Bush.

Tennessee (+5.5) at Miami
The Dolphins are gonna make things a good bit tougher on the Patriots in 2006 than they have been for some time now. Just a season into his NFL head coaching career, Nick Saban has already brought about a significant improvement in his team. Miami has won four straight going into this game and, depending on whether Saban’s friend Bill Belichick decides to rest a bunch of Patriots starters next week (he probably should), could very well end this season on a six-game winning streak. And my guess is the Fins are a 10-6 or 11-5 team next year. The Titans, on the other hand, continue to struggle and are headed into an outright rebuilding period. This could very well be one of Steve McNair’s final games as a Titan. Of course, most of this stuff has nothing to do with this game, but there’s just not a lot to say about this game other than to point out that the Dolphins are gonna win it by seven or more.

Philadelphia (+1) at Arizona
Mike McMahon. Josh McCown. A battle for the ages between two of the greatest quarterbacks in the game. A struggle for dominance between two proud franchises. Or a trainwreck of a matchup between an Eagles team that’s foundering after years at the top and a Cardinals team that continues to find new ways to sink to the bottom of the standings year in and year out. I’m taking Arizona, but only because they’re at home and I have to pick one team or the other. Yeah, I’ll give the point. I mean, whatever.

Indianapolis (+9) at Seattle
There’s nothing I can say about Tony Dungy’s son’s death this week that hasn’t already been said, and better, so I’ll stay out of it. Has nothing to do with this game, anyhow, because the game was a foregone conclusion from the moment Indy took its first loss of the season at home against San Diego a week ago. The Colts, with nothing left to play for (they own home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs and they can’t get that perfect season) have promised to get every active player on the roster into this game (i.e. their starters won’t be on the field for more than a half, and probably more like a quarter). Indy’s left some key guys who were dinged up in that San Diego game (Marvin Harrison, Cato June, Ryan Diem) home to rest for the playoffs. And the Seahawks need a win to clinch home-field in the NFC playoffs. That’s a Seattle win. And, yeah, probably by more than nine.

Oakland (+13) at Denver
How does a team that can’t win with 1,000-yard rusher LaMont Jordan on the field win with him standing on the sidelines, his foot in a cast? They don’t. It’s that simple. The Raiders suck. They need to make major changes in the off-season, including scuttling their coach and quarterback. And they’re headed for a big loss to a Broncos team that’s for the conference two seed and a first-round playoff bye. A big loss. Yes, by more than 13.

Chicago (-6.5) at Green Bay
Although most of the football being played this week is happening on Saturday, the big action in the NFC North doesn’t even start until Sunday afternoon. The Bears go into this game needing a win to clinch the division title (they can also get one with a Vikings loss to the Ravens in the night game). If by some odd chance both the Giants and the Panthers have lost on Saturday (not gonna happen), the Bears also will enter this one with the chance to clinch the conference two seed and a first-round playoff bye. No matter what’s at stake, however, the Bears are simply a far better team than the Packers and should take this one with ease. It will be interesting to see how Rex Grossman fares against a team that’s had time to study some film and prepare for him, and that alone should make the game worth watching (though I don’t expect Rex will get anything like a real test until the Bears travel to Minnesota next week, and probably not until the playoffs). I’m taking the Bears, of course. And given the way the Packers have been playing of late, I’m giving the points.

Minnesota (-3) at Baltimore
Well, Jamal Lewis looks like he’s finally beginning to round back into form. It’s much too little, much too late, of course. But it’s nice for Jamal. It’s helped the Ravens look much better in recent weeks than they had through most of the season. And it at least sets up an outside chance that Baltimore won’t be quite so awful next season. The Vikings, on the other hand, are headed toward ending their season the way they began it, with a horrible thud. With any luck, that helps bring an end to Mike Tice’s stint as head coach and puts the team into a position to maybe turn things around in the next couple of years. For now, all this stuff means is that the Ravens win their second straight game, and their second against an NFC North team in six days. The margin of victory should be something like six.

New England (-5.5) at NY Jets
Consider this: Herm Edwards has said he wants to get Vinny Testaverde back on the field some time over the next couple of weeks, so Vinny can finish his career “the right way.” Monday Night Football would make a great venue for a last tip o’ the helmet from Testaverde. It seems highly likely that Doug Flutie, too, will see the field at some point during this game. The Pats have nothing left to play for (they own the AFC four seed and they’re not gonna do any better than that), and Tom Brady could probably stand to rest his banged up leg before the playoffs get underway. (Plus the Pats backups can probably top the hapless Jets.) Add to these things the fact that Dandy Don Meredith will be spending some time in the MNF broadcast booth, a little bit of nostalgia as ABC bids farewell to professional football. So what if Rip Van Winkle happens to wake up round about 11 p.m. Monday and turns on the TV to see what’s new? Pats win this by a touchdown, regardless of when the offensive starters come out.

What a great day of football Saturday was. Well, Saturday afternoon, anyhow. And half of Saturday night — the half before the Bills did their usual crumble. (If ya wanna know what I had to say in advance of those games, you’ve gotta scroll down to Week Fifteen, Part One from yesterday.) Should be some great games ahead today, too. This is why I love December. This is what I see happening today (oh, yeah, and in tomorrow night’s yawn-fest):

Arizona (-1) at Houston
Maybe what you do if you’re the new coach of the Houston Texans come draft time is trade down. I mean, say you’re content with David Carr under center. And say you figure Domanick Davis is a dandy running back. Well, then what you need to do is address your horrific problems on the offensive line, right? I mean, clearly a huge factor in the Texans’ miserable failure of a 2005 season has been the complete inability of anyone on the line to block. So if that’s what you’re thinking, and you’ve got the first overall pick in the draft, my guess is that there are gonna be plenty of teams that want Reggie Bush or Matt Leinart enough to give away lots of picks in order to move up. So you trade down, pick up as many solid O linemen as you can (or as many as you need after you’ve had a go at a few in free agency) and take it from there. Now, me, I’d take Reggie Bush at number one and figure I can find line help in later rounds and in the free agent market. I’d think, well, if guys like LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander can make such huge differences for their teams, I want a guy like that. And I’m not entirely sure Davis is one of those guys (I think he’s a fine running back, who’d do really well on a lot of teams, but I’m not sure he’s an L.T. type). But, ah, that’s all a matter for another day. Another year, really. For now, I see a big week on tap for Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin as the Cards cruise to victory by a touchdown or better.

Carolina (-9) vs. New Orleans at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge
It’s not like I’m a huge Aaron Brooks fan or anything — the guy’s a stat machine, sure, but he just doesn’t seem to have that added whatever it is (leadership, toughness, competitive edge, eye of the fucking tiger bullshit) that you’ve gotta have to succeed as a quarterback in the NFL — but it seems to me that switching to Todd Bouman at quarterback is unlikely to make the Saints a better team. Of course, I’m not sure what would make the Saints a better team at this point, short of sweeping changes in personnel, coaching, management and ownership. And most of that stuff isn’t about to happen. So of course I like the Panthers to get back on track here and retake the lead in the NFC south. Giving nine on the road? I’m not so sure. But I guess, given that neither team’s truly at home and we are talking about the Saints, if I had to make a bet, I’d go ahead and give the points.

Dallas (+3) at Washington
The Redskins have to win out to have any shot at making the post-season. That means beating the Cowboys here, the Giants in Washington next week and the Eagles in Philadelphia in week 17. So that’s not gonna happen. And, inc fact, it’s gonna not happen starting right here. The Skins are in collapse. The ‘Boys are on the ascent. The proof is in the playing, and the Cowboys take this one by four.

NY Jets (+9) at Miami
So it looks for all the world like the AFC East is gonna be a bit more interesting next season. Nick Saban, in his first year as head coach, has already begun to turn the Dolphins around. He’s a quarterback and a few defensive tweaks away from having a dangerous team, and there’s no reason to expect he won’t fit those pieces into the puzzle in the off-season. Right now, though, the Dolphins are one loss, or one Patriots win, away from playoff elimination. And my guess is the Pats win will have come before the Fins get a chance to keep their minor hopes alive by taking one from the hapless Jets. Of course, the Dolphins still should beat the Jets, though I don’t’ see them winning by more than a touchdown.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Minnesota
Fred Smoot has gotta be a complete dipshit. Insists he had nothing to do with the whole so-called Love Boat scandal, then it turns out the boats were reserved with his credit card. (Someone in the locker room swipe your wallet there, Fred?) Then, when he’s one of four guys — along with Daunte Culpepper, Moe Williams and Bryant McKinnie — who get hit with criminal charges as a result of the whole mess (indecent conduct, disorderly conduct, and lewd or lascivious conduct) his biggest concern is finding out which of his teammates sold him down the river. Way to start repairing your image, there, Freddy. But that’s the theme of this Vikings team, I guess. It’s just top-to-bottom dipshits from the coach on down. And, you know, this ought to be the week that the dipshit squad’s run of good luck hits an end. The Steelers certainly aren’t gonna give away a victory like the Giants, the only good team the Vikings have beaten in their recent charge back to playoff contention. The Vikes are gonna have to earn this one. And given the way Pittsburgh played a week ago, it appears earning a win isn’t gonna be easy for Minnesota. Still, I like the Vikings chances to get it done here. I think Brad Johnson will find a way to move the ball against the Steelers D, taking advantage of the Pittsburgh secondary’s at times over-aggressive pursuit of the ball. And I think the Vikings D, which seems to be improving on a weekly basis, will find a way to get to Ben Roethlisberger (shhh, Bill Cowher doesn’t want anyone talking about his bad thumb) and force him to make some ill-advised throws for a guy with his (shhh) injury. So I’m taking Minnesota to pull off the upset.

San Diego (+7.5) at Indianapolis
So here’s the deal, Tony: 1) The Patriots have made it clear they’re for real. And chances are, they’re gonna be headed your way in four weeks. 2) You go all out in pursuit of a record and you are tempting fate in a majorly way. You’ve got bigger fish to fry and you know it. 3) You know damned well that the Chargers gonna be bringing everything they’ve got on both sides of the ball, especially given the window that was opened for them in New York on Saturday. So what are you gonna do? You gonna keep your starters in the game from end to end when they’ve got nothing real to play for (I’m sorry, but 16-0 ain’t real enough)? Or are you gonna play it smart and start getting ready for a team you’ve never been able to get past in the playoffs? My guess, Tony, is that, being the smart coach you are, you’re gonna give your fellas a half to stay in shape, telling them not to do anything stupid, then turn it over to the backups. And my gut says the Chargers stay with you through the half, then surge ahead to wrap it up. I say the Colts go to 13-1 this week. And we can all finally stop talking about what if.

Seattle (-7) at Tennessee
The Seahawks can wrap up home field throughout the playoffs with a win here and a Chicago loss to Atlanta on Sunday night. They wrap up a bye week in the playoffs just by winning this game. I think they’re gonna have to settle for the latter (see my pick on Atlanta/Chicago below), which I’m sure they’ll take happily. The Titans, meanwhile, press forward toward a very nice pick in the 2006 draft. If they use it well, they could make their way back into playoff contention by 2008. I’m taking the ‘Hawks and giving the touchdown.

San Francisco (+15.5) at Jacksonville
Jacksonville, with its amazingly soft schedule going forward (the Jags travel to Houston next week, then wrap up at home against the Titans), would appear to be headed for the AFC five seed. The prize? A first round trip to lovely Foxborough, Massachusetts to take on the newly resurgent defending champion New England Patriots. That’s a fine how do you do, isn’t it, Jack? So do I think the Jaguars cover the college spread here? Uh, sure. Why not? But I wouldn’t put money on any NFL team giving those kind of points. Not ever.

Cincinnati (-8) at Detroit
Apparently a bunch of Lions fans who want Matt Millen fired are gonna wear Bengals colors to this game. I understand the sentiment entirely, but, folks, do you really wanna take it that far? Those Bengals colors ain’t pretty. Not one bit. Of course, neither will this game be. I’m taking Cincinnati and expecting them to win by at least ten.

