This Football Blog

Yeah, I was right on about the Raiders keeping it close on Thursday night because the Chargers are so inept, wasn’t I? And yet here you are looking for more bad advice. Have you ever stopped and asked yourself what’s wrong with you? Seriously. Have you? Because you should. Here’s what not to expect in the other 15 games this week.

Jacksonville (+7) at Chicago
Is there a reason I should care, after what I had to endure from these teams on Sunday and Monday nights, about what happens in this game or how it turns out? Neither of these teams matters. And I can’t bear to think of either of them for one second more. So I’m taking the home team to win it by exactly the seven points they’re giving. Because that’s the easiest thing to do and the quickest way out of this.

Minnesota (-9.5) at Detroit
I think the Lions’ best hope of winning a game this season sailed out the window of the U.S. District Courthouse in St. Paul Friday afternoon. Detroit isn’t good enough to beat Minnesota, but a Vikings team in disarray might well have given this one away. Now, not so much. Minnesota by 17.

Houston (+6) at Green Bay
Good news, Texans fans. Starting this week, Matt Schaub will be the guy throwing all the picks again. Doesn’t that sound like fun? Packers by seven.

Cincinnati (+14) at Indianapolis
You know, I’ve got a weird feeling the Bengals are gonna pull off a huge upset this week. I mean, the Colts have had some trouble winning at home this season, and … OK, I’m just kidding. Indy by three TDs, minimum.

Atlanta (+3.5) at New Orleans
Never mind the suspension case hoopla; it doesn’t matter whether the Saints have all their players on the field. Because here’s the deal: Atlanta is fighting to keep its playoff hopes alive (as long as the Falcons keep winning, they’re in as the six seed; a loss and they’ll need Dallas to drop one) while New Orleans is straight up cooked. Add that the Saints are slightly worse at holding on to the ball (they’ve got a giveaway/takeaway differential of -5 as compared to the Falcons’ -1) and that it’s highly unlikely the Saints D will be able to contain the Falcons’ ground game and you’re looking at a three-point victory for the visitors.

Philadelphia (+7) at NY Giants
In which the Giants wrap up the NFC East and get most of the way to a first-round playoff bye (which they’ll probably get by way of a Dallas loss to Pittsburgh). New Jersey still has a long road ahead of it. It ain’t easy to repeat in the NFL. But it ain’t hard right now to beat the bejesus out of Philadelphia. Giants by lucky 13.

Cleveland (+14) at Tennessee
You know how sometimes it can be hard to get your energy up for something that’s way too easy and you end up actually struggling a bit to complete the task? That’s the only reason I’d hesitate to give two touchdowns here. The Titans are winning (and clinching the AFC South and moving to within one win of clinching a first-round bye) and they should do it by something on the order of 28 points. But it could be more like 10. I’m just not sure. I’ll go with the Titans to win and cover for the purposes of the blog, but I’m not putting money on that.

Miami (+1) vs. Buffalo (Rogers Centre, Toronto)
Ah, yes, American football in a city where they can’t even spell the word center correctly. Get used to it. It’s hard to believe, but the Dolphins are simply the better team here. (Please don’t mistake this for me jumping on the Miami bandwagon. I don’t think the team’s that good. It’s just that the Fins are better than the Bills is all.) The Dolphins do virtually everything better than the Bills, but they’re particularly superior in bringing pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That’s part of the reason Miami comes in a with a giveaway/takeaway differential of +10 (tied with the Giants for second best in the league) while Buffalo comes in with a -5. I don’t know if turnovers will make the difference in this game, but I suspect they’ll tell a good part of the story. Miami by a touchdown.

Kansas City (+9.5) at Denver
Do you realize that there are still people out there speculating that the AFC West title could come down to the week 17 matchup between Denver (currently 7-5) and San Diego (currently 5-8)? If you meet one of these people, walk away slowly. These are crazy, potentially dangerous people. The Chiefs may be improving (or they might not be) but the Broncos still win this game by seven.

New England (-4.5) at Seattle
So it’s a battle every week for the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive. What else is new? It’s that kind of season. The hopes live on for another week. New England by 10.

NY Jets (-3.5) at San Francisco
You know what team can’t hold on to the damned ball? The 49ers. They’ve turned the ball over a league-high 28 times: 14 picks and 14 lost fumbles (which I guess at least shows a little balance). You can’t win NFL games when you play like that. Jets by nine.

St. Louis (+13.5) at Arizona
Once again, a solidly average team is headed for an NFC West title. What a shock. Arizona wraps up the division (at 8-5) with a win over the horrible, horrible Rams. The difference is 10 points.

Dallas (+3) at Pittsburgh
A loss here puts Dallas in a very difficult position with regard to the playoffs. Pity, isn’t it? Because Dallas’ chances of winning this game are anything but good. Yeah, the Cowboys’ sack-happy pass rush ought to be able to put Ben Roethlisberger on his back a good bit, but, hell, everybody does that and it hasn’t lost the Steelers many games. There’s a reason for that: Pittsburgh doesn’t need much out of Big Ben. They win with D. And I don’t see any reason to believe they won’t do just that again this week. Pittsburgh 20-17.

Washington (+5.5) at Baltimore
When your deal is that you’re kinda hoping you’re a running back who’s seriously banged up and lucky if he can make it through part of practice once a week is gonna tough it out enough to save your season, you’re pretty much finished. Baltimore by four.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Carolina
Tampa could effectively wrap up the NFC South title with a win in this game. The Bucs destroyed the Panthers with a strong defensive effort in Raymond James Stadium back in week six, so a second win would give them a two-game lead in the division with three weeks to play. The question is can they do it? And, you know, much as my gut tells me they can, my head just isn’t so sure. These teams are fairly evenly matched. Both are playing better football than they were last time they met. And while I think the Bucs are a marginally better team, the Panthers not only are at home but arguably need the win more. So all I can say with relative certainty is that this should be a fun game to watch. As for which team comes out ahead, I’m gonna go with my gut this time, but I’m not doing it with anything approaching confidence. Tampa by three.

I’m not gonna be near a computer much for the rest of the day and I’m not finishing my week fourteen picks until I know a few things (like whether Minnesota’s gonna be able to field a defense), so here’s what little I’ve got to say about this ridiculous Thursday night game. I’ll follow up with the rest of my picks later.

Oakland (+9.5) at San Diego
The Chargers may be a disappointment (to some, that is; their ineptitude in year two under Norv Turner has neither surprised nor disappointed me), but the Raiders are once again one of the worst teams in the NFL. That’s no surprise either. And at this point the Raiders are only disappointing in that it’s hard to believe the league tolerates such poor organizational management in an era in which it’s attempting to promote the concept of competitive balance. (Then again, the Detroit Lions have been taking bad management to new levels for decades.) I won’t be enduring this game in any bigger way than I endured Monday night’s snoozer. It’ll be on, yes, but I’ll be … let’s just say multitasking. Chargers win 17-9.

I don’t feel good about my picks this week. I know I say that pretty much every week. But this week I really, really, really mean it. I mean, think about it. I’m picking way early. With the exception of maybe five or six, this week’s games would be very tough to figure even if I had a few more days. And, honestly, there are more than a couple of games this week that I can’t begin to get excited about. So … you know, I warned you. Here’s what not to expect. Happy Thanksgiving.

Tennessee (-11) at Detroit
I’ve got these two guiding philosophies: One says pick the Titans every week and I’ll be right way more often than wrong. The other says pick against the Lions every week and I’ll be right way more often than wrong (and maybe I’ll be right every week). So you figure out what I’m gonna do here. Tennessee by 21.