Cleveland (+3) at Oakland
Looks like Romeo Crennel has himself a quarterback of the future in Charlie Frye. Charlie’s played well against tough opponents in his first two NFL starts. Nice going, Romeo. I expect you guys will prosper together. The Raiders, meanwhile, are taking the back to the future approach at the most important position in the game, putting Kerry Collins back in at quarterback a week after pledging to go with Marques Tuiasosopo through the rest of the season. Norv Turner apparently figures Kerry gives him the best chance of winning games now. And Norv’s gonna need to have as many wins as possible on his record when he’s out looking for a new job in the off-season. I think Norv and Kerry get a win in one of their last games together here, though not an easy win. I think it’s a push against the spread. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Charlie and the Cleveland gang manage to pull off the upset.

Philadelphia (+3.5) at St. Louis
Hey, Eagles, turns out you guys really kinda hurt Terrell Owens’ feelings last season. Maybe that’s why he’s been acting out so much. Ever think of that, ya big bullies? Also, some attention-starved NAACP guy wants everyone to know he doesn’t think Donovan McNabb’s a very good black guy or a very good quarterback. So there. Is it just that no one in Philadelphia can bear to think about football anymore? Is that it? This is one of the only times this season I’ve gone this route, but I’m taking the Rams and giving the points. I just don’t see what other choice I have.

Atlanta (-3.5) at Chicago
So the obvious key matchup here is Atlanta’s extremely productive offense (the best rushing offense in the league) against Chicago’s stingy, league-leading D, a defense that’s given up an average of 3.5 yards per carry and just six touchdowns on the ground this season. But you know what I think? I think the matchup to watch is the Chicago offense, which has been anything but productive (averaging just 16 points a game, which is eight fewer than Atlanta), against Atlanta’s so-so, 18th-ranked D. The Bears run the ball fairly well (4.3 yards per carry, while Atlanta does an exceedingly poor job of stopping the run (giving up 4.6 yards per rush). And while Chicago hasn’t given Kyle Orton a chance to throw deep all that much, I think they might given Atlanta’s hot-and-cold secondary. If the Bears do test the secondary, and the defense is able to do its usual thing, keeping the Falcons out of the end zone and picking off balls at key moments, I think it could be a long night for Atlanta. And that’s just what I see happening. Chicago by six.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Baltimore
Another Monday night gem. Thanks, ABC. Thanks so very much. I’ll take the Packers straight up and the Ravens to cover. And that’s exactly all I have to say about this mess.

OK, so here’s the deal: Not that you care, but I’ve got holiday baking to do, and I’ve gotta make and freeze my ravioli for Christmas dinner (made my gravy last weekend and, man, I’ve gotta tell you it came out amazing). Plus, I’m planning to catch these games while I work. So I’m clearly not gonna get to all of this week’s games before sometime later this afternoon. Figured I’d go on the record now about today’s batch and finish the rest when I can break away from the oven for a bit. Brutal damned week overall. Today, not so bad. Here’s what I see happening this afternoon and tonight.

Tampa Bay (+4.5) at New England
Earlier in the season, I noted (repeatedly) here and elsewhere my opinion that the Patriots were set to peak as a team in December and January. Three weeks ago, in correctly predicting the Pats’ loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, I said that loss would be their last of the regular season. Here’s the game that puts both of those predictions, and the Pats, to the test. New England should win this game. The Pats defense has been coming on of late. Corey Dillon is back in form and is running the ball as well and as dangerously as he ever has, creating situations in which Tom Brady’s terrific play boosts the Pats to bigger leads/margins of victory rather than simply getting the team by. And while the Bucs D has been formidable this season (and no less so than ever in last week’s surprise victory at Carolina), I don’t see it being quite enough to stop the Patriots offense in Foxboro. I also think the Patriots pass rush, led by the newly healthy Richard Seymour, will be able to get after Chris Simms (who still sucks) and force him to make some costly mistakes. Look for New England to finally log a few picks and to win this one by about a field goal. And then look for the guy at the desk next to yours to hop quick as lightning back on the Patriots bandwagon and act like he never got off.

Kansas City (+3) at NY Giants
Yeah, I’ve predicted a couple of times this season that it was all over for the Chiefs. And they did find a way to lose last week at Dallas. But it’s hard to imagine Kansas City not winning this game. The Giants are going to be without middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, who has become a leader off their D and who is one of their most important weapons against the run, which makes it impossible to believe they’re gonna be able to control Chiefs running back Larry Johnson. The Giants also may have to play without outstanding offensive linemen Kareem McKenzie and Luke Petitgout. If those tackles can’t go, and if their backups are unable to step in and be effective, Eli Manning could potentially have company in the backfield all afternoon. That won’t help a team trying to keep up with Kansas City’s productive offense. Still, I’m taking the Giants here. Why? It’s partly gut. It’s partly a continuing belief that Kansas City just isn’t that good. And it’s partly to do with the fact that Dallas has no offensive line at all, gave up obscene numbers to Johnson (143 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries, plus three catches for 28 yards) and the Chiefs’ offense a week ago and still came out on top. So there’s that. Like the Cowboys did last wee, the Giants beat the Chiefs with a late score. New York wins by a field goal.

Denver (-9) at Buffalo
The Bills are officially done for the season. And one has to imagine Buffalo is also all but officially done with Mike Mularkey and Tom Donahoe. I heard Gil Brandt saying on Sirius NFL Radio a few weeks back that his friend Marv Levy wants to get back into the league. Maybe the Bills will be smart enough in the off-season to make that happen. Who knows? For this week, the Bills are nothing more than the next step on Denver’s path to a playoff bye week and, ultimately (yeeeesh) the Super Bowl. And, ah, sure, I’ll give the points. Why not?

You know, as it turns out, I’m not sure I have a whole lot to say about this week’s games. Seems to me those big spreads are there for pretty good reasons (well, most of them, anyhow). And when you see college spreads on professional games this late in the season, it’s kinda hard to say, well, this team’s O is just starting to come on or that team’s D is finally beginning to click. Yeah, there are some teams that are better now than they were a month ago, but the oddsmakers have figured it all out. And while there’s never really any accurate way to say how any team is gonna do in relation to a 16-point spread, it’s pretty clear that most of these games are gonna be won by the favorites. Except for one or two. I think I know what one of the upsets will be. The other is anyone’s guess. Here’s what I see:

Chicago (+5.5) at Pittsburgh
Here’s your upset. Right out of the box. Look, I’m sorry but I don’t give half a damn about the fact that Chicago doesn’t score a lot of points. It hasn’t mattered much so far this season. And I’m not exactly expecting a big scoring day for Pittsburgh. Setting aside the fact that the Bears’ D just doesn’t give up points (10.6 per game, kids), consider the fact that the Steelers are being quarterbacked by a guy who’s probably gonna need surgery in the off-season to fix a severe thumb injury on his throwing hand. So the guy who threw three picks playing with his thumb in a splint last week is now gonna try to get it done against a defense that’s tops in the league, that has 18 interceptions on the season and that has allowed only four rushing touchdowns all season? And he’s gonna lead his team to victory by a margin of greater than five and a half points? Not on this planet, my friends. Not on this planet. The Bears win this one 10-3.

Cleveland (+11.5) at Cincinnati
So maybe Cincinnati’s not gonna collapse this season after all. Or at least not until they get to the playoffs. Good for them. I hope they get to the Super Bowl (if only because I’d rather they went than Indianapolis or Denver). I also hope Romeo Crennel’s squad makes it tough for the Bengals to put the division away. So I’ll take the Bengals to win and cover and hope it’s closer than that.

Houston (+6.5) at Tennessee
So if you’re Houston’s next coach do you give David Carr another shot at making it work and take Reggie Bush with the number one pick in the draft? Or do you just go ahead and figure Carr’s a lost cause and take Matt Leinart. And that, folks, sums up about the only remotely interesting thing one can possibly say about either of these teams. Sad but true. As for the game, look for the relatively less awful Titans to win and cover.

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville
You’re right, Jacksonville does have a history of playing Indy tough. And, yes, Jacksonville is definitely fighting for a wild card slot (which they’re probably gonna get no matter what happens here). And, yes, that’s true, too. The Jags are playing at home. So, sure, I can see why it’s tempting to pick an upset here. I hope it goes that way. But it isn’t going to. Indianapolis clinches home field advantage through the playoffs with a win here, and that’s all the motivation the Colts should need. Indy will lose one or two of their final three games, but that’s a story for another day. (Note to Tony Dungy: If you clinch home field and you decide to play for a record instead of for a championship, you are courting a disaster of incredible proportion.) Today, it’s all about getting a step closer to what the Colts have been working for all season. Jacksonville fights hard and stays in the game, but Indianapolis wins this one by a touchdown.

New England (-4) at Buffalo
Are the Bills unraveling? Does Eric Moulds’ one-game suspension point to fatal discord within the Buffalo organization? I don’t know, and I mostly don’t care. (I’ll be interested, though, to see whether Mike Mularkey and Tom Donahoe still have jobs come February.) Are the Pats kicking into gear just in time to make a big run into the post-season? I hope so, but I don’t know. What I do know is what I told you two weeks ago: the Patriots are going to win their last five games of the season. This is one of those. And they’ll win the game by three.

Oakland (-3) at NY Jets
Two things I’m excited about regarding this game. First, LaMont Jordan gets his chance to show his old team what he’s capable of. (It’s not that I think Jordan should have started for the Jets in front of Curtis Martin. Curtis has been one of the best running backs in the game for a good long while. You can’t take anything away from him. It’s just, well, you know, Jordan’s a damned fine rusher in his own right who never got a chance in New York, much to Oakland’s ongoing benefit.) Second, Marques Tuiasosopo finally gets a real chance to start under center. I’ve been waiting to see that for a long time. And I’m counting on him to light it up against my least favorite team in the league. I think he will. I’m taking Oakland and expecting them to win by two touchdowns.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Minnesota
Why, oh, why do I have to endure so-called professional sports broadcasters (by which I mean members of what Howard Cosell called the jockocracy) going on about how Mike fucking Tice “has to be” considered a coach of the year candidate if the Vikings are able to salvage their season? Tice? Tice? What is Tice, guys, your fucking hook? You’ve gotta say nice things about him or he doesn’t set you up with whatever it is he’s got a line on? Or is it just that he didn’t sell everyone he’d ever met down the river when he got tagged for scalping Super Bowl tickets, something every damned one of you has probably done at some point? It’s gotta be something like that. Because the truth of the matter is that Mike Tice is the main reason the Vikings ended up in a 2-5 hole to begin with. Outside of Matt Millen, Tice is the most incompetent individual in the NFL. Coach of the year, indeed. As noted here previously, the Vikings, thanks to Brad Johnson’s solid decision making on the field, should win just enough games to buy Tice, the non-leader (read: “players coach”) another season on the sidelines. And mark my words, whatever the Vikes finish at this season, (9-7? 10-6?), they’ll finish the 2006 season with two fewer wins. And it’ll keep going that way until Zygi Wilf recognizes he’s got a loser at the helm and makes a change. For now, look for the winning streak to go to 6 as the Rams lose this game by 10 or so.

Tampa Bay (+5) at Carolina
This game is, for all intents and purposes, the match to decide the NFC South, Atlanta having proven itself to be a non-factor. Could be a great game, too. You’ve got two of the league’s best defensive squads facing two of its most consistently inconsistent offenses. The Panthers pass better. The Bucs run better. The Panthers stop the run better. The Bucs stop the pass better. Both Ds allow just better than 16 points a game. But the Panthers do outscore the Bucs by just a little more five points per game (24.2 on average as compared to 18.8). And, of course, the Panthers are at home. And there, I think, is the difference. I like Carolina to outlast Tampa Bay by a field goal.

NY Giants (-9) at Philadelphia
So I guess all those questions about whether Philly’s era of dominance in the NFC East have been answered, eh? Getting nine points at home. Man, that’s gotta smart. And even though the Giants don’t play their best football on the road, it seems like with the way the Eagles have been playing of late all you can really do is take New York and give the points.

San Francisco (+16) at Seattle
Seattle, another team that apparently isn’t going to collapse in the regular season this year (curiouser and curiouser) moves a step closer to securing home field through the playoffs (and with the only tough game left on their schedule a week 16 showdown with the Colts, who’ll be resting starters if Tony Dungy has half a brain, you’ve gotta expect Seattle will manage to get home field, though it’ll be in question right up until week 17). San Francisco, meanwhile, keeps itself in serious contention for the rights to Reggie Bush. Do you give the points? I don’t know. Sixteen is an awful lot in an NFL game. Toss a coin. Mine came down no.

Washington (-4) at Arizona
I don’t wanna talk about this game. Can I not talk about this game? I don’t think the Redskins are worth a damn at this point in the season, but the fact of the matter is that neither are the Cardinals. And while both teams play pretty consistently average to below average on offense, the Skins have had a fairly less poor D. So, OK, I’ll take Washington straight up, but I don’t see them beating anyone by more than four on the road.

Baltimore (+14.5) at Denver
The Broncos take an easy step toward a bye week and a home game in January. Denver averages about 13 points a game more than Baltimore, but, you know, I’ve gotta think they can pad that average by three or so here.

Kansas City (+3) at Dallas
So I guess I was wrong about Kansas City losing its last five games, huh? Maybe its last four? Or maybe the Chiefs are better than I gave them credit for being. Looks like I’ve also been wrong in my contention that the Cowboys were the team to beat in the NFC East, and possibly a Super Bowl contender. Oh, well, I can live with Dallas being worse than I’d expected. I’m not so sure I’m comfortable with the idea of Kansas City being better than I expected, though. And that’s OK, because I’m still not sure they’re all that much better. Scoring averages put this one about even. Kansas City scores four more points per game, and allows four more points per game. But this one’s in Dallas. And unlike the Giants, who made the Cowboys look foolish last week, the Chiefs don’t have a great pass rush. And that, I think, makes the difference. Look for Drew Bledsoe to have a much better day this week, while the Cowboys find a way to slow down Larry Johnson (not stop him, mind you, just slow him down a bit). Take Dallas straight up and expect a push against the spread.

Miami (+13) at San Diego
The Chargers are coming on strong as the playoffs approach, disproving my theory early on that they’d fall apart as the season wore on and their blocking schemes broke down. (Oh, well, maybe next year.) San Diego has what could be a brutal schedule ahead. They travel to Indianapolis next week (though the Colts, having clinched home field through the playoffs this week, will be resting starters if Tony Dungy has half a brain), then to Kansas City (for a showdown that could decide who gets the AFC six seed) and then go home to host the Broncos, who could still be fighting for a playoff bye. So the Chargers know they’ve gotta win this one, and I expect them to run all over a Dolphins team that is, after all, still rebuilding. Big spreads still make me nervous, but I’ll go ahead and give the damned points.

Detroit (+6) at Green Bay
Another gem of a Sunday night matchup. Man, these TV guys sure know how to put together the great prime time entertainment, don’t’ they? I think I’ve got holiday baking to do or something. Shit, which team will lose this game? Hmmm. Take the Pack. Give the points. And plan to turn in early, because it’s just never gonna turn into a good game.

New Orleans (+10.5) at Atlanta
Another gem of a Monday night matchup. Man, these TV guys sure know how to put together the great prime time entertainment, don’t’ they? Atlanta keeps its playoff fantasies alive for another week (or two) by temporarily pulling even with Tampa Bay. I don’t know about the points. Give ’em if you want. It’s all the same to me.

Not an easy week to pick. Not by any stretch. You’ve got division matchups. You’ve got quarterbacks with bad thumbs starting, quarterbacks with bad knees maybe starting, quarterbacks with bad quarterbacking ability starting all over the place, rookies and backups stepping in. It’s entirely possible every single game will go exactly as I don’t expect. Dunno. Here’s what I expect to happen, or possibly not:

Atlanta (+3) at Carolina
Yes, I’m aware of how Atlanta has had Carolina’s number for the past few years. And I’m aware of how poorly the Carolina offense has played over the last two weeks in Chicago and Buffalo. But I’m also aware of the fact that the Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league, a unit that’s particularly strong against the run (giving up only 82.4 yards a game and 3.4 per carry). And given that Atlanta’s offense relies heavily on the ground game (the Falcons have the best rushing offense in the league, whereas their passing game is ranked 28th in yards per game and 23rd in yards per attempt), one has to expect they’ll struggle to make things happen against that Carolina D. Something else I’m aware of is the fact that the Falcons have a habit of coughing the ball up. They’ve given away 11 fumbles this season whereas the Panthers have taken 13 fumbles away from opponents. Most important, however, is that I’m acutely aware of the fact that the Falcons have been unable to beat good teams all season long. And since the Panthers, while maybe not as good as they appeared to be a few weeks back, are unquestionably a good team, I have to like their chances. I’m taking Carolina and expecting them to win it by about a touchdown.

Buffalo (+5) at Miami
I love that this game is being sold as a battle of teams that maybe could salvage their seasons and make a bid for the playoffs. After all, the argument says, with the Patriots playing relatively poorly and lots of divisional games still to be played, it’s conceivable that either of these 4-7 squads could steal the division if they win out. What? Come on, now. Let’s be serious. Putting all else aside (like the fact that the Patriots’ schedule gets really soft starting this week), neither of these teams is winning out. After this week, Buffalo hosts New England and Denver and travels to Cincinnati (before closing versus the Jets in New Jersey). I guarantee the Bills are losing two and quite possibly all three of those games. The Dolphins’ chances are slightly better, since they host the Jets and Titans in weeks 15 and 16. But they have to travel to San Diego next week and to Foxboro in week 17. Those are both losses. Does that mean there’s nothing exciting about this game? Hardly. This is a good matchup that pits a team on the ascent (Miami) against a team on the decline (Buffalo) at the exact moment when they’re passing each on the way up and down the rankings. At least on paper, the teams are very evenly matched on defense, right in the middle of the NFL pack (though it’s worth noting here that Buffalo’s D has been amazing at home and terrible on the road). Both allow about 323 yards and 20 points per game. Miami’s been stronger on offense, however, logging 315 yards and nearly 18 points per game to Buffalo’s 244 and not quite 15. And it’s notable that the better part of Miami’s offense is its ground game, while Buffalo’s D has struggle terribly against the run. The Bills allow 4.7 yards per carry, 146 yards per game and have given up 15 rushing touchdowns; the Dolphins’ running backs average 4.5 yards per carry and 117 yards per game. The Fins have only rushed for seven touchdowns this season, but, as noted here previously, Miami offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has a habit of calling pass play after pass play on the goal line (which is one of the reasons Miami is 4-7 right now instead of 5-6 or 6-5). I expect Miami to be able to take advantage of Buffalo’s weakness against the run, and while I expect the game to stay fairly competitive through the first two or two and a half quarters, I think Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and the Fins will eventually run away with this one, winning by about 10 points.

Cincinnati (+3) at Pittsburgh
So let me get this straight: I’m supposed to believe that Pittsburgh’s poor showing Monday night against the Indianapolis Colts indicates that the Steelers are headed for a loss to the Bengals? Sorry, folks, but I’m just not buying it. To begin with the obvious, the Bengals are, um, not the Colts. Not even a little. And more to the point, the Steelers are most decidedly not the Baltimore Ravens. Why does that matter? Well, does my memory fail me or didn’t the Bengals D just give up 29 points to a Ravens offense that had been scoring all of 11.6 points per game heading into last week? And didn’t they do that in the Bengals’ home stadium? And, wait, hasn’t Pittsburgh been putting up roughly double the points per game Baltimore has? And giving up three fewer points per game than Baltimore, too boot? And didn’t the Steelers beat the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season? And hasn’t Cincinnati managed to lose pretty much every time it’s faced a good opponent all season long? So where is it again that so many people are getting the notion that an upset is brewing here? It isn’t. I’m taking the Steelers straight up and looking for a push versus the spread.

Dallas (+3) at NY Giants
This is one of those games where I have to pick what I think is going to happen rather than what I hope will happen. I don’t like the Cowboys. Never have, going back to the days when they billed themselves as America’s Team (says who, assholes?). And I’ve picked up more reasons to dislike them over the years. I think their owner will probably hurt the game over the long term (I worry about how his short-sighted, self-serving approach will manifest itself as league-first, long-view owners like Wellington Mara continue to pass on or leave the league). And I hate their coach’s fucking guts. (I used to just think Parcells was just a jerk, but then he pulled the rug out from under his then-team, the Patriots, on the eve of Super Bowl XXXI, and I’ve wished him nothing but failure and misery since.) My continuing affection for Drew Bledsoe has softened me on the Boys a bit (if they win the Super Bowl, which I think could happen, I’ll be happy for Drew), but it hasn’t made me a Cowboys fan. Nothing ever will. On the other hand, I like the Giants. Always have. Even when that asshole Bill Parcells was coaching them (partially because I didn’t know what an asshole he was at the time). I like the Giants even though I found Eli Manning’s little prima donna bullshit act around the 2004 NFL draft offensive. (I never quite respected John Elway after he pulled that kind of crap and I’ll never quite respect Eli, either. Plus, I kind of find the whole Manning clan a bit self-satisfied and whiny.) So what I’d like to see is a Giants win by three times the spread. But what I expect to see is a Cowboys victory. Why? Well, I haven’t been overly impressed with the Giants of late. Their play has been sloppy. They’ve let games they should have won get away from them. The Cowboys, meanwhile, impress me more with each passing week. I think Dallas will have some success running the ball early in the game, which should slow down the Giants’ impressive pass rush just enough to let Bledsoe complete some big passes. And I think the Cowboys young but quite good, and ever-improving, defense will find a way to exploit some mistakes by Manning. Add those things together and you get Dallas winning the game and putting an effective stranglehold on the NFC East.

Green Bay (+7) at Chicago
The Bears score 16.5 points a game and allow fewer than 11. The Packers score about 21 and allow about 20 (and yet, they’re 2-9). These teams aren’t as far apart as their records would indicate, but they are exactly as far about as their stats indicate. So I’m taking the Bears straight up, the Pack with the points. ‘Cause that’s what the numbers tell me to do.

Houston (+8.5) at Baltimore
Is there a team in football that like losing as much as the Houston Texans? Here’s a team that last week took a 14-point lead into the fourth quarter at home against a team being quarterbacked by a rookie out of Harvard (yes, the birthplace of American football, but not exactly a modern day pro prospect factory) and still managed to lose the goddamned game. Baltimore, meanwhile, put up 29 second-half points last week at Cincinnati after falling behind by 34. The Ravens still lost, of course, but at least they showed they’re gonna stay competitive no matter what. And with that in mind, how do you think this game is gonna turn out? My money’s on the Ravens. And while I don’t even trust Baltimore to score eight and a half points total most weeks, I’ll go ahead and give that many this time out.

Jacksonville (-2.5) at Cleveland
You know what? I like Dave Garrard. I don’t think he’s Byron Leftwich or anything, but I do think he’s a way better quarterback than the starters for at least half a dozen and maybe 10 or 12, teams in the league. And I like his chances against Cleveland’s 13th-ranked pass D a lot better than I like rookie Charlie Frye’s chances facing Jacksonville’s second-ranked pass D in what will be his first NFL start (if he starts, that is; it appears he will given Trent Dilfer’s knee injury, but Romeo Crennel isn’t saying for sure). Indeed, I like Garrard so much I’m starting him over that useless bum Kerry Collins for one of my fantasy teams. So there. Take that, Kerry. Oh, right, the game. I’m taking Jacksonville and giving the points.

Minnesota (-2) at Detroit
I’ve got an idea. Instead of everyone in the pro-football media engaging in lengthy discussions about whether Matt Millen will still be GM of the Lions come January or February, how about cutting right to the chase and having a discussion of whether anyone in the Ford family has half a brain. Seems like it should be simpler for those who know the Fords to answer. And it answer’s the Millen question. Because if the answer is yes, there is half a brain there someplace, then Millen is gone. He’s about as bad an executive as you’ll find anywhere in the NFL. He makes terrible draft decisions. He’s got the wrong on-field personnel in place for the kind of offense he wants to run. The team is 20-55 under his direction. They’ve gone through coach after coach trying to fix the problem. And no coach who has the potential to bring the team around is going to go anywhere near Detroit as long as Millen remains in place, guaranteeing failure for everyone. So you tell me: Will the Fords be smart enough to dump Millen or won’t they? I don’t know. I also don’t know if new Vikings owner Zygi Wilf will be smart enough to recognize that, despite his team’s recent resurgence, he’s still gotta dump his bum of a head coach, Mike Tice, in the off-season. (Hey, maybe if the Lions keep Millen and the Vikes dump Tice, Matt can hire Mike as his new head coach and potentially bring about the first 0-16 finish in NFL history — but with great parties along the way.) Here’s a couple of things I do know: the Vikings are winning games in spite of their problems; and replacing Steve Mariucci with Dick Jauron (who went 35-45 as head coach of the Chicago Bears) isn’t gonna solve a damned thing for the Lions. So I’m taking Minnesota and giving the pair.