Seattle (+13) at Dallas
One more cupcake game for the Cowboys before they have to start playing actual professional football teams (at least in weeks fourteen through sixteen; we’ll see what happens with their week seventeen opponent, the Eagles). I’d predict that Cowboys fans will be talking Super Bowl by the time this game ends, but Cowboys fans are always talking Super Bowl, so what’s the difference? Dallas by 14.

Arizona (+3) at Philadelphia
Three important facts about the Eagles, none of which have anything to do their starting quarterback: One) They’re done. Their season is over. They can start getting ready for the draft (or thinking about a coaching change, or whatever). Two) They’re increasingly banged up. Three) They probably couldn’t keep up with Arizona even if they were healthy and in the hunt. Cardinals by four.

San Francisco (+7) at Buffalo
Impressive as putting up 54 points may be, thumping Kansas City (and allowing 31 points to the Chiefs in the process) does not constitute a turnaround. Neither does following that performance up with a thrashing of the 49ers. But if you’re a Bills fan, I’m sure it’ll at least be fun to watch. Buffalo by 10.

Baltimore (-7) at Cincinnati
The Bengals’ big talk about how they can probably tie just about any team in the league (I’m making this up; they never said that) died an early death at the hands of a semi-competent opponent. Here comes more of the same. Baltimore wins by the same margin as Pittsburgh: 17. Because why not?

Indianapolis (-4.5) at Cleveland
Indy’s schedule for the three weeks after this includes a visit to Cincinnati, a home game against Detroit and a Thursday nighter in Jacksonville. That’s the Colts at 11-4 heading into their closer with Titans. Nice schedule if you can get it. Colts by a touchdown.

Carolina (+3) at Green Bay
I’m not sure which was the more embarrassing week twelve meltdown, Carolina’s or Green Bay, but having watched both unfold, I can say that Green Bay’s felt more disastrous. I don’t know how you recover from a thing like that. Carolina by a point.

Denver (+7.5) at NY Jets
Do you know why the Jets beat the Titans last week? It’s not because the Jets are a better team than the Titans. They’re not. (Despite Cris Collinsworth’s ridiculous pronouncement that New Jersey is the best team in the AFC.) The Jets won that game because they Titans had bought into their own press. Going in 10-0, the Titans had begun to feel like they had a chance to run the table. They spent the week asking why no one in the press was talking about their “pursuit of perfection.” And it bit them on the ass, the way believing the hype about your team so often does. It’ll be interesting to see if New Jersey falls victim to the same syndrome this weekend. It wouldn’t surprise me, that’s for certain. Not only are the Jets not as good as their recent press would have you believe, but they have a pass defense that is beyond vulnerable. That’s not a good quality when you’re facing one of the better pass offenses in the league. Denver throws for nearly 100 more yards per game than Tennessee (and 40 more than New England, a team that managed 400-plus passing yards in a narrow loss to New Jersey two weeks ago). The Broncos also have nearly twice as many passing TDs on the season as the Titans, and almost half again as many as the Patriots. If the Jets are focused, the Broncos will keep this one closer than seven and a half. If the Jets aren’t focused, the Broncos will win it outright. It’s really too early in the week for me to know which it’ll be, but based on what I’ve seen so far this week, I’m thinking Denver takes this one straight up.

Miami (-8) at St. Louis
I picked up Davone Bess for my fantasy team this week after it started to look like Greg Camarillo might be lost for the year (which he is). I figure if Plaxico Burress can’t go again, I’ll start Bess this week since the Fins are up against a Rams team with an absolutely miserable pass defense. So why am I telling you about my fantasy team? Because otherwise, I’d have to find something to say about this game, which would mean I’d have to think about this game. And I’m just not up for that. Dolphins by 10.

New Orleans (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
Boy, that sure was a show the New Orleans offense put on Monday night, wasn’t it? Think the Saints can take that show on the road? Hmm. Well, what if Reggie Bush is back? I mean, things worked out OK for the Saints at home back in week one and Reggie was a big factor there. But, yeah, I hear you. I don’t think so either. Bucs by four.

NY Giants (-3) at Washington
The Giants may be all but assured of the NFC one seed (because, let’s be honest, barring a complete collapse no one’s catching them), but that doesn’t mean they’re gonna have an easy run through the last five weeks of the regular season. This game begins a series of three consecutive matches with division opponents. And while there’s no reason to believe the Giants won’t have wrapped up the NFC East and at the very least a first-round bye before Carolina rolls into the Meadowlands in week sixteen, nothing guarantees they’re gonna have fun getting there. The Native Americans are fighting for their playoff lives here. A loss would leave them with a tough, uphill battle to capture a wild card spot. I suspect they’ll get one either way (partially because I think Dallas is destined to fold), but they certainly aren’t likely to take my word for it. Washington will be playing to maintain control of its own destiny and that should be enough to make this a game. I think New Jersey comes out on top, but only by a point.

Atlanta (+5) at San Diego
The Falcons aren’t as good as Carolina made them look last weekend, but they’re still a better team than the Chargers, who are coming off of a major breakdown and have to be feeling it physically and emotionally. I like the road team to pull off an upset here. Falcons control the ball and the clock and come out ahead by three.

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at New England
This matchup, to my mind, encapsulates what’s going on in the AFC this season. Pittsburgh and New England have been elite teams in the conference and the league throughout most of the decade, but both come into this game limping, punch-drunk and looking like shadows of the teams we’re used to seeing. Seems to me that there are only so many 17-, 18- and 19-game seasons teams can take before they start to wear down, particularly when they play in a conference that includes most of the best teams in the league. So the AFC has fallen apart this season. Still, these are two tough teams that are doing everything they can to fight their way into January. The outcome of this game has the potential to play a major part in whether they make it — and how. And the key question has to do with whether the surging New England offense is good enough to overcome the steadfast Pittsburgh D. One imagines that with Dom Capers on hand as part of New England’s coaching staff Matt Cassel will go into the game with a better idea than most young quarterbacks of how to counter the Steelers’ zone blitzes. But knowing how to do something and actually executing on the field are two different things. If Cassel can pull it off, the Patriots should be able to win. There’s little threat of the Steelers putting up more than 17 points, and if Cassel and the Patriots offense can execute fairly consistently, they should be able to hit 20. This could be a great game. It could be a fairly sad game (for either team, or both). Either way, it’s likely a season-defining game. I’m looking for a New England victory and I’m ready to give the point and a half, but I won’t be surprised at any outcome other than a blowout.

Kansas City (+3) at Oakland
Yeah, this is an actual professional football game. Look as hard as you like and you won’t see a professional offense or a professional defense on the field. But everyone’s getting paid to show up and play, so professional football it is. And I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait. The Raiders are at home, so I suppose I’ll take them straight up. I’ll go with the Chiefs to cover. Call it a hedge if you like. It’s really more of a shrug.

Chicago (+3.5) at Minnesota
It’s hard to know whether the AFC West or the NFC North is the least relevant division in football. At least the NFC North contenders both have winning records. So there’s that. But, look, I have no idea which team to pick here. Neither offense can throw the ball. And neither defense will allow opponents to run. Minnesota is at home. And with a 2-2 division record going in (the Bears are at 3-1), the Vikings can scarce afford a loss. So I guess I’ll go with Minnesota to win. By a field goal. I guess.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Houston
Oh, come on. On Monday night? Because the schedule makers had some reason to anticipate that both of these teams would be relevant this late in the season? Houston by a point. And now I’m done.

Murder. That’s what this week is murder. In fact, don’t even bother reading my picks. I’m just winging it. I mean, even more than usual.