Tampa Bay (-3.5) vs. New Orleans (Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge)
Yes, I still think Chris Simms sucks. But that doesn’t mean I’m stupid enough to pick the New Orleans (or wherever they’re headed) Saints. Not by a long shot. Tampa wins by 14.

Tennessee (+15.5) at Indianapolis
I’ll be honest: I just don’t have a whole lot to say about this game. Hits me as about as much of a foregone conclusion as the oddsmakers think it is. I mean, I know some folks are talking about the possibility of a trap here, but come on. Maybe if the Colts were coming into this one 7-0 rather than 11-0. Or maybe even if they were 10-1. After all, the Colts do have much more important games coming up in weeks 14, 15 and 16, when they’ll face a division rival/likely playoff team, a potential playoff opponent, and a potential Super Bowl opponent. It’d be easy to overlook Tennessee under the circumstances. The trouble with that reasoning, however, is that this Colts team believes its playing for a perfect season (it isn’t gonna get there, and I’ll get to that in a second), and isn’t gonna let up just because its got a soft matchup. Now, as for why the Colts are not gonna go 16-0 in the regular season. OK, let’s let’s assume the Colts manage to find a way to beat Jacksonville next week. They haven’t had great success against the Jags in the past, and they barely managed to win their week-two home game against Jacksonville. But the Jags have a new quarterback, thanks to Byron Leftwich’s season-ending injury a week ago (let’s face it; that’s what it is), so while they should be able to hold the Colts to relatively few points, there’s no knowing right now whether they’ll be able to score many themselves. We’ll have to look at this game next week, of course, but let’s leave it until then. And let’s set aside the Chargers, who are headed to Indianapolis in week 15. There are plenty of folks who see that game as the one the Colts are most likely to lose, but I don’t see it. The Chargers can be dangerous, but they haven’t played spectacular football against really good teams this season, and the Colts should be able to edge them. Let’s look at the week 16 road game in Seattle. If they Colts go into that game at 14-0, they’ll have clinched home field through the playoffs, which is to say they’ll have nothing other than a perfect season to play for. Tony Dungy has already said (on more than one occasion) that he’s after a ring, not a record, and he will rest starters if he gets the opportunity. Now, sure there are players on the team who aren’t gonna like that, and who have said they’ll agitate to play, but they’re not gonna make that decision, Dungy is. And Dungy is also gonna take into consideration the fact that Seattle, at least on paper, has very good chance of getting to the Super Bowl. He’s not gonna go into Seattle and show everything he’s got to a potential rival for the league championship (in a game that will be only six weeks away at the time) to win a match that means absolutely nothing to his team. Indy goes 14-0, Dungy’s sitting his best players. And facing a Seattle team that will very likely be playing to clinch home field through the playoffs at the time, that spells a loss. It’s as simple as that, kids. Now, back to the game at hand. As noted, the Colts win it going away. How far away is anybody’s guess, but I’ve gotta figure 20 points is as reasonable an estimate as any other, so I’m giving the fifteen and a half.

Arizona (-3) at San Francisco
This game was a lot easier to pick before the Cardinals lost their kicker, Neil Rackers, who’s been responsible for 110 of the team’s 222 points this season. Still, Arizona’s opponent this week is still San Francisco, so I still like the Cards to come out on top. And I’m guessing they’ll take it by about four.

Washington (-3) at St. Louis
Ryan Fitzpatrick did look pretty good coming in at quarterback for the Rams last week. I’ll give him that. Of course, that was against the Houston Texans, a team that gives up 130 more yards per game against the pass than the Redskins. So, you know, while I still believe Washington’s in a skid that’ll last through the end of the season, they can hardly help but win this one. Against the spread, though, it’s a push at best.

Denver (-1) at Kansas City
I said last week that the game against the Patriots would be the last one the Chiefs would win this season. I still believe that. Sure, Kansas City won decisively in that match. And, sure, Larry Johnson had another big day on the ground. But the Patriots don’t stop the run so good. And the Broncos do. Denver’s D is the best in the league against the ground game, in fact, giving up just 79 yards per game on the ground (roughly two thirds New England’s 119). Kansas City’s run defense is pretty good, too, but not as good as Denver’s. And the Chiefs’ passing D is slightly more awful than the Broncos’. So, difficulties of winning at Arrowhead in December aside, I’m taking the Super Bowl-bound Broncos (oof, it hurts to say that) and, of course, giving the stinking point.

NY Jets (+10) at New England
Mark my words: the Patriots have lost for the last time in the regular season. They won’t lose to the Bills in Buffalo next week, as many people believe. They won’t lose at home to the Buccaneers two weeks from now. They won’t lose to the Jets in New Jersey, or the Dolphins in Foxboro. And they sure as hell won’t lose to one of the worst teams in the league at home this weekend. Whether they’ll win by more than 10 without Corey Dillon in the game is another matter — I expect they will, but you can never tell with this Pats team — but they’ll certainly take it straight up.

Oakland (+11) at San Diego
Can we get Kerry Collins off the damned field? Would that be possible? Probably not, huh. Because while it’s clear that Kerry is not the future of the franchise, it’s also clear that Norv Turner is more concerned with his own future than the team’s. He’s not gonna take a look at his options, because he knows the only way he’s gonna preserve his job is by finding a way to come out of this awful season on a strong note. He’s shooting for 7-9, I think. And the awful news for Raiders fans is that he just might get it. Are all the Raiders problems Turner’s fault? Hardly. Nor Collins’, frankly. But Kerry’s not helping any, and at this point neither is Norv. So what does all this have to do with the game at hand. Nothing at all. It’s just that there’s very little worth saying about the game at hand. LaDainian Tomlinson is gonna rush for about 700 yards and 23 touchdowns. Kerry’s gonna take 40 sacks and throw a dozen picks. And the Chargers are gonna win by 787 points. (Or at the very least by two touchdowns.)

Seattle (-4) at Philadelphia
After further review … nobody knows what the hell happened. Maybe the New York Giants scored the two controversial touchdowns they got credit for in last week’s near-upset of the Seahawks, and maybe they didn’t. Maybe the game was as close as it was or maybe it wasn’t. Maybe the Seahawks got lucky that veteran kicker Jay Feely suddenly lost all ability to put the football between the uprights, or maybe the Giants never should have been close enough for field goals to matter anyhow. Maybe the league officiating office admitted officials messed up the replay reviews on those two touchdowns, and maybe it didn’t. It’s all a big mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a sub roll and eaten hastily by Mike Holmgren between press conferences. And none of it has anything to do with this matchup. Neither does Terrell Owens, who’s probably still an asshole. Or Senator Arlen Specter. Or, you know, much of anything. So what do I expect here? I expect the Seahawks to play a better game against the Eagles than they did against the Giants. I expect the Eagles to play a worse game against the Seahawks than they did against the Packers. And so I expect the Seahawks to come out ahead by seven to 10.

Why, why, why did the feast have to end? I could eat another damned turkey right now. Which has all of nothing to do with football, of course. It’s just that, well, I sorta shot my intro load for the week on the Thanksgiving picks. So if you’re into that sort of thing, scroll down and read (or reread) that bit. Otherwise, it’s on to the rest of the week twelve games.

Baltimore (+9) at Cincinnati
Just be thankful this isn’t the Sunday night game. Imagine having to watch another prime time dog like last week’s Kansas City-Houston showdown. And after all, this had to look like a pretty good matchup on paper heading into the season. So we dodged a bullet there. What’s that? New Orleans-New York Jets is the Sunday night game this week? Hmmmm. Man, I sure do wish we could get this game instead. The Bengals take out their frustration from last week’s loss to the Colts on the hapless Ravens. I don’t a whole lot of faith in or respect for the Bengals (and none of either for the Ravens), so I’m not putting money anywhere near this game, but if I had to bet for some reason (like maybe if I were trying to get accepted into a secret society or something, and one of the requirements was to make bets on lousy football games), I’d probably look for Cincy to cover.

Carolina (-3.5) at Buffalo
Man, can the Panthers not afford to lose again this week. While I saw last week’s loss to Chicago coming a mile away, the outcome wasn’t at all good for Carolina, and another loss might signal the start of a tumble from which … ah, hell, the Panthers would still be a better team than the Falcons (who have already lost this week) and Tampa Bay (who are on their way to losing this week), and they’ll find a way to win the NFC South even if they don’t manage a win here. The challenges for Carolina this week are that it’s tough to play a second consecutive road game (especially when you’re a warm-weather team headed to yet another cold-weather stadium), and that the Bills’ defense has a way of not giving up a whole lot of points at home. That means the Panthers are gonna have to play great D themselves if they’re gonna avoid another tough defeat. The good news for Carolina is that, home or away, Buffalo’s D isn’t nearly on par with the Bears’. Buffalo gives up about 75 yards and 10 points per game more than Chicago ( and 35 yards and four points more than Carolina, which seems worth noting). That difference would have just about done the trick for the Panthers last week, and I expect it’ll be just enough to get them past the Bills this week. I will take Buffalo to keep it to less than a field-goal, however. And I promise you, I’m betting the under.

Chicago (+3) at Tampa Bay
This is supposed to be the game of the week for purists. Two big defenses going head-to-head, slugging it out, possibly with the NFC two seed and its concomitant first-round playoff bye at stake. That’s how it’s been sold anyhow. But, uh, what the fuck? Hasn’t Tampa’s defense been struggling like you wouldn’t believe lately? Hasn’t it given up 27, 35 and 34 points in its last three games (with Atlanta, Washington and Carolina, respectively)? Isn’t its sort of impressive (at least on paper) 10th-ranked average of 18.3 points allowed per game more a reflection of its success in stopping such high-powered offensive outfits as San Francisco, Miami and (in the very beginning of the season when both teams were struggling mightily) Buffalo and Minnesota? See, I’m looking at Tampa Bay’s semi-impressive defense and average offense and thinking Chicago, with it’s significantly less than impressive O and stifling D should be able to get the job done. Of course, that’s all got something to do with the fact that I remained entirely unimpressed with Tampa quarterback Chris Simms. But the fact is, I’m not exactly in love with Chicago QB Kyle Orton either. I just think Chicago asks a lot less of Orton than Tampa Bay does of Simms, which gives Orton a better chance to live up to expectations. I anticipate that’s pretty much what we’ll see here. That an another upset victory by the Bears.

Cleveland (+3.5) at Minnesota
A couple of weeks back I noted that there was sure to be a team that hadn’t played well to start the season that would turn it around, winning a bunch of games and either just missing or just making the playoffs (only to go out in the first round). It wasn’t an out-on-a-limb-type prediction; it happens every year. What I didn’t predict, because I would have been wrong, was which team it would be. I’ll say this: I never would have guessed at the time that it could be the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are one of the worst-coached teams in the league. They’re undisciplined. They lack drive. And in some key areas, they appear to lack ability. And the fact of the matter is that they’ve continued to play fairly poorly over the last few weeks. Thing is, they’ve played poorly and won, largely due to mistakes by opponents who have committed too many turnovers and allowed the Vikings to score defensive and special teams touchdowns. The Vikes have also, I believe, benefited from the fact that they’ve got Brad Johnson starting under center. I’m not saying Johnson’s a better quarterback than injured Daunte Culpepper (though I’ve always liked Johnson, and the man does have a ring). What I mean is that it seems to me that Johnson has the advantage of not throwing passes to Randy Moss, who isn’t there to catch them (Moss being a member of the Oakland Raiders now and all). And as I’ve said before, I believe a big part of why Culpepper was throwing as many picks as he was before he went down for the season was that he was continuing to throw balls to Moss. It takes time for a quarterback to get used to throwing to a guy like Moss, one of those rare receivers who you throw to when he’s covered and know he’s gonna find a way to make the catch against all odds. I have to imagine it takes longer still to get used to not throwing to him. It’s neither here nor there in the end. Culpepper’s gone for reasons that have nothing to do with performance, and Johnson’s in there winning games. My guess is that Brad will do just enough to keep the Vikings competitive into week 15 or 16, and save Mike Tice’s job in the bargain. That way, the Vikes can come right back and be completely undisciplined and substantially mediocre again next season. Hooray. Much as I enjoyed seeing Romeo Crennel’s Browns have some success last week against Miami, I’m not hoping for the same in this game. I like the Vikings enough to give the points.

New England (+3) at Kansas City
My sense is that it’s gonna seem strange to look back on this game six weeks from now. Why? Because I think this will be the last game this season that the Patriots lose and the last game this season that the Chiefs win. And it’s gonna seem strange looking at an 11-5 Pats team on a roll and preparing to host a playoff game as the AFC’s three or four seed and remembering that their last loss came at the hands of a 7-9 Chiefs team in turmoil, home for the off-season and facing the probable retirement of their head coach. After this week, Kansas City hosts Denver, travels to Dallas and New York (Giants), then goes home to host San Diego and Cincinnati. I don’t see them beating any of those teams. New England, meanwhile, goes home to face the other New York team (the lousy one), travels to Buffalo, heads back to Foxboro to host Tampa Bay, heads to New York for a rematch with the Jets, then closes hosting Miami on New Years day. Only two of those games, at Buffalo and vs. Tampa Bay, pose a real threat of a loss, and I don’t see the Pats losing either of them. Buffalo plays tough at home, but the Pats should have enough to get by them. And Jon Gruden-coached teams have a bad history in Foxboro (plus, Chris Simms still sucks). Of course, none of that has anything to do with why I believe Kansas City is gonna win this weekend. That’s entirely to do with home field and health. The Chiefs have certainly lost some players to injury this season, but overall they’re in much better shape than the Pats right now. Arrowhead is a very tough place for visiting teams to play. And the Chiefs have more on the line at the moment. The Pats have little other than divisional matchups ahead of them; whether they win the AFC East is gonna have everything to do with how they play in those games and next to nothing to do with what they do this weekend. The Chiefs aren’t winning the West; they’re in a fight for a wild card slot and they’ve got to catch Cincinnati, Pittsburgh or Jacksonville, and hold off San Diego, to get it. A loss here and their playoff hopes are pretty much dashed. So I expect Kansas City to come out and play like this game means everything to them (because it does). I expect the Chiefs get some mileage on the ground against a struggling Pats’ D and ultimately win a high-scoring game (I don’t think KC will be able to keep New England out of the end zone) by about the margin of the spread. And I expect none of it to matter by the time January 8 rolls around. (By the way, I hope I’m wrong about the outcome of this game. This is the first time I’ve picked against the Patriots this season, and I hope they make me regret it by finding a way to win it.)

San Diego (-3) at Washington
At the same time as I made my easy prediction about a team that hadn’t fared well in the first half of the season turning it around and turning some heads in the second half (see my pick on the Minnesota-Cleveland game just above), I also made an easy, generic, happens-somewhere-every-season prediction about how some team that had looked really impressive early on would go into a tailspin to end the season. The Redskins could be that team, except that they never really looked all that impressive to begin with. Sure they won some key games, but it wasn’t by playing good football. A lot of the time, it was a matter of pure luck. Eventually that shit always catches up to you, and I think it’s caught up to Washington over the last couple of weeks. The Redskins come into this game on a two-game losing streak. At 5-5, they’re about one loss away from de facto elimination in the race for the NFC East title. And they’ve get to beat an AFC team this season. The Chargers, the Skins’ fourth and final AFC opponent of the season, are continuing to play just well enough to stay in the race for one of the AFC’s wild card spots (I think they’ll just make it, likely edging Cincinnati). I expect them to stay on course this week, beating Washington by about double the spread margin.

San Francisco (+8.5) at Tennessee
Ho, boy. I know there’s a football game being played in here somewhere. I’m just not sure where. And I’m not about to go looking for it. Just put me down for Tennessee straight up, San Francisco with the points.

St. Louis (-3) at Houston
Ask me why I think the Rams are gonna find a way to lose this game and I’m not sure what I’ll say. It’s not Jamie Martin, who’s back under center for St. Louis in place of the injured (again) Marc Bulger. Hell, the last time Martin went in for Bulger, he led the team to two straight wins. It’s not the fact that the Rams’ defense is ranked 29th in the league, because Houston’s is ranked 30th. And it’s certainly not that I was so impressed by the Texans’ offense last Sunday night vs. Kansas City. Who on earth could possibly have been impressed by that? What it is, really, is that I figure the Texans can’t help but pull one more win out of their asses at some point this season, and I’m guessing this game gives them as good a chance as they’re likely to get. That reasoning sucks, but it almost validates my gut, so I’m taking Houston and the points.

Jacksonville (-3.5) at Arizona
I’ll give the Jaguars this: They mostly win when they’re supposed to win. Take that and add it to the fact that the starting quarterback on the other side of the field is still Kurt Warner and you get yourself a formula for a Jags victory. And, oh, ah. Hmmmm. I’m giving the points. Yeah, what the hell?

Miami (+7) at Oakland
So what do you do when your defense is already kind of shabby and suddenly you find yourselves looking forward to closing the season without Warren Sapp. Well, one thing is you hope to get opponents like Miami and then, when you do, you hope those teams will continue to turn the ball over a lot. I’m anticipating seeing three or four picks. And I’m anticipating an Oakland win by 10 or so.

Green Bay (+4.5) at Philadelphia
I was starting to wonder when was the last time these two teams met when neither of them was in any way relevant to the off-season. I don’t remember it happening. Ever. But here it is. Meaningless and fairly boring. So, OK, yeah. I’ll take the Eagles and give up the points.

NY Giants (+4.5) at Seattle
This would be the old AFL game of the week if both teams weren’t in the NFC. What I mean is, I expect to see very little other than offense happening in this match. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Offense won’t get you far in the playoffs, but it’ll usually get you to the playoffs. And it should be a lot of fun to watch. I’m taking Seattle straight up, New York with the points.

New Orleans (pick ’em) at NY Jets
I have nothing to say about this game Awful, awful football. And, oh, I don’t know, out goes Y-O-U. I’m taking the visitors and expecting to lose.

Pittsburgh (+8) at Indianapolis
You go right on ahead and believe whatever the hell you want. Pittsburgh’s still not winning this game. Indy will drop one or two before the season’s out (if they make it to 14-0 they’ll have clinched home field through the playoffs by virtue of Denver’s opening week loss to AFC opponent Miami; and Tony Dungy has made it clear he’ll rest starters, saying he’s playing for a ring, not a record), but it won’t be this one. Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger or no Roethlisberger, doesn’t have the stuff to keep up with Indianapolis on offense. And on D, well, yeah, Pittsburgh’s better, but not by enough to go into Indy’s stadium and pull off a victory. I’m taking the Colts straight up, the Steelers with the points.

Today, I’m thankful that the whole ridiculous Terrell Owens/Philadelphia Eagles ordeal is finally over with. Now maybe we can start talking about football again. But probably not. I anticipate there will continue to be a T.O. story a week (maybe one a day) for the rest of the season? Where will he be next season? Who will be fool enough to think they can work with him? How is his court case against the Eagles (can there be any doubt that there will be one?) progressing? Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It’s never, ever gonna go away, is it? Well, OK, then, lemme start again. Today, I’m thankful that there’s actually a game worth watching being played on Thanksgiving. One out of two ain’t bad, I suppose.

Happy Thanksgiving. I’ll check back in with the rest of my week twelve picks come Friday.

Atlanta (-3) at Detroit
This much is clear: Atlanta is not making it to the post-season this year. The Falcons showed in their loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday that they simply cannot beat good teams. They’re 3-3 at home this season (and headed for 4-4; they’ve got New Orleans and Carolina coming in), and while they’ve made up for that on the road a bit, they’ve got a tough slate of road games ahead of them (they’ve gotta travel to Carolina, Tampa Bay and Chicago). The way I see it, they’re headed for 8-8, which doesn’t get you anywhere near the playoffs this season in either conference. All that said, you’ve still gotta like the Falcons to get by the absolutely awful Detroit Lions. I’ll take Atlanta and give the points.

Denver (-2) at Dallas
I’m looking at this game as a possible Super Bowl XL preview. I’m quite certain Denver is headed to Detroit Feb. 5 (sorry, Colts fans, I don’t expect you to accept it, but your team just isn’t getting past the Broncos). And I’m starting to really believe Dallas could get there too. I’m quite sure Dallas will come out on top in the NFC East, though I’d much rather see the Giants win the division. The Cowboys are getting better as the season goes on, and my gut says that dickhead Bill Parcells will find a way to coach them to a conference championship. Once they get to Detroit, well, it’s all a matter of whom they face. I think they’d beat the Colts (who still don’t have the D to win a championship) and I think they’d play Denver tough, but just lose. This week, I think the Cowboys are in for a very tough game. The teams are close to being evenly matched (Denver’s been a bit more productive on offense, Dallas a tad stronger on defense) and under normal circumstances you’d expect what minor advantage Denver has on a neutral field to be erased by the fact that the game is being played in Dallas. But the circumstances aren’t normal. Dallas will be playing it’s third game in 11 days, which ain’t easy (even if the game in the middle of the three was against Detroit), while Denver is coming off a cakewalk of a matchup with the softer-than-soft New York Jets. So I like the Broncos to edge the Cowboys here, though I expect the game to come down to the last couple of minutes.

John Riggins thinks it’s upset week. He said so yesterday on Sirius NFL Radio’s “Afternoon Blitz” and picked a bunch of upsets accordingly. I don’t know what that means (Riggins isn’t nearly as good a prognosticator as he once was a running back), but I figured I’d make note of it, because, hell, it could happen. We haven’t had what I call upside-down week yet (I call it that because when a bunch of teams that are seven-, eight- and nine-point underdogs win all in one week, you can’t just talk about upsets, you’ve got to figure the football world somehow got flipped over), and they always come, so, hell, it could happen. Riggins could be right. I kinda hope he is (so long as the Saints don’t benefit from it), because I’d like to get the damned thing out of the way so I can get back to picking, and betting, without worrying about when it’s gonna hit. But while I’m certainly looking for a few upsets this week, I’m not gonna start picking teams like the Niners and the Jets. So, as usual, take this stuff as you will. Don’t make bets based on my predictions. And don’t do anything based on what I told you Riggins had to say. Here goes.

Arizona (+9) at St. Louis
Well, I’ll give old Kurt Warner his due. Kurt managed to throw for 359 yards and a touchdown in last week’s Cardinals loss to the Detroit Lions. All-in-all, that ain’t a bad day (statistically speaking, of course; his team still lost, which is what really matters). Hell, if Joey Harrington hadn’t posted a career day, the Cards might actually have won the game. And that’s gotta count for something, right? Or maybe not. The fact of the matter is, while the Rams aren’t terribly good, they’re probably a tougher matchup for the Cards than the Lions were. In the end, it all boils down to an irrelevant meeting of teams that aren’t going anywhere — or even anywhere near anywhere. I expect both offenses to do OK, and I expect final score that’s a good bit closer than nine points, but I still expect the Rams to come out on top.

Carolina (-3) at Chicago
The Panthers are the team favored by many (including me) to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XL (though I’m starting to believe Dallas could get there too). The Bears, meanwhile, though they lead the (awful) NFC North and have the best defense in the league, haven’t yet managed to beat a team with a winning record. The Panthers are a balanced team. The Bears are all D (which does not simply reflect the fact that they’ve got a rookie starting under center). So, yeah, while this game is being played in Chicago, Carolina should be able to win it by about the three points the oddsmakers predict. But I don’t think they will. I’m looking for interception-prone Jake Delhomme to put a few balls in the hands of interception-happy Chicago DBs and for the giveaway/takeaway ratio to decide the game in favor of the Bears.