Cincinnati (+11) at Pittsburgh
OK, Cleveland-Buffalo on a Monday night, I get. And not just because it turned out to be a fun game to watch. The fact of the matter is that back when the 2008 schedule was being put together it looked like the two teams in that game were headed for exciting seasons. It could have been more than a fun game; it could have been meaningful. But this mess? Seriously, did anyone at any point not know Cincinnati was gonna be awful this season? Or, let me put it this way: Was there enough evidence that the Bengals might possibly be in contention this late in the season to put this game into a night that you’re trying to use to build your house network? Of course not. So what you end up with is a game that even those of us who get the NFL Network won’t be paying much attention to (I rarely miss a play of any half decent game, but even I’ll be back and forth between this and Celtics-Pistons, which I’m guessing is gonna get more and more of my attention as the evening wears on). But who knows? Maybe we’re headed for yet another freaky finish (you know, like this one or this one — or the one from Monday night). I’m kinda thinking not, though. In fact, I’m kinda thinking the Steelers actually cover this time around. Pittsburgh by 14. (I also like the Celtics, but I’m sure not giving seven in that game. Four maybe. And in the late game I’m looking for the Suns to pull off the upset at home.)

Carolina (+1) at Atlanta
If you go by the “team that needs it more” theory, Atlanta owns this game. Not only are the Falcons are coming off a tough loss in a game they should have won (look at the stats on that game; if you didn’t know the score, you’d guess Atlanta had beaten Denver handily), but a loss here will effectively end their hopes of contending in the NFC South and make even a wild card playoff berth a remote possibility. As I’ve said before, I don’t really buy into that theory, which is too bad, because it would make it a lot easier to get my head around this game. These teams are incredibly evenly matched. The Falcons tend to put up more points, and to run the ball somewhat more effectively (though not by so great a margin as one might expect). The Panthers tend to give up fewer. Both teams have giveaway/takeaway differentials of +3. It’s hard to identify the one factor that’s gonna decide this thing. But if I’m pressed (which I am), I’m gonna guess that Carolina’s ability to bring pressure on the quarterback may prove to be the point on which the game turns. I know Matt Ryan has exceeded all reasonable expectations for any rookie quarterback, but I suspect that if this game comes down to one or two big plays, he’s gonna have nearly as difficult a time making them in the face of Carolina’s pass rush as he did back in week four. That, to me, spells a Carolina victory. I don’t see the Panthers winning by 15 again (probably more like three or four), but I see them winning just the same.

Philadelphia (+1) at Baltimore
Yes, Donovan there are ties in the NFL. But not this week. Just losses (for the Eagles, I mean). And sacks. Lots of them. Ravens by four.

Houston (+3) at Cleveland
Did you know that Cleveland’s giveaway/takeaway differential is +8. Or that Houston’s is -13. I don’t care that the Texans ostensibly do everything else better than the Browns. Nor that Cleveland’s playing on short rest. Nor that Brady Quinn has a boo-boo. If you consistently give your opponent a short field and you consistently fail to finish drives, you lose games. Simple as that. Browns by a field goal (and not a terribly long one this time).

San Francisco (+10.5) at Dallas
In which the Cowboys maintain the illusion that they’re back in the playoff hunt. Dallas by 13.

Tampa Bay (-9) at Detroit
The Lions take yet another step along the path to 0-16. How do these guys manage to keep showing up for work? (Oh, right, it’s the millions and millions of dollars.) Bucs by two touchdowns.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Jacksonville
In some parallel universe, this is a matchup between two exciting, division-leading teams. In this one, it’s just a battle for the right to continue pretending you’ve got a shot at playing in January. Vikings by two.

Buffalo (-3) at Kansas City
Buffalo’s season ended Monday night. Kansas City’s season ended before it began. If the Bills can hold on to the ball, they might be able to salvage a tiny shred of their dignity here. But they haven’t held onto it much yet. And the Chiefs are very good at taking the ball away. So unless Buffalo’s special teams score twice, I’m expecting the Bills losing streak to extend to five games. Chiefs by one.

New England (+1.5) at Miami
I don’t know. It seems like every week, the football gods find a new way to try to tell the Patriots this just isn’t their season. This week, it’s in the news that list of injured starters now includes Richard Seymour, who’s been missing practice with some kind of toe injury. And every week the Patriots find a way to tell the football gods to go fuck themselves. Last week, though it happened in a fairly painful loss, they did it by shifting their offense into high gear. They’re gonna need more of the same, and a win this time around, if they’re to have any hope of continuing to thwart the will of those cruel, cruel deities. That won’t be easy. The Dolphins are playing better football than anyone expected them to. And, in fact, it may be the will of the gods that this is Miami’s year. We’ll find out this weekend, because the winner of this game likely moves into a tie with the Jets for first place in the AFC East, while the loser probably needs to start preparing for the draft. I’m looking for the Patriots to keep their season alive for another week, but I have to admit the pick has little to do with football (there are football reasons to like the Pats, but there are also football reasons to like the Fins) and a lot to do with me still not quite buying the Dolphins remaining at least somewhat confident in the Patriots’ ability at least to push the limits of fate. It’s not much to go on, is it? Thing is, it’s what I’ve got. New England by three.

Chicago (-9) at St. Louis
I set out briefly to find out the latest on Steven Jackson’s injury situation. And then I realized it doesn’t matter. One way or the other, the Bears are winning and the Rams are covering.

NY Jets (+5.5) at Tennessee
I’ve got a weird feeling the Jets may win this game. Not because I think New Jersey’s good, but because a) there’s that thing with the Patriots and the football gods (see above); b) the Titans have to lose some time; and c) it’s always (usually) right around the time people start talking about a team maybe going undefeated that said team drops one. But I’m not picking a Jets win. To begin with, hunches are for shit. And more to the point, my strategy remains to pick Tennessee every week and figure I’ve got at least a 15-1 chance of being right. Titans by a touchdown.

Oakland (+10) at Denver
Holy crap. It appears San Diego may yet prove bad enough for Denver to capture the booby prize that is the 2008 AFC West title. I’m sure that’s cause for celebration somewhere. Broncos by nine.

NY Giants (-3) at Arizona
On paper, this looks like an exciting matchup between division leading teams. In reality, the Cardinals are so hopelessly outmatched by the juggernaut Giants that it’s hard for me to imagine the game will be competitive much past midway through the third. I expect to see New Jersey run the ball down Arizona’s throats all day long, add a few long passes to the mix and walk away with a virtual lock on a first-round playoff bye and the inside track to the NFC one seed. Giants by two touchdowns.

Washington (-3) at Seattle
Traveling across the country is never easy, but the Native Americans did take week eleven off, so they ought to be fairly well rested. Washington by four.

Indianapolis (+3) at San Diego
This is a weird matchup. Consider this: The Chargers need a win to remain in contention for a division title; the Colts need a win to remain in contention for a wild card spot. The Chargers are out of wild card contention. The Colts are out of division title contention. The Chargers come in 4-6. The Colts come in 6-4. And somehow these are the same teams that took part in an epic AFC divisional playoff battle 10 months ago. I expect to see the improving LaDainian Tomlinson play just well enough to power San Diego to victory. But truth be told, I’ll be happy as long as one of these teams loses. Chargers by three.

Green Bay (+2.5) at New Orleans
Anyone for offense? Don’t bet the outcome. Just bet the over. The Packers win by eight, seven of which come on an interception returned for a touchdown in the final two minutes.

With a few horribly annoying exceptions, the games this week seem pretty easy to pick, which probably means they aren’t. Here’s what I’m sort of almost certain might or might not happen.