Detroit (+7.5) at Dallas
In a weird way (that wouldn’t stand up to any kind of close analysis), this year’s Cowboys remind me of the 2001 Patriots. They’ve been winning most of their games, but typically not by convincing margins. And they’ve pulled a few wins (like the one over the Eagles Monday night) directly out of their asses. That’s why I think they’ve got a chance of winning the NFC this season. (And much as I hate the Cowboys and Bill Parcells, I’d kind of like to see that happen. Why? Well, because I like Drew Bledsoe and I’d like to see him get another chance to win a championship, especially after the way he was discarded by Buffalo in the off-season. And because while I don’t think Indy will make it to the big show — they won’t get past Denver — if by some chance they do, I’d love to see them get there and lose to a team like Dallas, with its personnel and playing-style links to New England). Not a bit of this has anything to do with Sunday’s game, which I don’t think the Boys should have any difficulty winning by a decent margin, so long as they’re not looking past this game in anticipation of their Thanksgiving matchup with Denver. I’m taking the Cowboys and giving the points.

Jacksonville (-4) at Tennessee
I don’t know what the hell to say about this game. If I were setting the odds, Jacksonville, a much, much better team than Tennessee, would be giving something more like eight. And I’d expect the Jags to cover.

Miami (+2.5) at Cleveland
My guess is that if these two teams end up meeting around this same time next year (it’s possible, since both seem likely to finish third in their division, which would ensure a meeting, though not at any particular point in the season), it’ll be a game to watch. Both teams are rebuilding. Both clearly have coaches that have it in them to get their teams into contention by next season (though Miami’s Nick Saban obviously has more in place in terms of player personnel than Cleveland’s Romeo Crennel, a reflection, in both cases, of what was there when the coaches arrived). Both should at least be fun to watch next season. This season, it’s still a close matchup, and one worth watching if you have the chance. It doesn’t really mean anything (Cleveland is officially done, Miami most of the way there), but it still could be a good game. I honestly don’t know which way it’s gonna go, so I’ll invoke two rules of thumb: When in doubt, pick the home team. And when in doubt pick the team not quarterbacked by Sage Rosenfels. In both cases here, that happens to be the Browns. So I’m taking them and giving the pair. Why not?

New Orleans (+9) at New England
I’m starting to think that rather than pick the games, I should predict which Patriots starters’ seasons will end with an injury each week. Yes, that’s right. It’s that bad. The Pats are starting to look like the 2004 Carolina Panthers, except that the Patriots went into this season a better team than the Panthers did last year, and likely will make the playoffs despite all the players placed on injured reserve (though it’s hard to imagine they’ll get past the divisional round). I’m not gonna start picking injuries, of course. I’d hate to be right. So I’m just gonna pick the game, and there, I’m sticking with the trends. I’ve picked the Patriots every week this season so far. That’s worked out OK for me. I’ve picked against the Saints virtually every week this season so far. That’s worked out very well for me. So I’ll take the Pats, though I can’t put any faith in a team playing defense as poorly as New England has been to win by more than a touchdown.

Oakland (+6) at Washington
I’m taking the Raiders to win this one outright. Why? Is it because I like the way the Raiders match up against the Redskins? Well, I don’t dislike the matchup, but it’s not really that. Is it because I think the Raiders are about to turn their season around? Not so much. Is it because I suspect the Redskins have begun an outright collapse? A little bit. Is it because I think Norv Turner wants this so bad he can taste it? Well, I do believe that, though I’m not sure I think it will make the difference. Is it that I expect the “good” Kerry Collins to show up and punish the Redskins’ secondary? Not really. You never know what Kerry you’re gonna get until it’s too damned late to do anything about it. Truth is, I’m picking Oakland mostly on gut. I think the Raiders will win, because I think the Raiders will win. That’s a stupid way to pick football games, though, so I suggest ignoring me on this even more than you ignore me on everything else.

Philadelphia (+7) at NY Giants
Which team’s collapse in week ten was more meaningful? The Giants held the Minnesota Vikings to next to no yards on offense and still managed to lose their game at the last minute (with special teams and Eli Manning contributing equally to the loss). Then on Monday night, the Eagles outplayed the Dallas Cowboys for 56 minutes and still managed to lose at the end (with one of the worst bits of play calling of the week — after Miami offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s decision to throw on four straight plays after achieving first and goal at the New England five yard line — setting up a game-winning defensive touchdown, and bringing about a likely end to Donovan McNabb’s season). I don’t know which of those losses was worse. I do know that the Eagles’ loss was far more disastrous. Philly’s season is over, and its long reign over the NFC with it. The Giants, meanwhile, are still working toward a playoff berth, and possibly a division championship (though I suspect they’ll lose the latter to Dallas). And as far as I know, Giants coach Tom Coughlin didn’t lose valuable prep time this week sitting in a hotel room trying to convince an arbitrator to accept the obvious fact that Terrell Owens is an asshole. So I’m taking New York and giving the points.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Baltimore
You know when you’re in real trouble as a football team? When the news that Tommy Maddox will be starting at quarterback for a visiting opponent leads oddsmakers to rate you a three and a half point underdog. That can only hurt like hell. Brian Billick’s farewell tour in Baltimore takes another difficult turn as the Steelers run the ball down the Ravens’ throats and walk away winners by a field goal.

Tampa Bay (+6) at Atlanta
Just when I say Chris Simms sucks and shouldn’t be starting for an NFL team (see my week ten picks), the kid comes up with an amazing day, throwing three touchdown passes and leading his team to a key last-minute win over Washington. Guess I owe Chris an apology. Except that I still think he sucks. And I expect him to prove it this week. The Falcons run, run, run, run, run. DeAngelo Hall picks off a Simms pass. And Atlanta walks away with a win by a touchdown.

Seattle (-12.5) at San Francisco
The Seahawks are another team that could end up in the Super Bowl. Except for how they’re the Seattle Seahawks and doomed to collapse, Shaun Alexander or no Shaun Alexander. But not this week. Not against the 49ers. This week, Alexander finds the end zone another four times and the Seahawks win and cover.

Buffalo (+11) at San Diego
Hey, J.P. Losman’s back and looking good. Hey, the Bills just might get it together and challenge New England for the AFC East title. Or, hey, maybe not. The Chiefs, who managed only three points at Buffalo last week, simply aren’t that good a team. And neither are the Bills. I’m taking LaDainian Tomlinson … um, I mean the Chargers, and giving the points.

Indianapolis (-5.5) at Cincinnati
I’ve been sorely tempted to pick the upset in this game all week. Straight up, that is. There’s little question but that Indianapolis is due for a loss. The Colts are 9-0 and since you can’t go undefeated through a modern NFL season, they’ve gotta find one or two to drop somewhere in the next seven games. This one would seem a likely choice. The Colts are on the road. It’s supposed to be cold in Cincinnati. The Bengals, though tied with Pittsburgh for the AFC North lead at 7-2, need to make a statement that they can indeed beat good teams. It all says upset. But the stats say different. And they say different in a big way. The Colts do virtually everything better than the Bengals (except pass the ball, believe it or not; the Bengals average seven more yards per game than the Colts in the air). And, most tellingly, the Colts stop the run a good bit better than the Bengals, allowing just 97.4 yards per game to the Bengals’ 124.2. (It’s worth noting here, however, that in yards per carry, there’s only a half-yard difference. The Colts allow 4.2, the Bengals 4.7, neither of which is very good.) The contest here, to my mind, isn’t between Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer; it’s between Edgerrin James and Rudi Johnson. And I’ve gotta think the edge there goes to, well, Edge. I like the Colts by about a field goal.

NY Jets (+13.5) at Denver
Oh, boy, am I glad my local CBS station is showing this game. I can’t wait to see this. What a game. What a matchup. What a rivalry. What a … complete fucking crock. The Broncos do everything well (except stop the pass). The Jets do nothing well (especially pass the ball). The game is already over, and the Broncos have won it by 20.

Kansas City (-6.5) at Houston
Yeah, I know I said just a couple of picks ago that the Chiefs aren’t that good. I meant it. But no team is worse than the Texans. None. So I’m taking Kansas City and giving the points.

Minnesota (+4.5) at Green Bay
I know a lot of folks are picking the Vikings in the upset here. I’m not one of them. Yes, Minnesota did manage to beat the Giants last week. And yes, the Giants are a much better team than the Packers. But I don’t see the Vikes scoring twice on special teams two weeks in a row. And while the Minnesota defense very well might put up seven for the second straight week, I don’t see the offense adding much to that. I think Green Bay finds a way to squeeze out a three-point victory.

Here’s something I can tell you for absolute certain: There’s gonna be at least one and maybe two stunning upsets this week. How do I know that? Well, because there hasn’t been a true shocker in a good while now, so we’re due. Also, there’s usually some kind of upset every week (week nine notwithstanding) and stunning is about the only kind of upset we can get in this week of enormous point spreads. Plus, since most of last week’s much more even matchups went to the favorites, there’s gotta be some kind of upheaval this week to even things out. (And you know, we haven’t had upside-down week yet, so maybe this is it. It’d be one hell of an upside-down week.)

I can also tell you this: Beginning this week, one some that got a rough start to its season will begin an amazing run to December. Maybe it won’t be enough to get that team into the playoffs (depending on how rough a start the team got, what division it’s in, that sort of thing), but it’s gonna be fun to watch and it’s gonna have everyone talking by week 15. Also, beginning this week or next, some team that’s got off to a very strong start is gonna go into an outright tailspin, a collapse so extreme players and coaches (not to mention sportswriters and fans) will still be trying to figure out what hit them come week 17. How do I know this stuff? Because it happens every single year. It’s really as simple as that. Just watch.

Now, as for picking this week’s games, well, it’s pretty simple really. Straight up, anyhow. You mostly pick the favorites, because they’re heavy favorites for a reason. You’re gonna end up thinking you should have seen an upset coming somewhere, and knowing you’d pick some other game the same way if you had it to do all over again despite the upset, but you can’t go guessing at this shit, because you just get hurt that way. Betting? I don’t know. I don’t bet on pro games with giant spreads, and I’d advise you not to either. So take a look at the closer matchups (except the awful-off in Detroit) and find something comfortable in there. Or go for broke and tease both of the double-digit spreads (you pick the direction) and hope for the best. It’s your call. And chances are you’re gonna lose money either way. So you might as well have fun.

Here’s how I see things happening.

Arizona (+3.5) at Detroit
Ah, shit. Do I really have to make a pick in this game? The Kurt Warner-led Cardinals at the Joey Harrington-led Lions? This is fucking football hell, plain and simple. I can’t even think about this mess. I’m just going with the home team straight up and the underdog versus the spread. That’s it. That’s all I’ve got to say about this game. Seriously.

Baltimore (+6) at Jacksonville
Kyle Boller returns to the starting lineup for Baltimore, which could pose more problems for Jacksonville than one would imagine. It’s hard to game plan against a quarterback you can’t watch recent film of. I don’t how the hell Boller’s gonna perform or exactly how healthy he is, or what the current Baltimore offense is gonna do differently with him in the game, and neither does anyone but Brian Billick (Yeah, you can guess, but you might be wrong.) So there’s a chance Boller catches the Jacksonville D off guard. Still, Boller’s got little to nothing around him. There are a couple of guys who can catch balls, sure, but no one on the Ravens has had any success running this season, which should allow the Jacksonville D to key up on Todd Heap and Derrick Mason and make it really hard for Boller to get anything accomplished. I don’t expect Baltimore’s D to give up a whole lot of points, especially with Fred Taylor on the sidelines, but I don’t expect their O to score very many either. So I’m thinking Jacksonville wins, but maybe by a score of 10-6.

Houston (+17) at Indianapolis
Look, obviously you’ve gotta take the Colts to win this thing. That’s a given. But the last thing you wanna do is bet on this game. Because it’s gonna go one of two ways. Either the Colts offense is gonna score every time it gets the ball (and the Colts defense is gonna score once or twice, too) and Indy’s gonna win by more like 35 than 17, or the Colts are gonna have a hard time getting up for a game against the worst team in the league following a major emotional victory at New England and they’re gonna come out flat and end up winning by nine or 10. Think you know which it’s gonna be? Then go ahead and risk your money. But don’t say I didn’t tell you so. (For the record, if I were somehow required to put a bet on this mess, I’d give the damned points, because I just can’t imagine Indy will need to try very hard to score repeatedly on the Houston D. But, really, it’s totally a crapshoot and best avoided.)

Kansas City (+2) at Buffalo
This is maybe the toughest match of the week to suss. On defense, Buffalo stops the pass better than any other team in the league, while the only team worse at pass defense than Kansas City is San Francisco. The Chiefs D, meanwhile, has fared much better against the run than the Bills, who can’t stop anyone. Both teams have run the ball very well, and I don’t expect that to change much with Priest Holmes gone for the season, since Larry Johnson has certainly come on of late. But the Chiefs pass well, while the Bills can’t throw the ball for shit (no matter who’s under center). So the Chiefs have a definite advantage talent-wise. But I still feel like home-field means something here. And all told, that leaves me torn. I can see this game going either way. So I’m gonna pick the team that looked like it was playing to win it all in its last game, and that team’s the Chiefs. I’ll take them with the points, and I’ll take them to win it outright.

Minnesota (+9.5) at NY Giants
Somehow I get the feeling Jon Gruden is looking at what Brad Johnson did at quarterback for Minnesota last week and wishing he’d held onto the guy with whom he won Super Bowl XXXVII. Yeah, Johnson’s never been the best quarterback in the league, but he’s better by leaps and bounds than anyone on Tampa Bay’s current roster. Of course, that’s neither here nor there as far as this game (or any other) is concerned. Johnson’s under center for the Vikes now, and something tells me his second start of the season is gonna prove a tad more difficult than his first. Facing the Lions (with Joey Harrington at QB) at home is one thing; going into the Meadowlands to face the division-leading Giants is quite another. The Giants defense runs hot and cold, so assuming someone’s able to carry the ball effectively for Minnesota (Mewelde Moore will probably get the start despite a sprained wrist, and Michael Bennett remains uneven despite his strong performance last week), Johnson could conceivably complete some passes and put up some points. But my guess is that Johnson and the rest of the Minnesota offense simply won’t get many chances to make anything happen. The Vikings D has been pretty miserable this season. And the Giants offense has seemed virtually unstoppable of late. That, and playing on the road, aren’t good for teams like the Vikes. So I’m looking for a Giants win, and probably another decisive one, which is to say I’m gonna go ahead and give the points.

New England (-3) at Miami
It used to be you’d say the Patriots would probably find a way to win this game. The Pats, after all, are most dangerous after they suffer a bad loss, as they did Monday night when the Colts visited Foxborough. So even though they Patriots can’t seem to stop much of anything on defense, and even though New England has no healthy running backs (well, except Mike Cloud, I guess), you’d figure Tom Brady and the Pats ninth-ranked offense would find a way to put a hurting on a Fins team that, though it may be challenging for the division, is really still rebuilding. But right now I’m not so sure. I mean, I know the Pats can and should knock off the Dolphins, I’m just not sure they want to. There’s been a lot of talk about New England’s lack of passion for the game this week, and it reflects something that’s been fairly evident on the field. That needs to change, and quick, or it’s gonna continue to be a rough season. You can’t win when you’ve got the kind of injuries the Pats do unless you want the hell out of it, and up until now, the Pats haven’t looked like they want it much at all. Now, all of that said, I still like the Pats to win this one, if only by about a field goal, because even if Brady weren’t playing amazing football, and even if the Dolphins D could shut down the Patriots’ passing game, and even though I expect Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both to have good days on the ground, the Dolphins still have Gus Frerotte under center, and Frerotte, who has a 65.3 passer rating and has thrown nine interceptions and only eight touchdowns this season, should find a way to make the Pats’ inconsistent secondary look pretty decent. All of which is to say that while I don’t necessarily expect the Pats to find a way to win, I do expect the Dolphins to find a way to lose.

San Francisco (+13) at Chicago
Look, I don’t’ want to pick on Cody Pickett. I really don’t. First of all, it’s just too damned easy, too obvious. Second, it seems like he’s probably a nice kid and all. And he didn’t create the situation he’s in. Injuries to #1 draft pick Alex Smith and backup QB Ken Dorsey, and the Niners ill-timed trade of Tim Rattay to Tampa Bay (where he’ll probably be starting by week 11 or 12), thrust Pickett into an impossible situation, playing quarterback for a team that would be considered possibly the worst in the league if it weren’t for the fact that Houston is so damned terrible. But what am I supposed to do? Should I ignore the fact that Pickett is 13 of 22 for 112 yards, no TDs and an interception since replacing Dorsey near the end of San Fran’s shocking win over Tampa Bay two weeks ago? Should I pretend his passer rating isn’t an abysmal 53.6? And should I act like he’s not going into Chicago to face one of the best defenses in the league, a unit tied for second in interceptions with 13 on the season? You know, I don’t think that’s picking on Cody. I think it’s just stating the facts. And the facts tell me that Cody is in for big trouble in the Windy City. Given that the Bears defense is bound to score at least once, I can’t see how Chicago fails to win this one by two touchdowns.

Denver (-3) at Oakland
This game is big, giant trouble for me. There’s something inside me that says the Raiders are gonna pull off the upset, that maybe Oakland is the team that turns its season around starting this weekend with a big win against a tough and hated division rival. After all, the Raiders do have big, big potential on offense. And they’ve been really close in a few key losses. So there’s no question they could do a lot better in the second half of the season than they did in the first. But I have no way of knowing whether all that stuff telling me to take the upset here is coming from my gut or my heart. And I suspect it’s my heart. And what I know for certain is that the Broncos look Super Bowl bound to me (though it hurts like hell to say it). I don’t think there’s a team in the league that’s got what it’s gonna take to stop Denver from collecting a Lombardi Trophy this season. I also know that Denver coach Mike Shannahan hates Al Davis and the Raiders with all his heart, and almost always finds a way to motivate his guys to beat Oakland, even in seasons when Denver doesn’t look like probably league champs. So my head tells me Denver’s a three-point favorite for a reason. Here’s how I’m gonna reconcile it, I think. I’m taking the Broncos to win it straight up, and hoping I’m wrong. And I’m putting some cash in the Raiders to keep it to within three and hoping they do better than that. Seems reasonable, right? No? Completely ridiculous? Well, fuck it. I’m doing it anyhow.

NY Jets (+8.5) at Carolina
The team I expect Denver to beat in the Super Bowl? Carolina. The team I expect the Jets to beat at any point this season? None. Certainly not the Panthers. Brooks Bollinger struggles against the Carolina D, while the Jets D works hard to keep it close through three quarters, then falls apart from exhaustion, as New York loses by nine.

Green Bay (+9) at Atlanta
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Green Bay, the Pack is forced to travel to Atlanta to take on the league’s top rushing offense. I expect this game to go very quickly as Atlanta runs on down after down after down (and Mike Vick completes what few passes he does have to throw), while the Green Bay offense goes three and out every time it gets the ball. I hate taking nine-point favorites to cover, but I just don’t see where I have a choice.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Seattle
Yeah, it’s hard to pull off the season sweep. And yeah, the Rams are playing much better ball under Joe Vitt than they were under Mike Martz. And yeah, I still sort of expect Seattle to collapse at some point. But I just don’t see the Rams pulling off the upset here. I just don’t. I do think they’ll keep it closer than six and a half, though. So there’s that.

Washington (-1) at Tampa Bay
You know who really sucks? Chris Simms. The Bucs’ current starting quarterback is 52 for 86 for 592 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions (that’s twice as many INTs as TDs, in case you don’t feel like doing the math yourself) and a passer rating of 69.5. And so, OK, that means Simms doesn’t suck as much as, say, Joey Harrington, but that’s a bit like saying a guy hits better than Mario Mendoza (and maybe not even that). Plus, you know, give him time. I don’t know whether Jon Gruden has quite figured that out yet, but I’m thinking he’d better figure it out soon or he’s gonna have the opportunity to start figuring out what to do about it over the long term (hint: it ain’t hope Brian Griese gets and stays healthy) come the first week in January. As for this week, I’m guessing the Redskins’ pass rushers are gonna have a field day with Simms. And while the Buccaneers certainly can play defense themselves, it’s hard to imagine them faring as well against Mark Brunell, who’s playing the best football of his career, as the Redskins will against Simms (who, in fairness, is probably playing the best football of his career, too). I’m taking the Skins and giving the point.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Pittsburgh
Romeo Crennel knows how to scheme against the Pittsburgh offense. That’s a given. And if he had the personnel to carry out his schemes, I’d be sorely tempted to pick the upset here. But Crennel, who’s in his first year as head coach, hasn’t had a chance to build his defense yet. And Pittsburgh, while vulnerable (especially with Charlie Batch under center and two out of three running backs ailing), should be able to get just enough done to win this game, if only by three points or so.

Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia
Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens. Oh, wait, you mean there’s a game? The Eagles are playing an actual game? OK, then, let’s maybe talk about that a bit. It looks as close to me as it does to the oddsmakers (who have Philly giving the default three) so let’s break it down. Dallas, like every other team in the league, runs the ball better than Philadelphia. Or at least they run the ball more often. Both teams get about three and a half yards per carry on the ground, but Dallas runs a good two and a half times as often as Philly, netting 122.4 yards per game to Philadelphia’s 58.6. The Cowboys also stop the run better than the Eagles. Or, again, they’re better at run defense by certain standards. The Eagles have allowed 118 yards per game on the ground as opposed to the Cowboys’ 89, but both teams have been giving up about four yards per carry. Philly’s offense comes out ahead in the air if you look at yards per game (295 vs. 235) but not if you go by yards per attempt (where Dallas gets 8.24 to Philadelphia’s 7.32 — and even if you break it down to yards per completion, Dallas comes out looking slightly better, with 12 to Philly’s 11.5), and to my mind that’s the measure that really matters since Philly does nothing but throw while Dallas has a balanced offensive attack. The Dallas pass defense, on the other hand, comes out way ahead in the mix, allowing just 193.5 yards per game (6.64 per attempt; 11 per completion) to Philadelphia’s 230 (7.47; 11.6). So the Cowboys’ slightly better record would appear to be the result of the fact that they do pretty much everything slightly better than the Eagles. Of course, the game is still taking place in the Eagles’ stadium, and there is an advantage to that. But my guess is that advantage has been mostly wiped away by the whole T.O. dustup. So me, I’m taking the Boys to win it outright.

Here’s what makes this week dangerous in terms of straight-ahead picking: Ten road teams are going into the weekend as favorites. That’s 10 out of 14. Now, consider that in relation to the fact that home teams are 76-40 so far this season. That is, home teams win nearly two thirds of the time. So looking at things from a purely statistical point of view, in a week when there are 14 games, you can expect at least nine home teams to pull off victories. So, assuming all four of the home favorites come out ahead (hardly a given considering that those home favorites include the Buccaneers, who are giving a point to the Panthers — and whom the oddsmakers had rated underdogs earlier in the week — and the Browns, who are giving the home-team default three points to Tennessee), that means we should see at least five upsets. At least five. And the thing is, when you get five upsets in a single week in the NFL, you usually get more. (That last part’s not stats speaking, mind you. It’s spooky upset mojo shit, which you should certainly ignore. Forget you even read it, actually.)

Sure, none of this is the kind of thing you want to base picks on. But neither can you feel too good about going with teams that are giving a point and a half or two points while playing in someone else’s stadium, especially when those teams are the Lions, with Joey Harrington back under center, facing the Vikings, now featuring Brad Johnson under center, or even the Bears traveling to no man’s land to face the Saints.

So what do you do? Do you try to ID upsets and risk getting killed? (Pick five upsets, get all of them wrong, and watch upsets happen in five other places, and you’re looking at a 4-10 week.) Do you go with the favorites and just figure that gives you as good a shot at 9-5 as it does at 5-9 and the most likely result is 7-7, which, if everyone else is getting socked trying to tag upsets, amounts to not getting hurt too bad? I don’t know. I do know what I’m doing. I’m picking the teams I think are likely to win and hoping for the best, because as far as I can tell, that’s all you can ever do.

Atlanta (-2.5) at Miami
Look, here’s the situation: the Dolphins are absolutely gonna win this game. I know this because the Dolphins consistently do the exact opposite of what I expect them to do, and this week I expect them to lose. Here’s how I see it: Both defenses stop the run OK, but Atlanta’s offense runs the ball a good bit better than Miami’s (like 80 yards a game better). And while Miami’s offense has had more success in the air (70 yards a game), that’s largely had to do with the fact that Atlanta almost never throws (the two teams are virtually even in yards per passing attempt: Atlanta gets 6.06, Miami 6.02). Atlanta’s D does give up half a yard more per passing attempt than Miami’s, but that only adds up to 27 yards a game, so there’s no major difference to be found in that area. So, as I said, all trends (except for home field advantage) point to an Atlanta win, which is what I’m picking straight ahead. But since that means Miami’s gonna win the game, I’m taking the Fins with the points.