NY Jets (+3.5) at New England
Forget all the stuff about tie-breakers within the division. Yes, it matters, but it matters equally to both teams. Both are 6-3 and each knows it’s likely going to need an edge over the other come December 29. And, you know, the fact of the matter is that if one of these squads were 1-8 and the other 8-1 right now, they’d still hate each other. The 1-8 team would be dying to make the 8-1 team look bad; and the 8-1 team would be dying to add to the 1-8 team’s misery. So, yeah, both teams are gonna be playing with great intensity. There’s nothing unusual about that. So what do you focus on when you look at this game? I’m thinking turnovers. Because, really, these teams are pretty evenly matched. Both feature balanced offenses and solid, if unspectacular, defenses. The Jets tend to score more points than the Patriots; the Pats tend to allow fewer than the Jets. New Jersey’s D is better at stopping the run. New England’s is better at stopping the pass. The players know each other inside and out, and so do the coaches. Games like this typically come down to one of three things: Which team needs a win more (as discussed, there’s probably no edge there, though if there is, it goes to the Jets, who lost to the Patriots in New Jersey in week two and would be effectively two games back in the division if they drop this one); which is playing at home (probably not a real factor in this game); and which wins the turnover battle. The difference has to be in that last area. Neither of these teams has had much difficulty with losing fumbles this season; each has coughed the ball up just four times. And neither has had much success forcing fumbles. The Pats have recovered four dropped balls, the Jets have taken away six. Interceptions are another story. Brett Favre has thrown 12 picks this season (add one thrown by Kellen Clemens and you get a team total of 13); Matt Cassel’s only thrown seven. The New England D, meanwhile, has logged eight picks to New Jersey’s seven. And it’s the disparity there that accounts for the fact that the Patriots have a +1 giveaway/takeaway differential while the Jets are at -4. I anticipate three turnovers (by which I mean picks) in this game, and you have to assume the team on the receiving end of the majority of them will end up carrying the day. And since all I have to go by is the supposition that the trends established in weeks one through ten will carry over into week eleven (which I admit is hardly guaranteed), I’m looking for New England to come out on top. Patriots by a field goal.

Denver (+5.5) at Atlanta
Five and a half points? The second best rushing offense in the league faces one of the worst rushing defenses and all the Falcons are giving is five and a half points? For real? Sign me up. Atlanta controls the ball for something like 40 minutes, giving Denver’s passing game no real chance to get going, and wins by 13.

Detroit (+14) at Carolina
Dear Congress, If you’re going to use taxpayer money to bail out the major auto makers, could you at least take the opportunity to force the idiot Ford family to sell the Lions? Pretty please. Jake Delhomme rebounds from a pitiful performance against one of the league’s worst teams to lead the Panthers in a sound thumping of another.

Philadelphia (-9.5) at Cincinnati
OK, it hardly matters this week since it’s almost impossible to lose to the Bengals, but I still have to say it: Andy, for god’s sake, you’ve got a great passing offense; you should maybe try using it next time the game’s on the line. Eagles by 20.

Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay
Aw, hell. I don’t wanna pick this game. Can I please not pick this game? Because the thing is, the Bears should be able to win except for how they can’t stop the pass. And the Packers should be able to win except for how they can’t stop the damned run. I suppose I’m taking the Bears, though I’ll be damned if I can tell you why. Chicago by two.

Houston (+8.5) at Indianapolis
I haven’t bought into the idea that the Colts have got their season back on track, but they’re certainly not losing this game. Indy by a touchdown.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
I’m riding this thing where I pick Tennessee every week figuring I’m gonna be right way more often than wrong all the way until the end of the regular season. (At which point I’m switching to the thing where I pick against any team quarterbacked by Kerry Collins in the playoffs. Though maybe not until the conference championship round.) Plus, the Jags are way too dysfunctional right now to take chances on. Titans by six.

New Orleans (-5) at Kansas City
There are three things that can happen when you throw the ball in this game and two of them are New Orleans scoring and Kansas City scoring. Bet the over. Saints by seven.

Oakland (+10.5) at Miami
The Raiders give up 158 yards a game on the ground. 158 yards a game. And since they changed coaches, Oakland’s offense has averaged seven points per game. Seven. Miami by 14, minimum.

Baltimore (+6.5) at NY Giants
OK, I’m as impressed as the next guy with Joe Flacco (and perhaps more impressed, depending on whom the next guy is). And there’s no questioning the strength of the Ravens defense. In fact, if this game were in Baltimore, I’d probably have to give serious thought to picking the Ravens. But even then I’d look at the fact that the Giants are playing the best football in the league right now, and take into account the gap between New Jersey’s +6 giveaway/takeaway differential and Baltimore’s -2, and I’d end up taking the Giants, though maybe by only point or two. In the Meadowlands, the Giants take it by seven.

Minnesota (+4) at Tampa Bay
A Minnesota loss here coupled with a Green Bay win would bring up a three-way tie in the NFC North. I don’t know what that means, but I’m fairly confident I can count on the Vikings to do their part to make it happen. Bucs by a field goal.

St. Louis (+6) at San Francisco
I’m not even contemplating picking the Rams again until I know Steven Jackson’s healthy. He isn’t. San Francisco by seven

Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle
You know, if Arizona hadn’t just come damned close to falling to San Francisco at home, picking this game would be a breeze, regardless whether Seattle gets some key offensive players back on the field. The Seahawks don’t have it this season, on either side of the ball. They’ve played poorly enough on offense to make the Cardinals middling defense look good, and poorly enough on D to make a big afternoon seem extremely likely for Arizona’s excellent offense. And the fact that one or two sort of, a little bit, kind of healthy starters might manage to swallow a bottle of painkillers and limp their way back onto the field doesn’t strike me as something that’s likely to change all that much. But the Cardinals did struggle to beat the 49ers. More than that, Arizona might actually have lost had it not been for some really awful clock management by the San Francisco coaching staff. So how does one take that into account? I can’t answer that question, which is why I can’t feel particularly good about doing what I have to do here, which is to pick the far superior team (the Cards) to come out ahead by about a touchdown.

San Diego (+4.5) at Pittsburgh
What’s a bigger disappointment: A San Diego team that’s getting four and a half points from a squad that doesn’t have the common sense to rest a badly hurt quarterback, or an AFC West that’s so weak the Chargers will still be solidly in the hunt even after they come out of the week 4-6? OK, the truth is, I’m disappointed by neither of these things. In fact, I’m kind of delighted by them. Except for how they don’t make for very good football. And for how one of them gives the Steelers an easy win. Pittsburgh by three.

Dallas (-2.5) at Washington
It would be helpful to know exactly what’s up with Tony Romo’s pinky and Clinton Portis’s knee. We know the Cowboys can’t beat good teams without Romo. Can they beat good teams without Romo at 100 percent? I guess we’re gonna find out. Unless it works out that the Native Americans can’t beat good teams without Portis (or without Portis at 100 percent), in which case this is a total fucking tossup. I guess I’ve gotta like the home team’s chances with their backup RBs over the visiting team and their semi-healthy QB. Washington by a point.

Cleveland (+4.5) at Buffalo
The Bills are done in the AFC East, but they still have a shot at a wild card berth. That goes away if they don’t dig in and get off the schneid this week. I can’t imagine the Browns failing to help out in that regard. Bills by a field goal.

Turnovers. I’m expecting turnovers to tell the story in week 10. Three of four of these games will be decided by one or more key turnovers. And, yeah, I know that’s frequently the case, so I’m hardly going far out on a limb here. But it’s not like that. It’s like this: I’m saying turnovers will be the story of the week, the thing that leads SportsCenter and Football Night in America. That’s what I’m looking for. Of course, I’m pretty much always wrong. Here’s the rest of what you shouldn’t expect.