Carolina (+1) at Tampa Bay
The opening line on this game had Carolina going into Tampa favored by a point and a half. One can only guess the change had more to do with evening out the money than anything else. That is, I’m thinking the early bets must have been coming in heavy on the Bucs’ side. I wonder if the two-and-a-half-point shift in the other direction has made much of a difference. I know I continue to like Tampa, mainly because they’re at home and because they match up better in the running game. While both teams stop the run very well (Tampa has the best run D in the league; Carolina the second best), Carolina will have more to stop than will Tampa. The Bucs have been gaining a yard more per carry than the Panthers. And it’s a big yard. Tampa’s 4.1 per carry is enough for them to gain first downs on the ground. Carolina’s 3.1 falls short of that. That means Carolina’s gonna need its league-leading receiver, Steve Smith, to shoulder a good bit of the load. It’s something he’s clearly capable of doing, but he’ll be trying to do it against the third-best passing D in the league, in their stadium, and that’s not an easy task. Ultimately, I think given Tampa QB Chris Simms’ difficulties since taking over for Brian Griese, the teams are pretty evenly matched here. But in that situation, the only smart move is to go with the home team. I’ll go ahead and give the point, too. Why not?

Chicago (-2) vs. New Orleans (at Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge)
I’m sure the folks in Baton Rouge are simply heartbroken about Saints owner Tom Benson’s vow never again to step foot in their fine city (or whatever it is Benson’s promising not to do). Benson, who’s preparing to Texas two-step his team all the way to Los Angeles (with a one-season stopoff in San Antonio), wasn’t too happy about having to hear from the fans who have supported his team for years and are upset about its pending departure while he was in Baton Rouge for last week’s loss to Miami. And can you blame him? I mean, who wants to be told he’s a carpetbagger by a bunch of ingrate hurricane victims? Especially if that’s exactly what he is. Of course, this has all of nothing to do with the game. It’s just more interesting than the game is all. Because when you look at the game, all you see is a homeless 2-6 Saints team that can’t run (anymore), can’t pass, can’t stop the run and can’t stop the pass taking on a Bears team that’s leading its division at 4-3 despite the fact that it can’t do much of anything on offense, because its defense doesn’t allow anyone to do much of anything against it. And when you look at that, even when you’re looking for places where upsets might happen, all you can possibly see is the Bears winning by something like double the spread.

Cincinnati (-3) at Baltimore
You know what’s weird? If it hadn’t been for the fact that they damned near beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh on Monday night, I probably wouldn’t even be considering taking Baltimore in this game. After all, while the Bengals have made it clear that they can’t beat good teams, the Ravens have been anything but good so far this season — until Monday, when they matched up extraordinarily well against Pittsburgh. On the other hand, the very fact that the Ravens are coming off a hard-fought Monday nighter and simply have to be exhausted, both physically and emotionally, makes me wonder whether they can possibly find it in them to beat what is clearly a better team. But you know what? Here’s what I’m thinking: Cincinnati keeps finding ways to lose to teams with good defenses (their victory over Chicago early in the season notwithstanding). And Baltimore’s D is arguably better than either Pittsburgh’s or Jacksonville’s (those are the teams that have beaten Cincinnati). Certainly, they give up fewer points per game than either of those teams. Plus, consider that Baltimore’s pass defense is the second best in the league and the strength of Cinci’s offense is its passing game. (And while the Bengals run the ball pretty well, the Ravens actually do a pretty good job of stopping the run.) Add to that the fact that the Bengals can’t stop the run worth a damn, while the Ravens running game appeared to be on the verge of coming to life Monday night, and I think you have the makings of an upset. So, me, I’m gonna go ahead and take Baltimore straight up. I’d certainly do it with the points if I were you.

Detroit (-1.5) at Minnesota
“So, um, hey, Joey, we know it’s only been two weeks since we essentially told you we’d given up on you (because of how you suck) and handed your job to a 35-year-old guy who, by his own approximation, was only 70 percent recovered from a broken leg, but, um, we were sort of wondering, um, if maybe, um, well, that is, if, um, maybe you might be able to go in an try to win a game for us on Sunday. Um, ’cause the thing is, uh, well, Jeff’s hurt again and he’s not gonna be able to start this game (if he were able, we wouldn’t be talking). And we were thinking that, you know, since it’s just Minnesota and all, and, well, you know, the Vikings defense is pretty awful and everything. And they’ve got their backup quarterback starting (so, OK, yeah, he does have a ring, but still). Maybe it wouldn’t be so bad for you. This time. Maybe. So what do you think? Wanna give it a go?” Offensive incompetence abounds and the Vikings win this one with a field goal late. (Oh, and bet the under.)

Houston (+11) at Jacksonville
I’m not sure what I could possibly tell you about this game. Houston got its one win for the season last week, beating Cleveland at home. So there’s no point picking them to pull off an upset, because they’re done winning. In terms of the spread? Look, this is all I can do: Jacksonville both puts up and gives up an average of 18 points a game. Houston, meanwhile, scores an average of 13 while allowing 28. The median of 13 and 18 is 15.5. The median of 18 and 28 is 23. My math puts the difference at 7.5. The oddsmakers’ formula says home field is worth three. That comes to 10.5, which remains less than 11. So I’m taking the Texans to cover. Or at least that’s what I’m doing in theory and on paper (or whatever the hell this is). In reality, I’m not putting a dime on this game, because there’s no winning and because this matchup wouldn’t be interesting to me if I had a million dollars riding on it.

Oakland (+4.5) at Kansas City
I can’t begin to express to you how badly I want to pick an upset here. I’d love to believe, as a lot of Raiders fans seem to, that Oakland’s offense has really started to click and the team’s begun an impossible run for an AFC wild card slot. And, you know, the Chiefs are pretty damned banged up. Plus, they weren’t all that good to begin with. But that’s neither here nor there. Let’s be realistic. Neither of these teams is making the playoffs. Neither of them. And while one might be tempted to think KC’s marginal superiority on offense is offset by the fact that Oakland is slightly less awful on D, it’s simply impossible to see things playing out in any way but a Kansas City win at Arrowhead. I will take the Raiders to keep it closer than four and half, though. And I’ll be absolutely delighted if I turn out to be wrong about the straight ahead result. So there’s that.

San Diego (-5) at NY Jets
I don’t see this as an easy win for San Diego. Sure, the Jets stink on offense, but New York’s defense continues to play well (at least until the middle of the third quarter when, having spent 30-plus minutes on the field, defensive players start to wear out). And as I’ve noted here recently, it looks to me like the Chargers’ blocking schemes have begun to show the signs of the post-Hudson Houck entropy we all knew would set in eventually. So I kind of expect the Jets to keep the Chargers from running away with things early on. In fact, I think they’ll be able to keep LaDainian Tomlinson out of the end zone for much of the first half, and to get to Drew Brees two or three times during the game. It won’t be enough, of course. It’s beyond hard to overcome the kind of lack of offense New York’s dealing with, and the Jets’ shortcomings on that side of the ball will eventually catch up with them. Still, even though I’m taking San Diego to both win and cover, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Jets manage to keep the Chargers’ margin of victory to a field goal.

Tennessee (+3) at Cleveland
You know when you’re in deep shit offensively? When it gets to be week nine and your running backs have spent more time in the courtroom than the end zone. Of course, Cleveland’s committee of drunks and potheads (OK, and one guy who actually seems to be trying hard at times, but who’s just never lived up to his potential) this season has spent more time pretty much everywhere than they have in the end zone, a location they’ve yet to visit even once. That’s gotta change but soon if people are going to be expected to continue to opine that the Browns are headed in the right direction. Probably not this week, though. Not when the Browns face a Titans squad that’s allowed only three rushing touchdowns all season. The good news for the Browns, and for fantasy owners who have Antonio Bryant or Braylon Edwards on their teams, is that the Tennessee D has operated with a complete open-door policy for wide receivers, having allowed a league-high 17 passing touchdowns so far this season. I think Cleveland should be able to beat the Titans in the air and win this one by about three.

NY Giants (-10) at San Francisco
Yes, sir, San Francisco sure did pull off the upset victory over Tampa Bay last Sunday. Pulled off the big win even though quarterbacks Ken Dorsey and Cody Pickett combined for 50 yards on eight completions (18 attempts). That’s pretty remarkable. And pretty unrepeatable. I’m looking for the Giants to finally pull off a road win this week, and to do it by four points more than the spread.

Seattle (-4.5) at Arizona
All around the cobbler’s bench, the monkey chased the weasel. The monkey thought ’twas all in jest … pop! Hey, look. It’s that jackass in the box Kurt Warner back under center for the Cardinals. Apparently Dennis Green likes Warner, who’s 0-3 as a starter, better than Josh McCown, who’s 2-2. That makes sense. (I predicted this move last week, as you probably don’t remember. McCown had a rough outing against the Cowboys, largely because he got no support from the running game, prompting Green, who’s determined that no one ever get comfortable in the starting QB spot for his team, to give him the hook.) Maybe Green’s looking to recapture the magic of the 37-12 beating his team took from the Seahawks the last time Warner started a game. My guess is that’s about what Green and the Cardinals are gonna get regardless of what anybody may want.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Green Bay
The way I see it, this game is all about Charlie Batch, who’ll be starting under center for Pittsburgh in place of the recently ‘scoped Ben Roethlisberger. If Charlie can keep his head on straight, complete eight or nine of the dozen passes he’ll be asked to throw (as long as the Steelers get some mileage out of the run), and stop himself from trying to force things and making costly mistakes (the way Packers quarterback Brett Favre did last week in Cincinnati), the Steelers should have no trouble pulling off a win over an increasingly banged up Packers squad. If, on the other hand, Charlie comes out looking to be the hero and attempts to make things happen in the wrong situations, he’ll single-handedly give Green Bay the tools it needs to pull off the upset. (Al Harris remains one of the best cornerbacks in the game, and he will put six points on the board if Charlie gives him the opportunity.) I’m expecting Charlie to take it all on himself and slip up, so I’m taking the Pack to win it outright. If you think Charlie’s a better decision maker than that, by all means go the other way.

Philadelphia (-1) at Washington
So it looks like Terrell Owens, who was listed as doubtful with an ankle sprain early in the week, will play after all. The questions now are: a) Will a hurt Owens will be enough to get the Eagles past a collision with the league’s best pass defense? b.) Will a hurt Donovan McNabb be able to deliver the ball to T.O. to begin with (or even play)? And c.) Has T.O.’s inability to shut his stupid trap finally driven enough of a wedge between him and McNabb that Donovan will be looking everywhere but Owens’ direction? I don’t know the answer to any of those questions (except that I think McNabb’s enough of a pro to look for the open man no matter how much of an asshole that man may be), but I know what I suspect. It’s this: when you’re facing the Redskins in their stadium, T.O. or no T.O., you either find a way to run the ball (and the Skins do give up 130-plus yards per game on the ground), or you lose. Philly hasn’t done much on the ground this season. And I’m sort of expecting stubborn Andy Reid to try to make things work in the air and to go down in flames. I’m taking the Redskins and the point.

Indianapolis (-3) at New England
Fuck it. I’m taking the Patriots to win this game. It’s not because the Pats have a way of getting into Peyton Manning’s head. It’s not because the Colts have beaten exactly one good team so far this season (they’ve played the teams they’ve played, and they’ve won). And it’s certainly not because Tedy Bruschi is back on the field for the Pats (though I do think that’s an amazing thing, and a damned good one for the Patriots). It’s because I feel it going that way. It seems as if the Colts are looking at this game as the most important of their season, while the Pats are looking at this game as just another must-win contest. I like the Patriots’ point of view better. I think it’s a champion’s point of view. And I think that, combined with home-field advantage, makes all the difference here. I like the Pats to pull out another three-point victory at the end of what I expect to be a mostly offensive struggle.