Denver (+3) at Cleveland
So let’s say you’ve got an offense that puts up close to 24 points a game. And let’s say you’re facing a team with a defense that’s so-so on it’s best days and an offense that’s set to be led by a guy making his first NFL start. And let’s say you’re somehow still a three-point underdog going into that game. What does that mean? It means your defense really, really, really sucks. Browns by a point.

New Orleans (+1) at Atlanta
The over/under on this game is 50. Bet the over. And bet it big. As for a winner, well, if you think the Saints can hold on to the ball, you might wanna take ’em. If, like me, you’re pretty sure they can’t, go with the Falcons. I like Atlanta to win by three.

Tennessee (-3) at Chicago
The Titans have to lose a game sooner or later and this non-conference road game seems as likely a spot for it as any. But I’m not picking it that way. Not with Chicago’s undecided quarterback situation. Besides, it seems fairly clear to me that if I just keep picking the Titans every week I’m guaranteed to be right way more often than I’m wrong. And I’ll take those odds every time. Tennessee wins 17-9.

Jacksonville (-7) at Detroit
Records notwithstanding, the Raiders have probably displaced the Lions from their long-held position of league’s worst/most dysfunctional team at this point. It remains a fact, however, that if you can’t get back on track in a game against Detroit, you probably can’t get back on track at all. Forget, if only for a week, the questions about team chemistry and all the other distractions; the Jags win this one by 10.

Baltimore (-1) at Houston
Quarterback shmarterback (OK, it’s kind of a big deal, but still), this one boils down to defense (and maybe to turnovers). The Ravens have a D; the Texans don’t. (Also, the Ravens can’t hold on to the ball, but the Texan can’t hold onto the ball even more.) Baltimore by four.

Seattle (+9) at Miami
The Seahawks were hoping to have Matt Hasselbeck back in the starting lineup this week. And apparently he’s healthy enough to play, but he’s missing the game to attend services for his sister-in-law whose head finally exploded late Tuesday night. Tragic. (Though fortunately no one else was harmed since Elisabeth’s head was, in fact, entirely empty.) I still don’t believe in the Dolphins, so I’m only expecting them to win by seven.

Green Bay (+2.5) at Minnesota
Mark my words: This game turns on a Green Bay pick six. Packers by four.

Buffalo (+4) at New England
The Bills, who haven’t beaten the Patriots since the opening game of the 2003 season (“Let me be very clear about this: They hate their coach”), have exactly one player they can usually count on to perform well against New England and he ain’t playing. Pats by a touchdown.

St. Louis (+8) at NY Jets
Steven Jackson’s on-again, off-again thigh injury is on again. That spells doom for a Rams team that need to run in order to win and that was already gonna have trouble moving the ball on the ground against the Jets. New Jersey by 10.

Carolina (-9) at Oakland
Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I’m pretty sure this shaking up the roster business is pretty much guaranteed to solve all of Oakland’s problems. Or, you know, the few problems that are still lingering after the Raiders took care of most of their issues last month by firing yet another coach. Panthers by 14? 21? 28? (I don’t know how many points Carolina’s gonna win by, but I’m pretty sure it’ll be more than nine.)

Indianapolis (+3) at Pittsburgh
I don’t see Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation as a major determining factor in this game. Because I’ve just seen nothing that would lead me to believe that the Colts offense can hope to be effective against the Steelers D. Pittsburgh by six.

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego
In which the Chargers officially begin backing into an AFC West championship. Wahoo! San Diego by some number of points that either will or will not exceed 15. (I’ll go with will since San Diego’s at home and I’m not actually putting money on the line. You wanna bet this mess, you figure it out for yourself.)

NY Giants (+3) at Philadelphia
The one thing I can predict about this game with relative certainty is that it’s gonna be a ton of fun to watch. Yeah, the Eagles have dropped a couple more games than the Giants (and consequently need a win here to have any real hope in the division), but these teams are incredibly evenly matched. Both play well on both sides of the ball. Both come in with a giveaway/takeaway differential of +6 (which ties them with Chicago for best in the NFC and fourth best in the league). And both are looking to build on a three-game win streak. It’s tempting to go with the home team, which also happens to be the team that needs a win more. But I’m not doing that. I’m going with the squad with the balanced offense. That’s the Giants. I’m looking for New Jersey to take this one by a field goal.

San Francisco (+10) at Arizona
What part of his anatomy will Mike Singletary be showing his players this week? For what it’s worth, Mike, I’d go for something below the knees. That way, the guys won’t have to peel themselves off the turf to get a look. Cards by 14.

This could be setting up as an upside-down week. Midseason doldrums setting in. Teams starting to feel like they know who they are and who their opponents are, and going into games feeling like they ought to win. Road teams giving way too many points. It all points to a distinct possibility that we’ll all be back to shaking our heads in bewilderment come Monday morning. Or possibly not. Here’s what you might possibly expect or not expect.

NY Jets (+5.5) at Buffalo
This game is way more evenly matched than the line suggests. And given the fact that the Bills are dealing with some key injuries, I won’t be at all surprised if the Jets steal a victory. But I can’t pick it that way. Not with the amazing interception machine that Brett Favre has become staring at a game that the Jets almost have to win. The Bills secondary has hardly led the league in picks this season, but I’m willing to bet they pluck at least two balls out of the air this weekend. And I’m guessing that makes the difference. Buffalo by a point.

Detroit (+12.5) at Chicago
You’ll know for sure that it’s upside-down week if the Lions manage a win here. If it’s rightside-up week, the Bears win by something along the lines of three touchdowns.

Jacksonville (-8) at Cincinnati
The Jaguars, who couldn’t find a way to beat Cleveland at home a week ago, are in the same boat as the Colts: finished in their division and needing to go no worse than 7-2 through the rest of the season to have any hope of securing a wild card berth. They certainly can’t afford to be the team against which the Bungles finally get off the schneid. And you have to expect they won’t be. That said, until they start showing a good bit more consistency, I’m not taking Jacksonville to beat anybody by eight points. Jags by three.

Baltimore (+1.5) at Cleveland
The Browns’ recent successes notwithstanding, I’m fairly confident that the Ravens are the better team in this game. But they’re not better by enough to overcome Joe Flacco’s habit of throwing the ball to opposing DBs. Not on the road, anyhow. Cleveland by one.

Tampa Bay (-9) at Kansas City
Quick, name a player you think could potentially come up big for Kansas City in this game. You see what I’m saying? Bucs by 13.

Houston (+4.5) at Minnesota
Two things the Houston Texans can’t do: Hold on to the ball and keep opposing running backs out of the end zone. Now, the Vikings aren’t so good with the turnovers, either, but that’s a problem they mostly have when they throw the ball, something they likely won’t have to do much of in this game. Minnesota by seven.

Arizona (-3) at St. Louis
Apparently Steven Jackson is just healthy enough to play. That means St. Louis should be able to keep this just close enough to make it a push against the spread.

Green Bay (+5) at Tennessee
I decided how I was picking this game while watching the Titans put the Colts away on Monday night. Yeah, Tennessee looked impressive in that game. The Titans defense should set them up to win most games — and they’ll probably do just that so long as their offense is able to focus on the run and wear opponents down (without putting Kerry Collins in a position to hurt them). But I don’t know how you play a game as intense both physically and emotionally as that one and recover in time to play effectively against a tough, non-conference opponent six days later. The Colts may not suffer a letdown (though they might) because of the fact that they’re hosting New England this week. The Titans, it seems to me, can hardly help it. Plus, they’ve got to lose sometime. So I’m taking the Packers even though I’m fairly certain the Titans are the better team. Green Bay by three.

Miami (+3.5) at Denver
Man, can the Broncos ever not stop the run. Denver gives up close to 155 yards a game and 5.4 a carry. That’s going to continue to hurt the team as the season wears on. It could, and probably should, hurt them pretty badly in this game. But I don’t know. The Broncos are at home. They’re coming off a bye. And they’re facing a defense that has no hope of slowing down their passing attack. I’ve gotta take Denver to win, though I don’t see them doing it by more than a field goal.

Dallas (+8.5) at NY Giants
I don’t know what to say about this game. The Cowboys are falling apart. The Giants aren’t. No one would ever have guessed four weeks ago that this would be the situation, but it is. New Jersey by 10.

Atlanta (-3) at Oakland
Can Oakland win this game? Sure. I mean, the Raiders are at home and all. Bring some pressure on the rookie QB, get him to make some key mistakes, and you’ve got a chance. Of course, I’ve seen no evidence that Oakland’s D can actually do those things, which could get in the way. And, you know, the bit about having no ability whatsoever to stop the run could pose a problem with Michael Turner in the game. But other than that, I think the Raiders’ only real problem in this game is the fact that they have no offense. So, yeah, the Raiders could win. If it’s upside-down week. Otherwise, it’s Atlanta by a touchdown.

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Seattle
You know, I sort of suspect the Eagles are gonna find a way to lose this game. But I can’t come up with a reason to believe myself. Philly is better than Seattle in every aspect of the game. And teams don’t lose as much traveling east to west as they do going the other way (for whatever reason — maybe it’s just easier to adjust to playing at 7 p.m. your time than at 10 a.m.) So I don’t have it in me to pick against the Eagles. At least not straight up. I’ll take Philadelphia to win and Seattle to cover.

New England (+6) at Indianapolis
This game isn’t about which team needs the win more. It’s not about whether the Patriots have been overachieving or whether the Colts have been underachieving. It’s not even about a weird encounter between two old rivals. It’s about one player: Peyton Manning, pure and simple. Because, look, the Colts defense, now with Bob Sanders but without Marlin Jackson ultimately isn’t healthier than it was six days ago, and now it’s playing on short rest. And while Matt Cassel still isn’t Tom Brady (nor is he going to be), he’s unquestionably growing as a quarterback and he’s certainly been playing better football than Kerry Collins. (And say what you will about the difference between New England’s and Tennessee’s run offenses, the difference is 15 yards per game and .1 yards per carry, which is to say statistically insignificant.) Of course, there’s no question but that New England’s defense doesn’t stack up with Tennessee’s. But the Patriots’ defensive front has played extremely well of late, bringing the kind of pressure it takes to make up for the unit’s weaknesses in the secondary. And with Indy’s problems on the O line, you can rest assured the Pats are gonna get after Manning. On the other hand, you can also rest assured that there are gonna be opportunities for Peyton, if he can get his quick release going, to find some open receivers. And there’s the central question: Will Manning play like the Peyton Manning of old, or like the guy who sat on the sideline looking like he’d seen his life flash before his eyes in the second half in Tennessee Monday night? If it’s the former, the Colts should be able to pull out a victory and keep their season alive. If it’s the latter, the Patriots have a very good shot of putting the last nail in Indy’s coffin. I’ve seen more of the latter than the former so far this season, and I can’t come up with any good reason that I should expect otherwise here. New England by three.

Pittsburgh (+2) at Washington
No. Sorry. I still haven’t bought in on the Pittsburgh thing. Of course, I haven’t bought in on Washington either, which kind of makes this game a giant headache for me. In the end, I’ve gotta take the balanced team over the one with the great defense and the lackluster offense, especially since the balanced squad is at home. Washington by three.

Yeah, OK, this all makes sense to me now. I mean, it must. I went 12-2 straight up last week. And one of the two games I picked wrong, I lost by way of a 57-yard field goal in overtime. (And the other one involved the Rams beating the Cowboys, which is something I wouldn’t even pick in retrospect. Like, literally, if you were to ask me today, “Do you think the Rams will have beaten the Cowboys last Sunday?” I’d probably say, “Shit, no. How stupid do you think I am?”) So, you know, I’m feeling good. That should last about another two days. Here’s what not to expect.

Oakland (+6.5) at Baltimore
Hey, Ravens D, can I make a request: How about you put this week’sbounty on Al Davis? Baltimore by 10.

Arizona (+4.5) at Carolina
I’m not sure which of these teams I’d pick on a neutral field. But they’re not playing on one. They’re playing in Charlotte. And last I checked, the Cardinals weren’t doing too well with the traveling to the Eastern Time Zone thing. Panthers by three.

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Dallas
Man, the mighty NFC East suddenly isn’t looking so damned mighty, is it? It looks to me like the South might be a tougher division. And while I expect things to change once things settle down in Dallas (and once the Cowboys get healthy), the Bucs look like a tougher team to me at this point. Plus, I’m fairly confident that Jon Gruden knows Brad Johnson’s weaknesses. The key stat here, to my mind, is the gap between the Bucs’ +4 giveaway/takeaway differential and the Cowboys’ -6. That’s a pretty major difference, and one that I don’t think is gonna change much based on who’s calling the defensive plays for Dallas. Tampa by four.

Washington (-7.5) at Detroit
Yeah, Washington hasn’t looked all that impressive lately, but playing Detroit is usually a pretty reliable cure for that. Native Americans by 17.

Buffalo (-1.5) at Miami
You can sometimes get away with trickery for a game or two, but as was made manifest a week ago, running a college offense in the NFL doesn’t work over the long term. Banged up though they may be, the Bills still manage to win here by no less than a field goal.

St. Louis (+7.5) at New England
For a while, I was thinking this game might prove to be a test of Bill Belichick’s defensive philosophy, which is to take away what an opponent does best. New England’s run D has been a tad spotty so far this season (not bad, but not great) and if Jim Haslett has brought anything unique to the Rams, it’s been a realization that his team features perhaps the league’s best running back. But it appears Steven Jackson won’t be 100 percent for this game. And that spells trouble for the Rams, especially if their run D, which has been significantly worse than spotty, can’t stop the Patriots’ plan C running attack. New England by 13.

San Diego (-3) vs. New Orleans (at Wembley Stadium, London)
Obviously, not having Reggie Bush on the field is gonna hurt the Saints. Bush makes it difficult for New Orleans’ opponents to put effective defensive game plans in place. But, you know, I’ve seen San Diego fail to put effective defensive game plans in place for a lot of teams that didn’t include Reggie Bush this season and I’m not sure why I should believe that’s gonna change in a game that comes at the end of a very wide-ranging two-week road trip. I suspect Deuce McAllister will fare well enough against San Diego’s lackluster D to give Drew Brees the room he needs to keep the ball moving and put a bunch of points on the board. I’m taking the Saints to win this one straight up.

Kansas City (+12.5) at NY Jets
Larry Johnson isn’t the only Kansas City player who’s sorry. Jets by 14.

Atlanta (+8.5) at Philadelphia
I’ve got this nagging feeling in my gut that Atlanta is somehow gonna pull off an upset. Can’t find any data to support that feeling, though. In fact, pretty much everything I look at tells me this is Philadelphia’s game to lose. The biggest factor working against my gut is that while the Falcons offense gets most of the job done on the ground (Atlanta gets nearly half its yards and more than half its TDs with its run game) the Eagles D is hard to run against, and harder still to score rushing touchdowns against. So I’ve decided not to trust my gut on this one. I’m looking for the Falcons to cover, but I’m taking the Eagles straight up. I hope I don’t end up regretting it.

Cleveland (+6.5) at Jacksonville
And so the Browns season and Romeo Crennel’s head coaching career come to a close. I’m not even thinking much about this one. I’m just taking the Jags and giving the points.

Cincinnati (+10) at Houston
Sooner of later the Bengals are gonna fall ass-backward into a victory. But it’s not happening this week. Texans take it straight up. It’s a push with the points.

NY Giants (+2.5) at Pittsburgh
I haven’t done the research to back it up, but I’d be willing to wager that the vast majority of mid-season games billed as “Super Bowl previews” ultimately aren’t. This one probably won’t be, either. And if I had to predict which one of these teams won’t be on the field in Tampa February 1, I’d probably have to go with Pittsburgh. It’s just very hard for me to see a Steelers team that is already banged up surviving eight more weeks of attrition and continuing to win most of its games. It’s also very hard to me to believe that Ben Roethlisberger’s unique talent for making bad decisions won’t catch up to his team sooner or later. And this week is as good a time for that to begin as any. The Steelers have a great defense. But so to the Giants. And the fact is, the Giants are a much better offensive football team than the Steelers, while Pittsburgh is only slightly better on D than the Giants. I like New Jersey here. And I like them to win by a touchdown.

Seattle (+5) at San Francisco
At least Mike Singletary will always be able to say his first game as head coach was a win. And that’s something. Niners win. Seahawks cover.

Indianapolis (+3.5) at Tennessee
On one hand, it’s all but impossible for me to believe the Colts could be effectively eliminated in AFC South race at the end of week eight. On the other, it’s entirely impossible for me to believe Indy’s faltering offense will be effective against Tennessee’s stout D, or that the Colts’ D will have any luck slowing down the Titans’ running game. Indy’s only hope is to get out to a 14-point lead and force Kerry Collins to try to beat them with his arm. That’s something Peyton Manning’s team ought to be able to do. But thus far this season I’ve seen no evidence they can actually pull it off. Titans win a low-scoring game by four.

Normally, by week seven you can start to get a handle on the NFL. You know which teams are really good, which are really awful and, more important, you’ve started to get a sense of how the mass of teams in the middle are likely to stack up against each other one-on-one. Not this season. This season any team can be the best in the league in any given week. And any team can be the worst. And anyone who claims to know which is which is either seriously deluded or an abject liar. So why do I keep making predictions? I don’t know. Maybe I think I might get a bunch right one week and get to spend a day or two thinking I’m a genius. Maybe it’s some weird form of self-flagellation. (“You will pick. And you will be mostly wrong. And you will be frustrated. And you will know that you deserve it. And maybe next time you’ll think twice before you order the veal, you heartless bastard.”) Or it could just be that I’m in this shit up to my neck already, so I figure why not just go ahead and drown already. Let’s go with that and move on to this week’s litany of highly questionable pseudo-analyses.

San Diego (-1) at Buffalo
I’ll be honest: I haven’t been able to get a handle on this game. I mean, I think I understand why the Chargers are favored, but I’m not entirely sure the reasoning behind it holds up. The Bills, while they’ve done many things well this season, have had difficulty holding on to the ball. They come into this game with a giveaway/takeaway differential of -3. The Chargers are at +4. That’s a swing of seven turnovers in the Chargers’ favor. And we all know that if you turn the ball over against good teams, you tend to lose games. Beyond that, I suppose it only makes sense to give some weight to recent indications that that Chargers may not be as uneven as they looked in early going and that the Bills may not be quite as formidable as they appeared. But I’m not sure there’s enough evidence there to draw any solid conclusions. Ultimately, I see these two teams as fairly evenly matched. So the question becomes, do I like the West Coast team that’s traveled across three time zones for an early game or do I like the team that has a habit of coughing the ball up? The answer, unfortunately for me, is neither. I’m going with Buffalo, because they’re at home, but I know the mere fact that I’m picking them is probably a sure sign that the Bills are destined to lose.

New Orleans (+3) at Carolina
As stout as the Panthers’ defense is, I don’t believe it can effectively shut down the Saints’ high-powered offense. I do, however, believe Carolina can use its running game to control the ball and keep Drew Brees and company off the field, which is almost as good and just as effective. Panthers win it straight up. It’s a push with the points.

Minnesota (+3.5) at Chicago
Neither team should count on picking up a lot of yards on the ground in this game. But the Bears might not need to. Chicago should be able to accomplish just enough against Minnesota’s pass D to get the job done. Bears win. Vikings cover.

Pittsburgh (-10) at Cincinnati
I don’t know what I like less, the idea of picking a seriously banged up road team that’s giving double digits or the idea of taking the Cincinnati Bengals under any circumstances. My gut tells I’m screwed either way. My head tells me to hedge. Steelers win, Bengals cover.

Tennessee (-8) at Kansas City
Part of me thinks the Chiefs will be lucky to put up a field goal in this game. Part of me thinks the Chiefs will have a little luck. Tennessee, 24-3.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Miami
Yeah, you know what? I’m just not at the point yet where I’m willing to buy in to the idea that the Dolphins have become a good team. I might regret that. But at the moment, I’m looking at the Ravens’ D and thinking Baltimore wins 14-10.

San Francisco (+11) at NY Giants
I don’t know about you, but I’ve got this weird feeling that the Giants may have some frustrations that they’re looking to take out on someone. New Jersey by 17.

Dallas (-7) at St. Louis
Am I mistaken, or don’t the Cowboys run, in essence, the Norv Turner variation on the Air Coryell offense (which is largely a permutation of the Bill Walsh offense)? And didn’t Brad Johnson play under Norv Turner? Moreover, didn’t Johnson earn a ring as the starter for a team running another variation of the West Coast system? OK, so if I’m right about all that (and I’m pretty sure I am), I can’t help but wonder why the Cowboys, who face one of the worst teams in the league (regardless of what they accomplished a week ago the Rams are still terrible) are so much as considering starting Tony Romo who has a broken finger on his throwing hand. Because Romo wants to play? Because the fans want him to play? Because Jerry Jones wants him to play? Here’s a thought: Maybe forget about the peripheral nonsense and focus on doing what’s best for the team in the long term. Or is that just something the Cowboys don’t do anymore? It’s crazy. But not nearly as crazy as you’d have to be to put money on this game. The Cowboys win by seven if Johnson starts, three if it’s Romo.

Detroit (+9.5) at Houston
The Lions continue their march toward perfection. Don’t worry, though, Lions fans. Your team is certain to make the most of the picks it acquired in the Roy Williams trade, right? I mean, what team in football could possibly pick twice in the first round — and then again at the top of the second — and not improve dramatically? Oh, yeah. Uh, right. Sorry about that. Texans by 14.

Indianapolis (-1.5) at Green Bay
If this game were being played a week from now, I might have some remote hope of picking intelligently. One more game and I’ll have a sense of whether the Colts really are turning it around and getting their season on track. But this game isn’t being played a week from now. So that’s me guessing. Just pure guessing. And, as usual, when I have to guess, I guess in favor of the home team. (And this, folks, is just one of the many pieces of evidence you can glean from this blog to support the case that I am not a professional football expert. I’m like the experts in that I have no goddamned idea what I’m talking about. But I’m unlike them in that I admit it. So that’s exciting, isn’t it?)

NY Jets (-3) at Oakland
Man, firing Lane Kiffin sure did solve all the Raiders’ problems, didn’t it? (Certainly solved the problem of Oakland scoring all those pesky points, anyhow.) Jets by 10.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Washington
The Native Americans may be banged up, possibility at some key positions, and they may have had a rather poor showing against a pitiful team in a week that saw Cleveland post its first good game of the season, but I’m a) not convinced the Browns can really have righted their ship so dramatically so quickly, and b) fairly certain Washington won’t drop two in a row at home (though I would have said the same about Indianapolis a few weeks back, so take my opinion for what little it’s worth). Washington by four.

Seattle (+11) at Tampa Bay
The good news for the ailing Seahawks is that backup quarterback Seneca Wallace might not be hurt bad enough to miss another start. That’s right, I said that’s the good news. So what’s the bad news? Well, pretty much everything else. I’m taking the Bucs and giving the points.

Denver (+3) at New England
Seems to me, we’re gonna learn a lot about Matt Cassel in this game. Denver’s defense has shown no ability thus far this season to bring pressure up the middle. Assuming that trend continues, Cassel should have all the time he ought to need to go through his reads, find the open man and make the throw. And while Cassel’s still very inexperienced as an NFL starter, you have hope he’s at a point where he can perform at home under favorable defensive conditions. If he can, the Patriots are in this game. If he can’t, they’re toast. The Broncos are a 4-2 team for one reason: Their offense scores lots and lots of points. And while it only scores through the air about half the time, Denver’s offense sets up most of its scores by moving downfield quickly using the pass. And it’s pretty much a given at this point that the Patriots D is going to surrender scores to a pass-oriented offense. That may yet turn around, but it probably won’t be in this game. Nor should the Denver D’s habit of giving up lots of points change, though, so long as Cassel can do his job. I expect a high-scoring affair that’s still in contention as Tuesday morning approaches. I’m gonna look for New England to come out ahead, if only because the Pats are at home and very much in need of a win, but I don’t think they’ll do it by three. More like one, I’d guess, 31-30.

Some of the easy games this week aren’t really as easy as they look. Here’s what not to expect.

Chicago (-2.5) at Atlanta
Look, we can talk all day about the Chicago defense picking on poor, inexperienced Matt Ryan. And it would make sense to do that. Hell, it’s what all the experts are focusing on, so there’s gotta be something to it. But what if the Bears don’t get the chance to make this about Ryan? What if the Falcons are able to settle into comfort zone with their running game and keep the pressure off the kid? And what if Chicago’s offense doesn’t help out by building a lead and forcing Atlanta to play catch-up? I ask these questions because I don’t see any of those situations as what ifs so much as inevitabilities. I see this game as competitive on the scoreboard through the first three quarters, but expect to see a growing disparity in time of possession — in Atlanta’s favor. And I anticipate Chicago’s D wearing down and Atlanta pulling away in the fourth quarter and winning by at least a touchdown. But as far as I know, no one’s ever accused me of knowing what I’m talking about.

Miami (+3) at Houston
At least one of these questions will have been answered by the time this game is over: Is Miami really better than anyone suspected? And is Houston somehow pathologically incapable of winning a football game? I’m guessing we end up with a no on the latter, and a continued “maybe, who knows?” on the former. Texans by a field goal.

Baltimore (+4.5) at Indianapolis
I’m taking the Colts straight up for one reason only. I simply can’t see Indy starting 0-3 at home. But that’s a lousy way to pick a football game. The fact of the matter is that the Indianapolis O line is gonna have a very, very difficult time keeping Baltimore’s pass rush away from Peyton Manning and the Indy defense is gonna have a very, very difficult time slowing down Baltimore’s ground game. Assuming Manning’s on his feet for the last two minutes, the Colts win by a point.

Detroit (+13) at Minnesota
The good news for Michael Crabtree (or maybe Jeremy Maclin) is that Matt Millen’s departure probably means the Lions won’t be drafting a wide receiver at the top of the first round this year. The bad news for Michael Oher (or maybe Curtis Painter) is that for all intents and purposes the Lions are on the clock. Vikings by 14.

Oakland (+7.5) at New Orleans
Teams have a way of over-performing in their first game under a new coach. That’s a given. And, reportedly, the Raiders are planning to let JaMarcus Russell air the ball out a good bit more. That could prove effective against a New Orleans defense that surrenders 245 yards per game through the air. So, you know, the Raiders could potentially make this a game. But they’re not gonna win it, because there’s no chance their D keeps the Saints out of the end zone. New Orleans by four.

Cincinnati (+6) at NY Jets
At what point, Mike, does continuing to employ a coach who is a) clearly incompetent and b) apparently happy to field a team of whiners and thugs, because you’re too cheap to cut him loose become an insult to the memory of your father? For whatever little it’s worth, I’d say it happened about two years ago. Jets by 13.

Carolina (+1.5) at Tampa Bay
This game’s a pure a coin toss as I’ve ever seen. Both teams have balanced offenses that can put up points. And while Carolina’s probably a bit stronger on D, no single measurable is compelling enough to call a sure difference maker. I’d be tempted to hang my hat on home field if it weren’t for the fact that Carolina has demonstrated an ability to win in Tampa. So I’m literally letting a coin decide it. And I’m going with the Panthers straight up.

St. Louis (+14) at Washington
It’s official. I’ve come around to believing the Redskins are for real. That means they’re certain to start losing games. But not until they face a real NFL team, which won’t happen until week nine at the earliest. Washington by 17.

Jacksonville (+3) at Denver
Let’s save some time. Let’s pretend I went through all the stuff we all already know and I’ll just get to the heart of the matter: At this point in the season, I think the odds that Denver’s offense will be able to keep it in high gear for one more game are better than the odds that Jacksonville’s defense will finally kick in. Denver by touchdown.

Dallas (-5) at Arizona
So now we know the Cardinals offense can indeed score like crazy with or without Anquan Boldin. Or at least we know they can pull it off if their opponents keep turning the ball over. And given Tony Romo’s uncanny ability to help opponents stay in games, I’m expecting the home team at least to be able to keep this one competitive. I’ll take the Cowboys straight up, but I wouldn’t give more than three.

Philadelphia (-5) at San Francisco
I have to believe the Eagles are better than their record. And I have to believe 2-3 in the NFC East is more impressive than 2-3 in the NFC West. Philadelphia by seven.

Green Bay (+2) at Seattle
I’m expecting Julius Jones to be a major producer for my fantasy team this week, which I guess means I’m expecting Jones to have a big day for his reality football team, too. Because the Packers simply have no ability to stop the run. Seahawks by four behind a big day for Julius.

New England (+6) at San Diego
Look, I’m willing to concede that the Chargers should be favored in this game. They’re at home. Their backs are up against the wall. They absolutely hate the Patriots. The Pats have been away from home for a week. And Tom Brady is recovering from surgery. But six points? Seriously? The Chargers are six points better than the Pats even though LT’s turf toe is clearly a much bigger problem than he and his team would like to admit? Six points even though the Chargers are looking more and more like a Norv Turner-coached team? Six points even though Randy Moss, Wes Welker et al will be going against a Chargers defense that has surrendered 266 yards a game and 10 passing TDs this season? (San Diego’s defense hasn’t exactly excelled against the run either, by the way. Attrition and sub-par coaching clearly are taking their toll in San Diego) I’m not buying it. In fact, I’m so not buying it that I’m not only taking the Pats to cover; I’m taking them to win it straight up.

NY Giants (-7.5) at Cleveland
Do the Browns need their season to be over before they make a move to Brady Quinn? And if the answer’s yes, then what constitutes over? Will 1-4 get it done. Or are we gonna have to wait until they’re 1-9 and facing Houston? Whatever. Giants by 14.